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CWA # 1359, 28 June 2024
Conflict Weekly
Israel-Hezbollah Conflict, Terror Attacks in Dagestan, and Protests in Kenya

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #234, 28 June 2024, Vol.5, No.26
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta, Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph

Israel: The conflict with Hezbollah intensifies 
Ayan Datta

In the news
On 25 June, US Defence Secretary Llyod Austin met his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant. Austin warned that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah may spark a regional confrontation. He sought a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. 

On 24 June, US Air Force General Charles Q Brown said that Iran “would be more inclined to support Hezbollah” than Hamas if it felt Hezbollah was “significantly threatened.”

On 23 June, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin and Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant said that the IDF would lower its intensity of fighting Hamas and shift its focus to the northern border with Lebanon. 
 
On 18 June, Hezbollah released footage of Israel’s sea and airports being captured using surveillance drones. The same day, Israel’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, said that the country was finalising operational plans for a Lebanon war, in which “Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely beaten.” 

Issues at large
First, a brief note on Hezbollah and Lebanon. The Hezbollah was formed after the 1982 Israel-Lebanon war. On 6 June 1982, the IDF invaded southern Lebanon to eliminate the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) units sheltering there. Israel’s military laid siege to Beirut and occupied territories in Southern Lebanon. The Hezbollah (meaning “Allah’s party”) was formed the same year to remove Israeli forces from Lebanon and resist Western influence in the Middle East. Iran has militarily and financially supported Hezbollah since its inception, using its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It enjoyed support among Lebanon’s Shias, who resided in the country's southern, Beirut and Dahiya regions, which were the worst affected by Israel’s attacks and occupation. In 1985, Hezbollah released a manifesto, defining itself as a political party and a resistance group, and identified the destruction of Israel as one of its primary goals. 

Second, a brief overview of Hezbollah-Israel relations since the beginning of the Gaza War. On 8 October, Hezbollah expressed solidarity with Hamas' attack on Israel and launched rockets into Israel. Since then, the armed group regularly carried out numerous missile attacks on northern Israel. In June 2024, it began using drones to attack Israeli military positions. Israel carried out airstrikes, artillery shelling, air defence systems, IDF raids, and radar-jamming systems to counter Hezbollah. According to the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, both sides have attacked each other around 4400 times.

Third, Lebanon and the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Lebanon does not recognise the state of Israel. The two have been at war since 1948. However, Lebanon recognises the state of Palestine. For both Lebanon and Hezbollah, Israel should end all operations on the Lebanon border and return the disputed Shebaa farms region, which Israel annexed in 1981. For Israel, these regions are legitimate Israeli territory post-annexation. For Lebanon, Hezbollah shall be disarmed and continue as a political organization. For Israel, they shall be defeated militarily. However, Hezbollah's influence over Lebanon’s political system complicates relations between Lebanon and Israel. 

Issues at large
First, the Israel-Hezbollah conflict might expand into the larger region with Iran and the US backing Hezbollah and Israel, respectively. Such a conflict would intensify the US presence in the Middle East. With its focus shifting towards China, the US wants to avoid further escalation and expansion of the conflict. Iran could use any intensified conflict on its Lebanon border as a justification to declare its nuclear status.

Second, Israel’s capabilities to wage a two-front war. In the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973, Israel fought on multiple fronts and emerged victorious. However, in those wars, it faced the organised militaries of the Arab countries. Today, its threats are non-state actors. Hamas and Hezbollah use guerilla tactics, tunnel networks and hide among civilians. In case of a sustained conflict on both fronts, Israel would face greater challenges to winning a two-front war. 

Dagestan: Terror attacks expose Russia’s vulnerabilities
Padmashree Anandhan
 
In the news
On 23 June, gunfire and intense fighting took place in an Orthodox church and Jewish synagogue in central Derbent and Makhachkala, the capital of the Republic of Dagestan, with 40 held hostage. According to the Interfax media, Russian security services blocked the perpetrators using military hardware and personnel carriers. The regional interior ministry confirmed the death of an orthodox priest, 20 others, including policemen and the injury of 46 others. 

On the same day, TASS reported that the suspects of the attack were identified as “militants” with “foreign” weapons and members of “international terrorist organisation.”

On 23 June, the Russian Investigative Committee launched an investigation into the attacks, and the Russian National Antiterrorism Committee began a counter-terrorism operation in Dagestan. 

On 24 June, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, said: “Everything possible must be done to prevent even the possibility of radicalization of religious life, to exclude any forms of extremism and ethnic enmity.”

On 24 June, The Washington Post reported on Russia’s lawmakers blaming Ukraine and NATO for the attacks. It mentioned reports from pro-Russian media, Al-Azaim, which linked the attacks to have been carried out by the Islamic State.
 
Issues at large
First, a brief background to Dagestan’s geography, demography and politics. The terror attacks, explosions and Russian troop special operations are not new in Dagestan. The republic is in Russia’s north Caucasus on the western shores of the Caspian Sea. 95 per cent of the population belongs to 30 ethnic groups. According to Russian government statistics, the communities are Muslims, Christians, and Jews. The region is home to most Muslims and various Islamic religious practices. Among them, Judaism is a long-stood religion with Persian-speaking Mountain Jews. The Caucasus was merged into the Russian empire during the nineteenth century alongside the rise of Muslim and Jewish resentment towards Tsarist, Soviet and Russian rule. It witnessed two Chechnya wars with Russians and separatists between 1994-1996 and 1999-2000, respectively. Following the defeat of Chechen insurgents, the Islamist group has been a persisting challenge for Russia.

Second, a profile of the recent attacks in Russia. Russia has faced terrorism for the past 30 years; the latest being the Crocus City Hall attack in March. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) summoned 11 suspects until now to court. In the past 20 years, terrorism across Russia aggravated from small-scale to major attacks, resulting in several deaths. Several attacks have been linked to extremists and radical Islamic movements. Since 1991, Chechen radicals have carried out several outrages. In the First Chechen War, the radicals frequently took hostage. This remained the common tactic. Russia tackled it through counterattacks and arrests. Between 1995 and 2006, extremists led by Shamil Basayev carried out the biggest terrorist attacks. Russia thwarted it through special operations and the execution of the terrorists. Although terrorist attacks continued in the form of explosions in trains, streets and air and captivating hostages, Russia used its special forces and emergency operations to release the hostages. Until 2013, the terrorist attacks by Chechen group continued, killing and injuring more than 1000. The attacks and Chechen wars came to an end when Umarov (the Chechen terrorist leader who created the Caucasus Emirate Jihadist organisation) was eliminated. Later, the Islamists who disbanded from the Caucasus Emirate became part of the Islamic State. 

Third, ISIS-K and Russia. The ISIS-K (Islamic State – Khorasan), formed in 2014, consists of ousted members of the Pakistani Taliban. Its network expands to Central Asia, Russia, and Chechnya, with terrorism spreading into Iran, Turkey and Russia. The triggering factor for ISIS has been Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan and Syria (Support to the Assad regime), which helped them fight steadily against ISIS. 
 
In perspective
First, Russia’s vulnerability to terrorist attacks. At the periphery, Russia fights its geopolitical war against Ukraine while the inside remains vulnerable to terrorist attacks. It’s a 30-year struggle for Russia against the Chechen, followed by the ISIS group, which exposes the loopholes, making it a softer target for ISIS compared to the US or Europe. One of the possibilities could be from the entry of nationals or Russians from Central Asia, especially Tajikistan, which has been home to suspects.

Second, ISIS is against Russia’s role in Middle-East and Muslim repression. On withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, its activities increased, leaving Russia as the major player in the Middle East and the sole target for ISIS. Apart from this, Russia’s strong security stance and repressive approach in Dagestan (Southern periphery) towards the Muslims after the Chechen wars also serves as another trigger.

Kenya: Protests force the government to withdraw the financial bill
Anu Maria Joseph
 
In the news
On 26 June, Kenyan President William Ruto withdrew the finance bill following the countrywide violent protests. Ruto stated: "I run a government, but I also lead people, and the people have spoken." 

On 25 June, protests against tax reforms turned violent after the lawmakers passed the bill with several concessions. The demonstrators tried to breach Parliament House and set fire to parts of the building in the capital Nairobi. Police fired live ammunition, killing 22.

On 25 June, President William Ruto stated that all means would be used to "thwart any attempts by dangerous criminals to undermine the security and stability of our country." He deployed military to disperse the protesters. Ruto added: "Violence, disrespect and wanton destruction of property and blatant attack on public institutions shall not be condoned."

On the same day, the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, expressed that he was "deeply saddened by the reports of deaths and injuries - including of journalists and medical personnel - connected to protests and street demonstrations in Kenya." 

On the same day, the AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat called on the stakeholders “to engage in constructive dialogue to address the contentious issues that led to the protests in the supreme interest of Kenya.”
 
Issues at large
First, the bill against the economic crisis. The financial bill, introduced in May, imposes a 16 per cent value-added tax (VAT) on bread, a 25 per cent excise duty on cooking oil, a five per cent tax on digital financial transactions, a 2.5 per cent annual tax on vehicles and an "eco levy" on plastic goods. The government aim to collect USD 2.7 billion in taxes to address the debt crisis which amounts to USD 80 billion. The country's public debt records 68 per cent of the GDP. Despite the concessions, the protesters claim that the new taxes would further increase the cost of living. The trading economics recorded the country’s inflation rate at 5.1 per cent in May. According to the World Bank, although Kenya is one of the most developing countries in Africa, a third of its 52 million people live in poverty due to the high cost of living.

Second, recurring protests against Ruto. Ruto took office in September 2022, promising to address unemployment and poverty. However, a month later, Ruto removed fuel subsidies, increasing the costs of basic commodities. In July 2023, violent anti-government protests erupted against a new bill, which introduced a five per cent housing levy, and a 16 per cent tax on petroleum products; 23 people were killed during the protests. 

Third, increasing young discontent. The protesters were predominantly young. It began as angry responses in social media including TikTok, Twitter, WhatsApp and Instagram. It revolved into demonstrations and live streaming of clashes with police without any political backing. The hashtags #OccupyParliament and #RejectFinanceBill2024 went popular on social media. The police arrested more than 200 young protesters. A 15 per cent withholding tax for digital content creators and a five per cent tax on digital transactions were considered the triggers. 

Fourth, the government's harsh response to the protests. The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNHRC) reported that 21 protesters have disappeared since 24 June. Police used live ammunition, rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannons to disperse the protests. Ruto deployed military to quell the protesters stating that his government would prevent its recurrence “at whatever cost.”

Fifth, the debt crisis of African countries. Kenya is not the only country in Africa vulnerable to similar instabilities attributed to high debts. According to the World Bank, nine African countries are struggling with debt distress in 2024 and 15 are at high risk of distress. The majority of the population in the continent pays their taxes to spend on interest payments rather than services. They rely on repeated borrowing, leading to an increased total debt burden. 
 
In perspective
The withdrawal of the bill is a victory of the protests. The involvement of the young generation and their methods without political backing were the first of a kind for the administration

Ruto received widespread international criticism over the use of force. The sudden shift in his stance is likely an attempt to save face in front of the international community. The US has supported Kenya in deploying its police forces in Haiti. However, it is unclear how the country would address the debt crisis. Any further financial reforms would likely face a similar popular reaction, implying that the administration is at a crossroads. 

Meanwhile, the increasing debt crisis in Africa would leave the governments to either increase taxes or wait for debt reconstruction. The successful young protests in Kenya would likely encourage the youth across the continent to seek a similar method to protest against any financial reforms by respective administrations.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Akhil Ajith, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Ayan Datta, Ken B Varghese, Mugdha Chaturvedi, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Ministry of Public Security calls for the death penalty for Taiwanese separatist  “ringleaders”
On 21 June, China intensified its stance against Taiwan's independence by introducing guidelines threatening to impose the death penalty for “diehard” separatists in Taiwan. This move came amid heightened tensions following the inauguration of Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te, whom China labelled a “separatist.” The new guidelines call for severe punishment of those advocating Taiwan’s independence, with the death penalty applicable for “ringleaders” causing “particularly serious harm to the state and the people.” An official of China's Ministry of Public Security, Sun Ping, stated: “The sharp sword of legal action will always hang high.” Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council denounced the measure, asserting: “The Beijing authorities have no jurisdiction over Taiwan, and the Chinese communists' so-called laws and norms have no binding force on our people.” According to the Guardian, although China claimed these guidelines align with existing laws, including the 2005 anti-secession law, their practical impact is limited as Chinese courts lack jurisdiction in Taiwan. 

Taiwan: “Democracy is not a crime and autocracy is the real evil,” says President on Chinese death penalty threat 
On 24 June, after China threatened to impose the death penalty against “diehard” Taiwan independence separatists, Taiwanese President, Lai Chang-te stated: “Democracy is not a crime and autocracy is the real evil.” During a conference at the presidential office in Taipei, he asserted: “China has absolutely no right to sanction Taiwan’s people just because of the positions they hold. According to China, anyone who does not uphold reunification is therefore a Taiwan independence supporter.” Chang-te expressed his desire to “call to face up the existence of the Republic of China and have exchanges and dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected legitimate government.”

China: Eight dead in Hunan in a landslide
On 23 June, eight people died in a landslide in the Hunan province, as extreme rains continued to batter southern China and extend to other parts of the country. More than 300 rescuers from local police, emergency workers, power and health authorities gathered to rescue the victims. Several cities in Hunan province were affected by the extreme weather, with the heaviest rainfall recorded at Taoyuan County. Hunan’s Water Resources Department reported the rise of water in multiple rivers to a record height of 314 feet. Six flood alerts were issued in the provincial capital Changsha and neighbouring cities.

China: Semi-official nuclear arms talks resume after five years
On 21 June, Reuters reported that the US and China restarted semi-official nuclear arms discussions in March after a five-year hiatus. During the track-two talks in Shanghai, Chinese representatives assured their US counterparts that they would not resort to nuclear threats over Taiwan. The US organiser of these talks David Santoro added that the Chinese delegation told the “US side that they were absolutely convinced that they are able to prevail in a conventional fight over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons.” According to Pentagon estimates, China's nuclear arsenal grew by over 20 per cent between 2021 and 2023, projecting it to reach 1,000 warheads by 2030. A US State Department spokesperson noted that although these track-two discussions offer a channel for dialogue, they cannot replace formal negotiations, highlighting China's “refusal to substantively engage” in official talks about nuclear build-up. 

South Korea: President Yoon condemns North Korea's recent “anachronistic acts” 
On 25 June, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol criticised North Korea's recent “anachronistic acts,”  referring to its military alliance with Russia and provocative acts against South Korea. The statement came after North Korea and Russia signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, and North Korea repeatedly sent trash-filled balloons to South Korea. During a speech commemorating the Korean War's 74th anniversary, Yoon stated: “North Korea insists on a path of regression and remains the last frozen ground on the planet, while South Korea has been on the course of freedom and prosperity.” On 24 June, North Korea launched around 350 balloons filled with waste into North Korea, which Yoon described as a “mean and irrational provocation.” 

South Korea: Seoul to consider arms supply to Ukraine amidst the Russia-North Korea agreement 
On 20 June, South Korea’s National Security Adviser, Chang Ho-jin, stated that the extent of South Korea’s arms supply to Ukraine would be determined by Russia’s relations with North Korea. This marked a potential shift from South Korea's previous policy of supplying non-lethal aid to Ukraine. On 21 June, the presidential office spokesperson emphasised: “There are various options for providing weapons, and our position... depends on how Russia approaches the situation going forward.” Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine would be a “big mistake.”

Malaysia: Suspected individuals arrested over threats against the King and others
On 24 June, eight individuals were detained by the Malaysian authorities for alleged terror-linked threats against Sultan Ibrahim Ibni Sultan Iskandar and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Six men and two women were arrested under the allegation of suspected links to Daesh and the Islamic State. Minister of Home Affairs Saifuddin Nasution Ismail stated: “An initial investigation by the police has also found that there are threats against His Majesty the (king), the prime minister, prominent figures and top leadership of the Malaysian police force.” 

Myanmar: Junta troops killed in the Mandalay region
On 26 June, a skirmish with the Natogyi People’s Defence Force (Natogyi PDF) in Myingyan District in the Mandalay Region led to the death of over 40 Myanmar junta military troops. According to the PDF group, which formed Myingyan District PDF Battalion 4 under the command of the civilian National Unity Government (NUG), along with several other resistance groups they were fighting the regime forces. According to the residents, the regime forces burnt down around 600 civilian houses in seven villages and killed four civilians.

South Asia
Pakistan: IED blast in Kurram kills five soldiers
On 21 June, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) revealed that an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast killed five Pakistani soldiers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Kurram district. The ISPR stated that “sanitisation of the area” was carried out to neutralise the terrorists, and reiterated that the “security forces of Pakistan are determined to eliminate the menace of terrorism and such sacrifices of our brave soldiers further strengthen our resolve.” Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq, and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi condemned the attack. Previously, on 16 June, another IED blast had killed four members of a family in Kurram. In May, at least four security personnel were injured in attacks on checkpoints in the district.

Pakistan: Punjab imposes Section 144 after PTI announces nationwide protests
On 21 June, the Punjab government imposed Section 144 for seven days to “prevail law and order situation” after the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) called for nationwide protests demanding the release of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. The Home Department stated that protests and public gatherings were banned to prevent unrest. The order read: “It has been observed that in view of the prevailing law and order situation and security threats, any gathering assembly is likely to provide soft targets to terrorists and miscreants, which not only pose serious security threats but is also likely to cause a threat to the public at peace and order as well as inconvenience to public at large.” PTI leader Omar Ayub condemned the imposition of Section 144 and asked the speaker to rule that the ban violated the constitution. 

Pakistan: Interior minister approves deployment of FC to maintain peace in PoK
On 23 June, the Ministry of Interior approved the deployment of the paramilitary Frontier Constabulary (FC) in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) to maintain peace in the region. Pakistan’s Minister of Interior Mohsin Naqvi and PoK’s Prime Minister Chaudhary Anwarul Haq met and discussed the political and law and order situation and the upcoming budget for FY25. Naqvi assured Haq that promises made to PoK’s people were being fulfilled. He added that cooperation would be extended to maintain peace in the area, expressing the federal government’s commitment to PoK’s government and people.

Pakistan: Federal cabinet approves Anti-terror operation Azm-e-Istehkam 
On 25 June, the federal cabinet approved the Azm-e-Istehkam military operation, a “reinvigorated national counter-terrorism drive,” despite protests by the opposition parties. On 22 June, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif approved the operation during the Apex Committee meeting. He assured that citizens would not be troubled and that the intelligence-based operations would be carried out only against terrorists. The operation was approved with the consensus of all stakeholders. The Prime Minister’s office stated: “The approval of the operation symbolizes the national resolve to eradicate all forms of extremism and terrorism from the country.” Opposition parties, including the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam Fazl, and Awami National Party, raised concerns over the new military operation. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Minister of Defence Khawaja Asif assured that the government would satisfy concerns of the PTI regarding the anti-militancy operation.

Sri Lanka: Navy arrests 22 Indian fishermen on charges of poaching
On 22 June, the Sri Lankan Navy arrested 22 Indian fishermen from Tamil Nadu on the charges of poaching at Delft Island. Three boats were seized and the arrested were taken to the Kankesanthurai Port for further investigation. On 15 June, fishing was resumed after a 61-day annual ban. Two fishermen died within two days of the resumption of fishing. Fishing communities from Rameshwaram, Mandapam, and Thangachimadam in Tamil Nadu raised concerns over the government’s inaction in retrieving the boats and trawlers. They appealed to the Tamil Nadu government to urge the central government to secure the release of fishermen from Sri Lanka.

India: Protests and counter-protests in Manipur
On 24 June, the Kuki-Zo community staged rallies in Manipur, demanding a separate Union Territory under Article 239A of the Constitution. The protestors stressed that this was the solution to the ongoing ethnic strife in Manipur between two groups, Kuki-Zo and Meiteis. Meanwhile, there were counter-protests by women vendors along with other women groups in Imphal, demanding the Indian government to stop supporting the “Kuki militants.” They called for “no separate administration.”

India: Student protest over irregularities in conducting national examinations
On 24 June, the police detained 80 students in Jantar Mantar in New Delhi to prevent their planned march towards the Parliament. Several student bodies and students have been protesting against the irregularities of national-level examinations, National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) and UGC-NET, held by the National Testing Agency (NTA). Additionally, there were protests at Delhi University and Jawaharlal Nehru University. On 26 June, student organisations announced an indefinite protest over the issue.

The Middle East and Africa
Iran-Bahrain: Talks to restore political relations
On 23 June, Al Jazeera reported that Iran and Bahrain have agreed to begin negotiations towards “restoring political relations.” The development came in the wake of a meeting between the Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani and the acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, held in Tehran on 23 June. Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “The two sides agreed in this meeting to establish the necessary mechanisms to begin talks between the two countries to study how to resume political relations between them.” Bahrain had cut diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016 owing to tensions between the latter and Saudi Arabia, Bahrain’s key ally. 

Iran: US imposes sanctions on “sprawling shadow banking network” 
On 25 June, the US Department of the Treasury imposed fresh economic sanctions on 50 people and several firms across Hong Kong, the UAE, and the Marshall Islands. The department accused them of being involved in a “sprawling shadow banking network” for the Iranian military. They allegedly assisted Iran in facilitating the sale of oil and petrochemicals and “illicit access to the international financial system.” The revenue thus generated was allegedly used to buy weapons, fund Iran’s proxies including Yemen’s Houthis and finance drone transfers to Russia. It was further alleged that drones supplied to Russia by Iran had been used in the Ukraine war.

The Red Sea: USS Dwight D Eisenhower departs after nine months of anti-Houthi operations
On 22 June, the US aircraft carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower departed after nine months of deployment in the Red Sea. Eisenhower played a major role in protecting commercial vehicles from Houthi missiles. The nuclear-powered carrier would return for repairs to the naval station at Norfolk, West Virginia. The USS Theodore Roosevelt would head to the Middle East to take its place. The US Central Command stated that the carrier demonstrated the US’ “commitment to regional stability and protected freedom of navigation throughout the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.” 

Israel: IDF responds to gunfire near WFP team
On 21 June, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) responded to reports of gunfire near the World Food Programme (WFP) team in the Israeli-designated “humanitarian route” in the Gaza Strip. The IDF stated that WFP “were not the target of the operation, and they were not harmed during the strike.” Separately, the IDF said that it was examining the Red Cross’ claims of an attack in the al-Mawasi area which killed 22 people. The IDF assured that “the incident will be quickly examined and its findings will be presented” to its international partners. 

Yemen: Houthis unveil design of new drone boat
On 22 June, the Houthis unveiled the design for their Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) or drone boat called ‘Toufan- 1.’ Iranian state news agency IRNA reported that ‘Toufan-1 “carries a 150 kg warhead and has a speed of 35 nautical miles per hour” and that “high speed and ability in manoeuvring and stealth” are its key characteristics. The Houthis have used similar vessels in the past to attack merchant ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Yemen: Houthis target ship in Haifa with Islamic Resistance
On 26 June, the Houthi’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said that the group carried out a drone attack on the Portuguese-flagged container ship, MSC Manzanillo, in Israel’s Haifa port. This was carried out as part of a joint military operation with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said they were unaware of such an incident. 

Sudan: UNICEF says Sudan is one of the worst places for children
On 24 June, the Executive Director of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), Catherine Russel, stated that Sudan was one of the world’s worst places for children. Russel added that Sudan had the largest number of displaced children worldwide. According to the agency, nine million children do not receive food; four million face acute malnutrition, and five million are without schooling. Russel said that the crisis was “100% man made.” The ongoing civil war between Sudan’s military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has destroyed Sudan’s food economy and displaced thousands.

Niger: Armed groups attack in Tillaberi
On 26 June, Al Jazeera quoted Niger's Ministry of Defence that 20 soldiers and one civilian were killed by armed groups in the Tillaberi region in western Niger. The ministry added that the attack was carried out by a coalition of armed groups, without referring to any. The region borders Mali and Burkina Faso, where armed groups linked to IS and al-Qaeda have been carrying out a series of attacks since 2014. 

Europe and The Americas
Ukraine: Air Force shot down 86 per cent of Russian drones launched since January 2024
On 25 June, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that it shot down about 86 per cent of the 2,277 Shahed attack drones launched by Russia in 2024. The Ukrainian defence forces’ mobile fire groups were instrumental in this mission. Their systems were modified with night vision devices, thermal imagers, optics, laser pointers, searchlights, electronic warfare equipment, software, and off-road vehicles. This helped the Ukrainian soldiers to destroy the Russian targets more efficiently. 

Russia: Sevastopol governor declares emergency following Ukrainian attacks in Crimea
On 24 June, TASS reported on the declaration of a region-wide emergency in Sevastopol following the Ukrainian attacks in Crimea on 23 June. The governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, issued instructions “to declare a state emergency in the city of Sevastopol until further notice.” Ukraine used ATACMS tactical missiles equipped with cluster munitions to attack civilian infrastructure. Although four missiles were taken down, a fifth exploded over the city, killing four people, including two children and injuring 150 others. The Russian Investigative Committee launched a criminal probe into the attack. 

Haiti: Kenyan police troops arrive as part of UN-backed mission
On 25 June, several hundred Kenyan officers arrived in Haiti as part of a larger Kenya-led UN-backed multinational mission to quell the violence resulting from clashes between armed gangs. US President Joe Biden expressed gratitude to “all the countries that have pledged personnel and financial support to this mission,” noting that the US contributed USD 360 million. On the same day, Haiti’s Prime Minister Garry Conille praised the effort, noting that Haiti is “going through very difficult times” and that the government is “going to start working little by little to retake the country” from the gangs that have occupied around 80 per cent of the capital Port-au-Prince. The security adviser to Kenya’s President William Ruto, Monica Juma, detailed that the forces would serve as “agents of peace, of stability, of hope.”

Bolivia: President Arce thwarts coup attempt
On 26 June, Bolivian troops led by army general commander Juan Jose Zuniga stormed the presidential palace and used a tank to slam the palace doors, amidst political and economic challenges facing the country. Within hours, Bolivia’s President Luis Arce got the soldiers to withdraw and hailed this as a victory for Bolivia’s democracy. Arce said to Zuniga and the group of soldiers in a palace hallway: “I am your captain, and I order you to withdraw your soldiers, and I will not allow this insubordination.” Zuniga’s actions resulted in widespread international condemnation. Arve addressed citizens who took to the streets against the alleged coup attempt: “Many thanks to the Bolivian people. Long live democracy.” Zuniga, who said that he aimed to “restore democracy” and “free political prisoners,” was later arrested. 

Colombia: Peace talks with rebel group 
On 24 June, Colombia launched peace talks with the Second Marquetalia rebel group as part of an attempt by the administration of Colombian President Gustavo Petro to pacify rural areas of the country where violence has surged. Second Marquetalia’s lead negotiator Walter Mendoza stated: “We want to participate in politics without resorting to the use of weapons. The condition for that will be for the government to fulfil its side of the accords.” The group is one of Colombia’s smaller outfits, with around 2,000 fighters. However, the government’s negotiations with them are controversial because the group is led by members of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which signed the 2016 peace deal but took up arms again.

About the authors
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD Scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Akhil Ajith and Vetriselvi Baskaran are Research Assistants at NIAS. Shilpa Joseph, Ayan Datta, Ken B Varghese, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Mugdha Chaturvedi are Research Interns at NIAS.

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Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan