Conflict Weekly Column

CWA # 2012
Conflict Weekly Column
The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EU’s energy dependence
Conflict Weekly #322, 06 March 2026

Padmashree Anandhan
6 March 2026

Photo Source: The Guardian

In the news
War on the ground
On 01 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the next round of US-Russia Ukraine peace talks could depend on developments in the Middle East after US-Israeli strikes on Iran complicated the diplomatic arrangement. Zelenskyy supported the strikes, accusing Tehran of enabling Russia’s war through the supply of Shahed drones. While Russia condemned the strikes as an act of aggression and reaffirmed its partnership with Iran.

On 02 March, analysis by the Institute for the Study of War showed Russia fired more missiles at Ukraine in February than in any month since early 2023. It launched 288 missiles and over 5,000 long-range drones. On the same day, Belgium seized a tanker that is believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.”

On 3 March, The Guardian reported that Russia’s territorial advance slowed to its lowest rate in nearly two years, with Ukrainian forces achieving several localised gains along the southern frontline. Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal and military assets near Novorossiysk.

Moscow View
On 05 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of attacking a Russian LNG carrier, although Ukraine did not confirm involvement. Ukrainian military claimed striking sites with drones in Russia’s Saratov region, forcing airport closures.

West View
On 04 March, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged the US President Trump to increase pressure on Russia and insisted that Ukraine should not be forced into further territorial concessions. On the same day, Belgium confirmed that the seized Russian tanker would remain detained after inspectors discovered multiple violations linked to sanctions evasion.

Issues at large
First, a surge in long drone strikes and targets on energy and logistical infrastructure.
Compared with earlier weeks where Russian advances around key eastern hubs dominated developments, this week highlighted a surge in long-range strikes from both sides rather than major front-line breakthroughs. Russia significantly increased missile and drone attacks, targeting energy facilities, logistics infrastructure and civilian areas. At the same time, Ukrainian forces expanded deep-strike operations against Russian military and energy assets, including oil terminals and missile production sites. While Russia continues to exert gradual pressure in eastern Ukraine, the latest developments show the slowest territorial gains in almost two years.

Second, Ukraine’s defence adaptation continues with support from military lessons from the West.
The scale of Russian drone and missile attacks highlights the pressure on Ukraine’s air defence network, even as interceptions stay effective. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s vast experience with drone warfare is influencing NATO and Western defence programmes. The rapid deployment of the US low-cost combat drone system developed on Iranian Shahed drones reflects how lessons from the Ukraine battlefield are reforming international military innovation.

Third, the difference over Russian energy resistance continues within Europe.
Disputes within the EU over the Druzhba pipeline and continued reliance on Russian oil among some states (Hungary and Slovakia) reveal persistent structural divisions. Russia also stands to benefit from global energy volatility triggered by tensions in the Middle East, which could increase demand for Russian exports and provide additional resources for its war effort. Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has declined sharply but remains uneven across the continent. Before the 2022 invasion, Russia supplied roughly 45 to 48 per cent of the EU’s natural gas imports, but by 2025 this share had fallen to around 15 to 17 per cent. This is mainly due to Europe's diversification efforts, importing from Norway, the US, and Algeria.   However, the reduction has not been uniform. Hungary and Slovakia remain the EU’s most dependent countries, continuing to import Russian pipeline oil and gas through the Druzhba pipeline, while France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands remain major importers of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered by sea.

In perspective
The ground situation this week suggests fewer territorial advances and more sustained long-range strikes. Russia continues to add pressure in the Donetsk region while Ukrainian defensive resistance grows strong. War on the ground is therefore evolving into a prolonged fight for endurance and technological adaptation. In terms of Europe’s energy dependency, the EU’s REPowerEU strategy has been formalised to phase out Russian gas imports completely by 2027, compelling member states to submit diversification plans and reduce remaining contracts. However, persistent LNG purchases and pipeline exemptions for landlocked states demonstrate how energy security concerns and national interests continue to complicate Europe’s effort to cut off its energy relationship with Russia.

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