|
Shreya Upadhyay
25 October 2026 |
This November, as the US gets ready to vote for in the midterm elections, the battle for Congress is tightening on both the sides. The results will have significant impact on how the next two years are going to be, not only domestically but also with an impact on foreign policy. Notably, Trump’s approval since taking over presidency has fallen from just over 50 per cent to 37 per cent now. If the Democrats win, their policy agenda is to repeal the tariffs, restore healthcare subsidies, push back on the Iran war, and investigate the administration. It has been this deadline that governed the last quarter for the Trump administration.
1. The Trade deal moved finally!
A first tranche of the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement was announced via a Modi-Trump phone call, cutting US tariffs on Indian goods from 50 percent to 18 percent and removing the punitive surcharge Washington had imposed over India’s Russian oil purchases. At the time of writing it was undergoing legal drafting with broad framework finalised. Finance Minister Sitharaman, speaking at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok also impressed upon early conclusion of the full BTA. This is a real outcome after a two years of on-and-off negotiations.
It is a real outcome after two years of on-and-off negotiations. And Indian exporters in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods will feel the difference. However, the terms matter. Indian side has stated that India won’t operationalise until it has secured a competitive advantage over peer economies. The US Secretary of State Rubio flew to Mumbai and Jamnagar on October 17, with energy cooperation as the stated agenda and the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act as the subtext. The pressure points therefore are still there, even as the trade door is open. For Indian professionals, EB-1 and EB-2 visa retrogression however continued through the quarter, with no green card approvals expected before October 2026.
2. Russia-Ukraine developments
This quarter saw US direct engagement with Russian leadership in months with talks taking place in Miami, Abu Dhabi and United States Special Envoy for Peace Jared Kushner flying to Moscow in early September. Currently, Russia holds roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and is mobilising 300,000 troops after its Duma elections. Formal talks between Russia and Ukraine have not resumed since February.
Notably, on October 9, Trump announced a diesel deal with Putin, a US Treasury sanctions licence allowing up to 4.8 million tonnes of Russian diesel into global markets between October and December. This was framed as a move to “lower prices for Americans” ahead of the midterms. The announcement came amidst the discussion of peace proposal among American and Ukrainian officials. Two days later, Trump called for Zelenskyy to be replaced, blaming Ukraine’s refinery strikes for high fuel costs. Talks of “energy ceasefire” is ongoing. The diesel deal is instrumental in signalling that for the US, fuel prices are a campaign variable to be taken into account.
3. The Iran ceasefire that did not happen
The Islamabad Memorandum lasted less than three weeks with both the sides calling out its suspension. No nuclear deal and no renewed ceasefire could be reached. In September, Iran put forward a new roadmap to reopen Hormuz within seven days, in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, unfreezing $12 billion in Iranian assets, and ending hostilities in Lebanon. Trump rejected it the same day and called Hormuz strait - “Trump Strait”. Iran since then has changed tactics. Fifteen attacks have been recorded on ships between October 6 and 14. Only 2.9 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz on October 11, the lowest level this month, against a pre-war average of 17.1 million barrels a day. The issues blocking the deal remain unchanged- who controls Hormuz, the naval blockade, frozen Iranian assets, and Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran will not discuss nukes until blockade is lifted and the US won’t lift the blockade without nuclear assurances.
4. Trump's meeting with President Xi
Xi’s Washington summit just after attending the BRICS summit in New Delhi was the first state visit in eleven years. The two parties agreed on a framework for handling AI incidents, more favourable tariff treatment on non-sensitive goods, and to cooperate on the 2026 APEC and G20 hosting cycle. Taiwan, rare earths and the Iran war were discussed and not resolved. All in all it was high on spectacle and low on substance. But the structure is important. This was the second Trump-Xi meeting of 2026, and a third is going to take place in November. This shows a larger bilateral channel in place, and a duopoly in making, even as multilateral order seems to be fraying.
To Conclude:
Last quarter’s defining feature has been the November 3 deadline. From the trade deal moving in seemingly right direction, Russia-Ukraine war to Iran ceasefire talks, all had a domestic return address. And through all of it, a US-China bilateral management channel is being institutionalised with AI framework and trade talks being negotiated bilaterally. For India, this is a wake up call. While BRICS hosting was a diplomatic win and a formation of third pole, the value of being a swing partner remains only when US-China remain competitive. When rivalry is managed, the room for New Delhi to play becomes smaller. This is the structural limit of strategic autonomy in a world being shaped by duopoly.
Dattesh ParulekarÂ
R Vidya
Athar Zafar
Adarsh Vijay
Ashik J Bonofer
Ramya B
Shreya Upadhyay
Lakshmi Karlekar
Anand V
Preetha Renganarayanan
Advik Sunanda Mohan
Advik Sunanda Mohan
Samraksha Mukund
NIAS Global Politics Team
NIAS Global Politics Team
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R KudalkarÂ
Lekshmi MK
Glynnis Winona B
Namrata L Ghanghatkar and Urja Kudalkar
Lekshmi MK
Angelo Neil Augustine, Disha V, Yaazhini Thiruchelvi DD and Srishti HS
Preetha Renganarayanan
NIAS Global Politics Team
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar
Preetha Renganarayanan
Akshath Kaimal
Namrata L Ghanghatkar
Urja R Kudalkar
Urja R Kudalkar
Nithin V
Sreemaya Nair
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella, Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar
Akshath Kaimal
Yesasvi Koganti
Aparna A Nair
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar
Priyanka Makhijani
Namrata L Ghanghatkar
Akshath Kaimal
Namrata L Ghanghatkar
Adwaith Sankar
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar
Urja R Kudalkar
Adwaith Sankar
Dattesh D Parulekar
Nithin V
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar
Manikranth Chakravarthula
Priyanka Makhijani
Adwaith Sankar
Namrata L Ghanghatkar
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Preetha Renganarayanan
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Yesasvi Koganti
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Glynnis Winona B
Deb Dutta
Glynnis Winona B
Nithin V
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Glynnis Winona B
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Kirsten Wilfred Coelho
Sreemaya Nair
Kirsten Wilfred Coelho
Santhosh Guru PR
Rakshitha B
Glynnis Winona B
Brighty Ann Sarah
Brighty Ann Sarah
Nithin V
Siddhi Halyur
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Glynnis Winona B
Brighty Ann Sarah
Jenin Raj S
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Nithin V
Brighty Ann Sarah
Akshath Kaimal
Lakshmi Venugopal Menon
Ashik J Bonofer
Haans J Freddy
Brighty Ann Sarah
Mahesh Bhatta
Siddhi Halyur
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Jayasree
Rebecca Ann Oommen
Manik Dhawan
Santhosh Guru PR
Lekshmi MK
Brighty Ann Sarah
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha
Mahesh Bhatta
Sreemaya Nair
Mahesh Bhatta
Yesasvi Koganti
Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
Abhimanyu Solanki
Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
Brighty Ann Sarah
Yesasvi Koganti
Lekshmi MK
Aparna A Nair
Lekshmi MK
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
Lekshmi MK
Global Politics Team
Lekshmi MK
Femy Francis
Yesasvi Koganti
Akshath Kaimal
Preetha Renganarayanan
Lekshmi MK
IPRI Team
Brighty Ann Sarah
Anu Maria Joseph
Lekshmi MK
Preetha Renganarayanan
Brighty Ann Sarah
Preetha Renganarayanan
Brighty Ann Sarah
Brighty Ann Sarah
Lekshmi MK
Brighty Ann Sarah
Lekshmi MK
Akshath Kaimal
Preetha Renganarayanan
Preetha Renganarayanan
Lekshmi MK
Sunidhi Sampige & Tanvi Harendra
Rohini Reenum
Akriti Sharma
Anu Maria Joseph
Brighty Ann Sarah
R Preetha
Akriti Sharma
Brighty Ann Sarah
Akriti Sharma
Rohini Reenum
Brighty Ann Sarah and Preetha R
D Suba Chandran
Neha Tresa George
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
Abhimanyu Solanki
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Naomi Miriam MathewÂ
Rohini Reenum
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair and M Kejia
Merin Treesa Alex
Kasvi Batra
Emma Rose Boby
Fleur Elizabeth Philip
Merin Treesa Alex
Santhiya M
Farhaz Rashid Ahmed
Gauri Gupta
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia
Kumari Gargi, Naomi Miriam Matthew, & Fleur Elizabeth PhilipÂ
Santhiya M
Lekshmi MK
R Preetha
Ananya Dinesh
Emma Rose Boby
Merin Treesa Alex
Fleur Elizabeth Philip
Aashish Ganeshan
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Femy Francis
Gauri Gupta
Padmashree Anandhan
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah
R Preetha
Santhiya M
Brighty Ann Sarah
Vaneeta
Souparno Rakshit, Emma Rose Boby and Souparnika Suresh
Kumari Krishna
C Shraddha
Kumari Krishna
Nupur Priya
C Shraddha, Vaishak Sreekumar, Kumari Krishna, Nova Karun K
Prajwal TV
Kavithasri M
Ayan Datta
Sayeka Ghosh
Karthik Manoharan
Prajwal TV
Mayank Bharti
Ronakk Tijoriwala
Deepika Seervi
Dhriti Mukherjee
Prajwal T V
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
Dhriti Mukherjee
By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
Rohini Reenum
NIAS South Asia Team
NIAS South Asia Team
Devi Chandana M
Sayeka Ghosh
Arya Prasad
Sayeka Ghosh
Diya Madhavan
Ramya B
NIAS South Asia Team
T C A Raghavan
Karthik Manoharan
Rosemary Kurian
Manasa G
D Rohan Kumar
LS Hareesh
Ramya B
NIAS South Asia Team
NIAS South Asia Team
NIAS South Asia Team
NIAS Latin America Team
NIAS South Asia Team
IPRI Team
Femy Francis
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
CEAP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
Amit Gupta
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
Prof Joyati Bhattacharya
Lakshmi Parimala H
Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Avishka Ashok
Sourina Bej
Naina Singh
Amit Gupta
Shalini Balaiah
Prakash Panneerselvam
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
STIR Team
Aswathy Koonampilly
Vineeth Daniel Vinoy
Joeana Cera MatthewsÂ
Bhuvan Ningania
Jeshil J Samuel
Lokendra Sharma
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Joeana Cera MatthewsÂ
Anju Joseph
Sarthak Jain
Sourina Bej
Vibha Venugopal
Dincy Adlakha
Udbhav Krishna P
Joeana Cera Matthews
Julia Mathew
Dhanushaa P
SDP Scholars
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
​​​​​​​Rashmi BR
GP Team
V S Ramamurthy and Dinesh K Srivastava
Lokendra Sharma
Harini Madhusudan
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Akriti Sharma
Avishka Ashok
Apoorva Sudhakar
Sukanya Bali
Apoorva Sudhakar
Avishka Ashok
Harini Madhusudan
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sukanya Bali
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
N Manoharan and Drorima Chatterjee
GP Team
D Suba Chandran
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Apoorva Sudhakar
Teshu Singh
Rashmi Ramesh
Aparaajita Pandey
Teiborlang T Kharsyntiew
Sandip Kumar Mishra
Sourina Bej
Harini Madhusudan
Gunjan Singh
Sukanya Bali
Sumedha ChatterjeeÂ
GP Team
Rashmi Ramesh
Harini Madhusudan
Harini Madhusudan
Sukanya Bali
Savithri Sellapperumage
Harini Madhusudan
Rashmi Ramesh
Mallika Devi
Srikumar Pullat
Harini Madhusudan
Lokendra Sharma
Nancy Pathak
Shreya Sinha
Kamna Tiwary
Tamanna Khosla
Vaishali Handique
Sneha Tadkal
Unnikrishnan M J
Rashmi Ramesh
A Padmashree
Oviya A J
Harini Sha P
Chavindi Weerawansha
Arjun C
Lakshmi V Menon
Samreen Wani
Sankalp Gurjar
Harini Madhusudan
Sourina Bej
Harini Madhusudan
Samreen Wani
Mahesh Bhatta
N. Manoharan
Prof PM Soundar Rajan
Harini Sha P
Rashmi Ramesh
Sourina Bej
D. Suba Chandran
Harini Madhusudan
La Toya Waha
Jenice Jean Goveas
Sanduni Atapattu
Chavindi Weerawansha
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Natasha Fernando
Ruwanthi Jayasekara
N Manoharan
Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
Kabi AdhikariÂ
Jenice Jean Goveas
Fatemah Ghafori
Sukanya Bali
Lakshmi V Menon
Rashmi Ramesh
Harini Madhusudan
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
La Toya Waha
Rohej Khatiwada
Rashmi Ramesh
Kabi AdhikariÂ
Malini SethuramanÂ
Aarathi Srinivasan
Roshni Sharma
Rashmi Ramesh
Dhruv Ashok
Prathiksha Ravi
Aswathy K
Padmini Anilkumar
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Lakshmi V Menon
Sourina Bej
Sukanya Bali
Harini Madhusudan
Parikshith Pradeep
Sukanya Bali
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Aashiyana Adhikari
Shailesh Nayak
Lakshmi V Menon
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sukanya Bali
Parikshith Pradeep
Sourina Bej
Rashmi Ramesh
Rashmi Ramesh
Harini Madhusudan
Parikshith Pradeep
GP Team
Harini Madhusudan
D. Suba Chandran
Parikshith Pradeep
Nidhi Dalal
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Sourina Bej
Lakshman Chakravarthy N & Rashmi Ramesh
Sukanya Bali
Lakshman Chakravarthy N
Sukanya Bali
Parikshith Pradeep
Harini Madhusudan
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Mahesh Bhatta
Titsala Sangtam
Lakshmi V Menon
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Harini Madhusudan
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sourina Bej
Mahath Mangal
Titsala Sangtam
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Raakhavee Ramesh
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Mahath Mangal
Mahath Mangal
Titsala Sangtam
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Mahath Mangal
Sourina Bej
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Harini Madhusudan
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Ryan Mitra
Sourina Bej
Lakshmi V Menon
Harini Madhusudan
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Sourina Bej
Harini Madhusudan
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Harini Madhusudan
Lakshmi V Menon
Sourina Bej
Harini Madhusudan
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
D. Suba Chandran
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Mahesh Bhatta
Nasima Khatoon
Harini Madhusudan
Sourina Bej
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Harini Madhusudan
Ryan Mitra
Sourina Bej
Harini Madhusudan
Divyabharathi E
Lakshmi V Menon
Nasima Khatoon
Harini Madhusudhan
Sourina Bej
Ryan Mitra
Hely Desai
Young Scholars Debate
Siddhatti Mehta
Sourina Bej
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Harini Madhusudhan
Druta Bhatt
Divyabharathi E
Apoorva Sudhakar
Divyabharathi E
Oishee Majumdar
D. Suba Chandran
Sourina Bej
Gayan Gowramma KC
Druta Bhatt
Siddhatti Mehta
Miti Shah
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Harini Madhusudan
Apoorva Sudhakar
Hely Desai
Manushi Kapadia
Lakshmi. V. Menon
Divyabharathi E
Miti Shah
Hely Desai
Druta Bhatt
Manushi Kapadia
Miti Shah
Divyabharathi E
Hely Desai
Apoorva Sudhakar
Lakshmi V Menon
Samreen Wani
Divyabharathi E
Ann Maria Shibu
Dhruv Ashok
Lakshmi V Menon
Harini Madhusudan
Jamyang Dolma
Divyabharathi E
Lakshmi V Menon
Jamyang Dolma
Shalini E
Dhruv Ashok
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ann Maria Shibu
Divyabharathi E