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NIAS Global Politics Team
8 May 2026 |
The US-Iran War, Week Ten
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
Brighty Ann Sarah
In the news
On 03 May, Iran shared a 14-point proposal with the US via Pakistan that called for the permanent end of the war and a complete resolution within 30 days, which was rejected by President Trump as not satisfactory.
On 04 May, Trump launched ‘Project Freedom,’ which employed US naval assets to transit vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, breaching Iran’s blockade of the strait.
On the same day, in a sharp escalation of hostilities, Iran struck several vessels, including an oil tanker owned by the UAE’s ADNOC, and launched drone strikes across Abu Dhabi, striking a key oil refinery in Fujairah.
On 05 May, Iran’s FM Abbas Araqchi condemned Project Freedom as “Project Deadlock," adding that the strikes on the UAE were not pre-emptive, and that talks were progressing steadily with Pakistan’s mediation.
Separately, Trump announced a halt to Project Freedom and associated hostilities, stating that "great progress" had been made toward a deal with Iran. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also declared that Operation Epic Fury, the air and naval campaign launched on 28 February, was “concluded” and that Washington has achieved its objectives in Iran.
On 06 May, Pakistan confirmed that Washington and Tehran had reached a 14-point, one-page memorandum to end hostilities. President Trump claimed that a deal would be arrived at “very quickly,” in the absence of which, Washington will “go back to bombing the hell out of them.” He asserted that the deal excludes any possibility of Iran's nuclear ambitions.
On 07 May, sources reported that Iran was reviewing the US proposal, and that Washington and Tehran were hedging towards a deal that would facilitate a temporary cessation of hostilities in exchange for a comprehensive peace plan.
On the same day, Washington and Tehran exchanged fire in another escalation, although President Trump asserted that the ceasefire was still in place.
Issues at large
1. The fragile ceasefire and the tensions in opening the Strait of Hormuz
Washington’s Project Freedom and subsequent Iranian retaliations have been the highest point of escalation since the ceasefire was established in early April. Iran viewed Washington’s involvement of US Navy destroyers, aircraft, and personnel as a major ceasefire violation and responded with coordinated attacks, including swarms of drones, cruise missiles and fast-attack boats targeting US forces and escorted shipping, and also launched strikes on targets in the UAE. Although the hostilities came to a halt within 50 hours, their resurgence amid Iran’s deliberation over the US proposal and Washington's repeated efforts to reopen the strait highlight the urgency to resume transit and the fragility of the ceasefire.
2. Conflicting demands and the risk of deadlock
The 14-point plan proposed by the US emphasises the immediate reopening of the strait over the long-term resolution of the conflict. The MOU would declare an end to the war in the region, including related fronts, with both sides agreeing to lift restrictions on transit through the strait during the 30-day window. However, Washington remains steadfast in its demands against Iran’s nuclear programme, demanding a long-term moratorium on uranium enrichment, reportedly 12-15 years, down from an initial US push for 20, shipping out its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, pledging not to pursue its nuclear weapons programme and accepting enhanced IAEA snap inspections.
The success of the deal hinges on Iran ceding to US demands and making room for further political negotiations. Iran’s top leaders have already rejected the demands as an American “wish-list,” indicating that Tehran is unlikely to forgo its long-standing claims on nuclear enrichment. The repeated deadlock over the same point of contention is likely to culminate in a ’no war, no peace’ limbo or renewed hostilities and escalation of the conflict.
3. The show of force by the US
The regional powers have not stepped in to join the US in opposing the Iranian blockade. The extent to which they have expressed explicit solidarity with the US is in the recent UN resolution against Tehran. This is despite repeated US efforts to mobilise a coalition and Iran’s attacks on US military bases and oil infrastructure across the region. Washington’s military efforts to breach the blockade, first through the Maritime Freedom Construct and then through Project Freedom, received little participation.
The UAE’s interception of drone attacks within its own territory and subsequent condemnation of Iran’s strikes mark the limited military involvement from the Gulf states, highlighting the region's efforts to avoid further escalation at the strait. Countries, including South Korea, with nearly 20 vessels caught in the strait, have not responded affirmatively to Washington’s call to join Project Freedom.
In perspective
First, testing the ceasefire to nudge political negotiations. Washington’s naval intervention to wrest the ships out of the blockade and the subsequent retaliation from Tehran were both attempts to gauge Tehran’s response and nudge negotiations toward reopening the strait under the threat of military escalation. Both Washington and Tehran want to lift the blockade of the strait, but without progress in the political negotiations, the standoff has been reduced to a dilemma of who blinks first. Washington’s military escalation, Trump’s optimism that the
Second, Washington’s loop of repeated threats and unyielding demands. Washington’s repeated threats of military intervention, combined with unchanging core demands on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, have trapped the conflict in a self-reinforcing loop with little meaningful progress. With the US insisting on discarding Iran’s nuclear programme entirely, and Iran refusing to accept what it sees as an erosion of its sovereignty, the standoff increasingly appears headed toward a prolonged stalemate rather than a negotiated resolution.
CW Column
Conflicts in the Middle East
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE’s Covert Manoeuvres
Brighty Ann Sarah
What happened this week?
Lebanon
On 04 May, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun declined to meet with Israel’s PM Netanyahu until Israel's attacks on South Lebanon ceased. Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker and close Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri also stated that there could be no negotiations with Israel without a halt to the war.
On 06 May, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that peace between Israel and Lebanon was “immediately achievable,” but the problem rested with Hezbollah.
On 07 May, Israel carried out strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing the commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force in the group’s stronghold of Dahiyeh.
The attack marked the first strike on Beirut’s suburbs since the 16 April ceasefire, even as clashes in southern Lebanon continue.
On the same day, White House sources revealed that the US will host the third round of ambassador-level talks between representatives from Israel and Lebanon on 14 and 15 May.
The United Arab Emirates
On 04 May, a major Iranian attack in response to Washington’s Project Freedom struck an empty ADNOC oil tanker belonging to Abu Dhabi and sparked a fire at the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone, a key oil facility in eastern UAE.
On 05 May, the UAE reported a second consecutive day of attacks, with air defences engaging additional missiles and drones from Iran, which Tehran denied responsibility for.
On 06 May, a second liquefied natural gas tanker managed by Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company (ADNOC) covertly crossed the Strait of Hormuz, followed by another shipment on 07 May.
On 08 May, the UAE Ministry of Defence announced that air defences were "actively engaging" with a new missile and drone attack originating from Iran.
What are the issues?
1. Lebanon: Israel’s pivot towards Beirut, nominal ceasefire and imbalance negotiations
Despite the April ceasefire, Israel’s strikes and invasions had been largely limited to Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and Israel’s border areas. By hitting Beirut, Israel has broken the post-ceasefire “red line” that had previously insulated the state capital from attacks. Beirut, particularly its southern suburbs of Dahiyeh, is Hezbollah’s primary stronghold and de facto command centre in Lebanon's capital. The densely populated Shia-majority area has long served as the group’s political, military and logistical hub.
Further, Lebanon’s leadership remains reluctant to engage in ministerial-level talks with Israel, demanding a more stable environment, starting with a consolidated ceasefire, a complete halt to Israeli strikes and a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Beirut explicitly rejects normalization with Israel, seeking a limited security or non-aggression arrangement. Lebanon prefers a step-by-step approach, insisting on “no negotiations under fire” until concrete Israeli concessions are secured.
Additionally, the notable absence of Hezbollah in the negotiations and the group's repeated demands for Israeli withdrawal complicate the process. This is compounded by the negotiation’s hinging on Beirut’s ability to dismantle Hezbollah while the group remains a prominent political and military force, while the state is persistently weakened by sustained Israeli aggression and internal friction.
2. The UAE: Abu Dhabi under Iranian attacks and post-OPEC revitalisation
The UAE has emerged as a target of Iranian aggression since its recent exit from the Saudi-led OPEC and OPEC+ due to differences over production flexibility, contentions with Saudi Arabia, and to distance itself from the cartel amid the escalating crisis in global oil supply chains. Following its departure, Abu Dhabi had staunchly condemned the GCC’s “historically weak” and muted collective response to Iran’s missile and drone strikes on Gulf states.
Further, the UAE has cultivated a deep strategic partnership with the US and Israel through the 2020 Abraham Accords. Through the Accords, Abu Dhabi forged normalization with Israel, driven by shared concerns over Iran and with strong US backing, solidifying its role as Washington’s key Gulf partner with major US military basing and advanced arms deals. While other GCC oil producers such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have suspended sales, reduced prices to attract reluctant buyers or limited shipments to routes through the Red Sea, the UAE risks transits through the Strait of Hormuz. These efforts, combined with Abu Dhabi’s close alliance with the US and Israel, have significantly increased the likelihood of Iranian attacks on the UAE.
What does it mean?
For Lebanon, Lebanon’s leadership has emerged assertive in its stance against Israel’s ceasefire violations and entrenching occupation. With their rejection of direct talks with Israel and the exclusion of Hezbollah from the negotiation table, the negotiations are likely to conclude without resolution. Further, the US-mediated talks also coincide with the diplomatic developments in the broader Israel-US war against Iran, where cessation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon had been among Tehran’s core demands. The timing of the talk will provide further momentum to Washington’s negotiations with Tehran.
For the UAE, Abu Dhabi’s continued covert operations through the Strait of Hormuz despite escalating security risks reflect the strategic autonomy enabled by its exit from OPEC, as well as its broader effort to assert dominance within a weakened global oil supply chain. For Abu Dhabi, seeking to position itself beyond the constraints of the OPEC framework, maintaining energy flows and market influence carries great value. Its close partnership with the US is also likely to secure access to shipping routes should tensions ease. However, this strategy increasingly places the UAE among the foremost targets for potential Iranian retaliation.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week: (02-07 May)
Abhimanyu Solanki, Aishal Yousaf, Akshath K, Brighty Ann Sarah, Glynnis Winona B, Kirsten Wilfred Coelho, Manik Dhawan, Nithin V, Rakshitha B, Siddhi Haylur, Sreemaya Nair, Vani Vaishnavi Jupudi and Vishal Manish M
Regional Round-ups
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China and Iran: FM Araqchi visits Beijing ahead of meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping
On 06 May, Reuters reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing, ahead of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Iran's foreign ministry said that Mr Araqchi briefed Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Iran's talks with the US. He said that Iran will do its best to protect its rights and interests while negotiating with the US. China's foreign ministry said that the regional situation was at a critical juncture while calling for a cessation of hostilities. Beijing further urged all parties to restore secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. China also acknowledged Iran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy. Earlier this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China to persuade Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said that President Trump will discuss Iran with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping in Beijing on 14-15 May.
South China Sea: Japan fires missile during joint military exercise with US allies
On 06 May, Reuters reported that Japan fired a Type 88 anti-ship missile during joint military exercises with the United States, Australia and the Philippines in the northern Philippines near the South China Sea. The missile hit a retired Philippine Navy ship during the “Balikatan” exercises which included more than 17,000 troops from allied countries. The military exercise took place amid ongoing tensions in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. Japan and the Philippines also discussed expanding defence cooperation, including possible transfers of Japanese military equipment to the Philippines. China criticised the exercises and said the growing military cooperation between US allies could increase tensions in the region. The development highlights stronger security cooperation between US allies in the Asia-Pacific region and growing regional tensions linked to China’s actions in the South China Sea and near Taiwan.
