Conflict Weekly Note

CWA # 2004
Conflict Weekly Note
The “Forgotten” South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
Conflict Weekly #322, 06 March 2026

Akshath Kaimal
6 March 2026

Photo Source: AFP

In the news
On 01 March, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said that dozens of civilians had been killed in northern South Sudan over the previous 48 hours. According to the mission, a group of unidentified armed youth attacked Abiemnom County headquarters in the Ruweng Administrative Area, near the border with Sudan.

On 03 March, Ruweng Administrative Area's Information Minister James Monyluak Mijok said that the death toll from the attack on the county headquarters had risen to 178. He alleged that the attack came from the neighbouring Unity state and was linked to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO). The SPLA-IO denied any involvement and accused the government of politicising the violence.

Issues at large
First, the peace agreement and its challenges.
In 2013, two years after gaining independence, South Sudan descended into a civil war that lasted five years. While the conflict is rooted in deeper intercommunal tensions between the Dinka and Nuer communities, it took a political turn between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader, Riek Machar. A peace agreement, called the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS), was reached in Ethiopia, with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mediating talks. The agreement mandated a unity government, a national army comprising all warring factions, a new constitution and preparations for national elections in 2022. While a unity government was formed, the power-sharing arrangement was consistently strained, with incidents of intercommunal violence and clashes between government forces, ethnic militias and opposition groups taking place in several parts of the country. Implementation was slow and elections were postponed, creating animosity within the unity government, with the opposition SPLA-IO accusing the Kiir of consolidating power.

Second, a brief note on the actors.
The fighting is taking place between the South Sudan’s People’s Defence Forces, headed by President Salva Kiir, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO), the opposition party led by his long-time rival, First Vice President Riek Machar. Kiir has been president since 2011 and aims to consolidate power and fend off any threats to his rule, while Machar and his party want a share of the executive and the militias they support to be incorporated into the army under the security reforms. The UN has accused both of “systematically dismantling” the agreement multiple times.

Third, an uptick in violence over the last year.
The recent wave of violence can be traced back to the White Army’s attack on a military base in March 2025. Following the attack, the UN attempted to rescue government troops from the base before facing fire from the militia in an attack that left several troops dead. Since then, the violence has left more than 5100 people dead or injured, a 40 per cent increase over 2024, according to the UN. The UN also reported that since government and opposition forces launched attacks on residential areas in December, more than 280,000 people have fled their homes. 189 civilians have been killed in January alone, a 45 per cent increase over the previous month. Additionally, attacks on aid organisations and camps have also increased, with the latest incident involving 26 aid workers from Doctors Without Borders going missing following a government airstrike on a hospital in February. An attack on a World Food Programme (WFP) convoy in Upper Nile State in February also forced the UN to suspend food aid operations in the state.

Fourth, limited international attention.
The UN terms instability in South Sudan as the “forgotten conflict,” reflecting the lack of international attention. The UN has been calling for a return to the peace agreement and for the violence to stop. Despite its repeated warning that South Sudan is at risk of sliding back into a full-scale civil war, the international engagement has been limited, for two primary reasons. First, geopolitical priorities have shifted, with wars in Ukraine and Gaza gaining attention, and the escalating violence in neighbouring Sudan. Second, the limited economic leverage and strategic relevance of South Sudan could also be diverting attention elsewhere. Despite the US-UK-Norway joint statement last year, and meetings within the African Union and IGAD, the lack of robust enforcement mechanisms impedes their influence.

In perspective
First, the dangers of another civil war. The increase in violence over the last year and the arrest of opposition leaders, like Machar, risks conflict escalation. The presence of UN peacekeeping forces has not stopped the fighting.

Second, the humanitarian situation is set to get worse. According to INGO reports, around 25 per cent of South Sudan’s Gross National Income comes from international aid and over 70 per cent of the population relies on humanitarian assistance, with a vast majority of them being food insecure. The rising violence risks expanding displacement across the country and further exacerbating the country’s humanitarian crisis.

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