Conflict Weekly 300th Issue

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CWA # 1821
Conflict Weekly 300th Issue
Russia and the War in Ukraine: Unwilling to Compromise
Europe
Conflict Weekly 300, 25 September 2025, Vol 6, No. 38

  Ramya B
25 September 2025

The Russian position today in the Ukraine situation is a mix of military posturing, diplomatic hostility toward European and US intervention, and a hardline attitude on a negotiated settlement. The Russian outlook is that it has clearly stated its military and geopolitical goals and are not willing to compromise. 

The Russian stand today can be understood by the following key takeaways.

1.    Military Escalation  
Moscow continues to engage in aerial assaults and drone strikes, which in recent times have violated the airspace of Poland and Romania. Military Escalation highlights the danger that the gruelling battle of attrition in Ukraine could escalate into a larger conflict between Russia and Europe. The Zapad-2025 high-profile military exercise of Russia with Belarus showcases Russian firepower on the doorstep of NATO, daring it to stay away from military action in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin, during the Time of Heroes program -which intends to train war veterans for service-  stated that more than 700,000 troops are actively stationed along the line of contact. Russia has substantially enlarged its standing army since last September to nearly 2.4 million, including 1.5 million active-duty personnel. Russian leaders, including Mr Putin and General Gerasimov, have claimed that they are advancing in several sectors, including the eastern and southern Ukraine regions

2.  Diplomatic Hostility
The diplomatic position of Russia remains uncompromising. Russia leverages Europe’s energy dependence despite sanctions. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had stated that peace negotiations are not easy to achieve, may take more time and negotiations and are currently “on pause”. President Putin had dismissed the remarks on the ceasefire timeline and showed more eagerness in pursuing ties with China, North Korea and India. Russian leaders are emboldened by what they perceive as the EU's hesitancy to fully isolate Moscow. Roughly 19% of the European Union’s gas imports still come from Russia, though this has been reduced from 45% before 2022. The agenda continues to be a thorn in US-EU relations as well. Reuters had stated that France, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands import LNG, while pipeline deliveries via TurkStream reach Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. United States and the EU, have responded with expanded sanctions targeting Russia’s financial, energy, and defence sectors, yet the Kremlin insists such a wave of restrictions primarily harms the very countries that initiate them. Presidential aide on international economic affairs, Kirill Dmitriev, said in June that the economies of EU countries have lost €1.3 to $1.5 trillion due to reductions of Russian gas supplies.

3. Propaganda and information warfare
Moscow continues to promote narratives that evoke selective historical memories in support of Russian interests and grievances against NATO expansion. The Russian state claims that it is the defender of ethnic rights, countering the fascist expansion in the Ukraine Region. Through propaganda, Russia frames its action as a necessary defensive move rather than aggression. They have refused to make the compromises proposed by the US to relinquish annexed territories. Russian friendship with China and North Korea aids in this propaganda to promote their collective dominance and peace on Russian terms. The Russian leader is confident in his assertion that the nation "is still far from a recession," as demonstrated by its labour market. Putin referenced the ‘historically low unemployment rates that have remained at approximately 2% recently’.  Russian enterprises have since redirected their activities towards alternative export markets, including China and India, and have devised innovative strategies to mitigate the impact.

4. Global Power Shifts 
Russia and Ukraine conflict has influenced global power shifts. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had explicitly stated that “Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Euro-Atlantic security,” urging NATO members to remain Cautious and render continued support for Ukraine. NATO’s direct assistance of $2 billion has been channelled to Ukraine. The ongoing conflict situation has strengthened the demands of Eastern European nations towards NATO. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, and all Eastern European nations have made security arrangements, military deals and increased defence budgets for national security. There is a growing military nexus between China, Russia and North Korea. Iran is supplying drones and missiles to Russia, while China is expanding its influence in Africa and Asia, replacing Russia’s traditional dominance in arms exports. Propaganda and Cyber operations may intensify to suit the realignment of global powers.

What Next?
The US pressure and interest in brokering a ceasefire could lead to more military actions and efforts on both sides trying to consolidate their individual position before the negotiations. The proposals during negotiations may include, from the Russian side, a demand for retaining occupied territories, delayed NATO membership for Ukraine and or a creation of a demilitarised buffer zone. In all probability, Russia may continue this prolonged War of Attrition well into 2026 as it destabilises Eastern Europe while providing Russia with strategic opportunities. It creates humanitarian crises, war casualties and human rights violations of many forms. A miscalculation on the part of the US and Russian leadership may escalate into a direct NATO-Russia confrontation
 
By moving provocations into NATO airspace and doing joint drills with Belarus, Moscow is signalling that the war's borders are not set in stone and that European countries might get more involved if they send troops or back Kyiv more strongly.In short, Russia's current position is characterised by military escalation, diplomatic rigidity, forceful deterrence of Western involvement, and a constant campaign of propaganda. Moscow is still dedicated to its maximalist territorial goals and wants to change the way security works in the region so that it can maintain its dominance. These dynamics indicate to politicians and analysts a little probability of immediate de-escalation or compromise, while the potential for the war to expand remains.

About the author
Ramya B is Associate Professor, Dept of History, Kristu Jayanti Deemed to be University, Bengaluru

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