CWA # 2035
Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation

Akshath Kaimal
20 March 2026

Photo Source: Al Jazeera/Reuters

Conflict Weekly Note #324, 20 March 2026

In the news
On 15 March, hostilities continued between Pakistan and Afghanistan, with the former launching airstrikes in Kandahar province; earlier Kabul fired mortar shells into Bajaur district of KP, killing four civilians.

On 16 March, Pakistan conducted airstrikes on Kabul and Nangarhar province, saying it targeted technical support infrastructure and ammunition storage in Kabul. The same day, Afghanistan accused Pakistan of striking a drug rehabilitation facility in Kabul and killing over 400 civilians. Afghan government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid called the strike a “crime against humanity.” Pakistan rejected the claim, saying it only targeted military infrastructure in Kabul.

On 17 March, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) confirmed the strike on the medical facility; on 18 March, it said it had recorded 143 deaths from the strike.

On 18 March, following pressure from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye, both countries announced a pause to the fighting. Islamabad said its operations would be paused from midnight on Thursday to midnight on Tuesday.

Issues at large
1. The ceasefire in tatters
In October 2025, Pakistan and Afghanistan were engaged in a brief military confrontation.  A ceasefire agreement was reached with the help of Qatar and Turkiye. Under the deal, Kabul agreed not to “support groups carrying out attacks against the Government of Pakistan.” However, the two sides continued trading fire, albeit with less intensity, as Pakistan felt Kabul was not doing enough to stop the flow of terrorists from its territory into Pakistan. A series of terrorist attacks in January and February 2026 prompted Islamabad to conduct airstrikes inside Afghanistan, with Kabul retaliating with its own attacks. The Taliban denies Pakistan’s claim that it supports terrorist groups - especially the TTP - that have been conducting attacks within Pakistan. Kabul, instead, blames Islamabad for being the aggressor and failing to address its own internal security issues. The initial ceasefire agreement was fragile but saw military hostilities recede by the end of 2025. With clashes intensifying over the last three weeks, that ceasefire is now effectively broken.

2. The expanding geographical scope of attacks by Pakistan and Afghanistan
During October 2025, Pakistan primarily targeted Taliban and militant camps near the border. But this time around, Islamabad has expanded its attacks to the interiors of Afghanistan, primarily Kabul and, more recently, Kandahar. Pakistan has also expanded its attacks on Taliban military and technical infrastructure, both along the border and in Kabul. This expansion resulted in a drug rehabilitation facility in Kabul being hit by Pakistani airstrikes, killing over 140 civilians. Although less intense, Afghanistan has also struck the interiors of Pakistan, particularly Quetta, Kohat and Rawalpindi. Kabul used drones to conduct these attacks, which injured several, two among them children. This signals an expansion in the geographical scope of attacks from both sides.

3. Conflicting data on attacks and casualties
Pakistan, on the one hand, has consistently provided figures on the number of militants killed, injured, checkposts captured and military equipment destroyed, without shedding any light on civilian casualties. Afghanistan, on the other hand, provides figures relating to its own operations, but primarily highlights the civilian casualties of Pakistani attacks, accusing Islamabad of indiscriminately targeting civilians, which Pakistan denies. Meanwhile, the UN has also been providing figures on civilian casualties, but they usually differ from those of the other two parties. For example, Afghanistan says that over 400 civilians were killed in the Pakistani airstrike on the drug rehabilitation facility in Kabul. At the same time, the UN announced the number was actually 143, and Pakistan denied attacking the facility in the first place. This makes it difficult to understand the direct impact of the hostilities on civilians.

4. The international response
Countries like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye have been primarily calling for hostilities. President Erdogan of Turkiye offered to help restore the initial ceasefire to help end the fighting. China has also repeatedly offered to mediate as it maintains warm relations with both countries. The UK and the US also expressed concern over the violence. India has backed Afghanistan and also highlighted Pakistan’s failure to control its internal security situation. The United Nations, through its human rights chief Volker Türk, has expressed concern over the rising civilian toll, with a majority of them being children. Ultimately, it was Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye that managed to secure a temporary pause in fighting.

In perspective
First, a conflict with no end in sight. While fighting has been paused at the moment, Pakistan has said that it would resume its operations from next week. Both sides seem to be at an impasse.

Second, the border closures and worsening impact on civilians. The hostilities this time are having a far worse impact on civilians. Additionally, Pakistan has also ramped up action against illegal Afghan nationals, arresting thousands across the country. Prolonged border closures have resulted in trade losses of around USD 2 million per day. This can expand displacement, worsening the humanitarian situation.

 

Click here to read recent and related commentaries:
Akshath Kaimal, “Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes: Another round of cross-border attacks,” Conflict Weekly #321, 27 February 2026

Akshath Kaimal, “Pakistan and Afghanistan: A Disputed border, TTP attacks and heightened tensions,” Conflict Weekly #313, 31 December 2026

Lekshmi MK, “Pakistan-Taliban Peace Talks: Background, Issues, Challenges and Implications,” PR Commentary, 31 December 2026

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