CW Review

CWA # 2184
CW Review
UNHCR Global Trends Report 2025: 
Four takeaways on Forced returns, Collapsing protection, Protracted crises

NIAS Conflict Weekly, Vol. 7, No. 339, 10 July 2026

Deb Dutta
10 July 2026
Photo Source:

On 11 June, UNHCR released its Global Trends report on forced displacement in 2025. According to the report, 117.8 million people were displaced worldwide at the end of 2025, a drop of 5.4 million from the previous year. It is the first decline in global displacement in a decade. But the report warns this fall is not a sign of crises ending. Most of it came from refugees being pushed out of host countries, often back into unsafe conditions at home.

The following are five key takeaways on the state of global displacement in 2025, based on the UNHCR report.
1. Forced returns, not by the resolution of crises drove the decline in global displacement 
Global displacement fell to 117.8 million in 2025; however, the UNHCR's report cautions against reading this as progress. The decline was driven by a surge in returns: 14.7 million people went back to their countries or areas of origin, the second-highest figure on record. Most of these returns happened under pressure, not by choice. 

In Afghanistan, nearly 2.9 million people were forced back after Iran and Pakistan tightened deportation policies, with returns from Iran sometimes exceeding 40,000 people a day in July 2025. In Syria, 1.3 million refugees returned following the fall of the Assad government, into a country where 90 per cent of the population still lives in poverty. Sudan saw 651,500 returns even as war continued elsewhere in the country. 

The UNHCR report notes that over 90 per cent of all refugee returns in 2025 went to just three places: Afghanistan, Syria, and Sudan. All of which remain fragile and unsafe.

2. Executive order restricted the refugee entry, leading to a decline in resettlement in 2025
According to UNHCR's estimates, in 2025, there were 2.9 million refugees who needed resettlement. But fewer than three out of every hundred got resettled. The resettlement usually comes at the end of the chain for the most vulnerable refugees, especially tortured persons, vulnerable women and girls, and those who cannot go back home safely.
According to the report, in 2025, resettlement and sponsorship helped only 81,800 refugees get settled down, representing a 57 per cent decrease from 188,800 refugees in 2024. This became the lowest number since 2011. This dramatic decline was caused by the situation in the US, where the resettlement of refugees fell by 89 per cent as a result of the executive order restricting entry for most refugees. The leading resettlement states were Canada and Australia. But even they were unable to compensate for this decline. In addition, 

3. High median time in asylum; women and girls stay displaced longer than men
Displacement is often imagined as a temporary emergency. The data says otherwise. Nearly 70 per cent of the world's refugees are in "protracted" situations; displaced for five years or more with no durable solution in sight. A UNHCR analysis of eastern and southern Africa found the median time spent in asylum is just under 16 years; close to an entire childhood. Family size matters more than age; families of five or more remain displaced for almost 19 years, while single people leave the system in under six. Women and girls stay displaced longer than men, nearly 17 years versus just over 14. In response, UNHCR launched a "50 by 35" initiative, aiming to halve the number of aid-dependent refugees in protracted displacement by 2035. An admission that the old model of short-term emergency aid was never built for crises that last this long.

4. The IDPs, not refugees, make up the largest and least protected share of the displaced
By December 2025, 68.7 million people were displaced within their own nations due to conflict and violence, 58 per cent of the world’s displaced population and almost twice the global number of refugees. Of these displaced individuals, 9.1 million were in Sudan alone, which represents the largest internal displacement crisis in the world, despite a 21 per cent reduction compared to 2024. Since the internally displaced have not crossed any international borders, they are therefore excluded from the protections of the 1951 Convention. 

Taken together, these findings suggest that the apparent decline in global displacement reflects coercion and fragility rather than resolution. The systems meant to protect the displaced, from asylum to resettlement, are increasingly unable to keep pace with need.

References
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025. Copenhagen: UNHCR, 11 June 2026.

About the author

Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.


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STIR Team

Space Tourism
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Lakshman Chakravarthy N

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Mahesh Bhatta

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December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
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Harini Madhusudan

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South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
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Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

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