Conflict Weekly Column

CWA # 2013
Conflict Weekly Column
Violence in South Sudan and the US sanctions on Rwanda
Conflict Weekly #322, 06 March 2026

Anu Maria Joseph
6 March 2026

Photo Source: AFP

In the News
1. South Sudan
On 03 March, the BBC reported that at least 178 people were killed in an attack in South Sudan's Ruweng region. Ruweng Administrative Area's Information Minister, James Mijok, said that the attack was carried out by the Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) from the Unity state. Meanwhile, the SPLA-IO denied any involvement and accused the authorities of politicising the violence.

On the same day, the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said: "The mission has enhanced its protective posture and is working with the government of South Sudan to support urgent efforts to restore calm and safeguard affected communities." The development came after 27 February, when the UN'S investigative body warned risk of "a return to full-scale war" in South Sudan. The UN's Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan (CHRSS) reported that civilians were enduring severe abuses, including killings and "systematic" sexual violence, arbitrary detention, and forced displacement in many regions.

2. Democratic Republic of Congo
On 03 March, the US imposed sanctions on Rwanda's military and four of its top officials for providing "direct operational support" to the M23 rebels in eastern DRC. The US Department of the Treasury spokesperson stated: “M23, a US- and UN-sanctioned entity, is responsible for horrific human rights abuses, including summary executions and violence against civilians, including women and children. The continued backing from the RDF and its senior leadership has enabled M23 to capture DRC sovereign territory and continue these grave abuses."

On the same day, the Rwandan government spokesperson responded that the sanctions "unjustly" target Rwanda and “misrepresent the reality and distort the facts of the conflict." Meanwhile, the Congolese government welcomed the sanctions and described them as "a strong signal in support of respect" for its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Issues at large
1. South Sudan: Renewed tensions between political rivals, increasing violence and threats of another civil war

Renewed tensions in South Sudan began in September 2025 when the first vice president and the leader of SPLA/IO, Reik Machar, was charged with murder, treason and human rights atrocities. The charges were linked to his involvement in an attack by the White Army militia against the federal forces in March 2025 in Upper Nile state.

The ongoing tensions and clashes are linked to the power struggle between Machar and South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, which triggered a six-year civil war in 2013, which ended with a power-sharing agreement in 2018. The arrest of Machar and renewed tensions have resulted in multiple armed clashes in several parts of the country over the past months, with both sides blaming each other for breaking the 2018 agreement. The latest attack came after the attack by the federal forces on a hospital in Jonglei state during early February. In January, SPLA-IO-linked forces attacked and captured several areas in the state, including the capital, Bor. In December, the government restricted humanitarian access exclusively to the SPLA/IO-held region in Jonglei. President Kiir's government accuses Machar and his party of plotting a coup.  

The renewed tensions and violence are attributed to the failure in implementing the 2018 peace agreement. Both factions were never fully integrated and unified, reforms were delayed, and presidential elections were repeatedly postponed.

2. DR Congo: A protracted conflict amidst a challenged US-led peace deal
In December, US President Donald Trump mediated between the leaders of Rwanda and the DRC to sign a peace deal. The signing of the peace deal portrayed an image of an end to the conflict. However, the M23 violence and fighting have continued in eastern DRC on several fronts. During late December 2025, the rebel group captured the city of Uvira in South Kivu province. Although M23 pulled out of Uvira under US pressure, the group still controls Goma and Bukavu, the regional capitals of South and North Kivu.

The US and several international bodies, including the UN, have accused Rwanda of supporting M23 with evidence since the beginning of the conflict. For Rwanda, M23 has acted as a proxy to fight the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels along the Congolese border and to access mineral deposits in eastern DRC.

While the US-mediated peace deal was expected to lay the ground for an end to violence, the deal was criticised for many reasons. First, the deal lacked inclusivity; M23, the major actor in the conflict, was not a signatory to the agreement. Second, the deal displayed a transactional character when Trump involved the US's mineral interests in the bargaining and deviated from a genuine interest in resolving the conflict. Third, the deal discusses an end to hostilities, disarmament and disengagement of the rebel groups, and a regional economic integration. However, the deal does not discuss resolving the decades-long root causes behind the complex conflict in eastern DRC. Ultimately, the deal reflected a US geopolitical manoeuvre that served Trump's global peace pursuits. Finally, six months into the signing, the deal could not materialise any of its provisions on the ground and ended up being a peace deal without peace.

In perspective
In South Sudan, the frequent clashes signal a potential resumption of intense violence rather than isolated skirmishes. It implies increasing fears of a breakout of another civil war. Meanwhile, the political tensions also point to a breakdown of potential grounds for negotiation, making violence more likely.

In DR Congo, the US sanctions on Rwandan forces appear to be a punitive measure to compel Rwanda to comply with its commitments under the peace deal. However, Rwanda's allegations of "unjust" points to mistrust between the signatories of the peace deal, which is likely to strain the implementation of the peace deal. The move risks the potential sustainability of the peace deal and resumption of violence.

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