CWA # 2298
CW Newsmakers
The Houthi-Saudi Arabia escalation I Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa crisis
Ethiopia and Eritrea tensions I South Africa's anti-migrant unrest I Drone strikes in Sudan
Conflict Weekly #353, Vol 7, Nos. 40, 16 October 2026
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NIAS Global Politics Team
16 October 2026
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Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella, Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, and Urja R Kudalkar
Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa crisis deepens:
Islamabad imposes emergency rule as police crack-down on pro-Khan protesters
On 14 October, The New Indian Express and other major sources reported that police opened fire at a protest in Bara, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, three days after President Asif Ali Zardari imposed emergency and governor’s rule in the province on 11 October, suspending the government led by jailed former PM Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said federal rule was needed to combat militancy, with the proclamation accusing the provincial government of failing to confront terrorism. Suspended Chief Minister Sohail Afridi, who was leading a march demanding Khan’s release, and some cabinet members were taken into preventive custody, while police raided homes in Swabi district to prevent Afridi’s rally. PTI central information secretary Sheikh Waqas Akram said the party would challenge the takeover in court, calling it a “historic crackdown.” Hassan Abdullah Niazi, an adjunct faculty member at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, called it an unconstitutional move against provincial autonomy. In Bara, a police officer said 11 protesters were injured, while PTI said more than a dozen workers were seriously hurt. Police said they fired warning shots.
Saudi Arabia’s Yemen front widens:
Houthis vow more attacks on airports, oil facilities after strike on Aramco headquarters
On 14 October, Reuters, and other major sources reported that Yemen’s Houthis vowed to press on with attacks on airports and oil facilities in the kingdom, a day after a missile hit Saudi Aramco’s headquarters complex in Dhahran. The BBC reported the strike followed a Saudi-led coalition attack on a Houthi-run fuel depot near Sanaa on 13 October. The Houthis said they fired missiles and drones at Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters, an Aramco refinery in Riyadh, and Riyadh’s airport. The energy ministry reported a “limited fire,” but sources told Reuters the blaze spread between the sixth and 10th floors of an office tower. Debris from intercepted missiles injured four people in Riyadh and damaged 15 homes. The Saudi cabinet, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, vowed the Houthis would “bear the consequences.” The capital’s airport, hit on 10 October in an attack that killed 13, is closed until 17 October. US President Donald Trump has said Washington might join Saudi strikes, while Houthi official Mohammed Al Bukhaiti warned of a “swift and painful response.” The New Arab, citing Haaretz, reported the Crown Prince rejected Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to join the campaign.
Ethiopia and Eritrea tensions:
Ethiopian Troops advance as war fears grow
On 14 October, Reuters and other major sources reported that Ethiopian government troops advanced to Zalambessa, a town on the border with Eritrea previously held by Tigrayan rebels, as diplomats scrambled to avert war between the two neighbours. Fighting reignited on 23 September when a rebel alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front launched attacks across Tigray, Amhara and Afar, briefly seizing Mekelle and its airport before withdrawing on 03 October. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing the rebels, telling the UN Security Council that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 kilometres into Tigray, while Eritrea denies any incursion and calls Addis Ababa's accusations a "declaration of war." Both countries wrote to the UN Security Council, with Ethiopia invoking its right to self-defence and Eritrea urging deterrent measures. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly said Ethiopia must gain Red Sea access, while Eritrea fears Addis Ababa intends to seize its port of Assab, 45 miles from the border. Analysts warn the confrontation has moved beyond Tigray, with Egypt's dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile dam and the Red Sea's heightened importance amid the Iran war raising the risk of regional spillover. The African Union has appointed former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo as lead negotiator, though Eritrea distrusts the body. Experts described it as the most dangerous moment for the region since the 1998 to 2000 war.
South Africa’s anti-migrant unrest deepens:
Violence in Soweto, Durban forces government to withdraw asylum directive
On 14 October, BBC and other major sources reported that anti-migrant protests turned violent in Johannesburg’s Soweto township and the port city of Durban on 08 October, after demonstrations demanding that refugee offices stop processing asylum applications. Acting National Police Commissioner Lieutenant General Puleng Dimpane said 10 vehicles were torched in Johannesburg and 14 in Durban, where three people were arrested. Foreign-owned shops were looted. Unrest continued in Durban for a second day, with police using rubber bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades, as crowds armed with sticks moved through areas where students and foreign nationals live. The protesters oppose a 07 July Constitutional Court ruling that bars denying asylum seekers access to the system solely on procedural grounds. Government spokesperson William Baloyi blamed deliberate disinformation, saying the ruling does not grant automatic refugee status or residence. On 09 October, the Department of Home Affairs withdrew its directive to resume asylum intake, saying offices were overwhelmed within days and officials faced safety threats. It promised a “fresh process.” Police said calm had returned in Soweto. At least four foreign nationals have been killed in violence this year, according to police.
Drone strikes in Sudan:
Airstrike kills at least 72 gold miners near Egyptian border
Between 09 and 12 October, Reuters and other major sources reported that at least 72 artisanal gold miners were killed in an airstrike in northern Sudan near the Egyptian border, according to the rights group Emergency Lawyers, which accused the Egyptian air force of carrying out the attack. The reported strike occurred in the Wadi area of the mountainous Jabal al-Uqaydat gold-mining region and marked the second such incident in recent months, following a similar strike in June that reportedly killed 23 workers. Egypt's military said that it was continuing a campaign against illegal gold mining in southern Egypt, following the distribution of warning leaflets, but made no direct reference to the latest airstrike or the reported deaths. Two Egyptian security officials stated that the operation aimed to end chaos along the border and prevent groups from seizing control of mining areas. Sudan's army-led government confirmed that the incident occurred in a border area between the two countries and said it was investigating, urging a thorough investigation and respect for territorial boundaries. Emergency Lawyers said a cross-border attack of this nature would violate international law, while images shared by local rights groups and on social media showed bodies among rubble, though the material could not be independently verified. Moreover, the incident comes amid escalating civilian casualties across Sudan, where drone attacks by the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have reportedly intensified. Additionally, a separate drone strike on a displacement camp in Blue Nile state on Friday killed dozens of people, with the United Nations reporting that women and children accounted for most of the casualties.
About the author
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella, Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, and Urja R Kudalkar are currently interns at NIAS.