The World This Week

CWA # 2008
The World This Week
Canadian PM's India Visit I Nepal Elections and its Political Reset
The World This Week #347, Vol 8, No 09, 08 March 2026

Global Politics Team
8 March 2026

Photo Source: BBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters

Canada’s PM Mark Carney’s India Visit:
Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

What happened?
On 02 March, India and Canada issued a joint statement outlining new initiatives to expand collaboration and innovation between the two countries.

On the same day, the visit resulted in the signing of six agreements and several memoranda of understanding (MoUs), which include critical minerals, energy collaboration, uranium supply for civil nuclear energy, cultural exchanges, education, and research partnerships.

During the visit, two PMs noted that strengthened institutional engagement would support expanded bilateral energy trade, including liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, refined petroleum products, potash, and uranium supply offtake. In this regard, they welcomed the conclusion of a CAD 2.6 billion commercial agreement between Cameco and the Department of Atomic Energy for the long-term supply of uranium to support India’s civil nuclear energy generation, clean energy transition objectives, and long-term energy security.

Canada reaffirmed its plans to expand heavy oil export infrastructure and LNG supplies to the Indo-Pacific market, with Canada’s stated goal of producing 50 million tonnes of LNG per year by 2030 and up to 100 million tonnes by 2040.

What is the background?
1. Increasing economic engagement and industry collaboration
Trade and investment between India and Canada have grown steadily in recent years. According to Global Affairs Canada, bilateral merchandise trade between India and Canada increased from roughly CAD 6.6 billion in 2015 to about CAD 12-13 billion by 2024-2025. Canada exports commodities to India, including lentils and other pulses, potash fertilisers, wood products, and uranium used in civil nuclear energy. India’s exports to Canada include pharmaceutical products, textiles, machinery, organic chemicals, and information technology services. Cooperation between the two countries has expanded beyond trade to include clean energy, nuclear energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, higher education, and research collaboration. These sectors remain key areas of bilateral activity.

2. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations
India and Canada have spent several years discussing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to enhance bilateral economic relations. CEPA is a proposed free trade agreement aimed at reducing tariffs, improving market access for goods and services, and facilitating investment between the two countries. The areas to be discussed in the agreement will include agricultural, manufacturing, and service cooperation, as well as technology collaboration. Nevertheless, the negotiation process has been slow, and the deal has not yet been materialized.

3. Overcoming the diplomatic tensions since 2023
In September 2023, the relationship between the two countries touched a low, when the Canadian government charged India with the assassination of a Sikh separatist activist in Canada. India denied the charges and blamed Canada for letting extremist groups associated with the Khalistan movement run their operations in its territory. The tensions led to a diplomatic crisis, with both countries expelling top diplomats and closing visa operations.

Under the new Canadian government, the two governments have sought to reconnect over the past year by holding meetings at international forums and conducting diplomatic consultations. These relations contributed to the reopening of economic cooperation and trade negotiations, which laid the groundwork for a new bilateral dialogue between the two countries.

What does it mean?
First, a bid to stabilise diplomatic relations. The visit indicates both governments' efforts to restore working relationships following the tensions that emerged in 2023. By focusing on collaboration in economic areas, technology relationships, and trade talks, both parties appear to be concentrating on areas where they share common interests. However, disagreements have played out politically in the past.

Second, a new impetus to trade talks. It is possible to conclude that economic cooperation is a key part of the relationship, as evidenced by the decision to expedite negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. In the event of its realisation, the agreement would widen trade flows and enhance market access for businesses in sectors such as agriculture, services, and manufacturing.

Third, increasing collaboration in key economic domains. The focus on critical minerals, clean energy, and technological cooperation is tied to broader global trends, as countries pursue partnerships in new industries and the energy transition. Collaboration across sectors may strengthen economic relations and support industrial and technological development in both countries

Nepal Elections 2026:
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
Sreemaya Nair

What happened?
On 05 March, Nepal held elections for the lower house (House of Representatives, HoR) after the Gen Z protest in September 2025 that overthrew the government.  The polling began at 0700 hrs. and concluded at 1700 hrs. A total of 18,903,689 voters were eligible to participate in the election, with the voter turnout estimated at around 60 per cent. As many as 3,484 individuals from 68 political parties and independents had registered their candidacies for the election.

On 08 March, according to media reports, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is leading the results. It has won around 116 seats so far and is leading in a few remaining constituencies. The Nepali Congress has won 17 seats so far, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) has won seven seats and the Communist Party of Nepal has secured won five seats so far. The final tally is likely to be announced early next week.

What is the background?
1. A brief note on the House of Representatives (HoR)
The HoR is one of the two houses of Nepal's federal Parliament, the other being the National Assembly. It consists of 275 members: 165 are elected from single-member constituencies using a First-Past-The-Post voting system, and 110 are elected through a proportional representation system, in which voters select political parties. Voters receive two ballots, one for the constituency candidate and one for a political party.

2. A brief note on the elections, and the Gen Z protests in September 2025
On 08 September, tens of thousands of youths flooded the streets of Kathmandu to protest against the blanket ban on 26 social media apps; 77 lives were lost, including 19 youths in school and college uniforms, who were protesting in front of the Parliament. On the same day, the then-prime minister KP Sharma Oli was forced to flee under army protection. Nepal’s Gen-Z activists used the Discord platform to hold large online discussions and polls on political reforms and leadership. An interim government was subsequently formed under Sushila Kargi, a former Chief Justice. Subsequently, she became Nepal’s first female PM and oversaw the election.

3. A short note on the key players
The main competition has been between the Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML), and the newer Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) led by Balendra Shah (Balen).  Balendra Shah is the former mayor of Kathmandu, a former rapper and a structural engineer by profession, who is competing against veteran leaders. The proportional vote count, now covering 26,17,844 votes entered nationwide, reinforces the sweep. The RSP has received 13,16,185 proportional votes, which is more than the combined total of every other party in the race. The NC is second with 4,48,614, followed by CPN-UML with 3,59,956, the Nepali Communist Party (NCP) with 1,73,208, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party with 94,489, and the Shram Sanskriti Party with 54,813.

4. Key electoral issues
Some of the most important electoral issues include the following: corruption, unemployment, and governance, prompting authorities to enforce silence-period regulations, alcohol bans, and media restrictions to safeguard fair polling.

What does it mean?
First, the early results suggest a significant change in Nepal’s political landscape with the RSP leading. This reflects growing public dissatisfaction with established parties and signaling the rise of a new generation of leadership, symbolized by figures like Balendra Shah.

Second, a potential shift toward reform-oriented governance in Nepal. RSP and other new movements challenge traditional political dominance in Nepal.  This election, therefore, represents more than a routine political process, it reflects changing voter priorities, youth political mobilisation, and demand for accountability.

About the authors
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha is an undergraduate student double majoring in BSc Clinical Psychology and BA Political Science at the School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru.
Sreemaya Nair is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St Joseph's University.

TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world

Adwitiyo Das, Aishal Yousuf, Aishwarya D Pai, Akshath Kaimal, Brighty Ann Sarah, Kirsten Coelho, Lekshmi MK, R Preetha, Sakshi Yadav, Sreemaya Nair, Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha, Tonica Sharon C, Vishal Manish M, Yesasvi Koganti

CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
China: Beijing sets economic growth target below 5 per cent
On 05 March, according to media reports, China set its 2026 GDP growth target in a band of 4.5 to 5 per cent. This was the first time in more than three decades that this has fallen below 5 per cent. Premier Li Qiang announced the goal in his work report at the opening of the National People’s Congress in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, alongside a central fiscal deficit target of about 4 per cent of GDP for a second consecutive year and a planned 7 per cent rise in defence spending, as he warned of rising “difficulties and challenges” at home and “geopolitical risks” abroad. According to reports, Li cited a deep property downturn, “acute” imbalances between strong supply and weak demand resulting in tougher conditions for people to secure employment and earn more. At the same time, officials have highlighted resilience through export diversification and higher R&D spending. The growth band, analysts say, gives policymakers more flexibility and signals fewer aggressive short-term stimulus measures as Beijing prioritises its longer?term goal of reaching a “mid?level” developed-economy income by 2035 and, additionally, achieving “high?quality growth” in advanced sectors such as chips and artificial intelligence.

Japan and the US: Tokyo seeks assurance that its goods be exempted from potential 10 per cent tariffs
On 07 March, Japan's Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington. During the meeting, Akazawa urged that Japanese goods be exempted from a potential 10 per cent blanket tariff that could raise the rates to 15 per cent.  "We requested that Japan's treatment under the new tariff rules would not become less favorable than what was agreed last year," Akazawa stated. He added that they reaffirmed the  commitment to the 2025 trade deal, which formalised a baseline 15 tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. To stabilize this partnership, Tokyo is set to leverage a massive USD 550 billion investment pledge, with an initial USD 36 billion already being invested in energy and minerals projects. As a part of the second round of deals, Tokyo and Washington are working to include a landmark nuclear project involving Westinghouse. Japan aims to secure stability for trade before Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Washington visit on 19 March.

SOUTH & SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Myanmar: Naypyidaw signs MoU with Beijing to host gems exhibition
On 02 March, The Irrawaddy reported that Myanmar’s junta has signed a MoU with China to jointly organise a gems exhibition in northern Shan State, highlighting the regime’s growing reliance on Beijing to sustain its troubled gemstone industry. The agreement, signed on 24 February, aims to expand cooperation in the gemstone trade, curb smuggling, and strengthen environmental coordination. China has long been the primary buyer of Myanmar’s jadeite, with stones flowing across the Muse Ruili border into major processing hubs in Yunnan and Guangdong.

