CWA # 2067
CW Note
The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
Despite extensive diplomatic outreach by Pakistan and its allies, along with increased pressure from Trump to come to the negotiating table, Iran continues to reject peace talks, while the US naval blockade continues to remain in place.
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Akshath Kaimal
24 April 2026
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In the news
Islamabad Talks
On 17 April, US President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire would expire on 22 April and then said on 18 April that there was "some pretty good news" about Iran, but it remains vague. On 20 April, reports suggested that US Vice President JD Vance would travel to Islamabad for talks with Iran, but the Iranian leadership rejected the talks. On 21 April, Trump extended the ceasefire and on 22 April said talks were possible within “36 to 72 hours”, but Iran continued to deny their participation as long as the US naval blockade remained. On 22 April, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said negotiations were “impossible” under a “flagrant breach” of the ceasefire by the US.
The Strait of Hormuz
On 17 April, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to all ships, only to reverse that decision on 18 April due to the US naval blockade. On 19 and 21 April, the US Navy seized two Iranian-linked vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Between 18 and 22 April, Iran seized two cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and fired at another.
International & regional responses
On 17 April, France and the United Kingdom hosted over 30 countries to form the Strait of Hormuz Maritime Freedom of Navigation Initiative, a defensive initiative aimed at restoring free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On 18 April, India summoned the Iranian envoy to protest the firing on Indian vessels. On 21 April, Xi Jinping, on a call with Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman, called for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and reiterated China’s support for restoring peace in the region.
Issues at large
1. A fragile ceasefire
The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, on 08 April. The two parties agreed to halt hostilities for 14 days, “safely open” the Strait of Hormuz, and use the 14 days to discuss the remaining points of friction, such as the nuclear issue and economic sanctions. Iran insisted that the Strait’s opening would be managed by its forces, which was a major sticking point between the two parties. Iran was also unhappy about Israel continuing its attacks on Lebanon despite the ceasefire, which it felt covered both theatres of the war. The agreement was further undermined by a US-imposed naval blockade of Iran imposed on 13 April and the seizure of two Iranian-linked vessels on 19 and 21 April. Iran has accused the US of violating the ceasefire agreement and said it reserves the right to respond appropriately. Trump extended the ceasefire before the deadline, but its fragility is clear.
2. Stalemate in Islamabad Talks
Pakistan helped broker a temporary ceasefire on 08 April, which opened the door to the first round of peace talks in Islamabad on 11 April. But the negotiations lasted barely 24 hours before both parties left the capital without reaching an agreement. Iran’s nuclear enrichment and the issue over the Strait of Hormuz remained the major reasons for the deadlock. There was some hope for a second round of talks, but Trump’s decision to impose a naval blockade of Iran on 13 April made it unlikely. Trump has been pushing for talks to resume on US terms, while Iran has pushed back by accusing the US of violating the ceasefire and firing at vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. As of 23 April, the resumption of talks remains uncertain, with Trump claiming a second round could be possible within “36 to 72 hours” while Iran deems negotiations “impossible” at this stage.
3. Trump’s mixed-messaging strategy
US President Donald Trump’s comments and announcements about the war over the last week moved from cautious optimism to all-out threats. He first claimed that Iran was “very close” to making a deal and had agreed to “never close” the Strait of Hormuz again. But his tone quickly changed as peace talks stalled. He claimed that the US was “raring to go” after restocking its weapons during the ceasefire and that it could bomb Iran by Wednesday (22 April) evening if a deal wasn’t reached. On 21 April, he claimed without evidence that Iran had sent “hundreds of ships” towards Texas and Alaska to obtain oil due to the blockade severely impacting its economy. He then extended the ceasefire on 22 April - hours before its expiry - but maintained the blockade. Trump’s strategy is meant to pressure Iran to come to the table, but he is also quick to change when things aren’t going his way. He seems determined to pressure Iran militarily to make an acceptable deal, which is only angering Iran and putting more strain on the ceasefire.
4. Disputed control over the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz has been a major flashpoint in this war. Between 17 and 23 April, both the US and Iran have claimed control over the Strait. On 17 April, Iran said the Strait was “completely open”, but then went back to closing the Strait less than 24 hours later, citing the US naval blockade as a “breach of trust”. The US blockade, imposed on 13 April, has been part of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy, leading the Navy to seize two Iranian-linked vessels that were passing through the Strait. Iran has reacted violently by also seizing two cargo vessels and firing at another. The latest conflicting claims and provocative actions over the Strait of Hormuz mean the issue remains the primary reason for the stalled negotiations.
In perspective
1. The future of peace talks remains uncertain
Despite extensive diplomatic outreach by Pakistan and its allies, along with increased pressure from Trump to come to the negotiating table, Iran continues to reject peace talks, while the US naval blockade continues to remain in place. This makes the second round of talks uncertain, even though leaders in Pakistan and the Middle East remain optimistic that the two parties will meet. Even if the talks take place, there is little probability that Iran would accept all of the US’s demands, primarily regarding the nuclear issue, meaning peace is still a long way away.
2. The Strait of Hormuz will continue to be one of the main points of contention
Both Iran and the US have employed different tactics to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. The naval blockade imposed by the US has caused Iran to react violently, making control over the Strait one of the main barriers to successful peace talks. These contested claims are also continuing to have a major impact on the global economy, with oil prices sharply fluctuating and driving price increases worldwide. The International Energy Agency (IEA) labelled this the “biggest energy crisis in history”. With the UN warning that continued weaponisation of the Strait could lead to a global recession, reaching a common ground regarding the waterway seems to be the only way to help peace talks progress.
About the author
Mr Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS. He works on Pakistan and Africa.
