NIAS Global Politics, Young Voices (GPYV)

CWA # 2097
NIAS Global Politics, Young Voices (GPYV)
President Trump and the US-China Trade Tensions
Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

Amb Raghavan’s analysis of multilateralism in a bipolar world validates strategic autonomy across every field.

Kirsten Wilfred Coelho
12 May 2026
Photo Source:

With reference to the tremendous trade deficit that the US has with China, President Trump claimed that China has “ripped off” the US for years. Recent moves by the Trump administration to further isolate itself from Chinese imports have led to an anti-China narrative, stronger than any other such trade tactic in recent years. However, the US deficit does not seem to budge despite excessive taxation and is instead shifted to other nations worldwide, such as India, Mexico, and Vietnam.

The Trump tariffs and newer trade ties, such as the India-European Union Free Trade Agreement, highlight the shifting nature of global trade. It highlights the need to address stagnating deficits while also preparing for the uncertainty of the future. Many economists see a need for countries like India to boost regional ties to address faltering trade balances.

Trump and Tariffs: Four Major Issues
First, while one may assume that tariffs severely affect foreign economies, a significant portion of the toll is borne by American citizens. A study by the Tax Foundation found that the average American would pay roughly USD  1,000 extra in 2025 and USD  1,300 extra in 2026 due to tax changes. Further, the effect was rather wide-ranging, since even older or higher-income families experienced losses of roughly USD 31,900 annually. 

Second, the actions undertaken by Donald Trump since Liberation Day have shown a dominance of political economics over evidence-backed measures. Several economists have been forced to repeatedly explain that the American economy is consumption-driven rather than export-reliant. Household spending accounts for 70 per cent of US GDP, further defining the US’s role in the global economy as a major buyer. This also accounts for the US dollar’s role as a financial reserve.

Third, the use of “reciprocal tariffs” is a relatively new idea in managing global customs and taxes. Several experts have noted that a significant portion of the tariffs is not merely reciprocal but largely asymmetric. Many have even questioned the rationale behind the current figures since they exceed the required amount.

Fourth, tariffs indirectly, and perhaps intentionally, rearrange global supply chains by promoting narratives such as China Plus One (C+1). This consequently leads to inefficiencies in global markets, since establishing new trade routes and logistics is a costly affair. This could require stronger policy planning not just from the US administration but also from nations across the globe who could capitalise on a shifting market.

Trump’s Tariffs and the US: Ambassador Raghavan’s Insights
Amb PS Raghavan's analysis of the “Mandate for Leadership: Project 2025”, a manifesto developed by Republican-affiliated bodies that outlines their goals and initiatives, provides insights on the above.

First, Amb Raghavan noted that the Trump administration is neither isolationist nor globalist but rather a straightening out of economic imbalances. This conclusion, drawn from a deep understanding of the Trump 1.0 era, explains that the Republican regime is looking to reclaim supply chains and boost US autonomy rather than continue to fuel the perceived overreliance on other nations. Amb Raghavan views Trump’s stance as largely pragmatic since it is practically enforced.

Second, he explores the prominent idea among Republicans that the Americans have been “used” and that other nations have been free riding on American “munificence.” The extensive spending that the US engages in has created cash flows for several countries, and the MAGA philosophy views this negatively. There is, hence, even more demand for the re-organisation of global markets. Amb Raghavan cites social conservatism as a natural predecessor to such thought. 

Third, this could be seen as the end of forked-tongue politics. Amb Raghavan sees an opportunity in such relations with the USA, especially for India, given that Trump is rather straightforward about his plans and would not necessarily repeat the troubles that Indian diplomacy had with prior regimes. Further, the need for newer allies and changing business ties creates sufficient room for India to satisfy Republican financial ambitions.

A Critique of Amb Raghavan’s Inputs
Amb Raghavan’s view has largely materialised over the past year during the Trump 2.0 era and proves to be a convincing analysis of the situation. First, countries like India must now prioritise bilateral ties and the use of regional intergovernmental organisations. This is essential, given the mercurial nature of Trump politics. China, for example, achieved a trade surplus of USD 1.2 trillion in February 2026, despite the scathing tariffs it has faced. Such a dominant position is only possible via spreading out one’s business ties.

Second, economists and national financial ministries must plan ahead for an uncertain future. The rise in social conservatism over the past few years is now manifesting itself in a number of ways, and smaller economies could be forced to bear the toll of such changes. Hence, it is essential that, keeping with the above recommendation, smaller economies also prioritise secure trade ties.

Third, Amb Raghavan offers a beautiful analysis of multilateralism in a bipolar world. His recommendations, as well as the proven failure of US tariffs to curb domestic deficits, have shown that global economics cannot be reduced to a handful of factors. This complexity is rather positive, as it validates strategic autonomy across every field. Recent and ongoing challenges to the petro-dollar system are yet another proof of the need for a non-aligned stance.

About the author

Kirsten Wilfred Coelho is currently pursuing an undergraduate degree at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 


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