NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY

CWA # 1005
NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
Africa Weekly #69-71 | The Wagner Group in Africa

NIAS Africa Team
18 July 2023
Photo Source: Paul Lorgerie, Reuters

Africa Weekly #69-71 Vol. 2, No.24- 26

18 July, 2023

IN FOCUS | The Wagner Group in Africa 
Jerry Franklin A and Anu Maria Joseph

The Wagner Group in Africa: A Profile
A Profile of the Wagner group in Africa: From supporting military, authoritarian leaders to fighting militancy and mine licencing
Jerry Franklin

The Wagner Group, a private military company (PMC) with alleged ties to the Russian government, has increasingly made its presence felt in various countries across the African continent. The group has been operating in several African countries, offering direct military support and related security assistance. 

The footprint of the Wagner Group can be seen in countries including Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic (CAR), Zimbabwe, Angola, Madagascar, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 

Wagner and its subsidiary firms hold certain privileges and rights in these countries that allow them to access and capitalise on natural resources in exchange for providing arms, technology, and military assistance. According to a study by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, the sale of armaments and bilateral military cooperation agreements between Russia and several African countries paved the way to the deployment of the Wagner group in Africa. Moscow has been using the Wager group to advance its geopolitical objectives on the African continent. Moreover, Russia seeks to present itself as a reliable ally to African countries where the influence of the West is declining gradually.

The Wagner Footprint in Africa
The Wagner group’s presence in Africa can be profiled through individual countries.

Libya: The Khalifa Haftar connection
In Libya, the Wagner group was accused of supporting General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) against the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Wagner's combat activities in Libya began in 2018 to support the Libyan National Army's (LNA) attempt to conquer Tripoli and destabilise the GNA. It was estimated that 2,000 Wagner members were stationed in Libya between July and September 2019. 

The group was indicted with unlawful killings and the setting of landmines in residential areas. In 2020, a ceasefire ended the conflict between the warring factions. Since 2020, the focus of Wagner's operations has been on the oil infrastructure in eastern Cyrenaica bordering Egypt, and they have continued to provide Hifter troops with military training. Currently, the Wagner units are located in the eastern province, particularly at al-Khadim air base near al-Marj city, and in the central region's cities of Sirte and al-Jufrah. 

The Wagner Group tried to utilise Libya as a strategic base to conduct its operations in the Sahel area, notably in Chad and Niger. Russia intends to establish a base along the southern flank of NATO and Libya provides strategic options for naval and aviation bases and provide support for operations further into Africa. Russia seeks to make more investments and create new business prospects in Libya's energy industry. 

Sudan: From President Omar al Bashir to Gen Hamdan Dagalo
 In Sudan, the Wagner group began its operation during the reign of former President Omar al-Bashir. During a visit to Moscow in 2017, Sudan's then-President Omar al-Bashir signed several agreements with the Russian government. These included a deal for Russia to establish a naval facility at Port Sudan on the Red Sea and gold extraction concession deals between Russian enterprise and the Sudanese Ministry of Minerals. 

In Sudan, Russia has prioritized establishing a naval base for strategic purposes. Additionally, Russia has established a network of gold mining and smuggling activities in Sudan through Wagner. The Wagner group established Meroe Gold, a Prigozhin-controlled firm, to oversee its operations in the country. 

The Wagner group was reported to have deployed 500 Wagner members in Sudan to train the Sudanese military forces and guard the country's gold mines. During the transitional period following the removal of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the group has allegedly provided military support to the Sudanese government. General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, often known as Hemedti, and his Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had been closely associated with Wagner in weapon smuggling through the Darfur region bordering Chad. There have been accusations of Wagner providing missiles and weapons to RSF in its current conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). 

Mozambique: Combating Al Shabaab
Mozambique, a southeastern African country rich in natural resources, has been grappling with a resurgence of violence since 2017. 

Armed extremist groups, known locally as Al-Shabaab, launched numerous attacks in the Cabo Delgado province, causing significant humanitarian and security challenges. In 2019, Wagner deployed 160 Wagner members to help President Filipe Nyusi's government in its combat against Al-Shabaab but the group failed to contain the insurgency. The Wagner group withdrew its troops from the country in November 2019. 

According to the New York Times, the government maintains a small cyberwarfare group that the Wagner group has left behind. Mozambique possesses natural gas reserves that have attracted international investors. By establishing a foothold in Mozambique, Russia seeks to secure lucrative contracts in the energy sector. 

Central African Republic: From training Army to mine licensing
The Wagner Group started operations in the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2018. The group has supported President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's government in its fight against armed rebel groups. The group trained the CAR army as well as local security services. In return, the Wagner Group received the licence to mine for diamonds and gold. As of February 2023, it is estimated that 1,890 military trainers are in DRC. 

The DW, a German news organization, reported the government in Bangui granted unrestricted logging rights across 1,87,000 hectares to the Wagner group, and it generated revenue importing timber. Additionally, the group guarded the CAR's gold and diamond mines and seized a significant amount of the income generated from these mines. Wagner's firms were provided access to the Ndassima gold mine under a contract. In the past five years, the Wagner Group has established ties with political leaders and a strong grip over the country’s economy. 

Russian military engagement in CAR has been seen as a way to increase its diplomatic influence in the Central African region. Recently, Russia and the Central African Republic (CAR) have been negotiating to establish a military base in the country. The CAR's Minister of Defence, Rameaux-Claude Bireau, stated that due to security issues that have plagued the nation, authorities are prepared to accommodate a Russian military base. 

Mali: From training local forces to access to mines
In December 2021, the Wagner group deployed its forces in Mali to train the local forces and to assist the interim leader Colonel Assimi Goita in the conflict against extremists in the Sahel region. The deployment was followed by the end of France's Operation Barkhane in Mali. The group deployed 1,000 Wagner members to provide training and security. It is believed that the group has access to the country's uranium, diamond, and gold mines. 

The group has been charged with committing war crimes in Mali and killing hundreds of innocent civilians in its continuous attacks. The objective of Russia in Mali is to secure economic and military ties. On 7 February 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, stated that large supplies of aviation equipment were provided to Mali which improved the capacity of local troops to combat extremists.

Conclusion
The Wagner Group’s clandestine operations in Africa have raised significant concerns in the international community. The motive of the Wagner group in Africa can be observed in two ways, first, its economic interests, seeking access to valuable resources and business opportunities and second, its geopolitical aspirations, as the Group seeks to expand Russia's influence in the region, challenging the presence of the West. The group’s role in providing military support to various governments and non-state actors has the potential to exacerbate existing conflicts and destabilize fragile regions. Moreover, their opaque nature and lack of accountability raise questions about the legality and ethical implications of their actions on the continent. 

The Wagner Group in Africa: Fallouts of the failed revolt in Russia
Anu Maria Joseph

On 23 June, the Wagner group, headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin who had closer ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, revolted against Moscow. Although the deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ended teh revolt, the equation between Putin and Prigozhin is being questioned, with uncertainty over the group’s activities in Africa. It has also raised questions about the  Russia-Africa relations, where Wagner has been a significant player.

On 28 June, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova commented: “Whether they continue on in African countries, whether they continue to work under contracts and stay there depends on the sovereign authorities of the African countries.” Zakharova added that the leaders of the African countries have hired professionals, experts, and instructors, entered into agreements with them, and invited them to their countries. For African countries, what should matter is the effectiveness of personnel engaged to carry out extremely difficult duties, rather than politicised evaluations.

On 29 June, Russian defence ministry spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated: “We have state co-operation with the Central African Republic, we will continue it, it is supported by the necessary agreements, and, of course, our military advisers will continue their activities in the necessary and demanded quantity. The company [Wagner] had an independent business there, and the state [of Russia] had nothing to do with this business.”

Fidèle Gouandjika, a special adviser to Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, told Agence France-Presse that CAR had signed "a defence deal with Russia and not Wagner. Moscow has subcontracted to Wagner, and if Russia doesn't agree, it will send us a new contingent. If Moscow decides to withdraw them and send us the Beethovens or the Mozarts rather than Wagner's, we will have them." 

The Wagner Group operates in Mali, Libya, Sudan and the Central African Republic through the direct engagement of the Russian Ministry of Defence. For Russia, the Wagner was considered as a pipeline for Russia’s strategy in Africa. Wagner's involvement in Libya, Mali and CAR played a significant role in Moscow securing 15 abstentions from African countries in the UN’s resolution condemning its aggression in Ukraine.

If so, what will be the unfolding uncertainties in Africa following the Wagner mutiny? What will be the trajectory of the Russia-Africa relations? Can African countries rely on Wagner any more? What are African countries' options beyond Wagner? 

Wagner's revolt:  Four issues for Russia and Africa
First, Wagner in Africa was a win-win relationship for Russia and the Wagner Group. For Russia, Wagner was the best source to expand its influence in Africa and for Wagner, Russia’s prestige was best to profit from Africa’s natural resources as well as Russian weapons.
However, following the revolt, Russia is shifting its stance. Initially, Russia commented that the group would continue its operations in Africa. However, later it said that the future of Wagner contracts depend on the African countries that the host sought for the services of Wagner. Russia’s shifting stance questions Africa’s image as Russia as alternative to the West and as a trustable partner. The revolt has imperilled not only the Wagner group’s activities, but also Russia-Africa bilateral relations. 

Second, for African countries, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso, following the rise of anti-West sentiments that collided with the French withdrawal and end of MINUSMA, Russia’s Wagner was the immediate alternative. In February, during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Mali, Moscow had promised continued military support to West African countries in the battle against Islamist militants. Mali, Burkina Faso, CAR, Sudan and Libya, all the countries where Wagner had presence, are grappling with a delicate security atmosphere threatened by jihadist insurgency, rebel groups and ethnic conflicts.  Prompted by its interventions in Mali as well as its success in influencing public opinion, Wagner successfully made overtures in other west African countries including Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast. With Wagner's failed mutiny, there is a lack of clarity on the prospects of the group's presence, prompting a security dilemma in African countries. 

Third, the Wagner heavily relied on the Russian defence ministry for weapons. They supplied arms and weapons and trained regional forces in fighting jihadist threats, unconstrained by human rights responsibilities in Africa. In turn, Russia demanded concessions to access natural resources, commercial contracts, and strategic airbases or ports. For struggling economies and insecurities in Africa, Wagner weapon supply, business subsidiaries and Wagner services with mining rights and market access were an advantage. The Wagner-Russia uncertainty put forward an unclear prospect of weapon supply and business entities and labour sectors in Africa.

Fourth, for the authoritarian regimes in Africa, especially for Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan and Libya, Wagner was a source to enhance their power, and to protect African authoritarian leaders and their properties without being externally intervened unlike the West. For African countries that hired Wagner and has direct security cooperation with Moscow, the mutiny has put leaders in hardship in opting Russia or Wagner 

Beyond Wagner: Are there other options for Africa?
Wagner is not the only PMC active in Africa. According to a study by the Group of Research and Information on Peace and Security (GRIP), an independent research institute based in Brussels, “private military companies have increased their power and influence in many African countries over the past four years.” The US companies of CACI and Academi are among the most prominent military companies present in the continent, apart from Wagner. London based Sandline International is active in Papua New Guinea. South Africa based Executive Outcomes is active in Angola and Sierra Leone. In addition, French company Secopex, British based Aegis Defence Services and G4S, and Germany’s Xeless and Asgaard are active in the continent. Wagner mercenaries appear to face a large amount of criticism on human rights atrocities. However, other private military companies, which are ultimately business entities, including those from the US and Europe, active in Africa, are unlikely to take human rights into account. While Wagner's activities in Africa were more transparent, other PMCs are more opaque. 

More than a shortage of options, the deteriorating Russia-Wagner relationship would mean that there will be fierce competition among other actors and PMCs to increase their footprints in Africa. Meanwhile, China is also trying to expand its security interventions in Africa. On 5 July, a Chinese naval fleet reached Lagos aimed at improving maritime security. Chinese ambassador to Nigeria Cai Jianchun stated: “Peace is not free, peace should be defended. So I think that we need military security collaboration. So Africa-China, Nigeria-China can do things to not only safeguard the peace, but to protect the vessels in the Gulf of Aden and also here in the Gulf of Guinea.” 

More than an alternative dilemma, the Wagner uncertainty in Africa will become an opportunity for other players to fill the void. However, African countries’ over dependency on PMCs is a matter of concern in terms of territorial sovereignty, human rights and their lucrative objectives.

AFRICA IN BRIEF
27 June-18 July
Jerry Franklin and Ryan Marcus

TUNISIA
Sub-Saharan migrants attacked in Sfax
On 5 July, BBC reported that migrants from sub-Saharan Africa had been assaulted in Sfax, Tunisia. The violence was caused due to the killing of a Tunisian man. An NGO stated that some migrants were thrown off balconies. Additionally, it stated that women and children were targeted. Witnesses stated that assaults on migrants have forced them to seek refuge in the European Union.("Migrants attacked in Tunisia and 'thrown off balconies'," BBC, 5 July 2023)

EGYPT
President Fattah urges rivals in Sudan to end fighting
On 13 July, BBC reported that Egyptian President Abdul Fattah urged the warring parties in Sudan to cease fighting and consider peaceful negotiations during a peace summit held in Cairo. The summit had been attended by Sudan's neighbour countries, including South Sudan, Chad and Central African Republic. Additionally, he called for the parties to facilitate the passage of humanitarian aid. The rival military factions in Sudan had sent delegations to the summit. ("Egypt's president pleads with Sudan rivals for peace," BBC, 13 July 2023)

LIBYA
Rivals agree to share oil revenue
On 8 July, BBC reported that political rivals in Libya have decided to set up a committee to ensure the sharing of oil revenues. Eastern military strongman Khalifa Hafter threatened to force shut-down oil production. Khalifa called on the UN-backed Tripoli-based government to address the issue. The administration between the east and west have hampered the oil production in the area. ("Rival Libyan sides agree to share oil revenue," BBC, 8 July 2023)

SUDAN
Fighter jet shot down
On 4 July, Africa News reported that an army fighter jet was shot down in Khartoum during artillery clashes. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed that it had shot down the aircraft and arrested the pilot. The RSF have additionally accused the army of massacres in Khartoum. ("Sudan: an army plane shot down during clashes in Khartoum," Africanews, 4 July 2023)

Civilians called to enlist to army
On 4 July, Africanews reported that Sudanese army chief Abdel al-Burhan stated that the army is ready to receive and equip volunteers. He directed the civilian to enlist to the nearest command unit. Al-Burhan stated that all young and capable men should enlist, leading to speculations on the call being a forced conscription. Civilians speculate that the recruitment could worsen the violence. ("Sudan conflict: army chief calls for civilians to enlist," Africanews, 4 July 2023)

Clashes continue amidst Eid
On 29 June, BBC reported that clashes continued despite the announcement of ceasefire by military groups owing to Eid al-Adha. Residents of Khartoum have reported heavy artillery during the occasion. Residents have additionally reported raidings of stalls and houses. The UN mission to Sudan urged both parties to maintain truces. ("Eid in Sudan: 'I couldn't sleep because of the sounds of the gunfire'," BBC, 29 June 2023)

Khartoum rejects African peace bid
On 11 July, Al Jazeera reported that Sudan's foreign ministry rejected the regional summit peacekeeping forces to protect civilians. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) declared a mediation offer for the deployment of peacekeeping forces. The Sudanese authorities had blamed Kenya for supporting to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Additionally, the Sudanese authorities have declared that they consider the IGAD peace keeping forces as rivals. ("Sudan rejects African peace bid and ‘enemy’ peacekeeping force," Al Jazeera, 11 July 2023)

WFP boosts support for refugees
On 11 July, BBC reported that the World Food Programme (WFP) stated that it is rapidly improving its support on the Chad-Sudan border to cope with the refugees. It estimated that more than 250,000 people have fled from Sudan to Chad. Additionally the WFP stated that several refugees were severely wounded. These refugees have been deliberately targeted. ("WFP rapidly boosting support for Sudan refugees, agency says," BBC, 11 July 2023)

ICC prosecutor states conflict in Sudan can be resolved with Justice
On 14 July, BBC reported that International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan stated that there would be no hope for peace in Sudan without justice. Additionally, he stated that there is no willingness from either party to end the conflict. Additionally, Karim Khan stated that his office is launching a public appeal for those who have evidence against war crimes in Sudan. ("No peace without justice in Sudan - ICC prosecutor," BBC, 14 July 2023)

SOUTH SUDAN
South Sudan: UN announces support for refugees
On 7 July, BBC reported that UN Humanitarian Coordinator Peter Auweraert has released USD eight million humanitarian fund for over 150,000 refugees who have fled from the conflict in Sudan. The UN humanitarian  affairs office stated that the number of arrivals are projected to increase. Additionally it stated that more than six million people have been displaced since the clash between Sudanese army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). ("UN to support thousands who fled into South Sudan," BBC, 7 July 2023)

South Sudan: Kiir to contest in presidential election
On 5 July, Al Jazeera reported that President Kiir announced that the delayed election is scheduled for 2024 with him as a contestor. President Kiir is expected to contest against his rival first Vice President Reik Machar. President Kiir expressed his gratitude for endorsements and support for the party. The opposition has accused the government of delaying the elections. President Kiir stated that he is committed to free and fair elections. ("South Sudan’s Kiir to run in first-ever presidential election," Al Jazeera, 5 June 2023)

ETHIOPIA
Addis Ababa applies to BRICS bloc
On 30 June, Al Jazeera reported that Ethiopia has formally requested to join the BRICS bloc of emerging markets. Foreign ministry spokesperson Meles Alem stated that they expect a positive response from BRICS. Additionally he stated that Ethiopia would continue to work with international organisations to protect its interests ("Ethiopia applies to join the BRICS bloc of emerging economies," Al Jazeera, 30 June 2023)

UGANDA
HRW states oil pipeline devastated livelihoods
On 10 July, Al Jazeera reported that Human Rights Watch stated the oil pipeline to Ugandan export of crude oil has devastated lives. HRW additionally stated that TotalEnergies has a 62 per cent stake and will add emissions that exacerbate climate change. TotalEnergies has rejected the HRW's accusations, stating that it respects the rights of its people. The pipeline is scheduled for completion in 2025. ("Uganda oil pipeline has ‘devastated’ livelihoods, says HRW," Al Jazeera, 10 July 2023)

KENYA
President Ruto bans permit tax-hike protests
On14 July, Al Jazeera reported that Kenya President William Ruto stated that the government will not permit the planned opposition protests scheduled for the next week. Opposition leader Raila Odinga called for protests despite the arrest of 300 people during the rallies. Kenya Private Sector Alliance stated that the protests cost more than USD 21 million.  United Nations Human Rights Office spokesperson Jeremy Laurence expressed concerns over the growing violence.("Kenya’s Ruto says tax-hike protests will not be permitted," Al Jazeera, 14 July 2023)

RWANDA 
British court rules migrant deportation illegal
On 29 June 2023, Africanews reported that the British court of appeal declared the plan to deport migrants from Rwanda unlawful citing that Rwanda cannot be considered a safe third world country. "Unless and until the deficiencies in its asylum process are corrected, sending asylum seekers to Rwanda will be unlawful," the court stressed in a summary of the judgement. The British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has announced that the government  will appeal in the supreme court, ("British court of appeal rules deporting migrants to Rwanda 'illegal'," Africanews, 29 June 2023)

Rwanda: Women Deliver conference urges for gender rights protection
On 17 July, BBC reported that several countries’ authorities and activists who attended the Women Deliver conference in Rwanda, stressed on the need to protect gender equality. The Women Deliver conference was held for the first time in Africa. Rwandan President Paul Kagame stated that political pushback against women's equality would indicate that they are most vulnerable during the global crisis. They urged activists and government authorities to double down and work in unity. ("Call for gender rights protection at Rwanda conference," BBC, 17 July 2023)

SOUTH AFRICA
Opposition to form pact against ANC
On 3 July, BBC reported that South Africa's major opposition, Democratic Alliance (DA), a coalition of six parties, has considered forming a pact to displace African National Congress (ANC) from government in the 2024 elections. The opposition parties have issued a joint statement declaring that the incumbent ANC would lose its majority next year. The parties intend to present a united front that is stable, viable and effective and are scheduled to meet in August to hold discussions. ("South Africa opposition plan anti-ANC pact," BBC, 3 July 2023)

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
Russia to continue despite Wagner business
On 28 June, Al Jazeera reported Russian advisors stated that they will continue working in the Central African Republic and consider the Wagner group operations as separate business. The Kremlin issued a statement regarding the close ties with the Central African Republic (CAR), despite their engagement with the Wagner Group to fight rebel uprisings. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the mutiny in Russia would impact its relation with CAR. Presidential advisor Fidèle Gouandjika stated that CAR had a defence deal with Russia and not Wagner. ("Russia to continue work in CAR, Wagner business separate: Kremlin," Al Jazeera, 28 June 2023)

MALI
Ex-rebels reassure Russian envoy
On 4 July, BBC reported that Mali's Tuareg armed group expressed reassurance over peaceful conditions in Mali during discussions with the Russian ambassador. The armed group had warned that the removal of MINUSMA would impact northern Mali's peace process. Following the Wagner Group deployment of mercenaries in 2022, observers have highlighted doubts on the Malian army's ability to cope with the violence following the UN's withdrawal. ("Mali ex-rebels 'reassured' after talks with Russian envoy," BBC, 4 July 2023)

Junta reshuffles government 
On 2 July, Africanews reported that Mali's junta conducted a partial reshuffle of the government, following the referendum for a new constitution. The government was reshuffled with 16 appointments, 13 ministers and three swaps. A representative of the Coordination des mouvements de l'Azawad has left the government. Colonel Assa Badialo has joined the Ministry of Health and Social Development. ("Mali's junta partially reshuffles government after draft constitution vote," Africanews, 2 July 2023)

Islamists kill more than 13 
On 29 June, BBC reported that more than 13 civilians have been killed by jihadists in Gao Province amidst Eid celebrations on 28 June. Several casualties were reported but officials have not clarified if the timing was intentional. The UN Security Council was expected to approve Mali's request for withdrawal of UN peacekeepers. Analysts express fear of the situation leaving the Russian mercenary group Wagner to combat Islamists in Mali. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has stated that Germany intends to withdraw its troops from Mali while maintaining order. ("Islamists kill 13 during Eid celebrations in Mali," BBC, 29 June 2023)

NIGERIA
Chinese navy fleet visit Lagos
On 4 July, Africa news reported that three Chinese navy vessels made a five-day stopover at Lagos, Nigeria. The Nigerian Navy spokesman Admiral Ayo-Vaughan stated that the visit to the Gulf of Guinea aimed at improving diplomacy between the two countries. The Chinese ambassador to Nigeria, Cui Jiachun stated that the visit is to improve maritime security and strengthen China-Nigeria and China-Africa relations. ("Gulf of Guinea: Chinese navy on "friendly visit" to Nigeria," Africanews, 4 July 2023)

North-East region may face famine, warns UN
On 28 June, BBC reported that the United Nations has warned of the increase in risk of famine in north-eastern Nigeria. More than 40,000 civilians have been killed and two million displaced due to fighting between the army and jihadist groups. The UN humanitarian coordinator Matthias Schmale has urged the international community to respond swiftly to the situation. Additionally he pointed out that 500,000 people are facing food insecurity in Kenya. ("Nigeria's north-east 'one step away from famine' - UN," BBC, 28 June 2023)

More than 800 killed in June according to security report
On 11 July, BBC reported that Beacon Consulting released a security report citing that more than 800 people have been killed in attacks in June 2023 across Nigeria. The report stated that more than 460 incidents and 239 abductions were recorded. Additionally the report stated that the attack had occurred in 234 local government areas in 36 states across Nigeria. President Tinubu had assured that security will be the top priority of the country. ("More than 800 killed in Nigeria attacks in June - report," BBC, 11 July 2023)

Nigerian President Tinubu appointed as West Africa bloc chief
On 10 July, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu was appointed as ECOWAS's new chairman. President Tinubu has called for swift action against insecurity and coups in Guinea-Bissau. President Tinubu has pledged to prioritise political stability, peace and security and regional economy. President Tinubu is expected to have a one-year tenure. ("Nigeria’s President Tinubu chosen as new West Africa bloc chief," Al Jazeera, 10 July 2023)

Chinese navy offers protections to Nigeria
On 5 July, BBC reported that the Chinese naval visit at Lagos was aimed to improve security in waters of West Africa and East Africa. Officials stated that the Chinese Navy aimed at offering security from piracy and oil theft. The Nigerian ambassador stated that the Nigerian navy can benefit from the Chinese partners with exchange of technology and experience. Nigeria is a major oil supplier to China and a Chinese built deep sea port costing USD one Billion in Lagos.("China navy wants to protect dangerous seas off Nigeria," BBC, 5 July 2023)

BURKINA FASO
More 34 killed in attack
On 28 June, BBC reported that more than 31 soldiers and three Homeland Defence Volunteers have been killed by unidentified assailants. The army stated that more than 40 assailants were killed. The attack took place on 26 June in Northern Province of Bam, Central-Northern region. ("Dozens of soldiers killed in Burkina Faso attack," BBC, 28 June 2023)

CAMEROON
Amnesty states that atrocities are committed 
On 4 July, Africa News reported that Amnesty International has accused the security forces, separatists and militia for committing atrocities in the North-West region. The violations include executions, torture and sexual assault. Civilians retaliating against the clashes are often violated in the region. Amnesty International stated that the clashes have claimed more than 6,000 lives and displaced more than a million people. ("Rampant atrocities committed in Cameroon - Amnesty," Africanews, 4 July 2023)

ANGOLA
African leaders discuss DRC tensions 
On 28 June, Africanews reported that African leaders under the mediation of African Union President Azali Assoumani met in Luanda, Angola, to discuss the situation in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in an effort to stabilise the country. Representatives from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the East African Community (EAC), the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICRGL) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS ) were part of the summit.  The strategic objectives of the meeting is mainly to adapt a joint framework for the implementation of peace initiatives in DR Congo. ("African leaders meet in Angola to discuss East DRC tensions," Africanews, 28 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Iranian President to visit African countries
On 11 July, Al Jazeera reported that Iranian president Raisi is scheduled to visit Africa. President Raisi is expected to visit Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani stated that Iran wishes to expand its political and economical relations with Africa. Additionally, he stated that Iran considers Africa to be a continent of opportunities. ("‘Continent of opportunities’: Iran’s Raisi to go on Africa tour," Al Jazeera, 11 July 2023)

About the Authors
Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. Jerry Franklin is a Postgraduate Scholar from Madras Christian College, Chennai. Ryan Marcus is an Undergraduate Scholar at Kristu Jayanti College, Bangalore.
 


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NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
Conflict Weekly
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
TWTW Takeaways
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
TWTW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
Special Commentary
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World(Jan-Mar 2026)
Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regimes Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan