Global Politics

CWA # 38
Global Politics
Electoral Rise of the Right: From Trump to Brexit

Druta Bhatt
26 June 2018
Photo Source:

Any trend as a phenomenon can only sustain itself when backed by common fortunes, miseries and solutions and this one’s no exception. Succumbing to the domino effect, nations in a globalized world are caught in a whirlpool of the movement.

School of Liberal Studies, PDPU, Gandhinagar & Research Intern, National Institute of Advanced Studies, IISc (Bengaluru)       

 

In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan demanded that Mikhail Gorbachev destroy the Berlin Wall. Thirty years later, Donald Trump proclaims that the world needs more walls between nations. From the populist right-wing governments coming to power to the unsettling events of Brexit and election of Trump, it is difficult not to acknowledge the rise of right-wing nationalism in the twenty-first century. Despite having a huge opposition to this trend by a large pool of liberals, the very countries once pioneering global integration is now being torchbearers of isolationism.

In a democratic set- up, what part of the population is supporting nationalistic decisions? Across continents, is there a common civilian character that chooses to colour the national theatre with nativism and global scepticism? To study the nature of such decisions, here are the two most radical highlights of increasing western nationalism and its demographic analysis. 

 

A comparison of who voted for Brexit and Trump

The June 2016 referendum to determine the fate of the UK's membership of EU was won by 51.9 per cent of leave vote, a mere marginal victory. In line with the overall rise of Euroscepticism over the recent past, the three basic arguments for Brexit solicitors were found to be increased immigrants, Britain's reduced sovereignty and its economic slowdown. The arguments were neither unanimous in substance nor in the intensity of conviction across the demos. 

The US assumed a large shift in electing the face of their nation from President Obama for the last four terms to President Trump this term. With nobody even expecting Trump to be the Republican candidate to his election as the most powerful man on earth was nothing less than a shock.  Nothing, not his complete non – observance of political correctness, his promises to construct a wall against Mexico, his plan of seizing jobs from Indians, Chinese, his open propaganda against Muslims could dissuade a clear majority of the American population to vote for him as their representative.

Following is the comparison of the exit poll analysis of the two events based on certain basic, common criteria.

Age

Brexit: those above 45 (who are a majority in the U.K.) have widely chosen for Brexit. 73 per cent of those aged between 18- 29 voted to remain in EU.

Trump’s election: 37 per cent of adults below the age of 30 voted for Trump while 53 per cent of adults above the age of 65 voted for Trump. He had a clear majority in the voters above 45.

Race

Brexit: 51 per cent of the white Britishers voted to leave EU. Only 29 per cent of Britishers with African –Caribbean origin and 32 per cent Asians voted to leave on the other hand.

Trump’s election: 58 per cent of white Americans voted for Trump. Only 8 per cent Afro-Americans, 29 per cent Latinos and 29 per cent Asians voted for Trump.

Income Difference

Brexit: 66 per cent of the leave voters were ones with a monthly income lower than 1200 Euros. Most people who perceived it hard to make to a living were strongly in favour of leaving. 70 per cent of those in social housing was likely to vote leave.

Trump’s election: 53 per cent of people with a family income less than 30,000 dollars and 51 per cent of those with a family income between 30,000 dollars to 50,000 dollars voted for the Republican candidate. Though Clinton also bagged quite a few votes in the below 50,000 dollar belt.

Educational qualification

Brexit: the ones who have graduated were most likely to vote against Brexit.

Trump’s election: Only 37 per cent of postgraduates, 45 per cent of college graduates and 51 per cent with high school completion or less voted for Trump.

 

Deciphering the exit poll

Both the instances survived on two basic prevalent sentiments, economic instability and a generalized fear and dislike for the non-natives. In spite of being two stand-alone events in different continents, both of them have striking similarities in the precipitation of national issues and the western manifestation of nationalism. In both the cases the elderly, not highly educated, whites (natives) and people on the lower end of economic strata have strongly supported nativist, right-wing nationalist movements in their respective spheres of influence in both the referred examples.

A study said that when an American white is told that in a few years the Asians, Muslims, Blacks and Chinese combined will outnumber the white population, they become more likely to vote for Trump. This is a common western sentiment in the current scenario where the whites fear that 'others' will take away jobs, ruin their culture and in turn dominate the country to their disadvantage. When members of the majority social group feel threatened, they instinctively or subconsciously start being more traditional and feel more negatively towards other groups. Evidence of racial progress and competition with the coloured lead the whites to experience lower self-esteem because it collides with their schema of 'others' where other races did not deserve the jobs, the status and rights in the first place. To protect their existing beliefs and regain their status, natives support right-wing movements.

The difference in education has brought out the sharpest divide in the voters for both the instances. Researchers at the University of Leicester say that had just 3 per cent more of the population gone to University, UK would probably still be with EU. Despite being caught in the wave of nationalism, most western universities have managed to stay liberal. Education teaches students the benefits of globalisation, free trade and borders open to immigration and global cooperation. The young also are less likely to be stigmatized by racial ideas because they have been acclimatized to live in a cosmopolitan society where the very essence of culture and lifestyle has intermingled and the ‘us versus them’ bias negligible.

In the case of Trump’s election, however, there is a strong racial component attached to age and educational qualification. The deeper demographic assessment says that the percentage population of whites in the younger age group is less than the overall percentage of whites in US population. Forty-nine per cent of graduates in 2015 were non – whites which could have impacted their voting behaviour irrespective of their educational qualification.

Surprisingly the economic divide did not play a major role in deciding votes for Trump. The affluent were as likely to be threatened by the non-natives as were the poor. In Brexit on the other hand income group did play a role in the votes as it was perceived by many that the economic slowdown of UK was due to its EU membership and restrictions. However one cannot predict the economic health of UK were it not a part of EU.

Any trend as a phenomenon can only sustain itself when backed by common fortunes, miseries and solutions and this one’s no exception. Succumbing to the domino effect, nations in a globalized world are caught in a whirlpool of the movement.  As seen from both of the above examples, unexpected decisions were the choice of a meagre majority as of yet. The young and educated, who have not surrendered to the populist sentiment, have the privilege and responsibility of halting the accelerated expansion of the right wing sentiment rather than being just another brick in the growing number of walls!


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The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta