CWA # 2036
Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation
Expanding Israeli Military Operations and the Reshaping of Southern Lebanon

Brighty Ann Sarah
20 March 2026

Photo Source: EPA

Conflict Weekly Note

In the news
On 12 March, Hezbollah and the IRGC, in a coordinated strike, launched a barrage of over 200 missiles targeting Israel, in a steep escalation of hostilities. In response, Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, stated that the Israeli military has been instructed to expand its operations in Lebanon. Katz warned Lebanese President Joseph Aoun that if the Lebanese government could not prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel, Israel "would do it ourselves.”

On 13 March, Defence Minister Katz stated that the IDF is expanding its military operations in Lebanon, issuing evacuation orders and launching strikes at the heart of Beirut. He threatened to unleash Gaza-scale destruction. Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, responded that the group has “prepared ourselves for a long confrontation.” On the same day, the Norwegian Refugee Council stated that Israel's evacuation orders for southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut now covered about 1,470 square kilometres or about 14 per cent of the country. Israeli officials also stated that the displaced population will not be allowed to return to their homes until Israeli citizens are safe from the threat of Hezbollah

On 16 March, Israeli officials indicated that Israel and Lebanon are expected to hold talks, but President Aoun’s demands for a ceasefire are questionable.

On 18 March, Reuters reported that Israel has more than doubled the number of troops along its border with Lebanon and is searching homes in southern Lebanese villages that the military has ordered to evacuate.

On 19 March, Israeli forces declared that two landbridges over the Litani River, connecting southern Lebanon with the rest of the country, had been destroyed in strikes.

Issues at large
1. A brief note on the geographic and demographic importance of the southern Lebanon and Israel-Hezbollah confrontations
Israel’s strikes are closely concentrated across south Lebanon, directly adjacent to Israel's northern border. Geographically, the south, precisely the border strip south of the Litani River was the zone Hezbollah was required to vacate under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, 2006. Hezbollah never fully complied; instead, it rebuilt its military capabilities there. For Hezbollah, this region is also the primary operational zone, hosting most of its military assets and command centres, and the hilly and rugged terrain is suitable for guerrilla operations.

Demographically, southern Lebanon is the heartland of Lebanon's Shia Muslim community, which forms Hezbollah's core support base and recruitment pool. The group has dominated the areas for decades through military control, social services and political influence. For Israel, operations here directly disrupt Hezbollah's grassroots infrastructure and forward-deployed personnel. Similarly, in Beirut, the southern suburb of Dahiyeh is also a Hezbollah stronghold, hosting a large Shia population, displaced by Israeli attacks in south Lebanon since the 2006 war.

2. Israel’s reluctance to negotiate with Lebanon and Beirut’s weak control over Hezbollah
Israel's reluctance to negotiate stems from a deep scepticism toward the Lebanese government’s ability to deliver on its commitments to disarm Hezbollah. Beirut’s incapacity in enforcing previous agreements and curbing Hezbollah militarily has significantly weakened its diplomatic position with Tel Aviv. The administration lacks both the military capacity and political will against Hezbollah’s political and military stronghold in the country. The administration's fear of triggering an internal collapse allows Hezbollah to act independently, aligning with Iranian interests.  

3. Israel’s strategic interests in southern Lebanon and the Litani River
Israel regards the Litani River as its ”natural northern border,” which functions as a de facto “red line” and geographic buffer. Israel's operations in the region claim to create a temporary “forward defence area” or security perimeter south of the Litani by pushing Hezbollah northward and neutralising its infrastructure to enforce the demilitarised buffer without permanent annexation. Israel seeks to depopulate the southern strip and extend military control over the region to prevent the resurgence of Hezbollah in the territory, securing Tel Aviv’s northern borders.

In perspective
Israel’s targeted strikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs are a dual-pronged strategy to reduce Hezbollah's military and operational capacity and also its hold over these sub-regions. By hitting its core infrastructure, command centres, launch sites and tunnel networks, Israel aims to erode Hezbollah’s ability to carry out cross-border operations.

Second, Israel’s strikes also mark an attempt to erode Hezbollah's domestic support among its most loyal Shia base by triggering widespread public frustration over persistent destruction and suffering, while simultaneously dispersing the population through mass evacuation orders, repeated bombardments and displacement. This forced relocation prevents the formation of a unified collective force or resistance network and fosters resentment toward Hezbollah for "dragging" Lebanon into war on Iran's behalf. Over time, such a strain could complicate Hezbollah’s standing domestically, potentially making it easier for the administration of Lebanon to push more firmly for restrictions or disarmament, especially if public support for the group becomes more fragmented.

 

Click here for recent and related publications:
Brighty Ann Sarah, “Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation: Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals,” Conflict Weekly #323, 13 March 2026

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