The US-Iran War

CWA # 2100
The US-Iran War
The Hormuz Strait and the Fertilizer Crisis in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

The Middle East possesses abundant natural gas reserves, which are pertinent to the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers.

Aishal Hab Yousuf
14 May 2026
Photo Source:

In April 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a fertilizer crisis. Reports from the BBC indicate that roughly a third (30-35 percent) of traded fertilizer passes through the Strait. These disruptions have affected exports from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, causing delays, increased insurance costs, and induced shipping shortages. What began as an energy crisis devolved into food insecurity, especially for fragile economies dependent on imported fertilizers. Al Jazeera and Reuters reported surging fertilizer prices amid global anxiety over prolonged instability in the Middle East.

Fertilizers and the Strait of Hormuz: What is the link?
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most significant maritime routes, through which major producers in the Middle East transport ammonia and urea that are critical for the production of fertilizers. The Middle East possesses abundant natural gas reserves, which are pertinent to the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers. As a natural consequence, the Middle East became one of the world’s largest fertilizer-exporting hubs.

The closure of the Strait displayed the complex interdependence of energy and food systems. Rising energy prices have increased fertilizer production costs worldwide. In addition, the physical disruption to exports reduced availability in international markets. According to The Guardian, the crisis exposed the vulnerabilities of this current state, which are two-fold. The first is noting the vulnerability of global agriculture to geopolitical choke points, and the second is the concentration of supply routes.

South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: How is the closure affecting the two regions?
The most affected are developing and underdeveloped countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in countries like Ethiopia and Sudan, the delayed fertilizer shipment coincided with the key planting season, threatening a major decline in crop yields. Staple crops such as rice, maize, and wheat were highly dependent on the fertilizer imports for their production. The fertilizer shortage could significantly reduce productivity.

In South Asia, 22 percent of Sri Lanka's fertilizer imports come from the Middle East. Analysts predict that the current crisis may lead to a 10-15 percent drop in yields for the current cropping season. Bangladesh is currently going through its planting season, ‘Aman’. During this time, urea prices increased by a staggering 54 percent, pushing the entire supply chain to raise prices.

Reuters has noted that rising fertilizer prices could intensify food inflation, making basic staples more unaffordable for poorer households. In most developing economies, staple food accounts for a substantial share of household expenditure. Therefore, even a modest price increase has socio-political implications. According to Genevieve Donnellon May’s analysis for the South China Morning Post, over 40 percent of families in South Asia belong to lower-income groups. Thus, the consequences of high inflation-related prices would include a risk of poverty and malnutrition.

What has been the response?
The Hormuz crisis has accelerated calls for more resilient agricultural systems. Governments are exploring greater regional fertilizer production, particularly in Africa, to reduce reliance on imports.

According to Reuters, the US has prioritized maritime security operations, akin to the Black Sea grain initiative during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. China and Russia have turned towards protectionism. While Beijing has tightened controls and inspections on fertilizers earmarked for export, Moscow has reduced fertilizer exports altogether.

Sub-Saharan Africa is now exploring the potential for greater fertilizer production and diversifying suppliers. Exploration of other viable shipping routes is now considered a strategic priority.

Smaller island states like Sri Lanka and the Maldives have sought external help from friendly countries. Colombo called on Beijing and New Delhi to address the fuel and fertilizer crisis.

The Bretton Woods institutions have attempted to contain the crisis through financial measures. The World Bank has warned about worsening fertilizer affordability. In addition, the International Monetary Fund has explored emergency financing mechanisms for vulnerable economies.

REFERENCES:
“Diplomatic Push Underway on Hormuz Fertiliser Proposal, UN Says, as Shortages Bite,” Reuters,  13 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diplomatic-push-underway-on-hormuz-fertiliser-proposal-un-says-as-shortages-bite-2026-04-13/ 

“Analysis: Iran War Fertiliser Squeeze Could Spell Trouble for Next Year’s Grain Harvests,” Reuters, 27 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/analysis-iran-war-fertiliser-squeeze-could-spell-trouble-next-years-grain-harvests-2026-04-27/ 

“From Surplus to Strain: World Rice Supply Threatened by Iran War, El Niño,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/surplus-strain-world-rice-supply-threatened-by-iran-war-el-nino-2026-04-30/ 

“IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance amid Middle East Energy Disruptions,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/imf-warns-asia-keep-policy-balance-amid-middle-east-energy-disruptions-2026-04-30/ 

“Chevron CEO Says Shortages in Oil Supply Will Begin Appearing,” Reuters, 4 May 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-ceo-says-physical-shortages-oil-supply-begin-appearing-2026-05-04/ 

“Africa Particularly Vulnerable as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply Chains, Say Experts,” The Guardian, 16 March 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/16/africa-particularly-vulnerable-iran-conflict-disrupts-supply-chains 

Stewart, Heather, “Energy Shock Talk Grabs Headlines but the Iran War Is Also Driving the World Towards a Food Crisis,” The Guardian, 22 March 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/22/energy-shock-iran-war-also-driving-world-towards-food-crisis 

Malik, Nesrine, “How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Affecting African Economies,” The Guardian, 15 April 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/apr/15/us-israel-war-iran-african-economies 

Lowell, Hugo. “US Intelligence Sees Direct Attacks by Iran on Oil Tankers as Greater Risk Than Mines.” The Guardian, 11 March 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/attacks-iran-oil-tankers-strait-hormuz 

“Fertiliser Shortages Will Have ‘Dramatic’ Effect on Global Food Prices, Warns Farming Boss.” The Guardian, 6 May 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/06/fertiliser-shortages-iran-war-global-food-prices-farming 

“Four in Five Britons Worried Iran War Will Make Food More Expensive, Poll Finds.” The Guardian, 6 May 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/06/iran-war-food-prices-expensive-inflation-poll 
 

 

About the author

Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai.


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