Conflict Weekly

Conflict Weekly
The US-Iran War I UNCLOS and the South China Sea Award
Review of the UN SDG Report 2026

NIAS Conflict Weekly, Vol. 7, No. 340, 17 July 2026

NIAS Global Politics Team
17 July 2026
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CW Note
The US-Iran War, Week 20:
Renewed Strikes, Collapsed MoU and the Blockade of the Strait

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

In the news
On 08 July, President Trump declared that the US-Iran ceasefire was “over,” after clashes broke out between the two countries following Tehran’s strikes against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington’s retaliatory strikes on 07 July. Additionally, the US reinstated previously lifted oil-related sanctions on Iran. 

On 10 July, Trump said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks’”; Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman denied that new negotiations had been requested. 

On 11 July, the IRGC said that the Strait of Hormuz was closed.

On 12 July, US Central Command (CENTCOM) refuted that the Strait was closed, saying, “Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.”

On 13 July, President Trump said the US would take over the Strait of Hormuz and that it should be reimbursed for controlling and providing protection of the waterway at a rate of 20 per cent on all cargo shipped. 

On 14 July, President Trump said he had decided to scrap the 20 per cent toll, but would continue to blockade Iran’s ports. Additionally, Trump stated to Fox News that the US and Iran held talks despite attacks.

On 15 July, Trump threatened to expand US strikes on Iran in the upcoming weeks if Tehran does not agree to a deal amid a continuing dispute over the Strait of Hormuz; “Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges,” he said.

Beyond these developments, the US and Iran exchanged multiple strikes between 07 and 15 July.

Issues at large
1. The collapse of the MoU 
The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, however tentative, has effectively unravelled. The agreement established the following provisions: IAEA supervision, termination of “all types” of sanctions, termination of military operations on all fronts, removal of the US naval blockade, and the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This structure offered each side relative gains: Washington gained oversight of Iran's nuclear programme, and Tehran secured economic relief. Measured against this baseline, all provisions of the MoU have been violated or left unfulfilled. Additionally, Trump's explicit declaration that the ceasefire was "over” and the sustained intensification of hostilities over the week further illustrate the MoU’s collapse. 

2. Renewed escalation 
Beyond the collapse of the MoU's individual provisions, the week is characterised by renewed escalations on the ground. Strikes moved from targeted exchanges to near-daily confrontations, with both sides reporting attacks on dozens of targets. The strikes by the US have focused on Iran’s air defence systems, coastal radar sites, and missile and drone capabilities, focusing on southern, eastern, and coastal provinces. Iran's strikes have extended to US military assets and defence infrastructure in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, and Qatar, as well as any “unauthorised” vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike the post-MoU violation on 27 June, where the ceasefire persisted nominally, alongside sporadic strikes regarding the Strait of Hormuz, this week is marked by sustained and intensifying exchanges.

3. Confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait has displaced the nuclear question as the conflict’s central point of contestation. Nuclear inspections, the conflict’s focal point once the MoU was signed, do not drive the confrontation; the renewed cycle of strikes instead traces to Iran's attack on commercial vessels in Hormuz on 07 July, with the conflict organised around control of the waterway and the flow of traffic through it. Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait and Washington's decision to enforce a blockade of Iran’s ports and coastal areas represent a regression in the conflict. Additionally, both parties are asserting competing claims over the energy corridor: CENTCOM's assertion that "traffic is flowing" through Hormuz, against Iran's claim of having closed it, exemplify the increasing contention over the Strait.

In perspective
First, the memorandum of understanding, which was already fragile, does not seem to hold in any meaningful manner, with nearly all its provisions violated. Additionally, the conflict appears to have reverted to a pre-MoU context of contradictory statements, strikes on US military bases in the Gulf by Iran, strikes on Iran’s defence capabilities by the US, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a US naval blockade and threats to civilian infrastructure. The week’s developments highlight that the conflict has essentially reverted to a new square one.

Second, the Strait of Hormuz occupies the centre of contestation again. The renewed escalation tied to Iran’s attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent imposition of a naval blockade by the US, closure of the Strait by Iran, and proposed levies on cargo travelling through the Strait – all demonstrate the reiteration of Hormuz as a determining element of the conflict.

Third, given the week's developments, the conflict appears likely to persist rather than move toward resolution. Trump's repeated assertions that Iran has sought talks, denied by Iran’s Foreign Ministry, alongside his claim that talks were held even as strikes continued, against a backdrop of intensifying strikes, make a de-escalation difficult to anticipate or ascertain.


CW Note
UNCLOS and the South China Sea Arbitral Award:
Ten Years Later

Aparna A Nair

In the news
On 11 June, fourteen countries issued a joint statement on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award between the Philippines and China. It includes the US, Philippines, Australia, Canada, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The statement reiterated that China’s expansive maritime claims have no legal basis. It also urged that maritime disputes must be resolved peacefully in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and not with ‘historical right.’ The signatories opposed the use of the coast guard or the military and the disruption of the lawful activities of other states at sea. The statement also urged compliance with the 2016 arbitral award and resolving disputes through lawful mechanisms consistent with international law.

On 12 June, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated China’s sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea and over internal waters, territorial seas, contiguous zones, exclusive economic zones, and continental shelves of those islands. The statement highlighted China’s historic rights in the South China Sea and its commitment to upholding its territorial sovereignty. It also added that land territorial issues are not subject to UNCLOS. Rejecting the 2016 arbitral ruling, China described the award as “a worthless piece of paper that is illegal, null and void, and has no binding force.”

Issues at large
1. The competing territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea
The dispute revolves around multiple overlapping territorial and maritime claims by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. Among these, China claims the largest portion of the sea through its nine-dash line, making it the most contentious claimant. The dispute centres on claims over islands, reefs and surrounding water such as the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Over the years, the claimants have constructed facilities, reclaimed lands and deployed coast guards and naval forces to expand their presence. The South China Sea is one of the world’s busiest shipping routes with abundant fisheries and potential oil and gas reserves. Additionally, countries such as the US emphasise freedom of navigation in the region

2. The legal dispute over maritime entitlements under the 2016 arbitral award 
In 2013, the Philippines initiated an arbitration proceeding against China under UNCLOS. It sought to clarify its maritime rights and the legal status of disputed features in the South China Sea. In 2016, the tribunal stated that China’s claims to ‘historic rights’ within the nine-dash line are incompatible with UNCLOS, and that the disputed features do not qualify as islands with full exclusive economic zones. The tribunal also found that China interfered with the Philippines' sovereign rights in fishing and petroleum exploration, engaged in large-scale artificial island construction, and caused environmental damage.

3. China’s rejection and non-adherence to the ruling vs. the Philippines' reliance on the arbitral award to assert its maritime rights 
China claims historical sovereignty over the South China Sea islands, rejects compulsory arbitration, and maintains that the dispute should be addressed exclusively by the directly concerned parties. Beijing highlights that the Tribunal lacked jurisdiction because the dispute was on territorial sovereignty and maritime delimitation, which should be settled through negotiation rather than arbitration. On the other hand, Manila views the 2016 arbitral award as a legal victory and as a foundation of its South China Sea policy. The Tribunal also recognised that features such as Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal belong to the Philippines' exclusive economic zones and continental shelf. The award was used to challenge China’s actions that are not in accordance with UNCLOS and to garner international community diplomatic support. Additionally, the country maintains that the rule is legally binding and should be respected, not rejected by the concerned parties.

In perspective
First, the contestation over the 2016 arbitral award highlights the limits of international law. The South China Sea is now a theatre where the rule-based international order and national interests are contested. China challenges the UNCLOS and the 2016 arbitral award on the grounds of its historical sovereignty and national interest. The inability to enforce the award and Beijing’s refusal to recognise the adverse ruling draw attention to the limitations of international law. In this case, to reduce tension, sustained dialogue, confidence-building measures, and progress on the “ASEAN-China code of conduct” are required. Accidental escalations stemming from repeated military or coast guard encounters will have implications for regional security and global commerce.

Second, Internationalisation of the dispute. The joint statement of fourteen countries shows the South China Sea is not just a regional territorial and maritime dispute but one of international concern. The region's relevance in global trade, freedom of navigation, and the need to defend against an adverse ruling made it a matter of global concern. While these countries maintain this view, China continues to oppose foreign interference.


CW Review
The SDG Annual Report 2026:
Six takeaways on a decade of SDG monitoring, global progress, and key challenges

Preetha Renganarayanan

On 07 July 2026, the United Nations released the ‘Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026,’ its annual assessment of global progress towards achieving the 2030 Agenda. The report examines progress across the 17 SDGs and 169 targets using the latest global data. This year's report notes that meaningful gains have been made across several indicators, including social protection, health, electricity and internet access; however, progress remains uneven. Conflicts, climate change, slowing economic growth, rising debt burdens and declining development assistance have been identified as the key sticking points hindering progress. 

With the next four years being the decisive window for the 2030 Agenda, the report calls for urgent action by increasing investment, international cooperation, energy transition, access to technology and data, gender equality, and commitments to peace.

The following are six key takeaways from the report.
1. Improved access to electricity, internet, health, and social protection as key SDG achievements in the past decade
Improved access to basic services stood as the major success basket in the last ten years. As per the report, nearly 92 per cent of the world's population now have access to electricity, and approximately one-third of global electricity is generated from renewable sources. Internet access has increased from 40 per cent in 2015 to 74 per cent in 2026. In terms of health outcomes, new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths have come down by nearly one-third, and 134 countries have achieved the target for reducing child mortality. Social protection has reached a historic milestone with more than half of the global population covered by at least one social protection benefit for the first time. The report frames these achievements as reaffirming the central idea of the 2030 Agenda: progress is achievable when strong policies, political will and adequate investment come together.

2. Progress across the SDGs is meaningful but remains uneven and insufficient
Despite meaningful SDG progress, several fundamental development challenges persist. One in ten people still face extreme poverty, 2.3 billion remain food insecure, 2.1 billion lack safely managed drinking water, over 150 million children remain stunted, and maternal mortality is close to three times higher than the global SDG target. The report also notes that one in five people globally continues to face "everyday discrimination," limiting human potential. Implementation gaps remain stark, with 49 per cent of SDG targets progressing too slowly and 15 per cent regressing below their 2015 baseline. Together, these findings reflect that while gains have been made across several indicators, the world is not on course to achieve the 2030 Agenda.

3. Climate change, conflict, and declining development finance as the biggest challenges to achieving the 2030 Agenda
The report argues that the shortfalls in achieving the 2030 Agenda are worsened by the compounding effects of planetary and human-made crises. It identifies climate change, conflict and declining development assistance as collectively reversing decades of development progress. Violent conflict has reached its highest level in decades, forcibly displacing 118 million people worldwide. Climate change continues to expand development risks, with 2025 becoming one of the warmest years on record and atmospheric carbon dioxide reaching its highest concentration in nearly two million years. On development finance, the report notes that 2025 saw official development assistance decline by a record 23 per cent, severely impacting the poorest countries. As developing countries confront an annual SDG financing gap of around USD 4 trillion, global military spending continues to reach record highs. The report therefore calls for integrated solutions, highlighting the close links between climate, conflict and development finance.

4. Historic expansion of data infrastructure amid persistent gaps in gender, climate, and peace data
With 2026 marking a decade of monitoring the SDGs, the report highlights progress in data tracking as a significant but lesser-known achievement. It notes that the global capacity to monitor SDGs has transformed significantly over the past decade. In 2016, nearly half the SDG indicators lacked sufficient data; today, there is a global repository of three million data points covering almost every SDG indicator. The report attributes this progress to stronger national statistical systems, harmonised methodologies and wider use of administrative and geospatial data. At the same time, it observes continuing measurement gaps. Currently, less than one-third of indicators for gender equality, sustainable cities, climate action, and peace and justice have sufficient trend data, hindering effective decision-making. Nonetheless, the progress in SDG monitoring stands crucial as it allows for clarity and precision in tracking, targeting and accountability.

5. The growing importance of Artificial Intelligence in SDG monitoring
Artificial intelligence receives dedicated focus this year through a standalone section titled 'SDG monitoring in the AI era: Renewing official statistics for people, trust and sovereignty,' immediately following the introduction. The report frames AI as both an opportunity and a challenge. It highlights AI's growing role in supporting data collection, quality assurance and statistical analysis, quoting a study that shows that AI is now used across the full life cycle of a survey. At the same time, it warns of risks from misinformation, synthetic data generation and declining trust where official statistics are unavailable. The report also examines AI governance by raising questions over whose data are used, what realities are represented and who controls these systems. It flags that as AI use increases, so does the risk to countries' sovereignty over their data ecosystems. Consequently, the report argues that AI adoption must reinforce the values underpinning official statistics i.e. professional independence, transparency, methodological rigour, accountability and protection of confidentiality.

6. The final four years as a decisive window for achieving the 2030 Agenda
With only four years left to achieve the 2030 Agenda, the coming years stand as a decisive period in determining whether the SDGs remain achievable. The report emphasises that the SDGs remain the "most effective blueprint" for peace, prosperity and sustainability, and argues that they must return to the centre of global decision-making. It identifies three priority areas: reforming the international financial architecture, debt relief, and increasing access to affordable finance. The report also calls for immediate implementation of the Sevilla Commitment on development financing and the Medellín Framework for strengthening data systems to ensure that vulnerable communities remain the primary focus. Finally, it adopts an optimistic outlook, with the evidence presented affirming that the SDGs remain achievable given political will, adequate investment and collective action.

 


CW Newsmakers This Week
The Saudi Arabia-Houthi flare-ups in Yemen:
Reviving old wounds and the risk of renewed conflict

Brighty Ann Sarah

On 13 July, Reuters reported that a sharp military escalation broke the roughly four-year truce between Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia, marking the first major direct confrontation in years. The flare-up began with airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport in Northern Yemen. Yemen’s internationally recognized government, which derives strong support from the Saudi-backed coalition, claimed responsibility for the attacks. They stated that the strikes were meant to prevent the landing of the Houthi delegation returning after the funeral of Iran's late Ayatollah in Sanaa. The Houthis blamed the Saudi-backed coalition, which stated that they were acting at the request of Yemen’s government. In swift retaliation, the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Abha International Airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree described the assault on Abha as a direct response to the "criminal Saudi aggression." The BBC stated that Saudi air defenses successfully intercepted the incoming projectiles, preventing major damage. The exchange has broken a de facto truce that had largely held since March 2022.

Yemen has endured over a decade of civil war and proxy conflict since the Houthis seized Sanaa and forced the recognized government southward. The current phase began in 2014-2015 amid Yemen's political instability following the 2011 Arab Spring uprising, which ousted longtime president Saleh. The Houthis, a Zaydi Shia movement from northern Yemen, seized the capital Sanaa in late 2014, allied temporarily with Saleh, and forced President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi to flee. In 2015, at Hadi's request, Riyadh formed and led a military coalition including the UAE and other Arab states to intervene. The stated goals were to restore Hadi's government and prevent increased Iranian influence in the region. The Saudi-led coalition launched Operation Decisive Storm in 2015, marked by intense airstrikes, a naval blockade, and later ground support. However, the campaign culminated in one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with widespread civilian casualties, famine risks, cholera outbreaks, and infrastructure destruction.

The Houthis, bolstered by Iranian support, launched severe attacks on Saudi territory, while internal coalition fractures emerged, notably between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as Abu Dhabi extended its support to Yemeni factions, including southern separatists. Saudi Arabia faced mounting international criticism, economic costs, and domestic pressure to exit from Yemen. In 2022, under UN and Omani mediation, Riyadh shifted toward de-escalation. A nationwide truce was announced in April 2022. The fragile truce has largely held in terms of direct Saudi-Houthi clashes. However, it remained precarious due to unresolved core issues including power-sharing, Houthi disarmament, economic reconstruction and the status of the internationally recognized government. The current resumption of strikes threatens the revival of the long-drawn conflict, plunging the region in yet another military escalation.

("Houthis fire missiles at Saudi Arabia, breaking years of calm," Reuters, 13 July 2026; "Yemen's Houthis launch missiles at Saudi Arabia after strikes on Sanaa airport," BBC, 13 July 2026; "Conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea," Council of Foreign Relations, 14 April 2026; "A Timeline of the Yemen Crisis, from the 1990s to the Present," Arab Centre Washington DC, 19 February 2021")

 

CW Newsmakers This Week
Wildfires in Canada: 
800 plus fires across the country with indigenous communities facing the heat 

Preetha Renganarayanan

On 16 July, Reuters reported that smoke from hundreds of wildfires across Canada spread over large parts of the US Midwest and Northeast, with health advisories urging residents to remain indoors and avoid exposure to hazardous air. As per officials, there are over 858 active wildfires across Canada including 111 classified as out of control, and mostly concentrated in the central provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Ontario. Around 5.9 million acres (2.4 million hectares) have already burned this season, surpassing the area affected in Canada at the same time last year. Emily Fisher, an atmospheric chemist and professor at Colorado State University stated that “This is a direct connection to climate change.”

The fires have intensified over the past three weeks with Ontario requesting federal assistance on 16 July to evacuate residents from remote northern communities. "The wildfire situation has escalated significantly over the last three weeks across the country, and particularly in Northwestern Ontario," stated PM Mark Carney. "Thousands of people have been ⁠forced to evacuate their communities, not knowing if their homes will survive,” he added. As per reports from Reuters, the wildfires have disproportionately affected remote Indigenous communities. According to Indigenous Services Canada, nearly 1,600 people from First Nations communities had been evacuated by 15 July. 

Recently, IQAir stated that Detroit along the US-Canada border recorded the world's worst air quality with a pollution index of 600 which is twice the level classified as "hazardous" by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Further, federal data showed dangerous smoke levels across the US states of Minnesota, Michigan, northern Illinois, northern Ohio and Ontario in Canada, with hazardous readings in major cities including Minneapolis, Milwaukee and Toronto. 

Climate experts have stated that rising global temperatures are increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally. Given that wildfire smoke can remain airborne for weeks and travel thousands of miles, it is more toxic than normal air pollution. Studies also show a link between wildfire smoke and increased risks of heart attacks, strokes, cancer, pregnancy complications and weakened immune defenses, highlighting the growing human and public health consequences of climate-driven wildfires.
(“Canada wildfire smoke blankets US Midwest, Northeast with hazardous air,” Reuters, 16 July 2026; “Ontario seeks federal support for evacuations as wildfires devastate remote Canadian towns,” Reuters, 16 July 2026)

CW Newsmakers This Week

The International Criminal Court:
Under the US campaign to dismantle it

Priyanka Makhijani

On 13 July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a sweeping campaign to dismantle the alleged threat posed by the International Criminal Court to US sovereignty, involving a whole-of-government response to systematically disable the court's operations In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, as reported by CNN, Rubio put it bluntly: 'Using all the tools at our government's disposal, working beside every ally with whom we can make common cause, we will dismantle the ICC - brick by brick, if necessary.’

As per CNN, Rubio accused the ICC of waging a war against America through 'the force of so-called international law.’ The State Department argues the court poses an intolerable threat to US sovereignty by claiming authority to prosecute and imprison American servicemen and officials acting on behalf of US national interests. As per Time report, Tension escalated sharply after the ICC prosecutor opened an investigation into possible Israeli war crimes in Gaza, and the court issued arrest warrants for PM Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024. Legal experts have pushed back against this framing, arguing that the ICC does not claim jurisdiction over US conduct, and that Rubio was using 'sovereignty' to shield Americans from accountability while ignoring other nations' right to invoke the court for crimes on their own territory.

The campaign includes diplomatic calls urging non-member nations to take similar action, visa revocations and travel bans for ICC personnel, and increased sanctions against the court and affiliated organisations. Sanctions have already been imposed on ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan and several judges, later expanded to include UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese and three Palestinian human rights groups. A former US sanctions official suggested Washington may eventually sanction the tribunal as a whole, framing it as a pre-emptive step against future ICC action, potentially involving Venezuela. 

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is a permanent international tribunal headquartered in the Hague, Netherlands. It was established by the Rome Statute, which was adopted in 1998 and entered into force in 2002. It prosecutes individuals rather than states, for serious international crimes such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It acts as a court of last resort when national courts are unwilling or unable to prosecute. It has 120+ member states (excluding the US, China, and India). Cases can be referred to the court by member states, the UNSC, or initiated by the ICC's own Prosecutor. It issues arrest warrants, but it has no police force of its own and relies on member states to make arrests.
("State Department Launches Campaign to Dismantle International Criminal Court's Threat to American Sovereignty," US Department of State, 13 July 2026; "Trump Administration Vows to Dismantle the International Criminal Court," Time, 14 July 2026; "Rubio Vows to 'Dismantle' International Criminal Court," CNN, 13 July 2026; "Marco Rubio Launches Campaign to Dismantle International Criminal Court," The Guardian, 14 July 2026)

CW Newsmakers This Week
Typhoon Bavi:
The havoc across the Pacific and East Asia

Acsah H

On 14 July, Reuters reported that Super Typhoon Bavi, a powerful Category 5 storm, slammed the US Pacific Islands and the Northern Mariana Islands. Packing winds of up to 180 mph, the storm caused widespread destruction, evacuations, and severe flooding across the Pacific and East Asia. According to NASA, Bavi was the second super typhoon of the 2026 Pacific typhoon season, having formed as a minor tropical disturbance on 25 June east-southeast of Kwajalein between Micronesia and the Marshall Islands.

On 06 July, Reuters reported that Bavi struck Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, damaging infrastructure but causing no casualties. It was the second major typhoon to hit the Marianas this season after Typhoon Sinlaku in April. On 11 July, Bavi made landfall in China's Zhejiang province before weakening into a tropical storm. As it moved inland, the primary threat shifted from destructive winds to heavy rainfall and widespread flooding across eastern and northern China.

The typhoon impacted China, the Philippines, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Taiwan, and parts of Japan. On 10 July, Al Jazeera reported that although Bavi (locally known as Typhoon Inday) did not make landfall in the Philippines, it intensified monsoon rains, triggering landslides that killed at least 15 people in Sarangani and Lanao del Sur. The Philippine weather agency, PAGASA, issued flood alerts extending to Manila. On 12 July, Focus Taiwan reported that Taiwan closed schools and offices, evacuated more than 14,000 people, and recorded 135 injuries. On 10 July, the South China Morning Post reported that heavy rainfall disrupted flights in Japan and caused power outages in Okinawa. On 13 July, Xinhua reported that China raised its flood alert to yellow, evacuated nearly 2.7 million people, suspended schools and construction across several provinces, and cancelled hundreds of flights and more than 1,600 train services. The scale of evacuations and emergency measures reflected one of China's largest disaster responses this typhoon season.
(“Super Typhoon Bavi,” NASA, 14 July 2026; ‘Typhoon Bavi weakens to tropical storm as it slams into eastern China,” Al Jazeera, 12 July 2026; “Typhoon Bavi makes landfall in eastern China's Taizhou after nearly 2 million evacuated,” Reuters, 11 July 2026; “More than 260,000 evacuated as Typhoon Bavi brings severe floods,” Reuters, 14 July 2026; “Typhoon Bavi batters eastern China, threatens days of heavy rain,” Reuters, 12 July 2026; “Philippines landslides kill 15 as Typhoon Bavi threatens region,” Al Jazeera, 10 July 2026; “Super Typhoon Bavi strikes US Pacific islands with pummeling winds,” BBC, 06 July 2026; “Typhoon Bavi leaves at least 135 injured; barrier lake alert lowered,” Focus Taiwan, 12 July 2026)


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May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan