CW Note

CWA # 2124
CW Note
The Crisis in Cuba:
The US Sanctions, Energy Crisis, and Economic Instability

Glynnis Winona B
29 May 2026
Photo Source:

In the news
On 17 May, Axios, a digital news source based in the US, claimed that Cuba had bought more than 300 military drones from Russia and Iran, which could possibly be used to target US naval bases.

On 18 May, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on 11 senior officials in Havana, including cabinet ministers, military generals, and Communist Party elites. In response to the drone claims, Cuba’s foreign minister, Bruno Rodriguez Parilla, stated that the claims are fabricated and that the US would use the allegations as an opportunity to justify more sanctions. Further, President Diaz-Canel warned that any US military aggression would lead to a bloodbath.

On 20 May, the US Justice Department announced criminal charges against the former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Discussions regarding this case had already been ongoing. The US has accused them of murder for shooting down two unarmed civilian planes. In Havana's defense, they claim that the shootdown was a response to repeated violations in Cuba’s airspace. Trump declared that there would be "no escalation" after the charges were made public.

On 21 May, the US Supreme Court ruled 8–1 against four cruise companies and ordered them to pay a fine of USD 440 million. The court ruled that using a port in Havana is illegal because Fidel Castro's government took it over after the 1959 revolution.

On 22 May, Marco Rubio called Cuba a national security threat and stated that a peaceful agreement is unlikely. Protests erupted in Cuba in support of Raul Castro following his indictment by the US.

Issues at large
1. The energy collapse and human cost
Cuba’s energy crisis began in January 2026, following the US intervention in Venezuela. The capture of Maduro cut off the subsidized oil that Venezuela has been sending to Cuba. In 2025, Venezuela supplied around 26,500 bpd, which covers a quarter of Cuba’s total needs. After the intervention, the US introduced new actions to stop other countries from supplying oil to Cuba. Major suppliers of oil to Cuba backed out in fear of sanctions. This worsened the condition, and Cuba completely ran out of fuel and diesel. People now face power cuts up to 22 hours a day. These blackouts have affected basic needs such as food, commuting, and healthcare.

2. Increasing economic pressure due to sanctions
The US sanctions have contributed to the worsening economic condition of Cuba. Recently, the US expanded its pressure by targeting key sectors like energy, defence, mining, banking, and security. A major focus is GAESA, a military-run business group that controls a large part of Cuba’s economy. These sanctions have scared off foreign banks and shipping companies, as they risk losing access to the US financial system if they continue dealing with Cuba. As a result, many shipments to the island have stopped. This has increased food prices and made shortages even worse. At the same time, legal pressure is also growing. A recent US court ruling ordered cruise companies to pay a fine for using Cuban ports. Overall, the sanctions increase risks for any company doing business with Cuba.

3. The US indictment and the increased political pressure are significant developments.
The charges against Raúl Castro were prepared earlier, but the US chose to announce them on Cuban Independence Day, as the timing appears to be significant. The indictment appears to be part of a broader strategy to pressure the Cuban government. It signals that the US is willing to take stronger steps, possibly even military action. Some US officials have openly suggested that the charges could justify removing Castro from power.

The prospect of hosting talks to ease tensions seems unattainable. President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed that Cuba is open to discussions aimed at finding solutions but also made it clear that Cuba’s political system is not open for negotiation. Cuban officials have stressed that leadership positions and internal governance are not up for discussion. At the same time, Díaz-Canel noted that negotiations require willingness from both sides. The US increases pressure through threats and sanctions, even though it keeps in touch.

In perspective
First, the indictment shows a clear shift in US strategy. Charging a former leader on Cuba’s Independence Day signals that Washington no longer sees Cuba as a partner for normal diplomacy. Instead, the pressure campaign has moved to the next phase. The increasing legal, economic, and military pressure will eventually lead to regime change. The key aspect to watch is how soon the US will attempt to achieve regime change.

Second, Cuba’s military is currently facing a challenging situation. The Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces are the only institution strong enough to either defend the government or manage a transition. But their situation is weakening. The energy crisis has reduced their capacity to operate, and sanctions have affected their economic base.

Currently, the US is prioritizing Iran, which reduces the likelihood of immediate military action. It is in Cuba’s hands to negotiate or resist and protect its position. This choice is likely to shape what happens next more than any diplomatic talks easing the situation.

About the author

Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengalur


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