Myanmar: EU reaffirms support for Myanmar at Pre-Thingyan event in Brussels
On 03 March, Mizzima reported on the Myanmar Pre-Thingyan series, held on 2 March in Brussels, which brought together EU officials, academics, artists, and members of the Burmese diaspora to mark five years since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar. Organised under the European Union’s Myanmar Pre-Thingyan Food and Culture Week, the event highlighted the need to keep international attention on Myanmar’s ongoing crisis. Peteris Ustubs of the European Commission said the EU does not consider the recent elections in Myanmar to be free, fair or credible and reaffirmed continued humanitarian and development support, totalling EUR 710 million since 2021. He stressed the importance of defending human rights, supporting education and livelihoods, and strengthening civil society resilience. Erik Kurzweil of the European External Action Service echoed concerns over the military-led polls, saying the EU would not recognise or legitimise a process lacking democratic legitimacy. He underscored the need for unity among democratic forces and praised the Myanmar diaspora and independent media for keeping global attention on the crisis, calling for sustained solidarity, dialogue and engagement.

Bhutan: Thimphu receives international recognition as “Destination of the Year”
On 05 March, the Kuensel reported that Bhutan received international recognition in the world's leading travel trade show ITB Berlin in Germany on 04 March where the nation was named "Destination of the Year - Earthly Experiences" for its commitment to authentic and regenerative tourism. The Director of the Department of Tourism, Damcho Rinzin, received the PATWA Gold Award for Ecological Tourism (Himalayan Region) for promoting the region as a model destination for ecological and sustainable travel. He said the recognition reflects Bhutan's commitment to sustainable tourism and the responsibility to protect the country’s cultural and natural heritage and that Bhutan will continue to uphold high standards of sustainability while offering immersive travel experiences aligned with national values.

Nepal Elections: Rastriya Swatantra Party emerges as the leading party in the parliamentary election
On 08 March, according to media reports on Nepal’s parliamentary election, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) indicated a major victory. As per the ongoing vote count, the RSP has won around 116 seats so far and is leading in a few remaining constituencies. In contrast, the traditional political parties have performed poorly in the elections. The Nepali Congress has secured only 17 seats so far, while the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) has won seven seats, and the Communist Party of Nepal has secured around five to seven seats. As the final results are yet to be formally announced, the RSP’s sweeping lead suggests a major shift in Nepal’s political landscape.

The parliamentary elections in Nepal were held on 05 March to elect members of the House of Representatives. Polling took place across the country amid high voter participation, with counting beginning soon after voting concluded. The elections were widely seen as a test for the country’s traditional political parties following political unrest and public dissatisfaction in recent years. Early trends and the ongoing results indicate strong support for the RSP, reflecting growing public demand for political change and governance reforms.

Bangladesh: Dhaka seeks Beijing’s expanded support for the health sector
On 02 March, Dhaka Tribune reported that Health and Family Welfare Minister Sardar Md Sakhawat Hossain has sought enhanced cooperation from China to strengthen Bangladesh’s health sector, praising Beijing’s continued support and urging further collaboration in key areas. Speaking at a meeting with Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen, the minister requested assistance in supplying diagnostic kits and medical equipment, and accommodation facilities at the Bangladesh Medical University. He also expressed hope that China would fulfil its commitment to help construct a proposed 1,000-bed hospital in the country. Ambassador Yao assured that China stands ready to assist in building the hospital, whether as a general or specialised facility.

Bangladesh: Japan grants USD 3.2 million to UNFPA for Rohingya response
On 03 March, the Dhaka Tribune reported that the Government of Japan approved USD 3.2 million in funding to the United Nations Population Fund to support the Rohingya humanitarian response in Bangladesh. The two-year project will protect the health and rights of displaced women and adolescents in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char, sustaining sexual and reproductive health services and gender-based violence (GBV) support for refugees and host communities. With over one million Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar and a recent influx of around 150,000 people since 2024, funding shortages have strained services under the Joint Response Plan for 2025–2026. Japan’s contribution will help maintain 24-hour emergency obstetric care, GBV case management, and mental health support for about 180,000 beneficiaries. Since 2017, Japan has provided more than USD 250 million to the Rohingya response through UN agencies and NGOs, remaining a key partner in addressing the protracted crisis.

Bangladesh: Dhaka to explore ways to deepen bilateral ties with India
On 05 March, Dhaka Tribune reported that Bangladesh and India expressed optimism about expanding bilateral ties during a meeting between Prime Minister’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir and Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Kumar Verma in Dhaka. The Indian envoy paid a courtesy call on Kabir at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tejgaon, where the two sides discussed the existing friendly relations between Bangladesh and India and explored ways to strengthen cooperation on issues of mutual interest. They also exchanged views on the longstanding ties between the two countries and discussed regional stability, trade, connectivity, and development cooperation. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to advancing bilateral relations and working for the welfare of their peoples based on mutual respect, trust, and cooperation.

Maldives: Government establishes Special Cabinet Committee amid tensions in the Middle East; Daily tourist arrivals fall sharply amidst conflict in the Middle East
On 02 March, The Sun reported that President Mohamed Muizzu moved to create a Special Cabinet Committee on Middle East tensions. This was formed to coordinate and plan a national response to the escalating instability. The committee aims to monitor and respond to the crisis as required by developments. The committee comprises key ministries including foreign affairs, finance, economic development, defence and homeland security and transport. It seeks to implement joint measures to protect the interests of Maldivian citizens, overseas workers and also economic interests. The Maldivian economy relies on tourism, global trade routes, fuel prices and remittances.

On 04 March, The Sun reported that daily tourist arrivals to the Maldives dropped by around 50 per cent compared with recent weeks. This is due to ongoing flight cancellations and airport closures in the Middle East amid escalating tensions. Amongst inbound flights to the Maldives, the Middle East accounts for a large share of traffic. This raises concerns for the Maldives' tourism-dependent economy.

Sri Lanka: Surge in queues at fuel stations, as public anxiety increases amidst tensions in the Middle East; Naval rescue operation in progress after Iranian warship distress signal
On 03 March, the Daily Mirror reported a nationwide surge in queues at fuel stations, as the public became increasingly concerned about potential fuel shortages amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Motorists were reportedly lining up at petrol pumps, despite government reassurances that national stocks are ample until May 2026. The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation ( CPC) banned filling fuel into bottles and cans to prevent hoarding. The situation largely reflects apprehensions rooted in the 2022 fuel crisis which triggered mass protests and political upheaval.

In a separate development, on 04 March, the Daily Mirror reported that Sri Lanka launched a rescue operation after the Iranian naval vessel IRIS Dena issued a distress call and sank within Sri Lanka’s maritime search and rescue zone south of the island. The Sri Lankan Navy and Air Force deployed ships and aircraft to rescue the crew, who were then taken ashore for further medical attention. The incident occurred amidst heightened tensions in the Middle East. Authorities indicated that Sri Lanka will continue to monitor developments closely given the country’s strategic position along major shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean Region.

Pakistan: Islamabad urges calm in the Middle East; Government to take several measures amid Strait of Hormuz closure
On 02 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan spoke to the rulers of Jordan and Bahrain to offer support and urge restraint and dialogue as the violence across the Middle East entered its third day. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, PM Shehbaz Sharif held a telephone conversation with Jordan’s King Abdullah II to exchange views on the regional developments and recent escalations, which included attacks on Jordan and other regional countries. The PM expressed deep concern, urged restraint, and reaffirmed Pakistan’s solidarity with Jordan. The PM said he also spoke with Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa to convey Pakistan’s support and solidarity with the people of Bahrain. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar also spoke to his Omani and Iraqi counterparts and stressed the need for sustained efforts for peace and stability in the region.

Separately, on 05 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan is all set to take several measures to keep the markets liquid amid the drying out of trading activity following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The measures will include weekly petroleum price revisions, compensating oil companies for elevated insurance and import premiums, and fuel conservation measures like mandatory work-from-home for public and private sectors following a surge in petroleum prices. At present, Pakistan has both petrol and diesel stocks of over 5,00,000, enough for 25 days. Also, the Pakistani government has requested Saudi Arabia to provide oil supplies through an alternative Red Sea route. Pakistan’s petrol imports continue to be in a safe zone, but diesel imports remain at risk as Pakistan heavily relies on long-term supplies from Kuwait, and all those cargoes have to move through the Strait of Hormuz. Also, more than 20 per cent of global oil cargoes remain stuck inside the Strait of Hormuz, creating a shortage of ships available for diesel cargo.

Pakistan and Afghanistan War: 42 civilians killed in cross-border fighting, says the UN agency; Turkiye pledges to support the restoration of the ceasefire between Islamabad and Kabul
On 03 March, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported that 42 civilians had been killed and 104 wounded in Afghanistan in the ongoing clashes with Pakistan between 26 February and 02 March 2026. The civilian casualties were caused by airstrikes and indirect fire during cross-border clashes. UNAMA has called for an immediate halt to fighting and urged both sides to protect civilians and allow humanitarian access.

On 04 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan's PM, Shehbaz Sharif, held a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During which President Erdogan reaffirmed Turkiye’s support for Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, pledging to help re-establish the ceasefire through Turkiye-led initiatives. According to a post on X by the Turkish presidency, the two leaders discussed bilateral relations and regional and global issues. President Erdogan highlighted the importance of reactivating diplomacy in the wake of attacks on Iran. PM Sharif stated that he discussed with President Erdogan the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, further condemning Israel’s attack on Iran and the subsequent attacks on Gulf states. PM Sharif reiterated Pakistan’s solidarity with Iran and its readiness to support de-escalation efforts. According to Radio Pakistan, the two leaders stressed the need for maximum restraint to avoid further escalation of the situation.

Afghanistan: Pakistan begins effort to return Afghan refugees
On 04 March, The Guardian reported that several Afghan journalists who fled the Taliban regime are now in fear of being tracked down by Pakistani police and being sent back to Afghanistan. Richard Bennett, a UN special rapporteur, commented that returning would mean a “real risk of violent retaliatory attacks.” This development comes against the backdrop of the ongoing clash between the two nations, with both sides alleging the killing of civilians in military attacks. Multiple media employees who focused their work on reporting about human rights violations in Afghanistan are now scrambling to leave Pakistan. Reports show that many have been denied permission by Pakistani officials to board flights exiting the nation. Some have even been denied a stay at hotels due to their Afghan passports.

Afghanistan: UN raises alarm about conflict migration
On 05 March, Al Jazeera reported that a recent analysis by the United Nations has shown that nearly 66,000 people have been displaced due to the ongoing heated military exchange between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The report was brought out by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), a subsidiary of the UN, which has commented that there has been an escalation in “cross-border hostilities” which are having a “growing humanitarian impact on civilians…” The conflict at the Durand Line has resulted in several casualties, which both sides deny and also accuse each other of. The Taliban regime in Kabul has reiterated that the operation is in response to the air strikes conducted by Pakistan in late February.

India and Canada: Renew strategic ties with uranium supply agreement
On 02 March, India's PM Modi and Canada's PM Mark Caney held bilateral talks in New Delhi; the most significant outcome was the agreement between Canada’s Cameco Corporation and India’s Department of Atomic Energy. The deal ensures a long-term supply of uranium to fuel India’s civil nuclear reactors. The deal was valued at approximately CAD 2.6 billion. This agreement is crucial to India’s energy security as nuclear power remains a key component of its clean energy transition strategy. Both leaders emphasised that Civil Nuclear Cooperation would remain a central pillar of this bilateral relationship. They confirmed the launch of negotiations towards a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, aiming to significantly boost bilateral trade by 2030. Overall, the visit represents a diplomatic reset, with the uranium agreement serving as the most concrete deliverable of the India-Canada partnership.

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
US-Iran War
Day 03: US is hitting Iran "surgically, overwhelmingly and unapologetically," says the American Defence Secretary
On 02 March, addressing a news conference, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US did not start the war and was only responding to the Iranian threat. He also explained that the American objective in Iran is to target Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program, and also Iran’s navy. According to him, the US operations have a "clear, devastating, decisive mission: destroy the missile threat, destroy the navy, no nukes." The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - Gen Dan Caine, warned that the US operations against Iran are in their early stages and said: "This work is just beginning and will continue."

Day 04: US and Israel hit inside Iran; Missiles and drones strike the US embassy in Riyadh; Washington orders evacuation of non-emergency personnel from diplomatic missions, as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz
On 03 March, it marked the 4th day of the US - Israel and Iran war. The war has expanded across the Middle East region, leading to violence and economic disruption. Explosions were reported in Tehran and Bahrain, as US and Israeli air strikes hit the targets inside Iran and Iranian-aligned forces in Lebanon. In response, Iranian drones and missiles struck US diplomatic posts in the region, causing fire at the US embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In response to escalating threats, Washington ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from diplomatic missions in Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan, expanding earlier precautionary measures across the Gulf. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz which has spiked the cost of crude and transport across the world. Global stock markets fell due to disruptions in energy flows from the East. Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanhyu stated that the war could take “sometime” but would not stretch into years like previous Middle East wars. According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, 787 people have been killed across Iran, with the toll rising as bombing continues. Russia raised an alarm about fighting near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear facility, warning of potential risks.

Day 05: NATO intercepts Tehran's missile over the Mediterranean, reports Turkey; Iranian warship sinks off Sri Lanka; Mourners gather in Tehran for the late supreme leader’s funeral
On 04 March, Turkey reported that NATO air defences destroyed a missile fired by Iran over the Mediterranean Sea. Turkish officials said the interception occurred after the missile crossed international airspace, prompting a coordinated response among alliance members. Separately, an Iranian warship was reported to have sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka. Authorities confirmed that 30 people on board an Iranian ship were rescued in an emergency operation in open waters. Sri Lanka’s foreign minister confirmed the rescue, underscoring the wider regional spillover effects of the ongoing war beyond direct military engagements. In Tehran, mourners gathered to bid farewell to Iran’s late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at a state funeral ceremony attended by thousands.

Day 06: Bombing of Tehran intensifies; Iranian drones fall in Azerbaijan; European countries plan to deploy military assets in the Gulf region
On 05 March, the US and Israel’s airstrikes on Iran intensified while Iran vowed to retaliate for a US attack on IRIS Dena, which killed more than 80 sailors. Iranian strikes also intensified in Israel and Iraq, attacking pro-American Kurdish forces. The planned three-day mourning for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was interrupted, and officials were considering anointing his hardliner son Mojtaba as his successor. The economic fallout of the campaign intensified after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that the Strait of Hormuz would be under the control of the Islamic Republic in time of war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed that they had hit a US tanker in the northern part of the Gulf. Two Iranian drones fell into Azerbaijan, wounding four people in the Nakhchivan exclave. Iran denied targeting the region and blamed the action on Israel. It also denied Turkey’s claim that it fired a missile towards Turkish airspace a day earlier. Meanwhile, European countries planned to deploy their military assets and air defence in the region to protect their interests and citizens against Iranian strikes.

Day 07: Israel escalates strikes on Iran and Lebanon; Ukraine to help defend the Gulf countries from the Iranian drones
On 06 March, Israel launched its 15th wave of strikes on Iranian “regime infrastructure,” claiming 50 fighter jets hit a leadership bunker beneath the Tehran compound of slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which it said was still being used by Iran’s leadership. Israel also expanded its campaign in Lebanon by ordering the unprecedented evacuation of the entire southern suburbs of Beirut and carrying out 26 waves of strikes overnight on Hezbollah command centres and weapons depots, forcing residents to sleep in streets, cars and on the beach. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said “some countries have begun mediation efforts” and insisted Tehran sought “lasting peace” but would not hesitate to defend its “dignity and authority”, while Donald Trump demanded a say in choosing Khamenei’s successor.

Day 08: Tehran issues apology to Gulf states for previous attacks as Trump warns of “complete destruction and certain death”; India allowed Iranian warship to dock at Kochi port as humanitarian gesture, says Foreign Minister
On 07 March, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkin issued an unexpected apology to the Gulf countries that Tehran had attacked, stating that he “personally apologise to neighbouring countries that were affected by Iran’s actions.” He added that Iran’s temporary leadership council had agreed to suspend attacks on nearby states unless strikes on Iran originated from their territory. Reuters reported that despite the announcement, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said their drones struck a US  air combat centre at Al Dhafra Air Base, near Abu Dhabi. In response to Pezeshkin, President Trump claimed that Iran had “surrendered to its Middle East neighbors, and promised that it will not shoot at them anymore.” He also warned in a social media post that “Today Iran will be hit very hard!” and that “complete destruction and certain death” was under serious consideration. Reuters also reported that Israel has been bombing parts of western Iran to support Kurdish plans to seize Iranian border areas. However, Iraqi Kurdistan’s political leadership has denied any plans to send fighters or get involved in Iran, which would make it hard for the Iranian Kurds to mobilise without their support. Iranian Kurds had been providing targeting intelligence on the border areas to the US and Israel, reported Reuters.

Lebanon: Hezbollah opens fire on Israel; government calls for its disarmament, while Tel Aviv strikes back; Israel warns Beirut of "a heavy price" amid heavy bombardment
On 02 March, Lebanon’s government made a statement regarding the military activities of Hezbollah after the group opened fire on Israel to avenge the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel responded to Hezbollah’s drone and rocket attack with heavy airstrikes on Hezbollah?controlled southern Beirut suburbs and other parts of Lebanon, killing 31 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Hezbollah said its attack was to avenge “the pure blood” of Khamenei, who was killed in a bombing on Saturday. Israel declared its leader, Naim Qassem a “target for elimination.” Lebanon’s PM said the state rejected any military actions from Lebanese territory outside legitimate institutions and that war and peace decisions were exclusively its prerogative. The Lebanese government has called for “immediate prohibition” of Hezbollah’s security and military activities and the handover of its weapons to the state.

On 07 March, Israel warned Lebanon of "a heavy price" if it did not disarm Hezbollah by enforcing a 2024 agreement. It is also continuously pounding the group’s strongholds in the southern suburbs of Beirut with airstrikes after Hezbollah fired at Israel amid the Iran crisis, dragging Lebanon into the conflict. A rare airborne operation was also conducted near the town of Nabi Chit in the Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah claimed that it had fired on Israeli troops, but the Israeli military said that none of its forces were injured. Forty-one people had been killed in the Nabi Chit area, two hundred across Lebanon, and 300,000 people had been displaced due to Israeli attacks. Hezbollah warned Israeli citizens living near the border to flee their homes.

Kuwait: US fighter jets shot down in ‘friendly fire’ amid rising Iran tensions
On 02 March, three US jets were shot down in Al Jahra by Kuwaiti air defences in a friendly fire incident while participating in operations against Iran. All six crew members ejected safely and were taken to safety. A drone attack struck the American embassy compound in Kuwait, according to US officials. Several US bases and military facilities in the region have been attacked by Iran, prompting the militaries of the Gulf states to mobilise air defences to deter strikes.

The Iran War and Energy: Oil, Gas and Shipping get disrupted; Asia suffers more
On 02 March, media reports indicated a spike in oil prices and disruptions to air travel. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20 per cent of global oil flows, has pushed Brent crude up 10 per cent to USD 79 per barrel. Natural gas prices have surged by 25 per cent. The conflict, according to reports, has also affected the aviation sector. Major transit hubs such as Dubai and Doha have remained closed for three consecutive days, leaving approximately 90,000 passengers stranded. More than 2,800 flights have been cancelled. Travel-related stocks have depreciated by up to 10 per cent. Since the US warns that strikes could last for weeks, travellers are to expect higher ticket prices and long delays with no clear end.

On 03 March, supertanker costs in the Middle East hit an all-time high of more than USD 400,000 as the US-Iran conflict intensified, with Iran warning that it would attack ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s attack on Gulf countries has prompted them to shut down the oil and gas facilities as a precautionary measure. The freight rates for LNG tankers jumped by more than 40 per cent and could rise above USD 100,000 this week. Atlantic rates rose by forty-three percent and Pacific rates rose by forty-five per cent. The disruption has caused oil and gas prices to spike and stock market indices to stumble. Crude oil prices could pass USD 100 per barrel, and US petrol could rise by twenty-five per cent. UK gas prices have doubled, surging by more than 46 per cent. The UK’s FTSE 100 index fell by 2.6 per cent, Germany’s Dax fell by 3.7 per cent, and France’s CAC-40 fell by 3 per cent.

On 05 March, according to various media reports, the ongoing US-Iran war disrupted energy markets by blocking oil and natural gas shipments, leading to global price escalation. Since the war started, the price of Brent crude oil has jumped 15 per cent to about USD 84 a barrel, the highest price since July 2024. Even though the US offers insurance to help shipping companies, the disruptions are cascading as wealthier nations outbid poorer ones for scarce cargoes, leaving vulnerable economies to face fuel shortages. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan rely on imports for almost their entire energy supply and consider the current instability to be a severe threat, even with existing strategic stockpiles in place. Japan imported 2.34 million barrels of crude per day in January, about 95 per cent of its total imports; South Korea gets around 70 per cent of its crude oil and 20 per cent of its LNG from the Middle East. The stakes are similarly high for China and India as their industrial and transportation sectors face significant disruption as well. While China may utilize Russian exports, other regional players lack such alternatives. Countries like Thailand and the Philippines have implemented fuel rationing and restricted non-essential travel to preserve domestic reserves, which are projected to last only 61 days. If the conflict persists, the combination of high energy costs and rising interest rates could push global economic growth toward a standstill.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
The US and Rwanda: Washington sanctions Kigali’s military officials over alleged backing of M23 rebels in eastern Congo
On 03 March, according to media reports, the US imposed sanctions on the Rwanda Defence Force and senior military officials, including the army chief of staff. The sanctions were imposed on Rwanda for allegedly backing the AFC/M23 rebel group in eastern DRC. The US Treasury stated that Rwandan support enabled rebels to expand their control beyond their original boundaries, with the State Department accusing Rwanda of enabling serious human rights abuses. However, Rwanda denied the allegations, calling sanctions unjust, and stated that it would continue to follow US-mediated disengagement procedures that Congo failed to meet. Congo welcomed the move as a show of support for its sovereignty. Despite a US-led peace deal signed in December, conflict continues, with AFC/M23 recently claiming responsibility for a drone attack on Kisangani’s airport, raising fears of wider regional escalation.

South Sudan: Violence escalates as UN warns country at “dangerous point”
On 03 March, South Sudan faced an escalation in violence that has raised fears the country could slide back into a civil war. Fighting has intensified between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those associated with former Vice President Riek Machar. Parts of Jonglei state are among the regions affected the most by this violence. 169 people were killed after armed youth fighters known as the White Army, along with allied militias, carried out a raid in Abiemnom county near the Sudan border. Over 1,000 civilians have sought shelter at a United Nations base, where they are being provided protection and medical assistance.  Following the suspension of Machar by President Kiir on the grounds of murder and treason, the political arrangement between the two is feared to collapse. Doctors Without Borders reported that operations have been disrupted by attacks on facilities and the disappearance of staff members. UN officials warn that South Sudan has reached a “dangerous point.” These developments threaten the 2018 peace agreement that ended the five-year civil war in South Sudan.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
France: “The next 50 years will be an era of nuclear weapons,” says President Macron
On 03 March, President Emmanuel Macron announced a major expansion of France’s nuclear arsenal in response to a growing, unstable strategic environment. He declared that the next 50 years will be an "era of nuclear weapons," considering the global threats to be the reason for the shift in defense policy. As a part of this policy shift, France has decided to increase their warheads beyond 300 and launch a new nuclear-armed submarine, the Invincible, in 2036. The French Government has decided not to disclose the exact number of weapons in its possession to the public. Under the new "Advanced Deterrence" framework, eight European allies have agreed to participate in joint exercises and host French nuclear bombers at their air bases. This allows France to distribute its nuclear forces across Europe. These partners will also help develop technologies like space-based alarms and air defenses. President Macron emphasised that the President of France holds the sole authority to authorize a nuclear strike. This strategy is intended to strengthen European security and work alongside NATO’s current defense systems.

Russia and France: Moscow says Paris’s nuclear expansion plan is “highly destabilizing”
On 04 March, Moscow formally condemned France's plan of nuclear arsenal expansion and labelled it "highly destabilizing." Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that this expansion strengthens NATO's collective nuclear potential, which is to be perceived as a coordinated threat. Simultaneously, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that France’s move proves why French and British nuclear weapons must be included in any future talks about the global nuclear balance. Since the New START treaty ended in February 2026, Russia pointed out that bilateral agreements between the US and Russia are no longer enough.

Russia: Moscow considers redirecting LNG exports from Europe to Asia-Pacific
On 07 March, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that he had discussed with domestic energy companies the possibility of redirecting Russian supplies of LNG from Europe to other friendly Asia-Pacific markets, which include countries such as India, Thailand, the Philippines and China. Earlier, President Putin threatened to halt gas supplies to Europe amid a rise in oil prices due to the Iran crisis, pre-empting EU plans to stop Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by 30 September 2027.

AMERICAS THIS WEEK
Ecuador and the US: Washington and Quito launch joint anti-cartel operations targeting illicit drug trafficking
On 04 March, Ecuadorean and US forces launched operations against designated terrorist organisations in Ecuador in accordance with the country's recent concerns regarding the illicit drug trafficking in the region. US Southern Command took actions on Tuesday targeting illicit drug trafficking as President Daniel Noboa entered a "new phase" of his war on cartels. President Noboa said 70 per cent of global cocaine flows through Ecuador's ports, neighbouring top producers Colombia and Peru, making it a trafficking hotspot amid soaring violence. The actions follow President Noboa's Monday meeting in Quito with Southern Command chief Francis Donovan and US Special Operations head Mark Schafer, who discussed intelligence sharing and coordination at airports and seaports. "Together, we are taking decisive action to confront narco-terrorists who have long inflicted terror, violence, and corruption," said Southern Command. The operations come four months after Ecuadoreans rejected foreign military bases in a referendum, dashing US hopes despite President Noboa's alliance with President Trump.

The Iran War and the US: Senate rejects effort to limit the President’s war powers
On 05 March, the US Senate rejected a resolution that sought to curb President Trump’s authority to continue military action against Iran without congressional approval. The resolution failed in the Senate by a 53-47 vote. The resolution was introduced by Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who argued the Constitution gives Congress the authority to decide when a country goes to war. Ahead of the vote, Kaine stated that lawmakers should “debate and vote on matters of war and peace.” Most Democrats supported the proposal, arguing that Congress must have a direct role in decisions involving military conflict. However, the majority of the Republicans voted to block the measure, allowing the president to continue directing military operations against Iran. Opponents of the resolution defended the president’s authority as commander-in-chief and argued that limiting the president during an ongoing conflict could weaken US military operations. Although the resolution failed, the debate has intensified scrutiny of presidential war powers.

The US and Latin America: Trump hosts regional leaders amid concerns over China’s growing influence
On 07 March, President Trump hosted several Latin American leaders in Florida days after US strikes on Iran. The discussions focused on China’s growing influence in the region. The meeting was described as the “Shield of the Americas” summit. It brought together conservative leaders from Latin America as Washington seeks to strengthen partnerships and counter Beijing’s economic presence. Chilean conservative political figure Jose Antonio Kast, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa and Argentina’s President Javier Milei, were amongst the leaders who attended the summit. Many of these leaders share Trump’s positions on issues such as crime, migration and economic policy. The discussions were expected to focus on regional security concerns, including drug trafficking, organised crime and expanding role of China in Latin America. The meeting also comes ahead of planned talks between Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping which will be conducted later in March. China has significantly increased its economic engagement with Latin America in recent years. Trade between China and Latin America reached 518 billion USD, while Beijing has provided more than 120 billion USD in loans to countries in the region.

About the TWTW Team
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha and Aishal Yousuf are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai.
Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Yesasvi Koganti and Kirsten Coelho are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.
Tonica Sharon C is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Mount Carmel College, Bengaluru.
Adwitiyo Das, Glynnis Winona Beschi, Siddhi Halyur and Sreemaya Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St Joseph's University.
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha is an undergraduate student double-majoring in BSc Clinical Psychology and BA Political Science at the School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru.
Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
Vishal Manish M is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.

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