CW Note

CWA # 2180
CW Note
Iran after Ali Khamenei
Institutional resilience, Anti-American sentiment and an Unresolved conflict

NIAS Conflict Weekly, Vol. 7, No. 339, 10 July 2026

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
10 July 2026
Photo Source:

In the news
On 03 July, Ali Khamenei's coffin was placed on public display outdoors beneath a glass enclosure; his three sons, Masoud, Meysam and Mostafa, attended the funeral processions; Mojtaiba Khamenei, his other son and Supreme Leader, did not attend. 

On 04 July, Trump stated that Iran was “dying to settle” and that Washington had granted “a week off for a funeral because we’re nice.” On 06 July, he stated that either a deal would be reached or the US would "finish the job." 

On 06 July, thousands accompanied the coffins from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi Square. An effigy of President Trump was hanged along the way, stones were reportedly thrown at a billboard bearing his image, and people carried placards that read “there will be blood.”

On 07 July, mourners gathered at Jamkaran Mosque, just south of Qom, with ceremonies scheduled to continue in the cities of Najaf and Karbala in Iraq, before the final burial in Khamenei's hometown of Mashhad.

Issues at Large
1. Ali Khamenei and his legacy
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei served as the Supreme Leader of Iran from 1989 to 2026. He was a close associate of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was actively involved in the 1979 Iranian revolution and held the office of President from 1981 to 1989, before becoming the Supreme Leader. During his 37-year tenure, Khamenei consolidated the authority, building a vast administrative apparatus and exercising influence over the military and judiciary. Tehran’s relations with the West remained largely adversarial, marked by repeated flashpoints over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, and regional activities. Under his leadership, Iran expanded its regional network and influence through the ‘Axis of Resistance’, including countries and non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, the Houthis, and the Bashar al-Assad-led Syrian government. He also oversaw the growth of Iran’s defence, missile and nuclear capabilities, such as building and expanding facilities like Natanz and Fordow, against the backdrop of near-continuous sanctions throughout his tenure.

2. The post-Khamenei political transition and the regime survival
The US-Israeli strikes killed a major part of Iran’s senior leadership, including Tehran’s Defence Minister, the IRGC Commander-in-Chief, Chief of the General Staff, and Security chief, but the chain of authority in the country seems to have held. Post the strikes, a three-person interim council assumed leadership duties, IRGC command passed to former Quds Force chief Ahmad Vahidi. On 08 March the Assembly of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the Supreme Leader. Additionally, provincial administrations, state broadcasting and religious institutions remained operational, presenting an image of institutional continuity throughout the leadership transition. 

3. Anti-American sentiment and public support for the regime in Iran
Historically, while there has been wide public support for the regime, anti-government protests have persisted, including the 1999 student protests, 2009 green movement protests, and most recently, the 2022 to 2023 Masha Amini protests. On the other hand, hostility toward the US has been a defining feature of the regime, further sharpened since the Gaza war and the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Khamenei’s funeral drew large crowds; displays of anti-American and anti-Israeli banners – further solidifying the image of national unity and resistance, indicating a greater national mobilisation caused by the conflict. 

4. Continuing US-Iran war
President Trump’s remarks through the funeral period were escalatory. In response, senior officials in Iran also made statements condemning and returning threats. Against this backdrop, reported strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz drew further US strikes, escalating into further rounds of attacks, putting the already fragile MoU into question. Trump's continued rhetorical volatility of victory, threats of annihilation or ultimatums has become a recurring variable that exacerbates the existing uncertainty and tensions surrounding the conflict. 

In perspective
Ali Khamenei's most significant contribution is the strengthening of Iran’s institutions over three decades, which dealt with the death of its supreme leader and senior commanders without state collapse and reorganised within days to establish continuity. Today, Tehran presents the succession as evidence of stability, unity, and resilience against America. However, Mojtaba Khamenei's absence from public view since his appointment raises questions about the extent to which this image reflects the underlying political reality.

Second, public sentiment toward the regime is projected as uniform and consolidated. The scale of mourning and the prominence of anti-American displays argue for a regime still commanding loyalty and support. However, whether these displays reflect broader public opinion remains difficult to assess. 

Third, the current escalations and consistent violations of the MoU by both sides suggest that the conflict is likely to persist. Iran's longer-term trajectory hinges on whether Mojtaba Khamenei exercises the authority that the state claims he holds and whether the 60-day MoU negotiating framework survives.

About the author

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.


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Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan