CWA # 1804
Conflict Weekly
Congo: M23 Violence and Failed Peace Efforts in Eastern DRC
Conflict Weekly #299, 18 September 2025, Vol 6, No. 38
|
IPRI Team
18 September 2025
|
Photo Source: AP Photo
Conflict Weekly #299, 18 September 2025, Vol 6, No. 38
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Anu Maria Joseph
DR Congo: M23 reorganising for a renewed offensive; no sign of peace
Anu Maria Joseph
In the news
On 18 September, Reuters and Africanews reported that the Congolese army and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels are remobilising troops and reinforcing their military positions in North and South Kivu provinces. The new development came after the warring sides accused each other of violating the terms of the US and Qatari-led peace and ceasefire accords.
On 14 September, M23 rebels paraded over 7,000 recruits in Goma. The group said that the new recruits included surrendered Congolese soldiers.
On the same day, Amnesty International representative, Christian Rumu, stated: "We are still concerned about forced recruitment that we have documented since the takeover of the M23 in North Kivu and South Kivu. This might affect the peaceful process that both the DRC, Rwanda, and M23 are trying to reach through the Doha and Washington processes."
Issues at large
First, M23's motivations to continue violence. M23, a Tutsi-led and Rwanda-backed rebel group, seized and has been in control of Goma and Bukavu, the regional capitals of North and South Kivu, since January 2025. The group currently has nearly 14,000 troops across eastern DRC, according to the UN. M23 has security and economic motivations in the region. The security objective is to protect the minority ethnic Tutsis, whether it's in Rwanda, DRC or Uganda, and fight against their historical rivals—the Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) armed group in DRC. The group has been forcefully recruiting from the captured regions. The economic objective is to control the eastern DRC's vast mineral towns, illicit mineral trade and network. With an advantage in achieving both objectives, the group seem to have no interest in adhering to any peace efforts.
Second, the Doha and Washington peace accords and their limitations. Over the past two months, the US and Qatar have mediated two important deals between the warring parties: a US-led peace deal between Rwanda and DRC and a Qatari-led direct ceasefire deal between DRC and M23. The US-led peace deal conveyed an impression of a return to peace in the DRC. However, the deal rarely discussed a resolution; rather brought a political settlement between Rwanda and DRC, ignoring the underlying issues behind the conflict. Moreover, the deal was criticised for being transactional after the US linked its economic interests. The Qatari-led ceasefire was supposed to set the stage for comprehensive peace talks between the DRC and M23 rebels. According to the deal, M23 agreed to withdraw from the regions it seized, and the DRC agreed to release M23 prisoners. However, the violence resumed immediately after DRC and M23 failed to adhere to the terms of the agreement.
Third, mistrust between DRC and Rwanda. The US-led peace deal was built on a fragile trust between the DRC and Rwanda. The conflict in eastern DRC involves a decades-long hostilities between Rwanda and DRC over historical grievances and rivalries, ethnic issues, the Rwandan genocide, two Congo wars, and territorial disputes. For DRC, more than resolving the conflict, the deal meant the entry of the US and an end to the illicit mineral trade in the region. For Rwanda, M23 has been a major source of accessing mineral reserves in eastern DRC. Still, Kigali caved into the international pressure to sign the deal, calculatedly that it can always adopt a strategy of denying its support to M23, thereby protecting its strategic ambiguity.
In perspective
The remobilisation and recruitment imply that the region shall anticipate another wave of violence soon. Many fear that M23 is aiming for Kinshasa and the fall of the government. Immediate developments following the peace deal and the ceasefire deal imply that neither side had the intention to comply with any commitments of the deals. There is no sign of peace. Once again, a rushed and exclusive peace deal and ceasefire have failed, and added to the list of failed peace efforts in eastern DRC. While underlying issues remain ignored, peace efforts turn transactional, and commitment and compliance remain elusive, a sustainable peace in eastern DRC appears to be challenging.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, Rizwana Banu and Vaihali Chittrothu
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: NASA blocks Chinese citizens from visiting its facilities
On 11 September, NASA banned Chinese nationals carrying US visas from visiting its facilities and networks. This move was made in light of concerns regarding China's progress in space technology. NASA has restricted the employment of Chinese citizens. However, SOEs and firms have been able to engage as contractors and students. NASA’s spokesperson Bethany Stevens informed that an internal action has been taken and stated: “Restricting physical and cybersecurity access to our facilities, materials, and network to ensure the security of our work.” This year, Chinese citizens additionally lost physical and virtual access to NASA data.
The Philippines: Protests against China’s Huangyan Dao nature reserve plan
On 11 September, China rejected the Philippines' protest against China’s plan to establish a natural reserve at Huangyan Dao. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Lin Jian, said: “The move is fully within China's sovereignty and aims to protect the island's ecological environment and biodiversity, in line with both domestic and international law.” He added that “it reflects China's role as a responsible country committed to sustainable development.” He also stressed that the territory has long been settled through international treaties. They called on the Philippines to give away false claims and to stop provocation and infringements.
North Korea: Most restrictive country in the world, says UN report
On 12 September, a UN human rights report stated that repression and government surveillance on citizens in North Korea have severely deepened, making it the most restrictive country in the world. Heightened surveillance, expanded use of forced labour, and frequent executions worsen the situation. A first such landmark report had been released in 2014, revealing that North Korea had committed crimes against humanity. The latest report is based on the accounts of over 300 witnesses and victims who fled the country and reported a further erosion of freedom since 2015. "Under laws, policies and practices introduced since 2015, citizens have been subjected to increased surveillance and control in all parts of life," says the report. Pyongyang has rejected a UN Human Rights resolution that authorised the report.
Australia: Sign a defence communique with Papua New Guinea
On 17 September, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape signed a defence communique. According to this, a mutual defence treaty will be signed by the following cabinets of both countries. While stating the mutual defence alliance is of national interest, Marape said: "I made a conscious choice that Australia remains our security partner of choice."
South Asia
Nepal: President appoints Chief Justice Sushila Karki as interim prime minister; schedules election for 5 March
On 13 September, Nepal's President Ramchandra Paudel's office "dissolved the House of Representatives" and stated that new elections will be held on 5 March, adding that the country will be led by former Chief Justice Sushila Karki. Her appointment is the result of two days of intense negotiation between the President, Army Chief Ashok Raj Sigdel and protest leaders. Her appointment is in the background of former Prime Minister KP Oli's resignation, triggered by Gen-Z protest on social media ban.
Afghanistan: UNHCR closes aid centres for Afghan returnees, citing the Taliban’s ban on female workers
On 12 September, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Representative to Afghanistan, Arafat Jamal, said that the UNHCR on 9 September had terminated operations at eight centres in Afghanistan because of the Taliban’s ban on female workers. These centres provided cash and other types of support to Afghan returnees. Jamal emphasised that this step “was an operational decision” and is not meant to “punish anyone or to make a statement.” He acknowledged that this decision has created “an enormous amount of suffering” but simply proves that the UNHCR cannot function “without female workers in certain circumstances.” This development comes after over one million Afghan refugees from Pakistan have been driven back to their home against their will, from August to September this year, under Pakistan’s Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan (IFRP). Jamal said that the UNHCR continues to negotiate with the Taliban on this issue, hoping to reopen the centres.
The Middle East and Africa
Iran: US imposes new sanctions against Iranian nationals and companies
On 16 September, Al Jazeera reported that the US has imposed fresh sanctions against individuals and entities involved in illicit fund transfers that support Iran’s military activities. Among those sanctioned are Iranian nationals and companies based in Hong Kong and the UAE. The US Department of the Treasury revealed that these fund transfers, through “shadow banking networks,” circumvent the sanctions to the advantage of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian Ministry of Defence. The latest sanctions are a part of US President Donald Trump’s larger goal of reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero.
Syria: Foreign Minister al Shibani presents a new plan for Suwayda
On 16 September, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani announced a new plan for restoring security in the province of Suwayda after a meeting with his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi and US Syria’s envoy Tom Barrack in Damascus. This new plan includes facilitating the return of those displaced (around 160,000) by the sectarian violence that had broken out in the province on 13 July between the Druze community and the Bedouin tribes. The plan also proposes an internal reconciliation process. Safadi said: “We want Syria to stabilise, recover and rebuild after years of destruction and suffering, and to start practical steps toward a brighter future for all Syrians.”
Qatar: Arab League-OIC emergency summit in Doha
On 15 September, around 60 countries, members of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), gathered in Doha for an emergency summit to mull a response to Israel’s earlier bombing of the Qatari capital. The leaders expressed their solidarity with Qatar and denounced the attack as “cowardly.” In his opening statement, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani termed the bombing as “blatant, treacherous, and cowardly” and accused Israel of not having any “genuine interest in peace” and “thwarting negotiations.” Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) vowed to “activate a joint defence mechanism,” the details of which remain unclear. The GCC revealed that talks are ongoing to develop “Gulf deterrent capabilities.”
Yemen: US imposes fresh sanctions against the Houthis
On 11 September, Al Jazeera reported that the US has imposed fresh sanctions against the Houthis, including 32 individuals and entities, and four vessels. The US Treasury Department revealed that the sanctions are aimed at curbing “fundraising, smuggling and attack operations” by the Houthis. Among those sanctioned are Houthi-affiliated shipping companies, petroleum smugglers and China-based companies that have allegedly aided the transportation of “military-grade components” to the Houthis. Undersecretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence, John K Hurley, highlighted that the group continues “to threaten US personnel and assets in the Red Sea, attack our allies in the region and undermine international maritime security in coordination with the Iranian regime.”
The War in Gaza: UNGA endorses declaration towards a two-state solution; calls for an immediate end to the war
On 12 September, the United Nations General Assembly endorsed a declaration outlining "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" toward a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. The seven-page declaration emerged from a July 2025 UN conference hosted by Saudi Arabia and France, boycotted by Israel and the US. The resolution passed with 142 votes in favour, ten against, and 12 abstentions. It comes ahead of the UNGA meeting on 22 September, where the UK, France, Canada, Australia and Belgium are expected to recognise Palestine. The declaration condemned Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s actions in Gaza, including civilian casualties, siege, and starvation, "which have resulted in a devastating humanitarian catastrophe and protection crisis." It called for an immediate end to the war and supported a temporary UNSC-mandated stabilisation mission. The declaration called on Israel to "issue a clear public commitment to the two-state solution, including a sovereign and viable Palestinian State." The US called the vote a “misguided and ill-timed publicity stunt," while Israel’s UN ambassador stated: "You are not advancing peace; you are advancing terror."
Sudan: SAF captures Bara from the RSF
On 13 September, Sudanese armed forces and allied groups captured the city of Bara from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a significant shift in the ongoing conflict. Bara had served as a strategic stronghold for the RSF, enabling attacks on El Obeid and control over northern Kordofan. The city’s location along the Sadarat Highway added to its tactical importance. Despite reports of the RSF acquiring long-range drones earlier this year, the group suffered heavy losses in the battle. The SAF described the operation as a decisive effort to reclaim territory from RSF control.
Sudan: The US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt call for a humanitarian truce and an immediate, permanent ceasefire
On 13 September, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt proposed a three-month humanitarian truce in Sudan, followed by a permanent ceasefire and a nine-month transitional process to establish civilian-led governance. The statement said: "There is no viable military solution to the conflict, and the status quo creates unacceptable suffering and risks to peace and security." On 12 September US imposed sanctions on Sudan's finance minister, Jibril Ibrahim and an Islamist militia Baraa Ibn-Malik Brigade, with an "aim to limit Islamist influence within Sudan and curtail Iran’s regional activities."
South Africa: Seven Chinese nationals jailed for human trafficking
On 11 September, seven Chinese nationals were sentenced to 20 years in prison by a South African court for human trafficking and kidnapping. The group smuggled 91 Malawians, including 37 children, into the country and forced them to work in harsh conditions at a Johannesburg factory. Workers endured long hours, poor pay, and unsafe environments, with some smuggled in shipping containers. The factory, named Beautiful City, violated multiple labour laws. Officials welcomed the verdict, calling it a step forward in combating human trafficking.
Ghana: Accra receives 14 deportees from the US
On 11 September, Ghana agreed to accept West African nationals deported from the US. Fourteen deportees have arrived in Ghana, and President John Dramani Mahama stated that the government will assist in their return to their home countries. The deportations are part of the Trump administration's immigration policy of deporting illegal migrants to "third-countries" other than their countries of origin, to deter immigration. In July, Eswatini received five deportees and South Sudan eight. In August, Rwanda, after agreeing to accept up to 250 deportees, received seven migrants. Mahama did not specify a cap on how many deportees Ghana would accept. He stated that Ghana was approached by the US on accepting deportees, and he “agreed with them that West African nationals were acceptable because all our fellow West Africans don't need a visa to come to our country.”
Africa: DR Congo in need of support as Ebola cases rise, says WHO official
On 12 September, as DR Congo faces its first Ebola outbreak in three years, a WHO official said: "We have the expertise, DRC has the expertise, but we need to be able to get the people and supplies into place and we need to be able to pay for the operations." This is the 16th outbreak and first in Kasai province since 2008. He mentioned that the limited capacity and lack of a new treatment facility may result in an expanded outbreak. Additionally, WHO plans to request 40,000-50,000 Ebola vaccine doses for the campaign.
DR Congo: 193 people die in two boat accidents
On 13 September, two separate boat accidents in Equateur province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, resulted in at least 193 fatalities. The first incident occurred on Wednesday in Basankusu territory, where a motorised boat capsized, killing at least 86 people, mostly students. The second accident took place on Thursday in Lukolela territory, where a whaleboat carrying nearly 500 passengers caught fire and capsized, leaving 107 dead and 146 missing. Authorities cited improper loading and night navigation as contributing factors. Rescue operations are ongoing, with over 200 survivors recovered so far.
DR Congo: ADF attacks leave 89 dead in Eastern Congo
On 11 September, according to the officials, at least 89 civilians were killed in two separate attacks in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) targeted a funeral in Nyoto and launched another assault in Beni, both in North Kivu province. The Congolese and Ugandan militaries have been conducting joint operations against the ADF, which pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in 2019. Authorities say several militants have been neutralised and hostages freed.
Niger: 127 civilians executed by jihadists since March, report by Human Rights Watch
On 11 September, a report by Human Rights Watch stated that nearly 130 civilians were executed by Islamist insurgents in Niger since March. The attacks, including a mass killing of over 70 worshippers at a mosque in Tillabéri region, were blamed on Islamic State-linked ADF fighters. Witnesses described brutal scenes and accused the army of failing to respond to warnings. HRW says jihadist groups have destroyed schools and religious sites, imposing strict controls on civilians.
Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: Sweden to allocate USD 70 million in military assistance to Ukraine
On 11 September, Sweden's Defence Minister Pal Jonson stated that USD 70 million will be budgeted for military support to Ukraine. He said: "We have immediately been in contact with Poland's defence minister, where we have said we are willing to make available resources if Poland identifies an interest in this." He expressed "solidarity with Poland." The allocation of the budget will be managed by Sweden's defence material agency.
Russia and Belarus: Conduct joint military exercises Zapad 2025
On 16 September, RT reported on Russia and Belarus conducting joint military exercises Zapad 2025. According to Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, the exercise included rehearsals for launching Russia's tactical nuclear weapons and Oreshnik hypersonic missile. 7,000 troops took part from Belarus, while Russia claimed involvement of 100,000 troops across both countries. Putin said that the drills aimed to exercise repelling potential threats against the joint defence between Russia and Belarus. The exercise is held every four years to showcase its military capacity.
Ukraine: Russian strikes kill and injure several across Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv regions
On 16 September, Ukrainian officials reported on Russia’s overnight strikes killing at least two and injuring several across multiple Ukrainian cities. According to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, one died in Zaporizhzhia in fires, while in the southern Mykolaiv region, one was killed and two were injured. Over 100 drones and about 150 glide bombs were observed to be launched by Russia across central, southern, and eastern Ukraine. Zelenskyy condemned the attacks as “aerial terror” and called for a multi-layered air defence system.
Ukraine: DIU claims attacks on Russian oil facilities
On 15 September, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (DIU) claimed destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 surface-to-air missile system in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region. The system is estimated to be valued at USD 40 to USD 50 million. It was capable of targeting threats from the air, sea, and land. On the same day, Ukraine claimed responsibility for targeting the Kirishi oil refinery, a major facility located southeast of St Petersburg. On 13 September, a similar attack was reported on the Bashneft facility in Russia's Bashkortostan region. There were no casualties reported.
Spain: Records its highest temperature since 1961
On 16 September, Euronews reported on Spain witnessing its hottest summer on record in 2025, with an average temperature of 24.2 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous high of 24.1 degrees Celsius set in 2022. According to the national meteorological agency AEMET, Ruben del Campo, an AEMET spokesperson, confirmed that this marks the highest summer temperature recorded since 1961, and warned of a continuity of the trend. The summer of 2025 saw a series of heatwaves, and extreme temperatures reaching 46 degrees Celsius in parts of the southwest. Until now, over 1,100 people have died from heatwaves.
About the authors
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. Swati Sood is an undergraduate student at Vivekananda College, University of Delhi. Vaihali Chittrothu is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, St Ann's College for Women, Hyderabad.
