Afghanistan 

CWA # 469
Afghanistan 
The US decision to withdraw is a call made too early. Three reasons why

Abigail Miriam Fernandez
9 May 2021
Photo Source: USA Today

Although continuing the US deployment will not alter the realities in Afghanistan, the decision was made too early

On 14 April, President Joe Biden announced that "it is time to end the forever war", saying that he would withdraw the remaining US troops in Afghanistan by 11 September as it has accomplished its main mission of denying terrorists a haven in the country. He said, "War in Afghanistan was never meant to be a multigenerational undertaking," adding, "We were attacked. We went to war with clear goals. We achieved those objectives," adding, "So, in keeping with that agreement and with our national interests, the United States will begin our final withdrawal – begin it on 1 May of this year." Biden suggested that other objectives of their mission in Afghanistan, included building a stable democracy, eradicating corruption and the drug trade, assuring an education for girls and opportunity for women, and, in the end, creating leverage to force the Taliban into peace negotiations were all noble. However, he said, "We delivered justice to bin Laden a decade ago," he said "And we've stayed in Afghanistan for a decade since. Since then, our reasons for remaining Afghanistan have become increasingly unclear."

Biden stated that the withdrawal would be made responsibly and in full coordination with the country's allies, assuring that their diplomatic and humanitarian work continues. However, Biden is the first president to have rejected the Pentagon's recommendations of a "conditions based' withdrawal, which meant that security would have to be assured on the ground before Americans pulled back. Meanwhile, in response, President Ashraf Ghani, after holding a telephone call with Biden, said that Afghanistan respects the US decision to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan.

On 15 April, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Afghan leaders in Kabul to discuss the troop withdrawal. He said, "We never intended to have a permanent military presence here. Threat from Al Qaeda in Afghanistan is significantly degraded," adding, "The United States will honour its commitments to the government and people of Afghanistan." In response, Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah said, "Thank you...you have been with us--in the past 20 years especially--you have made tremendous contributions and sacrifices alongside our own people, and we are grateful and thank you for your support of peace."

After Biden's announcement, North Atlantic Treaty Organization chief Jens Stoltenberg announced that the full withdrawal would be completed "within a few months" to match Biden's announcement. He said, "We went into Afghanistan together, we have adjusted our posture together, and we are united in leaving together." Further, he stated that "This is not an easy decision, and this is a decision that contains risks and a decision that requires that we continue to stay focused on Afghanistan," adding, "This is not an end, but the beginning of a new way of dealing with Afghanistan." Presently, there are around 7,000 non-US NATO troops currently in Afghanistan.

Three reasons why the withdrawal announcement is too early
Over the past few years, successive administrations have contemplated and worked towards withdrawing their forces from Afghanistan. The culmination was the signing of the US-Taliban agreement in 2020, in which the conditions aimed at bringing peace in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of troops by 1 May 2021 was laid down. However, an unconditional US troop withdrawal goes against this agreement where the US promised a withdrawal only after several conditions were met. Yet these have not been met. The Taliban, according to the UN and US government, has not cut ties to al Qaeda, has not engaged seriously in the intra-Afghan peace process, and has not reduced violence against Afghan forces. Thus, deferring from the agreement. Thus, the Biden administration's decision for troop withdrawal is a call made too early. Here are three reasons why.

First, the nascent stage of the Afghan negotiations. Both the ongoing intra- Afghan negotiations and the new initiative for negotiations have been stalled due to the Taliban's absence and participation. As agreed, the Taliban was to engage proactively in these negotiations; however, they have been using stalling tactics rather than cooperating. With the announcement of withdrawal, diplomatic efforts without the leverage of troop presence are unlikely to result in success because the Taliban will believe they hold all the cards in talks with the Afghan government. This is detrimental to the ongoing negotiations that are far from attaining any positive breakthroughs.

Second, the continuing surge in violence. Over the last year, violence continues to go unabated, hinting that the call for withdrawal might be early. In the six months between October 2020 and March 2021, United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded a 38 per cent increase in civilian casualties compared with the same period in 2020. It attributed the surge in violence to both the Afghan army and the Taliban, with the Taliban responsible for 43.5 per cent of all civilian casualties and the Afghan national army responsible for 17 per cent. Further, the Taliban's commitment to reducing violence is a promise made solely to the US itself, not to the Afghan government, with the troop leaving, the leave the Taliban obligated to no one. Additionally, the argument that the Taliban has cut ties to al Qaeda remains debatable. According to UN and Afghan officials and former Taliban members, there is active coordination between the two groups, despite the Taliban's commitment to sever ties with the group.

Third, the ability of the Afghan defence forces. Ghani claims that the Afghan commandos, special forces and air force "have trained among the best, they are among the best in the region, as long as this force stays, there is no risk of state collapse," however, with the support of all foreign troops coming to an end, it is likely that the Afghan forces alone with not be able to counter the fallouts of withdrawal even though the government claims otherwise. Reiterating the same, Marine General Kenneth McKenzie, head of US Central Command said, "My concern is the ability of the Afghan military to hold the ground that they're on now without the support that they've been used to for many years." Although Afghanistan's security and defence were passed on to the Afghan National Security Forces in 2015, the US military presence acted as a safety net and served as a deterrent against the Taliban. Thus, although Biden promised to maintain the financial support and consultancy services, it will not be sufficient for the security and defence of Afghanistan. Further, CIA Director William Burns warned the Senate Intelligence Committee that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan would weaken the US's ability to gather intelligence and take action against fundamentalist threats. 
In conclusions, the issue here is not about the troop withdrawal but the question of timing. With US and NATO troops moving out together, the Taliban have no incentive to compromise. Further, the probability of instability being retriggered in the country with the foreign troops' withdrawal remains high and if there we such an untoward situation, over-the-horizon counterterrorism is unlikely to be of any use. Thus, it is how the US is leaving that enhances the prospects for instability in Afghanistan.

Further, the Taliban will continue to remain aloof to the negotiations unless there's substantial international pressure, one of which came through the presence of troops in Afghanistan. Efforts without the leverage of troop presence are highly unlikely to result in success, because the Taliban will believe they hold all the cards in talks with the Afghan government, highlighting that while other actors are being flexible, the Taliban choose not to take the high road.  

This commentary is an expanded version of a TWTW note on "Afghanistan: The US and NATO decide to withdraw; Ghani accepts it, " 18 April 2021.  

About the author
Abigail Miriam Fernandez Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Her areas of interest include peace and conflict in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Caucasus. As a part of her research focus at 'Pakistan Reader' she looks at issues relating to gender, minorities and ethnic movements.

 


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Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta