Conflcit Weekly

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CWA # 1337, 24 May 2024
Conflcit Weekly
International Condemnation of Israel, Battle for Kharkiv in Russia, and the Protests in New Caledonia

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #229, 24 May 2024, Vol.5, No.21

An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Shamini Velayutham, Padmashree Anandan and Neha Tresa George

Growing international pressure on Israel: ICC’s call for arrest warrants and the recognition of Palestine as a state by Spain, Norway and Ireland
Shamini Velayutham

In the news
On 20 May, the International Criminal Court's (ICC) chief prosecutor, Karim Khan asked the court’s judges to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and top three Hamas officials. According to Khan, Netanyahu and Gallant are accused of ‘causing extermination, causing starvation as a method of war including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies, deliberately targeting civilians in conflict.’ Khan stated: “We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population according to State policy. These crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day.”

In response to claims that he and the leaders of Hamas committed war crimes during the Gaza battle, Netanyahu has strongly denounced the prosecutor of the ICC.  He stated: “I reject with disgust the comparison of the prosecutor in the Hague between democratic Israel and the mass murderers of Hamas.” Hamas stated: “Hamas demands the cancellation of all arrest warrants issued against leaders of the Palestinian resistance, for violating UN conventions and resolutions.”

On the same day, US President Joe Biden criticised the arrest warrants: “Whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.” 

On 22 May, as a result of Israel’s attack on Palestinians, Spain, Norway and Ireland asserted that they would recognize a Palestinian state on 28 May. 

On 17 May, Israel refuted South Africa’s case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as an ‘obscene exploitation’ of the genocide convention.  Israel claimed that its aim was not to protect Palestinian civilians but to defend Hamas militants. Israel’s justice ministry official, Gilad Noam stated: “There is a tragic conflict going on, but no genocide.” South Africa ended its arguments on 16 May after claiming emergency measures in response to Israel’s attack on Rafah. 

Issues at large
First, the ICC charge. With the adoption of the Rome Statute, an international treaty approved at a diplomatic meeting on 17 July 1998, the ICC commenced operations on 1 July 2002. 124 states are parties to the law as of February 2024. The four main international crimes recognized by the Rome Statute are crimes against humanity, war crimes, crimes of aggression, and genocide. 

Second, the global divide. Earlier, on 25 March, in addition to many other restrictions on aid and funding to Palestinians, the US government passed a bill threatening to halt funding the Palestinian Authority (PA) should it apply for UN statehood recognition and file a case against Israel at the ICC. Currently, the move against Netanyahu and Gallant was opposed by Israel's most ardent allies, the US and the UK, but other countries, particularly those in Europe, such as France and Belgium, came out in support. Alongside the European countries, the South African parliament welcomed the move by the prosecutor.

In perspective
The potential of ICC and the new developments in Europe. The ICC previously had successful records of detaining several African leaders, however when it comes to Russia or Israel ICC’s jurisdiction is limited. The ineffectiveness of the court is evident in its previous investigations against Israel, which further led to jeopardising the cases against it. The global support for Palestinians and to halt the conflict will cause the ICC to take a stance against Israeli leaders and Hamas officials.

Probing ahead, Palestine is already recognized as an independent state by numerous countries, but the movement for recognition especially among European countries will have significant ramifications. The nearly simultaneous actions taken by Norway and two other EU members could accelerate the process of additional EU members recognizing a Palestinian state and lead to more UN resolutions that further isolate Israel.

Battle for Kharkiv: Russian advance in northern border showcases Ukraine’s struggle
Padmashree Anandhan

In the news
On 19 May, Ukrainian forces reported on Russian shelling on civilians in Kharkiv. According to the report, civilians were injured in Vovchansk. The town is located five kilometres from Russian border and 70 kilometres from north-east of Kharkiv. Whereas the TASS cited the failure of Ukraine armed forces to defend Russian offensive in Kharkiv was due to less resources. According to the report, Russia witnessed a huge advantage in terms of artillery shells leading to depletion of Ukrainian defences. It had exposed the exhaustion in the Ukrainian troops and “sloppily constructed” defence fortifications. 

On 18 May, Ukrainian army claimed the situation to be “under control” along with defending the assault in parts of Kharkiv. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claimed on the possibility of Russian assault starting a wider offensive. He warned on the renewed offensive of Russia as “first wave” to a larger Russian campaign to capture Kharkiv oblast. On the same day, report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicated the Russian forces to have occupied 278 square kilometres between 09 and 15 May. 

On 10 May, White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby stated on the US expectations on Russia to make advances in the coming weeks but stressed that it sees no breakthrough. He added that the gap will be filled by US assistance enabling Ukraine to defend the over the months in 2024. 

Issues at large
First, ethnic and strategic importance of Kharkiv. In the Kharkiv oblast, Kharkiv city is Ukraine’s second-largest city. It was known for Russian speaking population and under the soviet period (1919-1934), the city became the centre for transport, industry and science with many industrial clusters, research centres and universities. Located 40 kilometres south of Russian border functions as an intersection to key highways. One of which links Russia’s Rostov-on Don to Crimea. The region is also home to several military facilities and defence brigades of Ukraine used for monitoring Russian military activities. The speed with which Russian troops advanced from one settlement to another in the north of Kharkiv has been possible due to its strategic advantage to target from Russia.

Second, Russia’s breach of Kharkiv border. Russia began to launch massive drone attacks on Kharkiv in response to the increased border attacks in Belgorod in December 2023. While Russian defence ministry continued to use long-range precision weapons to strike at the military complex of Ukraine in January. Zelenskyy demanded for more air defence such as “Patriot, IRIS-T, and NASAMS” as US Congress prolonged its decision in granting military aid to Ukraine. These attacks continued through February, March and April with exchanges between Ukraine and Russia over Kharkiv and Belgorod. Russia began to make quick and short advances in May through usage of ballistic missiles (S-300 and S-400) and guided bombs. Russian forces attempted to breach through the Kharkiv border using armoured vehicles and heavy shelling through new wave of counteroffensive and succeeded in progressing by 10 May. By end of May, Russia advanced 10 kilometres and encircling partially in the north of Kharkiv oblast, capturing Vovchansk town (located 74km (45 miles) from Kharkiv), Starytsia and Lyptsi villages in the north and north-east.

Third, challenges to Ukrainian forces. The US aid package containing military equipment, funding to purchase weapons and munition from US stockpile and enhancement of Ukraine’s defence industrial base. Additionally, the Ukrainian forces were prohibited from using US aided weapons to strike Russia till approval. This delay by the US Congress until April left Ukrainian forces in a weaker defence position. Apart from this, Ukraine government’s limitation for quicker mobilisation also added to the military personnel shortage resulting in some areas in frontline critical. Compared to the 2022, Ukraine counteroffensive, Russian forces were also observed to be technologically advanced while Ukraine struggled to prevent losing of villages in the north and north-east of Kharkiv. 

In perspective
First, challenge in capturing Kharkiv city. Observing the trends from the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, which prolonged for months costed Ukraine and Russia an exhaustive count of military personnel and weapons. Given Kharkiv’s expanse of 350 kilometres, Russia would need more than a year, massive troops and enormous aerial systems to continue its air attacks. The speedy advance of Russian forces can be to capture the Kharkiv city which is only 40 kilometres from the border. One of the objectives to break into Kharkiv could be to destroy the military depots, communication hub and brigades responsible for launching attacks into Russia’s Belgorod region. This will be determined in the coming months depending on Ukrainian defence capabilities and delivery of US air defence systems.   

Second, geographic advantage of Kharkiv. The southern Ukraine has been the focus in the past six months and it has been easier for Russia to maintain its position in the southern and eastern Ukraine due to the proximity. Unlike Bakhmut and Avdiivka located in the centre of Ukraine, Kharkiv region forms part of Russia’s soviet and ethnic history flourishing with a larger Russian speaking population and serving as industrial hub for Ukraine. Geographical and cultural proximity along with Ukraine’s military hubs makes it an attractive target for Russia to destroy and extradite people. 

Unrest in New Caledonia 
Neha Tresa George 

In the news 
On 23 May, Macron met with the local officials and he called the unrest an “absolutely unprecedented insurrection movement.” He also said: "I have pledged that this reform will not be forced through in the current context.” He was also against extending the current state of emergency and said that it could only be lifted if all the barricades and roadblocks would be removed. 

On 19 May, more than 600 police officers were deployed to clear the barricades on the road to the airport, including some 100 gendarmes, according to French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin in an attempt to restore order. On 15 May, the government also imposed a state of emergency thus blocking the freedom to communicate. 

On 13 May, the French overseas territory New Caledonia saw an explosion of riots and protests against a vote on the constitutional amendment by the French government that allowed people to vote who had their main residence in New Caledonia for at least 10 years. This resulted in a growing concern among Kanaks, the indigenous community, on protecting their culture and identity. 

Issues at Large 
First, the amendment bill over voting rights. In January, the government tabled a constitutional bill to unfreeze the electorate of New Caledonia. This would include the incorporation of citizens who were either born in the territory or who have resided there for at least ten years into the special electoral rolls from 01 July 2024. Following the approval of the Sénat on 02 April, and by the Assemblée Nationale on 13 May, it still has to be approved by the joint session of both houses of Parliament to be approved. This move has been criticised by the indigenous community of the Kanaks as they fear marginalisation and dilution of electoral power. Since a constitutional reform in 2007, the electoral rolls for provincial elections remain frozen from 1998, thus limiting the voting rights only to the people who lived there before 1998. Opposition to the unfreezing of the electorate had triggered several demonstrations and riots with six deaths and hundreds injured. There had been barricades and road blockades. France had also imposed a state of emergency thus cutting down the freedom to communicate. The property damage estimated by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the region was EUR 200 million. French soldiers from the armed forces were deployed to secure the island's ports and the airport, and some 500 additional police officers were dispatched to assist the 1,800 already present in the territory. 

Second, Kanaks and their demand for independence New Caledonia, located in the Southwest Pacific had some 60,000 Kanaks in the 1700s who are the indigenous Melanesian inhabitants of the island. An independence movement started to emerge in the 1980s among the Kanaks as they were frustrated by their lower socio-economic status and non-involvement in the economic and political spheres. Even though France agreed to grant more autonomy to the region in 1988, the majority of the population termed “loyalists” particularly the descendants of French colonists wanted it to be part of French territory itself. Kanaks had rows with the Macron government over the Noumea Accords of 1998 that had to be negotiated after three referendums in 2021. 

Third, the geopolitical and strategic importance of New Caledonia. France, which is a nuclear power, has air and naval bases in New Caledonia which has geopolitical importance. The archipelago with its natural resources especially nickel is of major importance thus gaining the attention of many powers including China. Emmanuel Macron sees the region as an instrument against the Chinese advancements in the South Pacific indicating that he saw the archipelago as a trump card for France’s claims over the Indo-Pacific. In a statement resonating with his predecessor General de Gaulle, Macron declared that Caledonians “had a French role to play in this part of the world.” The archipelago which is integrated into the French military network includes 1,600 soldiers deployed in naval and air bases to ensure the protection of France’s sovereignty, especially against illegal fishing activities. France had also supported New Caledonia’s regional integration which has led to the region becoming a member of the Pacific Islands Forum along with the Pacific Regional Committee. China had initiated to increase its presence quietly by getting closer to tribal and political leaders mainly due to the region’s strategic position. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Akriti Sharma, Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Akhil Ajith, Shamini Velayutham, Dhriti Mukherjee, Vetriselvi Baskaran and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Forced urbanization of Tibetans, a report by the Human Rights Watch
On 22 May, Human Rights Watch said in its report that China is ramping up the forced urbanization of Tibetan villagers and herders. It mentioned that it is part of the government’s efforts to assimilate rural Tibetans through control over their language and traditional Buddhist culture. The report also criticized the Chinese government’s voluntary move. The report mentioned the forced relocations as violent actions against the ethnic minorities who are forced to adopt the Mandarin language and pledge their fealty to the ruling Communist Party in western and northern territories that include people from Tibetan, Xinjiang Uyghur, Mongolian, and other minority groups. China claimed Tibet as part of its territory for centuries, and the CCP took control during the 1949 Civil War. The report cited that by 2025 end, more than 930,000 rural Tibetans will have been relocated to urban centers. More than 3 million of the more than 4.5 million Tibetans in rural areas have been forced to build homes and give up their traditional nomadic lifestyles. The report cited China’s policies in Tibet to bring stability and development to the strategic border region.

China: Chinese Embassies in South Korea and Japan rebuke lawmakers visiting Taiwan for the Presidential inauguration
On 21 May, the Chinese embassy in South Korea and Japan expressed strong opposition to South Korean and Japanese lawmakers from visiting Taiwan to celebrate the inauguration ceremony of the newly sworn-in President. The embassy stated that this visit counters China-South Korea’s strategic relationship and their cooperative partnership. The Japanese embassy also said the move affects Sino-Japan relations. They also urged Japan to refrain from joining in with the US and to avoid disrupting peace in the Taiwan Strait.  Prior to this, the Chinese Foreign Minister warned that “Anyone who attempts to challenge the one-China principle will end in failure.” The relations between China- South Korea or Japan have increasingly turned sour as they pivot towards Taiwan.

China: Calls for a fair trial by the ICC
On 21 May, China expressed its desire to see the International Criminal Court (ICC) take an objective and fair stance and exercise power by the law. This comes as the ICC issued arrest warrants against Israeli and Hamas leaders. On 20 May, ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan said that the ICC had issued warrants against Israeli and Hamas leaders for alleged crimes committed during the Hamas-led 07 October attack on southern Israel and Israel's subsequent war on Gaza. Global Times quoted Khan’s statement that “Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant bear “criminal responsibility” for “war crimes and crimes against humanity.” China says that it supports a fair and lasting solution to the issue. According to Global Times, ICC’s arrest warrants are symbolic pressure and face enforcement challenges and would increase more moral and public pressure against Israel. Both the US and Israel had rejected the warrants. President Biden termed it as “outrageous,” whereas PM Netanyahu said that the ICC decision was a disgrace and an attack on Israel.

China: Plans to sanction three US defence companies
On 20 May, China’s Ministry of Commerce said that it plans to sanction three US companies for their sale to Taiwan. The Ministry said that the US companies named General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems, and Boeing Defense, Space and Security will be added to the “unreliable entities” list. Xinhua reported that these sanctioned entities will not be permitted to trade with China or make investments in the country. Also, the sanctions will prohibit the entry of senior executives from entering China. This comes as the US recently approved a military aid package for Taipei in April worth up to USD 1.9 billion to replenish its military equipment and training. China sees Taiwan as part of its territory and sees the security aid as conflict escalation along the strait.

China: Cracks down on multiple espionage cases in the space sector, says MSS
On 17 May, China’s intelligence agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS), said through its WeChat post that the country has tackled multiple espionage cases in the space sector and its linkage to certain countries in stealing sensitive Chinese aerospace technology. The MSS mentioned that certain countries targeted China’s technologies, such as satellite remote sensing, communication, navigation, and positioning technologies. It noted that space has become a strategic area of geopolitical rivalry. The investigation comes as part of China’s counter-espionage law, which was introduced in 2023. It also comes as Beijing eyes big ambitions for its space programme, including launching a crewed lunar mission by 2030 and becoming a world leader in space by 2050.

Japan: New whaling mothership, Kangei Maru departs for its maiden hunt
On 21 May, Japan launched its new 9,300-tonne vessel, Kangei Maru, for its whaling operations. The launch comes as the Japanese government defends it, saying that it's an integral part of Japanese culture. Ryosuke Oba said the ship contains an in-house processing facility where the meat is processed before refrigeration. Japan was criticized for exploiting a loophole in the International Whaling Commission (IWC) moratorium on commercial whaling that allows scientific hunts of whales, leading to its pullout in 2019. It is one of the three countries undertaking whaling operations in its waters alongside Norway and Iceland. Japan has hunted whales for protein for centuries and continued post World War 2. Hideki Tokoro, President of the whaling company, said that the Kangei maru would not venture into the Antarctic for commercial whaling.
  
Australia: Police arrested and charged 554 suspects accused of domestic violence
On 21 May, Australian police arrested and charged 554 domestic violence suspects in its four-day operations across the country. The arrests come as Australia suffers with the violent deaths of 28 women in 2024, with an average of one death every four days, which is higher than 14 women deaths in 2023. New South Wales said that it had arrested severe domestic violence offenders in the state. The Bondi Junction mall killings and the death of five women have raised the issue of gender-based and domestic violence. According to the 2023 OECD data, Australia’s domestic violence prevalence rate remains below the OECD average compared to the US, Canada, and Britain. Australian PM Anthony Albanese called the incident a national crisis and announced a series of measures to tackle the crisis. 

North Korea: To improve its nuclear deterrence posture after recent US subcritical nuclear tests
On 20 May, North Korea said that it vowed to strengthen its nuclear deterrence posture amid the recent US subcritical nuclear tests. The US’s National Nuclear Security Administration said that it has conducted a subcritical experiment at its Nevada test site to collect data to support the reliability and effectiveness of nuclear warheads. KCNA reported that North Korea will exercise its vested sovereign rights against the US’s unilateral actions. The sub-critical nuclear tests do not involve a nuclear explosion and do not trigger a fissile chain reaction. The Straits Times mentioned North Korea’s previous six underground nuclear tests and is preparing for the seventh test.

Australia: 30 Australians stuck in New Caledonia facing food shortages amid intense riots
On 18 May, Reuters reported that 30 Australians stuck in New Caledonia are facing food shortages as riots hit the Pacific Island territory. The riots brewed among the indigenous Kanak tribe over a bill passed in Paris that gives French citizens who have lived in New Caledonia for at least ten years the right to vote. The Australian citizens are stuck at the Chateau Royal resort. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Canberra was “working with authorities in France and New Caledonia, and like-minded partners including New Zealand, to assess options for Australians to safely depart.” She also said that the Noumea’s La Tontouta International Airport remained closed and urged Australians to remain cautious. 

South Asia
India: Gujarat ATS detained four Sri Lankans linked with IS
On 20 May, four Sri Lankan nationals were arrested by the Gujarat Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) on the grounds of finding links with Islamic State (IS). Director-General of Police Vikas Sahay detailed the four arrested took a flight from Colombo to Chennai and another flight from there to Ahmadabad. They were caught while waiting for the Pakistani handler.  ATS officials took them into custody and the investigation is under process. Officials stated that these arrested were already part of National Thowheeth Jamath – a banned Sri Lankan radical militant group. 

India: No attack on Indian students in Kyrgyzstan, confirms officials
On 19 May, the officials stated that there were no Indian students attacked in the recent violence that happened in the Kyrgyz Republic. The notice was issued after the online videos of Pakistani students asking for help from the government which is surfing all over social media. The statement reads: “There are no reports of any Indian being affected in the incidents that were circulated by unverified videos on Saturday. The Kyrgyz authorities have clarified and spoken strongly against the circulation of these videos. There are 17,000 Indian students and businessmen in Kyrgyz Republic and they are located in various parts of the country.” In response to the incident and concerns from political party leaders, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar took to X to say, “Monitoring the welfare of Indian students in Bishkek. The situation is reportedly calm now. Strongly advise students to stay in regular touch with the embassy.” 

Afghanistan: Unusual seasonal rains have ravaged different areas
On 19 May, The Associated Press reported that parts of Afghanistan have been severely impacted by flash floods due to unusually heavy seasonal rainfall. According to a Taliban spokesperson, a new round of heavy rainfall has battered four districts of the Faryab province leaving 66 dead, five injured and eight missing. A spokesman for the provincial governor in Faryab, Esmatullah Moradi, revealed that “around 1,500 houses were either completely or partially destroyed while hundreds of hectares (acres) of farmlands were washed away and more than 300 animals killed.”Another affected province is the western province of Ghor where 50 people have died so far. 

Pakistan: Intelligence agencies intensify surveillance following rise in potential threats
On 17 May, The Express Tribune reported on the intensification of surveillance by intelligence agencies on militants associated with banned outfits, specifically those listed on the Fourth Schedulers. This is a response to intelligence reports indicating potential threats posed by militants linked to banned outfits and targeted attacks on police officers in Rawalpindi and Lahore. Agencies explained that the focus is on preemptive measures to counter any potential security breaches. Recently, militants affiliated with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) confronted Dolphin Force personnel, killing one member. Among the Fourth Schedulers, 51 are from Rawalpindi, 32 are from Attock, 36 are from Chakwal and four are from Jhelum. Authorities are currently tracking the financial transactions of these individuals actively to uncover discrepancies that may point toward illegal activities.

Pakistan: Girls school bombed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa within eight days
On 17 May, militants bombed Sofia Noor School, a high school for girls in Wana tehsil of South Waziristan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province. No casualty was been reported, however, a portion of the school building was destroyed as a result of the attack. Earlier, on 9 May, another girls' school, Islamia Girls School, was bombed in Sheva town of North Waziristan making the recent attack the second one in eight days. After the attack, there were claims of extortion demands making rounds on social media which the locals have “categorically denied.”

Pakistan: Pakistani students in Kyrgyzstan’s capital Bishkek attacked by “local mobs”
On 17 May, Pakistani students studying in Kyrgyzstan’s capital Bishkek were attacked by “local mobs”. Videos of the attacks surfaced on social media where locals were harassing and attacking students and the latter pleading for help from their home country. However, Pakistan’s ambassador to Bishkek, Hasan Zaigham has denied any casualties or rape but affirmed “many injuries” and advised the students to stay indoors until the situation improved. On 18 May, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar termed the attacks “deeply concerning.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also issued a statement assuring that he was “constantly monitoring the situation”. According to information provided by Pakistan’s Embassy in Bishkek, foreign students, including those from Pakistan, were attacked “by locals in the aftermath of their brawl with Egyptian nationals a few days ago.” Subsequently, Dar has visited Kyrgyzstan and the government has facilitated the return of Pakistani students by arranging special flights. 

Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Yemen: Houthi group targets US drones
On 21 May, the Houthi rebels asserted that they had shot down a US drone on the Arabian Peninsula. Similarly, on May 18 the Houthi groups intercepted US’s MQ-9 Reaper drone. Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree in a statement said that the drone was intercepted through a locally made ‘surface-to-air missile’. He further asserted that the drones have ‘hostile missions over the southern province of Bayda.  Meanwhile, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) acknowledged the attack but, refrained from commenting on the attack. 

Iran: President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian die in a helicopter crash
On 19 May, a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian crashed near the Iran-Azerbaijan border killing everyone onboard. Their death was confirmed by the State media on 20 May after the wreckage was found in Iran’s mountainous East Azerbaijan province with no sign of life. The entourage was returning from Azerbaijan where the President had travelled to inaugurate two dams. In the aftermath, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced five days of state mourning. As per the provisions in the Iranian Constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber took over as interim president. Further, Ali Bagheri Kani was appointed interim foreign minister. 

Lebanon: Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah members and pro-Iran fighters
On 20 May, four members of Hezbollah were killed and several Lebanese civilians were injured due to Israeli airstrikes in south Lebanon. The attacks on the Lebanese border reached the Syrian city of Al-Qusayr. According to Arab News, the Israeli drones have had two successive raids on the residential areas in the town of Naqoura. The Israeli military using artillery shells also targeted the outskirts of Naqoura causing civilian casualties. Hezbollah asserted that it had retaliated with Burkan missiles against the Israeli military. The group further said that it used ‘suitable weapons’ to target the sites. Separately, according to a war monitor, six pro-Iran fighters were killed in Israeli airstrikes in Syria near the Lebanon border. 

Lebanon: Protests against security plan
On 19 May, motorcycle owners in Beirut and the southern suburbs protested against a ‘security plan’ launched by the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities. There were gunfire exchanges between the protesters and the internal security forces in the suburbs of Beirut. The situation heightened as the protesters marched towards the ministry claiming that the decision ‘to confiscate unregistered motorcycles was being made randomly and arbitrarily while the vehicle registration office had been closed for years.’ The usage of motorcycles spiked since 2019 due to the economic crisis and has led to a rise of motorcycle thieves in Beirut, precisely on airport roads and highways to the interior areas. Videos of security forces confiscating motorcycles were shared by social media activists; meanwhile, owners said that the registration service was ‘inaccessible’ leading to the lack of registration. Beirut MP Nabil Badr said: “From the start of the security operation, we have urged a comprehensive effort in government agencies, particularly the Car and Motorcycle Registration Department, to help citizens resolve their breaches. The minister has acknowledged the issues and assured that the strict measures will be eased.” 

South Africa: Zuma showcases his strength in Soweta election campaign
On 18 May, South African President Jacob Zuma while campaigning at the Soweto township, showcased his strength. At the rally, Zulu warriors marched around the Orlando stadium with spears and shields, and covered-up men sang and danced. South African famous singers including big Zulu entertained the crowd. Zuma resigned from the African National Congress (ANC) and joined the opposition’ uMkhonto weSizwe party. The crowd shouted the former president’s name. His decision to host his campaign in Soweta is crucial as it is the economic center of South Africa. The place also holds political symbolism as it was at the forefront of the fight against the apartheid system which raised ANC in 1994. However, the breakaway in the party faces threats to win the election. Zuma was ousted as President in 1018 by Cyril Ramaohosa. Later, in 2021, he was sentenced to 15 months on the allegations of contempt of court for defying an order to appear before an inquiry during his term. Thus, his eligibility to serve as a lawmaker in the next tenure is yet to be ruled by the country’s court.

DR Congo: Army asserts successful quashing of the attempted coup
On 20 May, the DR Congo army asserted that it had quashed a coup attempt by Congolese and foreign fighters against President Felix Tshisekedi. army spokesperson Brig Gen Sylavin Ekenge confirmed the arrest of three Americans and a British citizen. On 19 May, almost 20 assailants wearing army uniforms attacked the house of former Chief of Staff, Vital Kamerhe, where two guards and an attacker were killed. Local media reports say that the attackers belong to the New Zaire Movement which has links with formerly exiled DR Congo politician Christian Malanga. The spokesperson confirmed Marcel Malanga, son of Mr Malanga was the one among the three Americans detained. The US Ambassador to DR Congo stated that she was “shocked” by knowing American involvement in the attack. She took to X to write, “Rest assured that we will cooperate with the DR Congo authorities to the fullest extent possible as they investigate these criminal acts and hold accountable any US citizen involved.” Apart from this, the Japanese Ambassador in the Congo warned citizens to not come out. However, there were no public statements by President Tshisekedi. 

South Africa: Top court bars Zuma from general elections
On 20 May, South Africa’s highest Court barred former President Zuma from contesting in the next week’s general elections on the grounds of his 15-month sentence for contempt of court. He was detained in 2021 for refusing to appear before the court for investigation which ended his presidency in 2018. After his release, he quit the ANC and formed a party named uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party. MK Secretary General Sihle Ngubane expressed animosity with the ruling and noted that the ruling will not affect the Party’s election campaign. The election commission announced the removal of his name from the party’s parliamentary candidates; however, his image will exist on ballot papers among others. Zuma is yet to comment on the ruling. Meanwhile, Cyril Ramaphosa stated: "The court has ruled, and as I have often said, that is the highest court in the land and we have given the judiciary the right to arbitrate disputes amongst us in terms of our constitution." 

Europe and the Americas
The UK: Government apologizes for blood scandal
On 20 May 2024, the government of the UK represented by UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak apologized for the worst healthcare disaster in the infected blood scandal between 1970 and 1991. The scam involved the death of thousands of people along with more than 30,000 people getting infected with either HIV or Hepatitis C due to the treatment with unsafe blood products. After a long-running public inquiry with a report that blamed the failures of the health service, officials, and ministers who had ignored to acknowledge their mistakes, apologized and approved packages for compensation. Sunak promised to deliver the costs and also to speak directly to the victims and families. The report chaired by Brian Langstaff claimed that up to 2,900 people, including young children, are estimated to have died by 2019, with many more becoming severely ill. The patients were knowingly exposed to “unacceptable” infection risks as many of them were not told that they had been infected after the blood transfusions. Since thousands of patients who had haemophiliac were treated by the National Health Service during the 1970s and 80s, Langstaff slammed both the health service and government for a ‘lack of condor’. He particularly criticised the veteran Conservative politician Ken Clarke, the health secretary in 1980 who insisted that there was “no conclusive proof” that HIV could be spread through blood. The worst scandal was brought out mainly due to the usage of factor concentrate also known as Factor VIII to treat hemophiliacs which involved the pooling of blood plasma from thousands of donors. The officials and doctors ignored the risk factor of the whole component getting infected with one sample and irresponsibly implemented it. Now the victims are looking forward to the compensation promised by the government.

Europe: Moldova and the EU sign defence partnership
On 21 May, Politico reported that Moldova signing of a security and defence partnership with the EU. Moldova has been a critic of Russia after it invaded Ukraine although not a member of NATO or the EU. The country signed a deal with France to train its armed forces and boost military cooperation in March 2024. The new partnership with the EU is aimed at enhancing the country’s resilience with EU assistance. In addition, the agreement will make it easier to collaborate on cybersecurity and disinformation campaigns. It will also support Moldova's defence industry through the European instrument for peace. 

Russia: Launches tactical nuclear drills in southern military district
On 21 May, RT reported on Russian defence ministry statement on the deployment of troops in its southern military district to carry out tactical nuclear drills. According to the report, this exercise will be a deterrent in the conflict between Russia and the West, to showcase its ability. In the drill, the nuclear, forces will carry our delivery of nuclear weapons from storage to the troops, arm tactical missiles and prepare for missile launches. For this, Iskander-M systems, 9M723-1 ballistic missiles 9M728 cruise missiles and tactical warheads with a capacity of five to 50 kilotons will be used. In a statement released by the defence ministry: “Aimed at maintaining the combat readiness of the personnel and equipment of the non-strategic nuclear-weapon units.” The southern military district covers the area between the Black and the Caspian seas, a total of 19 areas along with the Crimean and four annexed districts by Russia.

Haiti: International airport reopens following three-month forced shutdown
On 19 May, Haiti’s international airport in its capital city of Port-au-Prince reopened after a three-month shutdown due to relentless gang violence. Though the Toussaint-Louverture airport’s reopening is expected to help ease a shortage of essential supplies, gangs still control around 80 per cent of the capital. While one commercial passenger flight left for Miami from the airport, US-based airlines are not expected to use the airport till late May or early June. Until the reopening of this airport, the sole airport operating in the country was in the coastal city of Cap-Haitien, which was out of reach for many as the roads connected to the airport were controlled by gangs.

Argentina: Escalation of diplomatic row with Spain with recalling of Spanish ambassador
On 21 May, Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares told reporters that the Spanish ambassador to Argentina “will permanently stay in Madrid,” amid an escalating diplomatic spat between both countries following derogatory remarks by Argentina’s President Javier Milei. Albares added that while the Spanish government has “no interest in nor desire for any escalation,” the “government must defend the dignity and sovereignty of Spanish institutions, especially when the aggression occurs in the capital of Spain.” Milei, a far-right libertarian, had earlier levied corruption allegations against the wife of Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, saying that “global elites don’t realise how destructive it can be to implement the ideas of socialism.” In recent weeks, both countries have traded barbs over issues such as drug use and poverty. Responding to Spain’s decision to recall the ambassador, Milei criticised the “absurd” decision and said: “It is absurd, typical of an arrogant socialist.” He also accused Sanchez of having an “inferiority complex” and added that he should seek out a “psychologist for him to mature.” The decision, according to Milei “stains the international image of Spain and [shows] how arrogant they are, like believing that they are the state and that no one can tell them anything.” He denied speculations that Argentina would also recall its ambassador to Spain.
 
Colombia: Surge in violent attacks by FARC-EMC rebel group
On 20 May, there was an uptick in violence in southwestern Colombia following a bomb blast that injured six people in the city of Jamundi, while an attack on a police station in the town of Morales killed at least two police officers. The government linked the attacks to the FARC-EMC rebel group, a breakaway faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia which refused to sign a 2016 peace deal. After walking away from a new round of peace negotiations with the government earlier in April, the group has been staging a series of attacks on the military and police. A Colombia analyst at the International Crisis Group, Elizabeth Dickinson, said that the attacks show how the EMC’s western faction is attempting to become the “only armed or criminal group in Colombia that is directly attacking the state.” She opined that the “split within the EMC is real and is likely to be permanent,” indicating that Colombia is heading “towards a situation of atomisation and fragmentation in the conflict which has pretty dramatic implications for civilians.”
 
Mexico: Uptick in electoral violence in Chiapas
On 19 May, local authorities and candidates in the Mexican state of Chiapas stated that following attacks on political candidates, at least 14 people have been killed in recent dates. Of these attacks, the latest was on 18 May, when a car containing Nicolás Noriega, who is running to lead the municipal government of the town of Mapastepec, was targeted. Noriega confirmed that he was wounded, and at least five people from his campaign were shot. He took to Facebook to state: “I deeply mourn the deaths of my friends, whose lives were taken in a cowardly manner. Evil is never going to reign in our hearts, because there are more of us who love life, who think of doing good.” Chiapas has become violence-prone as two main Mexican cartels have been clashing to try and gain control of the neighbouring Guatemala border. Earlier on 18 May, the Chiapas Prosecutor’s Office confirmed an attack against Morena candidate Robertony Orozco, who was attacked on a highway. The attack resulted in three deaths and the injury of two others.

The US: Police beat and arrest pro-Palestinian protestors in Brooklyn
On 18 May, protestors gathered in the Bay Ridge neighbourhood of Brooklyn, an area that is home to a large Muslim community, to protest the war in Gaza. During the demonstrations which were to mark the Nakba- the ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in 1948, police beat and arrested several individuals. Freelance journalist Katie Smith told Al Jazeera: “Protesters began to march in the street and shortly after, the New York Police Department came in from a side street and started grabbing people at random.” She further claimed that protestors were “tackled to the ground and were often placed under arrest by multiple officers, who beat them, punching them on their upper bodies and around their heads.” Videos taken showed that police dragged demonstrators away, and the community expressed “outrage” as the area has seen pro-Palestinian marches for over a decade but never such a brutal police response. 

About the authors

Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham, Akhil Ajith and Vetriselvi Baskaran are Research Assistants at NIAS. Neha Tresa George, and Ken B Varghese are undergraduate students at Madras Christian College. 

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