Conflict Weekly 300th Issue

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CWA # 1820
Conflict Weekly 300th Issue
Ethiopia: GERD inauguration amid Egypt-Sudan resistance
Africa
Conflict Weekly 300, 25 September 2025, Vol 6, No. 38

  Santhiya M
25 September 2025

In the news
On 9 September, Ethiopia officially inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, situated on the Blue Nile. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated that the USD five billion project is expected to generate more than 5,000 megawatts of power for the region and export the surplus electricity.
Abiy stated: “To our brothers, Ethiopia built the dam to prosper, to electrify the entire region and to change the history of black people.” He hailed it as a symbol of national self-reliance and a monumental achievement in the country’s development. He claimed GERD to be a “shared opportunity” for the region.

On the same day, Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Badr Ahmed, raised a complaint to the UNSC: "The dam remains a one-sided measure that violates international law and norms, even as Ethiopia tried to give it an illusory cover of legitimacy.”

On 3 September, Egypt and Sudan released a joint statement describing the dam as a continuous threat to the stability of the Eastern Nile Basin and would bring serious repercussions for downstream countries.

Issues at large
First, a historical background to the dispute. Egypt and Sudan rely on colonial-era agreements, especially the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Agreement and the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, to claim the majority of the Nile’s water flow and the right to veto upstream projects. Ethiopia is an upstream country, but was not included in these agreements. Hence, Ethiopia rejects these agreements as illegitimate and regards GERD as a project, exercising sovereignty over its natural resources.

Second, a background to the GERD tensions. Ethiopia initiated the dam's construction in 2011 to generate electricity for domestic use and cater to the energy needs of neighbouring countries. The project became a point of contention when downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, raised existential threats against Ethiopia's unilateral decision to build the dam. Egypt relies on the Nile for over 90 per cent of its freshwater, agricultural irrigation needs, industrial water needs, and drinking water. The reduction in flow or delayed filling of the dam would be a direct threat to survival and food security. For Sudan, the primary concern is the safety of its dams, notably the Roseries Dam, which is located downstream from the GERD. The different release of water from the GERD would affect Sudan’s dam. Meanwhile, Ethiopia views GERD as a transformative project to address chronic energy shortages, create jobs, reduce poverty, and become a regional power exporter. The downstream countries claimed that any unprecedented change in the Nile’s flow could lead to issues of water shortage, food insecurity and environmental degradation. 

Third, the previously failed negotiations. The negotiations began in 2012 and involved trilateral talks, US-brokered negotiations and discussions led by the AU. The AU-initiated talks were repeatedly stalled. The latest negotiations took place in 2023 at Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa. This round of negotiations took place after a two-year hiatus, following the previously failed talks held in Kinshasa in 2021. The Addis Ababa talk was also stalled, with no legally binding agreement reached. The Egyptian government claim that the negotiations fail because of Ethiopia’s defiance in accepting any technical or legal solutions that promote and secure the interests of all three countries. 

Fourth, the role of external actors. US President Donald Trump has expressed interest in GERD and the regional dispute since 2020. In July, Trump said that the GERD is “closing up water going to the Nile” and that the issue should be resolved quickly. In 2020, the US temporarily cut USD 300 million in aid when Ethiopia withdrew from the negotiations. China is involved in financing the dam. In 2023, CGTN Africa reported that Ethiopian Electric Power sought a USD 40 million contract with China Gezhouba Group Co., Ltd for the dam. The UAE has been mediating the latest efforts, while Saudi Arabia pledged support to Egypt and Sudan in “preserving their legitimate water rights” and solving the issue under international law. 

In perspective
As Ethiopia continues to recover from the Tigray conflict that left thousands dead and millions displaced, GERD is leveraged as a powerful symbol of national pride and unity. The largest hydroelectric dam in Africa also portrays Ethiopia as a rising power and a dominant actor in the region. With GERD becoming operational, Ethiopia can regulate the water flow, control reservoir filling, and determine water release schedules. This enhances the bargaining position in regional negotiations. External actors, with their geopolitical interests and biases, have added complexity to the dispute, exacerbating the persistent challenges in achieving a resolution.

Although Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan have engaged in years of negotiations and signed a Declaration of Principles in 2015, they have failed to reach a consensus on a comprehensive and legally enforceable treaty. The lack of a formal agreement and the divergent endgames of the countries have become the source of tension. However, Ethiopia views a legally binding agreement as an infringement of its sovereignty. It implies that an end to the dispute in the near future is highly unlikely.

About the author
Santhiya M is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

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