CW Column

CWA # 2120
CW Column
Conflicts in the Middle East
The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations

Brighty Ann Sarah
29 May 2026
Photo Source:

In the news
On 20 May, Iran published new maps depicting extended control over the Strait of Hormuz region, insisting that the traffic in the region be controlled by Tehran’s newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority, in coordination with Oman and the UAE. 

On 21 May, President Trump asserted that the US will recover Iran’s stock of enriched Uranium, stating that the US will “destroy it after we get it, but we're not going to let them have it.” 

On 23 May, Trump wrote on social media that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran is "largely negotiated.”

On 24 May, senior Iranian officials stated that Iran's nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary agreement, Tehran’s spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei reiterated the same. 

On 25 May, the US Central Command launched attacks in southern Iran against targets including boats attempting to lay mines and ⁠missile launch sites, in what it described as defensive actions. 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry called the US strikes a "gross violation" of the ceasefire and a "show of bad faith," accusing Washington of undermining ongoing Doha negotiations, where an Iranian delegation including Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf were in talks with Qatar's prime minister on a potential deal with Washington.

On 27 May, Washington launched overnight strikes at an Iranian ground control station in Iran's Bandar Abbas, and shot down four Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz region. In retaliation, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted a US airbase near Bandar Abbas,stating that the responsibility of the attack lay with the “aggressor.” 

On the same day, Trump, in a cabinet meeting at the White House, accused Iran of attempting to stall political negotiations in view of Washington’s upcoming mid-term elections in November, in an attempt to achieve favourable terms. He asserted that he did not care about the midterms and that Washington is willing to ‘out-wait’ Tehran. 

On 28 May, reports emerged that the US and Iran have reached an agreement on a memorandum of understanding to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, and the draft is awaiting President Trump’s approval.

Issues at large
1. Renewed hostilities and the fragile ceasefire
The US strikes against Iran, and the retaliatory actions that followed, mark the most serious breach of the ceasefire agreement reached in early April. Although US forces have maintained that the strikes were carried out in self-defence, it has significantly undermined an already fragile truce. The timing of the attacks further intensifies the diplomatic fallout, as they occurred while the Iranian delegation was engaged in indirect talks in Doha aimed at securing a political resolution with Washington. 

2. Persisting points of contention in negotiations
The latest diplomatic framework proposes a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire, along with the lifting of restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the draft deal, Iran would allow unrestricted commercial shipping through the strait, while the US would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and ease some sanctions on Iranian oil sales. However, the proposed agreement falls short of resolving several core points of contention that have repeatedly undermined previous diplomatic efforts. The most significant sticking point remains Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its broader nuclear program. Iran insists on its sovereign right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, while Washington demands the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

The situation is further complicated by Israel’s ongoing war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has demanded an end to hostilities on all fronts as a precondition for a comprehensive deal, yet Israel has intensified its military operations despite a ceasefire. Iran’s attempts to assert unilateral control over the Strait of Hormuz, countered by firm US opposition to any such authority, add another layer of complexity. Additionally, Washington remains reluctant to provide substantial sanctions relief or release frozen Iranian assets without securing a more comprehensive and favorable agreement. These unresolved issues continue to create deadlocks, casting serious doubt on whether the current draft can be accepted by both Tehran and Washington.

3. Trump’s gamble to “out-wait” Tehran with no end in sight
Despite acknowledging the political stakes of the prolonged Iran conflict in the upcoming midterm elections, President Trump has doubled down on his unyielding stance against Iran, declaring his willingness to outwait Tehran for as long as necessary until Washington’s demands are fully met. This position starkly contradicts his administration’s initial claims that the war would be swift and decisive, especially as the conflict has now dragged on for months with repeated stalemates. Trump has also proposed new conditions, such as requiring Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab states to join the Abraham Accords and normalising ties with Israel, a highly unrealistic demand in the current climate. This stance risks prolonging the conflict indefinitely and increasing the chances of further escalation with no clear end in sight.

In perspective
First, temporary respite without a lasting resolution. While the latest proposal, if approved by Washington and Tehran, marks a considerable achievement in halting active hostilities and restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, it leaves many of the central underlying problems unaddressed. Without a comprehensive deal on core issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s continued military operations and occupation in Lebanon, and the long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of renewed tensions and escalations remain high.

Second, internal pressures in Washington and war liability. The Trump administration is under increasing pressure over the protracted Iran conflict, which was originally intended to be a swift military operation but has now stretched into its fourth month amid repeated stalemates. Despite the administration's bid to continue hostilities until all goals are achieved, mounting domestic war fatigue, public dissatisfaction, volatile oil prices and the looming 2026 midterm elections threaten Republican control of Congress. With Republicans currently holding narrow majorities in both chambers, a Democratic takeover could severely limit Trump’s goals for Iran, triggering oversight investigations, and weakening his position heading into the 2028 cycle.

About the author

Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.


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