The World This Quarter

CWA # 2317
The World This Quarter
Latin America (Jul-Sep 2026):
The US-China big power play, High stakes Brazilian elections, and India's increased engagement

The World This Week #376, Vol 8, No. 38, 25 October 2026

Dattesh Parulekar 
25 October 2026
Photo Source:

The quarter running July to September 2026 has been its usual tumultuous self across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, punctuated, by feisty pre (Brazil) and post (Colombia) electoral tussles; statecraft machinations surrounding AI and digital driven initiatives, the Donroe doctrine of coercion and predatory disposition, manifesting itself in newer coordinates of the region, and the region’s gambit, to materially diversify, for multi-alignment and strategic autonomy.  

1. At the altar of US-China Big Power Play vide competing AI architectures
Seemingly counteracting the June 2026 decision, of the likes of Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Panama, to align themselves with the US-led ‘Pax Silica’ initiative, aimed at building an artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem and securing supply chains with trusted partners, Beijing has in July 2026, managed to pull-off competing accession by Brazil, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, to its self-helmed World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO), pitched as an ostensible governance-centred forum. 
Latin America is neither a bystander nor a unified bloc in the China-US AI race. Rather, the region’s position, is exemplified by an inveterate divide between subservience and autonomy, wherein AI sits as a newest sharp power dimension, in which regional states perceive their equities.

Pax Silica assigns Latin America a partner function within a US-designed supply chain in exchange for security, financing and standing, resembling the architecture of its regional hegemonic order. WAICO, by contrast, offers voice in governance and access to open-source models, which widens partner choice, but its capacity-building provisions remain modest relative to the capacity gap that autonomy requires. This said, Latin American strategic choices perpetuate regime sensitivity, which is not difficult to see in the ‘autonomy’ heavy of approach of a Lula-led Brasilia (could very well alter if Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro prevails in the Oct election) and an acquiescing Argentina, whose libertarian President endeavours to lever deregulation and critical resources endowments for positioning as a strategic commodities provider and prospective node, within the US AI model. As Washington and Beijing institutionalize rival AI orders, the decisive question for the region is whether alignment buys capacity or only access.

2. The high stakes Brazilian election hits fever pitch 
The Brazil election cycle intensified dramatically, between July and September 2026, as the country prepared for its sharply polarized October 4 general election. The period solidified a high-stakes showdown, between incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party-PT), pursuing, what would be a record fourth stint in office, in two non-consecutive sets of successive terms, looking to fend off a fierce challenge from right-wing scion Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party-PL), the arguable political torchbearer for his incarcerated father’s political movement. 

The political battle-lines have been drawn across three fault-line issues of restoring public security and taming organized crime; upholding economic sovereignty; and an amelioration in judicial dysfunction and state-institutional disrepair. A September 2026 straw poll threw up over a quarter of responses which held unabated virulence as a primary voting consideration. No wonder then that Sen. Bolsonaro has been promising an El Salvador styled zero tolerance policy coupled with a maximum security prison network. On the economic pledges, while President Lula is hunkering down with added promises of continued state-backed public investments and labour protections, including preserving the sanctity of the Amazon, Sen. Bolsonaro is promoting inflation reduction spending cuts and a hard-stop public debt-ceiling, towards improving macroeconomic fundamentals. Notwithstanding, a major institutional crisis involving the Banco Master investigation and the Supreme Federal Court (STF), heightened tensions in September. The stakes were exacerbated by realization that, the winning president would be positioned to nominate four of the eleven Supreme Court justices going forward, which would afford swing power to influence the ideological balance and composition of the apex court.

The trenchant three month campaign-stump, setting the stage for the October 4 first round, and a potential run-off on October 25, is also epochal for Congressional sweepstakes, with as many as two-thirds of the Federal Senate seats up for term renewal, which has witnessed conservative forces scripting a political comeback, expending significant political capital in securing legislative majority, with a view to shaping judicial purges and hobbling President Lula’s legislative agenda should be returned for a fresh term. 

3. ‘Cuba’ the next designated domino in the crosshairs of US pincer action
In July 2026, the UNGA voted 136-09 with 30 abstentions, in favour of debating the excruciating sanctions regime on the Caribbean island nation, despite US protestations to the contrary. It’s been nine months since the US president signed off on executive orders, threatening hefty levies on countries feeding crude oil supplies, even as the US Coast Guard aggressively interdicts tankers and ships, bound for the tiny island nation, leading to crippling power cuts for 12-20 hour stretches. 

On August 2–3, 2026, Cuba experienced its sixth total electrical grid collapse of the year, triggering an official U.S. Embassy Havana Security Alert, due to widespread cell and internet outages with daily energy deficits exceeding 60 per cent. Amidst reportage of heightened CIA presence, increased drone surveillance, and constitution of a new task force aimed at internal destabilization and intelligence glean under the Trump administration,  in a bid to reinforce pressure, on August 20, 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department targeted nine Cuban military research and state development entities wedded to its nickel oriented industrial edifice—including the Ministry of Construction, import companies, and the mining group GEOMINSAL—as well as leaders at the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples (ICAP), which have been cited by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as sustaining the regime’s apparatus, and therefore deserving of the currently imposed blockade, which is strangling the Cuban economy, beyond the pangs of what has persisted for 64 long years.

4. India ups-the-ante on its Latin American engagement
On the margins of the annual UN General Assembly Plenary, the Foreign Ministers of India and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) regional grouping, convened, in an expanded Troika format, co-chaired by EAM Dr. Jaishankar and his Uruguayan counterpart and incumbent CELAC Chair, Minister Mario Lubetkin. With thirty of the 33 country constituents represented (the largest participation till date), the meeting not only reviewed the growth momentum in mutual trade but also deliberated on a slew of strategic portfolios cooperation spanning critical minerals supply chain resilience, energy, food and health security, development cooperation, climate action, digital transformation and equitable AI development, agri-and-space sector collaboration, etc. 

Proposing the advancement of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Chile, and a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Peru, the India-CELAC regional forum pledged to institutionalise their engagement to scale up trade flows beyond the current 50 billion threshold accomplished. This interface, came close on the heels of the India-MERCOSUR meeting, a week earlier, where both sides announced the launch of negotiations, to formalise terms of reference for an expanded Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA). Notwithstanding, India and MERCOSUR also inked an additional protocol to ease acceptance of electronic certificates of origin, aimed at reducing documentation, facilitating paperless trade and modernising customs procedures, between India and the four MERCOSUR constituent member-states. 

To Conclude
Political challenges abound in the region, with multi-vectored ramifications, brought on by the potential complexion of the Brazilian electoral preference in October, the fallout from a fraught power transition in Colombia, and the dystopian nature of power coagulation, being attempted in Nicaragua, all of which shall reshape the strategic outlook of the region, both within and without.

About the author

Dr Dattesh Parulekar is an Assistant Professor at the School of International & Area Studies, Goa University.


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