Southeast Asia
Myanmar: US urges release of Aung San Suu Kyi following reported shift to house arrest
On 02 May, according to Mizzima, the United States urged the immediate release of Aung San Suu Kyi after reports she had been moved from prison to house arrest. The development comes amid continued concern over the detention of political leaders since the 2021 military coup. Observers note that while the shift may indicate a change in detention conditions, it does not address broader concerns about political imprisonment and democratic backsliding. The United States reiterated that her detention remains unjust and called for the release of all political prisoners. The move highlights sustained international pressure and raises questions about possible strategic adjustments by the military authorities.
Myanmar: Military airstrike kills civilians during bridge repair in Chin State
On 02 May, according to Mizzima, a Myanmar military airstrike killed nine civilians, including children, in Kanpetlet Township, Chin State, as residents were repairing a bridge. Reports indicate the attack targeted the area near Mone Chaung Bridge on 29 April, with victims engaged in repair work at the time. Observers note that the incident reflects the military’s increasing reliance on air power in areas with limited ground control. Despite reduced troop presence, aerial attacks continue to pose serious risks to civilians. The development highlights escalating violence and raises concerns about humanitarian conditions and further intensification of the conflict.
Myanmar: Ethnic armed groups accused of complicity as China advances border demarcation
On 05 May, according to The Irrawaddy, ethnic armed groups, including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) have been accused of cooperating with China in extending border demarcation into Myanmar territory. Reports indicate that Chinese authorities have been moving boundary markers deeper into areas traditionally considered part of Myanmar, raising concerns among local communities. Observers note that the alleged involvement or acquiescence of these groups reflects complex dynamics along the China–Myanmar border, where security, economic interests, and political alignments intersect. The development highlights growing concerns over sovereignty, territorial integrity, and China’s expanding influence in border regions amid Myanmar’s ongoing instability.
South Asia
Afghanistan and Pakistan: Over 5,000 Afghan migrants deported in a single day via key border crossings
On 02 May, according to Afghanistan International, the Taliban’s high commission for migrants said Pakistan deported at least 5,178 Afghan nationals on 01 May, returning them through Torkham and Spin Boldak border crossings. The commission said 1,033 individuals were subsequently transferred from Kabul to various provinces across Afghanistan. The report noted that detentions and deportations of Afghan migrants across Pakistan have intensified in recent weeks. Earlier, Reuters reported that hundreds of vehicles carrying Afghan migrants were stranded near the Torkham crossing amid ongoing tensions. Since 2023, Pakistan has deported more than two million Afghan migrants out of an estimated three million, including many long-settled refugee families.
Afghanistan: Kabul accuses Islamabad of deadly cross-border strikes amid ongoing talks; Kabul says the strike killed three people, while Pakistan denied the claim; Informal talks underway in Istanbul
On 05 May, The Associated Press reported that Afghanistan accused Pakistan of carrying out cross-border attacks into its territory, killing at least three civilians and injuring 14 in Kunar province, while also damaging schools, mosques and a health facility. Afghan officials condemned the strikes as targeting civilian areas. In response, Pakistan’s information ministry rejected the allegations, instead blaming recent cross-border fire from Afghan territory that it said had killed women and children in Bajaur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa district.
Meanwhile, on 30 April, Afghanistan International reported that informal backchannel talks are reportedly underway in Istanbul involving figures linked to both sides, with support from Türkiye, to address tensions over border clashes, militant activity and migration issues. The discussions are said to focus on practical confidence-building measures such as intelligence sharing and preventing cross-border incidents. However, previous formal negotiations in multiple regional capitals have failed to yield lasting results, underscoring the fragility of ties between the two neighbours.
Afghanistan: Catalan parliament raises concern over violence against Hazaras
On 05 May, according to Afghanistan International, the Parliament of Catalonia condemned “structural discrimination” and “systematic violence” against Hazaras in Afghanistan, calling for independent investigations and support for Hazara refugees. The statement said Hazaras have faced long-standing exclusion, repression and violence due to their ethnic and religious identity, referring to historical persecution during the rule of Abdur Rahman Khan and continued attacks after 2001. It noted incidents including suicide bombings, mass killings and attacks on educational and religious institutions, stating these acts meet criteria for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. The parliament urged the European Union and the United Nations to support mechanisms to investigate and document such crimes and emphasised protection and resettlement for affected communities.
Pakistan: 13 TTP militants killed in border clashes; Nine civilians killed in cross-border attacks since February; Info Minister Tarar says militants increasingly targeting civilians
On 02 May, Dawn and The News International reported that Pakistan’s military killed 13 militants linked to the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan in two foiled infiltration attempts along the Pak-Afghan border in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR). Eight militants were killed in Mohmand and five in North Waziristan, as security forces repelled incursions from across the border. The military reiterated concerns over the Afghan Taliban failing to prevent the use of Afghan soil for attacks. The operations are part of Pakistan’s ongoing Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, launched in February amid rising cross-border violence and militant infiltration.
Separately, officials in Bajaur reported that at least nine civilians, including women and children, have been killed in cross-border attacks since February, with more than a dozen injured and homes destroyed. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar condemned the attacks as deliberate targeting of civilians, while rejecting Afghan claims that Pakistan was responsible for strikes inside Afghanistan. Authorities say militants have increasingly targeted civilian areas following setbacks against security forces, raising concerns over escalating tensions along the border.
Pakistan: Militant violence in Pakistan declines for the second straight month, according to PICSS
On 01 May, Dawn reported that Pakistan recorded a second consecutive month of declining militant violence in April 2026, according to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS). The report documented 85 militant attacks, down from 146 in March - a 42 per cent decrease - while fatalities fell from 106 to 60, reflecting improved security indicators following intensified operations, including Operation Ghazab lil-Haq. Militants accounted for the majority of 291 combat-related deaths, while security forces’ casualties dropped significantly. Regional trends showed improvements in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - particularly its tribal districts - and a sharp decline in Balochistan. No attacks were reported in Punjab, Sindh or Islamabad. Despite the downturn, analysts caution that militant groups remain active, and the security situation, while stabilising, continues to be fragile.
Pakistan: US awards F-16 radar support contract
On 02 May, Dawn reported that the United States Air Force awarded a USD 488 million contract to Northrop Grumman for long-term engineering and technical support of F-16 radar systems, with Pakistan among the partner nations included. The contract, covering APG-66 and APG-68 radar systems, will run through March 2036 under the Foreign Military Sales programme and includes multiple allied countries. Initial funding of USD 2.64 million has been allocated, with work to be carried out in Maryland. Officials said the arrangement reflects the continued US commitment to maintaining operational readiness of F-16 fleets across partner air forces.
Pakistan: Islamabad rejects British diplomat's remarks on Pak-Afghan border as "one-sided"
On 02 May, Dawn reported that the Foreign Office pushed back against a social media post by British Special Representative for Afghanistan Richard Lindsay, who had expressed concern over violence along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, including strikes in Kunar province. FO Spokesperson Tahir Andrabi described the remarks as "devoid of a deeper understanding of the situation," stating that cross-border aggression and terrorist infiltration from the Afghan side had continued unabated despite Pakistan's temporary pause in Operation Ghazab lil-Haq announced in March 2026. Andrabi said that since the pause, cross-border attacks and TTP activities had resulted in the martyrdom of 52 civilians and 84 injuries, and rejected Afghan claims of civilian casualties from Pakistan's responses as lacking evidential credibility. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar separately described Afghan Taliban attacks targeting civilians in KP's border districts as "unacceptable and barbaric," pointing to specific incidents, including a quadcopter attack that injured three civilians playing cricket in Bajaur.
Pakistan: Media bodies warn of rising curbs on press freedom in Pakistan
On 04 May, Dawn reported that media organisations and civil society groups raised alarm over growing restrictions on press freedom and increasing risks to journalists in Pakistan on World Press Freedom Day, with a joint statement by bodies including the Pakistan Broadcasters Association (PBA), All Pakistan Newspapers Society (APNS), and Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists (PFUJ) highlighting harassment, arrests, violence, censorship, and editorial interference. The statement, which was also endorsed by the Council of Pakistan Newspaper Editors (CPNE) and the Association of Electronic Media Editors and News Directors (AMEND), noted that media outlets faced both direct and indirect pressure, including the use of government advertisements to influence editorial policy, restrictions on information flow, and removal of dissenting voices from broadcast platforms, while also drawing attention to risks faced by journalists in conflict zones globally.
Separately, civil society groups in a letter to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned that legal tools such as the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) were increasingly used to intimidate journalists, citing at least 58 cases filed over the past year, alongside economic pressures, layoffs, and informal censorship practices that have fostered self-censorship. While PM Shehaz and President Asif Ali Zardari reaffirmed their commitment to press freedom and responsible journalism, rights groups stressed that stronger legal protections and institutional reforms were urgently needed.
Pakistan: Human Rights Commission of Pakistan flags growing curbs on freedom
"State of Human Rights in 2025" highlights restrictions on freedom of expression, erosion of judicial independence and expanded detention powers, among others
On 04 May, Dawn and The Express Tribune reported that the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) launched its annual report, "State of Human Rights in 2025", warning of a severe contraction of civic space, erosion of judicial independence, and deepening insecurity across the country. Presenting the report in Islamabad, HRCP officials said the state of human rights had reached one of its lowest points, citing enforced disappearances, suppression of dissent, and increasing restrictions on freedom of expression.
The report highlighted the growing use of legal mechanisms, including amendments to the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) and anti-terror laws, to target journalists, activists, and political workers, contributing to a climate of fear and self-censorship. It also raised concerns over expanded detention powers under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) and a decline in judicial independence following the passing of the 27th Amendment. The report also highlighted continued reports of extrajudicial killings, discrimination against vulnerable groups, and the impact of counterterrorism operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
Despite these concerns, the HRCP noted some limited progress, including legislation on minority rights and child protection, as well as court rulings advancing women’s rights. However, it stressed that these gains were incremental and insufficient to offset broader structural challenges, warning that persistent insecurity, climate-related disasters, and institutional weaknesses continue to undermine the protection of fundamental rights in Pakistan.
Pakistan: Nine suspects killed in Crime Control Department encounters across Punjab
On 06 May, Dawn reported that nine suspects were killed in three separate encounters with the Crime Control Department (CCD) across Punjab. In Faisalabad, four suspects were claimed by police to have been shot dead by their own accomplices during a confrontation near Sem Nullah, with all four identified as proclaimed offenders with records across multiple districts. In Jaranwala, two suspects were killed in similar circumstances near Chak 63 GB, with one alleged to have 45 cases against him. In Chiniot, three suspects died of gunshot wounds after an encounter in a crop field near Baghra Sadat village following a reported dacoity, with police claiming the men were also shot by their own accomplices. In all three incidents, police attributed the deaths to friendly fire from fleeing accomplices, a pattern that has drawn scrutiny in past encounter cases across the province.
Pakistan: Corps Commanders' Conference stresses restraint and sovereignty as ceasefire remains fragile
On 05 May, Dawn reported that the 275th Corps Commanders' Conference, presided over by Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir at General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, reiterated that regional peace and stability were "intrinsically linked to collective restraint, responsibility and respect for sovereignty," with the forum acknowledging Pakistan's continued role in advocating stability amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. On Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, the forum noted continued degradation of terrorist networks and infrastructure, and strongly rejected Afghan Taliban claims of Pakistani strikes on civilians as a "coordinated disinformation strategy." During the conference, Field Marshal Munir directed commanders to maintain the highest levels of operational readiness in the face of evolving conventional and non-conventional threats.
Pakistan: Police briefly detain Aurat March activists in Karachi
On 05 May, Dawn reported that Karachi police briefly detained seven Aurat March activists near the Karachi Press Club before later releasing them on the orders of Sindh Home Minister Ziaul Hasan Lanjar. The activists had gathered to hold a press conference to demand official permission for their annual Aurat March planned for 10 May at Sea View. Activists Sheema Kirmani and Shahzadi Rai were among those detained. Aurat March organisers said police blocked access to the press club and stopped activists before the press conference started. The group said the authorities were trying to stop peaceful activism and silence dissent. They also asked the Sindh government to explain the arrests and the delay in permitting the march. Rights activists questioned why restrictions under Section 144 were being used against peaceful gatherings and press conferences. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan criticised the detentions and said they showed growing restrictions on freedom of expression and peaceful assembly in the country. The development highlights increasing concerns about civic freedoms and women’s rights activism in Pakistan.
Pakistan: Analysts warn future India-Pakistan conflict could become more dangerous
On 06 May, Dawn reported that US and international experts warned that future conflicts between India and Pakistan could become more dangerous and difficult to control. Reports by groups such as The Washington Post and the Congressional Research Service said the May 2025 conflict showed a new type of limited war using drones, missiles and air power instead of a ground invasion. Experts warned that both countries may now think they can fight limited wars without causing nuclear escalation. They also raised concerns about water tensions after India placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance following the 2025 attack. Pakistan said that any attempt to stop or reduce water flows would be treated as an “Act of War”. Experts added that future conflicts could escalate more quickly because of shorter response times and the risk of miscalculation. These developments highlight growing security concerns in South Asia and fears that future India-Pakistan tensions could become harder to manage peacefully.
Pakistan: Taliban’s policy to provide safe haven to militant groups has been exposed, said CDF Munir
On 05 May, The News International reported that Pakistan’s military leadership accused the Afghan Taliban regime of providing safe havens to militants during the 275th Corps Commanders’ Conference, chaired by COAS/CDF Asim Munir in Rawalpindi. According to a statement from the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the forum said the Taliban’s alleged policy of sheltering Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups was “backfiring” and rejected Kabul’s accusations that Pakistan was targeting civilians inside Afghanistan, describing them as part of a coordinated disinformation campaign. The military also reaffirmed support for Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, stating that Pakistan’s actions remained focused on infiltrators, militant hideouts and support infrastructure amid ongoing cross-border tensions and a broader resurgence in militancy along the frontier.
The Middle East
The War in Gaza: Washington set to shut flagship mission as Trump plan faces setbacks
On 02 May, Reuters reported that the US is planning to close its Civil-Military Coordination Centre near Gaza, a key part of President Trump’s plan to monitor the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and coordinate aid. The move comes as the broader plan faces setbacks with continued Israeli military operations and Hamas’ refusal to disarm. CMCC’s functions will likely be absorbed into a US-led International Stabilization Force , though diplomats have expressed doubts about whether this shift will make a difference. The centre has faced criticism for lacking the authority to enforce the ceasefire, and international participation has reportedly declined. The restructuring is also expected to reduce the number of US personnel. Despite official denials, the development points to ongoing difficulties in sustaining the truce and managing humanitarian coordination in Gaza.
THE US - IRAN WAR
DAY 64
US: The Trump administration circumvents the Congressional approval for arms sales worth USD 8.6 billion for allies in the Middle East
On May 02, Reuters reported that the Trump administration was bypassing the US Congressional review for military sales of over USD 8.6 billion for its allies in the Middle East, including Israel, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait. Marc Rubio, the US Secretary of State, stated that “An emergency existed that required immediate sales to those countries and waived the congressional review requirements for the sales.”
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Tehran wants to postpone nuclear negotiations later, while Trump insists Iran will not develop nuclear weapons
On 02 May, Reuters reported that Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease maritime disruptions has been rejected by President Trump, with Tehran suggesting that nuclear negotiations be postponed to a later stage. The proposal aimed to end the ongoing conflict by ensuring that the US and Israel would halt further attacks, while Iran would reopen the strait and the US would lift its blockade. However, Washington has maintained that any agreement must first guarantee that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons. Simultaneously, tensions have intensified over maritime actions. Trump described US naval operations enforcing the blockade as “like pirates,” followed by the seizure of Iranian-linked vessels. The situation continues to drive uncertainty in energy markets and delay diplomatic resolution.
DAY 67
Washington says ceasefire is in place despite renewed hostilities
On 04 May, Reuters reported that the United States and Iran had launched new missile and drone attacks as both sides escalated efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a fragile ceasefire. Washington’s “Project Freedom” seeks to reopen the strategic waterway for stranded commercial vessels, but the initiative has triggered retaliatory Iranian strikes, including attacks on shipping and UAE energy infrastructure. The renewed hostilities have heightened fears of broader regional escalation, disrupted maritime trade, and added fresh pressure to global oil markets already strained by prolonged instability.
On 05 May, Reuters also reported that Washington said the fragile ceasefire remains in place despite an exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz during US naval operations to escort commercial vessels. Washington stated that “Project Freedom” had secured limited passage through the strategic waterway, while Iran accused Washington of violating truce terms. On the same day, the US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was quoted as saying, "We're not looking for a fight, Right now the ceasefire certainly holds, but we're going to be watching very, very closely."
Strait of Hormuz: US and the Arab states to push for a UNSC resolution
On 05 May, Reuters reported that Washington and Gulf Arab countries are drafting a UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran for obstructing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The resolution is co-drafted with Bahrain and supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. It would push Iran to cease attacks on merchant shipping and disclose the locations of sea mines. The US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, described it as a “narrower effort” focused on disruptions to global trade and said negotiations would take place this week after an earlier resolution was blocked by Russia and China. The draft, under Chapter VII, could lead to sanctions if Iran fails to comply, while also calling for a humanitarian corridor through the strait. It appears to form part of a broader US strategy to increase diplomatic pressure and plan for post-conflict arrangements. Simultaneously, Washington has proposed a multinational Maritime Freedom Construct, which aims to secure navigation and coordination through a Franco-British mission involving around 30 countries. This move follows renewed clashes, including US strikes on Iranian boats and missile attacks on a UAE oil port, which have affected the ceasefire. Reuters also reported that South Korea is reviewing whether to join US-led navigation efforts after an explosion on a Korean-operated vessel, HMM Namu in the strait. While Trump blamed Iran for the incident, Seoul said the cause remains under investigation. South Korea emphasised that “freedom of navigation should be protected under international law.” Authorities confirmed no casualties, but the 26 South Korean vessels stranded in the region highlight the growing risk to shipping routes.
Iran-UAE tensions: Abu Dhabi restricts airspace after Iranian missile and drone strikes
On 05 May, Reuters reported that the UAE imposed airspace restrictions after an Iranian missile and drone attack. The UAE's Ministry of Defence said that its air defence systems engaged 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones launched from Iran. The emirate of Fujairah said an Iranian drone sparked a large fire at the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone, which injured three Indian citizens. India's Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement that this attack on Fujairah was unacceptable and called for the immediate cessation of hostilities and targeting of civilian infrastructure. The UAE restricted flights to only a select number of approved routes until at least 11 May. It also activated emergency security protocols, according to Notices to Air Men (NOTAMs) published by its General Civil Aviation Authority. Multiple flights were also diverted to Saudi Arabia and Oman after the UAE said that its air defences were engaging Iranian drones and missiles.
Iran’s nuclear programme: Tehran’s nuclear stockpiles and enriched uranium largely intact and weapons development timeline unchanged, says Reuters, referring to the US intelligence assessments
On 05 May, Reuters reported that the US intelligence assessments indicate that two months of US-Israeli strikes have only caused limited additional damage to Iran’s nuclear program, with Tehran’s estimated timeline to develop a nuclear weapon remaining broadly unchanged at up to one year. While key enrichment facilities were previously degraded, Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains largely intact and unverified. The findings suggest that military actions targeting conventional assets have done little to significantly delay Iran’s nuclear capabilities, reinforcing calls within Washington for a negotiated resolution.
DAY 68
US–Iran ceasefire deal gains momentum; New framework hints at removal of Tehran’s enriched Uranium, says CNN
On 07 May, CNN reported that the United States and Iran are edging closer to a potential ceasefire agreement, with both sides reviewing a draft one-page memorandum to end the ongoing conflict in the Gulf. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the proposed framework would formally declare a halt to hostilities while initiating a 30-day window for further talks on unresolved issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. The diplomatic push has gained momentum in recent days, with Pakistan playing a key mediating role by facilitating communication between Washington and Tehran. US officials have expressed cautious optimism, noting that previous negotiations have collapsed at critical moments. The proposed deal is expected to include provisions such as a temporary halt on uranium enrichment and the removal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, though specifics remain under discussion. US President Donald Trump has emphasized diplomacy as the preferred path forward, even announcing a pause in certain military-linked operations to support negotiations. Iran has indicated it will respond soon, raising hopes that a ceasefire could be within reach if both sides agree on the core terms.
The Strait of Hormuz: US and Bahrain table UNSC resolution; A second UAE LNG vessel crosses the Strait
On 05 May, Reuters reported that the United States and Bahrain have tabled a revised UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran halt attacks and remove threats to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while avoiding explicit authorization of force to reduce the risk of Chinese and Russian vetoes. Secretary of State Rubio was quoted on the same, stating, “Everyone wouldn't want to see this vetoed again, and we've made some slight adjustments to the language, I don't know if it will avoid a veto or not, I think it's a real test to the UN as something that functions.” Washington is also simultaneously rallying allies behind a proposed “Maritime Freedom Construct” to secure commercial shipping through the chokepoint. The diplomatic push comes as renewed Gulf tensions continue to disrupt global energy flows and test the fragile regional ceasefire. On 06 May, Reuters also reported on a CMA CGM container ship that was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, injuring eight crew members. The attack, reportedly caused by an Iranian projectile, forced medical evacuations and further disrupted traffic through the strategic waterway, where shipping has largely stalled. In addition, Reuters reported that a second ADNOC-managed LNG tanker had crossed the Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing US-Iran tensions. Ship-tracking data showed the tanker Mraweh near Indonesia after going dark in April, suggesting a covert transit similar to that of an earlier ADNOC vessel. Analysts say evasive navigation tactics remain common as regional instability persists, though the crossing offers tentative signs that some Gulf energy flows may be gradually resuming despite continued maritime risks.
Africa
Chad: Boko Haram attack kills at least 24 Chadian soldiers near Lake Chad
On 06 May, Africa News reported that at least 24 Chadian soldiers were killed and 46 wounded in an overnight attack by Boko Haram militants on an army post in the Lake Chad region of Chad. The assault targeted the Barka Tolorom military base on the shores of Lake Chad, an area long used as a refuge by Boko Haram and rival extremist factions including Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). President Mahamat Idriss Déby offered condolences to the families of the victims and vowed to continue military operations against militant groups “with renewed determination”. The attack follows a resurgence in violence by Boko Haram’s JAS faction in recent months, despite previous Chadian military offensives claiming the group no longer had sanctuary within the country.
Democratic Republic of Congo: Amnesty report details mass atrocities by ADF rebels in eastern DR Congo
On 04 May, Al Jazeera reported that Amnesty International accused the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The report, titled “I’d Never Seen So Many Bodies: War Crimes by the Allied Democratic Forces in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo”, detailed widespread killings, abductions, forced labour, sexual violence and child recruitment based on interviews with 71 witnesses and survivors. The report documented brutal attacks in North Kivu, including one in Ntoyo village where more than 60 civilians were killed, as well as incidents of forced marriage, torture and the burning of medical facilities, underscoring a pattern of systematic abuse against civilians. Amnesty warned that delayed or insufficient responses by security forces have left communities vulnerable, urging the Congolese government and international partners to strengthen civilian protection, improve early warning systems and ensure accountability for ongoing abuses.
Eswatini: Taiwan leader visits Eswatini amid diplomatic pushback
On 03 May, Africa News reported that Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te arrived in Eswatini for a state visit aimed at reinforcing ties with one of Taipei’s few remaining diplomatic allies amid growing pressure from China. Lai held talks with King Mswati III and attended a military welcome ceremony, with both sides signing a Customs Mutual Assistance Agreement and issuing a joint communiqué affirming continued cooperation. During the visit, Eswatini reiterated its support for Taiwan’s participation in international organisations, while Lai emphasised Taiwan’s sovereignty and its right to engage globally, underscoring the island’s efforts to maintain diplomatic recognition as Beijing intensifies efforts to isolate it internationally.
Mali: Mali probes military complicity in recent attacks as rebels seize key town
On 02 May, Africa News reported that Malian authorities are investigating alleged collusion between some military personnel and armed groups following a wave of coordinated attacks by jihadists and separatists that mark the most intense escalation in over a decade. Prosecutors said there was “solid evidence” that serving and former officers were involved in planning and executing the assaults alongside Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), which targeted multiple locations including Bamako. The developments come amid major battlefield setbacks, with separatists claiming control of the strategic northern town of Tessalit following the withdrawal of Malian and Russian Africa Corps forces, days after the fall of Kidal and the killing of Defence Minister Sadio Camara. The crisis has also seen militant-imposed blockades around the capital, disrupting travel and supplies, as junta leader Assimi Goita vowed to continue operations to restore control.
Mali: NIM fighters attack major prison and tighten blockade around Mali’s capital
On 07 May, Al Jazeera reported that fighters from the Al Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) stormed the Kenieroba Central Prison near Bamako and set fire to food trucks heading to the capital as violence escalated across Mali. The prison, which houses around 2500 inmates including high-value militant suspects, came under attack amid a broader offensive launched by JNIM and Tuareg separatists from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) that recently captured the northern city of Kidal and killed Defence Minister Sadio Camara. The military government has since launched widespread arrests targeting military officers, opposition figures and civil society members accused of links to the attackers, while the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights warned of alleged extrajudicial killings and abductions by security forces. JNIM has also imposed checkpoints around Bamako, raising fears of a humanitarian crisis as food supplies struggle to reach the capital.
Nigeria: Abuja plans repatriation amid violence against nationals in South Africa
On 04 May, BBC reported that Nigeria is preparing to repatriate its nationals from South Africa who wish to return voluntarily, as concerns grow over escalating anti-immigrant violence, with Foreign Minister Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu confirming that at least 130 Nigerians have already registered for evacuation flights and warning that attacks marked by xenophobic rhetoric and violence against foreign-owned businesses could worsen. The move comes as Nigeria formally protests the killings of its citizens and summons South Africa’s envoy, while President Bola Tinubu has prioritised the safety of Nigerians abroad and demanded accountability for recent incidents. The unrest, which has also seen Ethiopians and other African nationals targeted, reflects rising tensions in South Africa over migration, unemployment, and crime, with President Cyril Ramaphosa condemning the violence but urging respect for local laws, even as critics warn that deepening xenophobia risks straining regional relations.
Nigeria: Nigerian and Beninese militia raid kills dozens of Fulani herders in Nigeria
On 05 May, Africa News reported that dozens of ethnic Fulani herders were killed in a joint operation involving a state-backed militia, the military and Beninese vigilantes in Nigeria’s Niger state, with local sources alleging the victims were targeted as suspected informants for the al-Qaeda-linked Ansaru group. Community leaders said at least 41 people were killed during raids on herding settlements around Kabe, where security personnel reportedly conducted door-to-door operations, arresting young men and shooting those who resisted, while additional arrests were carried out with the involvement of the vigilantes. The incident underscores rising tensions between security forces and Fulani communities, who are often stigmatised amid Nigeria’s broader conflict with bandits and jihadist groups, with analysts warning such reprisals risk fuelling further radicalisation and deepening cycles of violence and displacement.
Sudan: Drone strike kills five civilians in Khartoum amid renewed violence
On 02 May, Al Jazeera reported that a drone strike attributed to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed five civilians in Khartoum, according to the NGO Emergency Lawyers, marking the second such attack in the capital within a week after months of relative calm. The group accused the RSF of violating international humanitarian law, noting a broader pattern of civilian-targeted strikes, with UN data indicating nearly 700 civilian deaths from drone attacks in early 2026. The incident comes despite the Sudanese military previously declaring Khartoum “completely free” of RSF control, as fighting continues elsewhere, particularly in Darfur and Blue Nile state, raising fears of a prolonged and fragmented conflict that has already displaced around 14 million people and left millions in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
Sudan: Sudan accuses Ethiopia and UAE of backing drone strikes on Khartoum airport
On 05 May, BBC reported that Sudan accused Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of orchestrating drone strikes on Khartoum’s main airport and nearby military installations, describing the assault as “direct aggression”. Sudan’s army claimed it had “conclusive evidence” that drones involved in Monday’s attack were launched from Bahir Dar airport in Ethiopia and linked them to Emirati support, while Khartoum recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia for consultations. Ethiopia rejected the allegations as “baseless”, and the UAE has previously denied supporting the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The strikes disrupted operations at the airport, which had recently resumed international flights after months of relative calm following the Sudanese military’s recapture of much of Khartoum from the RSF last year.
Sudan: UAE denies role in Khartoum Airport drone attack as regional concerns grow over foreign involvement
On 06 May, Reuters reported that the United Arab Emirates denied Sudan’s allegation that an Emirati drone was used in Monday’s attack on Khartoum airport. Sudan claimed the drone had been launched from Ethiopia. They also accused the UAE of continuing to support the Rapid Support Forces. Sudan’s army spokesman said images and flight paths showed Emirati-owned drones taking off from Ethiopia’s Bahir Dar airport and striking several locations in Sudan in March and May. Sudanese officials also said they were prepared to respond to the alleged violation. The UAE rejected the allegation, describing it as a way to shift blame and hinder the peace efforts. Egypt and Saudi Arabia condemned the attack on Khartoum airport. The airport had recently reopened to flights. They also warned against interference by Sudan’s neighbours
Europe and the Americas
Cuba: US expands sanctions on the government
On 02 May, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump signed an order to increase sanctions on the Cuban government. The new measures target people, companies, and groups linked to Cuba’s security system, as well as those involved in corruption and human rights violations. The sanctions can also affect foreign companies that work with these groups. The move is part of US efforts to put more pressure on Cuba, especially after recent developments linked to Venezuela. US officials said the aim is to limit the Cuban government’s financial and security networks. Cuba strongly criticised the decision, calling the sanctions unfair and harmful to its people. Cuban leaders said the measures increase pressure on the country. The development shows rising tensions between the United States and Cuba and reflects a tougher US approach towards the Cuban government.
US and Germany: Washington announces troop withdrawal from Germany
On 01 May, Reuters reported that the US announced it would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, marking a reduction in its military presence in Europe amid growing tensions with NATO allies over the Iran conflict. The Pentagon said the withdrawal would take place over six to twelve months, bringing troop levels closer to those before the 2022 buildup following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decision follows a public disagreement between US President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. German officials had criticised the US approach to the Iran war, prompting Washington to describe recent German remarks as “inappropriate and unhelpful Germany currently hosts around 35,000 US troops, making it the largest American military base in Europe. The withdrawal is expected to include a brigade combat team and the cancellation of planned deployments, including a long-range fires battalion. The move reflects broader tensions between the US and its European allies, with Washington urging NATO members to increase defence contributions and support operations to secure key routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz. Officials indicated that further troop reductions in countries such as Spain and Italy remain under consideration as part of a wider reassessment of US military posture in Europe.
The War in Ukraine: Kyiv accuses Russia of violating proposed ceasefire
On 06 May, Reuters reported that Ukraine accused Russia of breaking a ceasefire announced by Kyiv only hours after it started. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces continued attacks, drone strikes and air assaults even after Ukraine declared a temporary pause in fighting from midnight on 5-6 May. Ukrainian officials said there were many violations during the ceasefire period. The ceasefire followed Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of a separate truce for 8-9 May during Russia’s Victory Day events. Ukraine said it supported peace efforts but accused Russia of continuing military actions while talking about peace publicly. Reports said Russian attacks damaged infrastructure and caused civilian deaths and injuries in different parts of Ukraine. The development highlights the deep mistrust between Russia and Ukraine and shows how difficult it remains to achieve even short-term peace agreements in the ongoing war.
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By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
Vaneeta
Kavithasri M
Mallika Joseph
Rohini Reenum
Padmashree Anandhan
Tiara Marie Warjri
GP Team
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IPRI Team
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Harini Madhusudan
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Poulomi Mondal
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IPRI Team
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GP Team
GP Team
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Padmashree Anandhan
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GP Team
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Padmashree Anandhan
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STIR Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
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Naina Singh
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Amit Gupta
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GP Team
IPRI Team
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STIR Team
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GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
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Apoorva Sudhakar
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Jeshil J Samuel
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Anu Maria Joseph
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GP Team
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Akriti Sharma
Avishka Ashok
Apoorva Sudhakar
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GP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
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GP Team
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Avishka Ashok
Harini Madhusudan
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GP Team
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GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
Harini Madhusudan
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Harini Madhusudan
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GP Team
Savithri Sellapperumage
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GP Team
GP Team
Harini Madhusudan
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Srikumar Pullat
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GP Team
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Lokendra Sharma
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Harini Madhusudan
Samreen Wani
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Jenice Jean Goveas
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