Global Politics Early Bird

CWA # 2010
Global Politics Early Bird
Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the “New” and the Fall of the “Old”

Mahesh Bhatta
9 March 2026

Photo Source: Reuters, Al Jazeera

See our two recent publications on Nepal Elections:
Sreemaya Nair, "Nepal Elections 2026: Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape," 08 March 2026
Mahesh Bhatta, "Nepal Election 2026, Day One: Peaceful polling, with over 60 per cent turnout," 06 March 2026
 

As on 8 March, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is leading by a wide margin in the direct parliamentary elections, signaling a potential landslide victory that could significantly weaken the long-standing dominance of traditional political parties. 

According to early results, the RSP has already secured 119 of the 165 directly elected seats and is leading in more than a dozen other constituencies, putting the party on track to obtain a simple majority in parliament. In comparison, the Nepali Congress (NC) has secured 17 seats, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) has won 07 seats, the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) has secured 6 seats, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) has won only 01 seat and the newly formed Shrama Shakti Party (SSP) has secured 02 seats, reflecting a dramatic shift in Nepal’s political landscape.

The Rise of the RSP and Balendra Shah
The Rastriya Swatantra Party is one of the most prominent new political forces in Nepal, representing a growing demand for political reform and good governance. The party was established in June 2022 by former television journalist and media personality Rabi Lamichhane, who currently serves as its chairman. The RSP was founded amid widespread public dissatisfaction with Nepal’s mainstream political parties, particularly the long dominant groups such as the Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). 

Many, especially young voters and urban middle-class groups had grown frustrated with political instability, corruption and unfulfilled development promises. In this context, the RSP positioned itself as an alternative political force advocating for good governance and reform-oriented politics.

The party made a remarkable electoral debut in the 2022 Nepalese general election, securing 20 seats in the House of Representatives and quickly becoming the fourth largest party and major political actor within the formation of five months. Its support base largely includes urban voters, young people, professionals and members of the Nepali diaspora who seek a departure from traditional political practices. The rise of the RSP reflects a broader shift in Nepal’s political landscape, where voters, particularly younger generations are increasingly demanding transparency, efficiency and new leadership.

Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen Shah is a prominent Nepali political figure, engineer and former rapper who has emerged as one of the most influential young leaders in Nepal in recent years. Born in 1990 in Kathmandu, he is widely known for representing a new generation of leadership and for his strong appeal among youth and urban voters.

Before entering politics, Balen gained popularity in Nepal’s hip-hop industry, where his rap songs often criticized corruption, social inequality and political dysfunction. His music helped him build a strong connection with young audiences and shaped his image as an outspoken critic of the political establishment.  Professionally Balen is a trained civil and structural engineer. He completed a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering in Nepal and later a master’s degree in structural engineering from Visvesvaraya Technological University in India.

Balen first entered mainstream politics in 2022 when he ran as an independent candidate in the Kathmandu mayoral election and won a historic victory, defeating candidates from major parties such as the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist). His victory marked a major shift in Nepal’s urban politics and demonstrated growing public support for alternative leadership. In recent national politics, Balen has become closely associated with reform oriented politics and youth movements, particularly after the political changes following the Gen Z protests in Nepal.

The Fall of Traditional Parties and the “Old” Political Leaders
The election has resulted in spectacular defeats for several senior leaders of Nepal’s traditional political parties, raising serious questions about their future leadership.

Senior leaders of Nepali Congress, including president Gagan Thapa, general secretaries Guru Raj Ghimire and Pradeep Paudel, joint secretaries Uday Shumsher Rana, Farmullah Mansur, Prakash Snehi and senior leaders Shekhar Koirala and Bimalendra Nidhi, also faced defeat.

The leadership of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) suffered major setbacks. Party chairman KP Sharma Oli lost to Balendra Shah, while senior leaders including Vice-chairmen Bishnu Paudel, Prithvi Subba Gurung and Gokarna Bista, general secretary Shankar Pokharel and secretaries Mahesh Basnet, Bhanubhakta Dhakal and Rajan Bhattarai also lost their seats.

Prominent leaders of Madhesh-based parties, including former deputy prime minister Upendra Yadav, along with Rajendra Mahato, CK Raut and Sharat Singh Bhandari, were also defeated.

Explaining the Rise of “New” and the Defeat of the “Old”
Several factors contributed to the poor performance of the traditional political parties in the election held after last year’s Gen Z movement. Growing public frustration with the old political leadership, the harsh suppression of the youth-led protests, perceived arrogance within party leadership, the shifting support of voters toward the Rastriya Swatantra Party and the entry of Balendra Shah into the party as a senior leader were among the key reasons behind the old parties’ humiliating defeat.

The election has widely been viewed as a contest between traditional political parties and emerging reform-oriented forces. With the current trend, the Rastriya Swatantra Party is expected to secure a comfortable majority and it may even approach a two-thirds majority in parliament.

What next for Nepal’s politics?
In the 275-member House of Representatives: a simple majority requires 138 seats and a two-thirds majority requires 184 seats. If confirmed, this would be a historic achievement for the RSP. In Nepal’s first democratic election in 1959, the Nepali Congress under BP Koirala won 74 out of 109 seats, securing a two-thirds majority. Since then, no party has achieved such a strong mandate. 

If the RSP secures an absolute majority, it will be able to form a government without relying on coalition partners. This could lead to a stable five-year government, something Nepal has struggled over the past two decades, were there were 14 different governments or leadership changes in the prime minister’s office. 

A stable government would also facilitate smooth lawmaking in parliament. If the party secures a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, it would gain significant constitutional powers, including the authority to remove the Speaker or Deputy Speaker through a two-thirds vote, impeach senior officials such as the Chief Justice, Supreme Court judges and heads of constitutional bodies and even amend the constitution. 

Overall, the 2026 general election marks a significant turning point. RSP’s strong performance and the dramatic defeat of many senior leaders from traditional parties reflect a clear shift in public sentiment, particularly among young voters seeking political reform and accountability. This election could open the possibility for greater political stability and policy continuity, while also demonstrating that the energy of recent youth-led movements has successfully translated into meaningful electoral change.


About the author
Mr Mahesh Raj Bhatta is a Research Officer at CSAS, Nepal.

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