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CWA # 1834
CW Note
Sudan: The RSF's siege and the Fall of el-Fasher

  Anu Maria Joseph
31 October 2025

In the news
On 27 October, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced that they had taken control of the city of el-Fasher in Darfur. The group stated that it seized el-Fasher "from the grip of mercenaries and militias allied with the terrorist army." 

On 28 October, the BBC reported that the RSF killed hundreds of civilians, with the UN confirming "summary executions" with “indications of ethnic motivations for killings." According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), around 450 civilians have been killed in the recent escalation of the civil war. 

On 28 October, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced the withdrawal of troops from el-Fasher, citing "the systemic destruction, and the systemic killing of civilians." He added that the army hoped to "spare the citizens and the rest of the city from destruction." He said: “We are determined to avenge what happened to our people in el-Fasher. We, as the Sudanese people, will hold these criminals accountable.”

Issues at large
First, the SAF, RSF and the state of Sudan’s civil war. The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has crossed two and a half years. According to the UN, it has killed more than 40,000 and displaced 12 million people. Since January 2025, the war has seen significant geographic escalations and shifts. In March 2025, the SAF regained complete control of Sudan’s capital Khartoum; the city had been under the RSF siege since the beginning of the war. The SAF also managed to regain control of the state of Gezira, which it had lost to the RSF in 2023. In July, with the majority of western Darfur and Kordofan states under its control, the RSF announced the establishment of a parallel government in opposition to the UN-recognised SAF government. The SAF is currently in control of Eastern and Northern Sudan, with Port Sudan as its headquarters. Since then, the battle for el-Fasher has been ongoing, which was the only region in Darfur under SAF's control. Until 2024, there were more than ten rounds of ceasefire efforts led by the US and Saudi Arabia with the support of the UN, the AU and other regional groups. However, all of them failed, amidst abundant weapon supplies from allied countries, supplemented by a lack of commitment and compliance from the warring sides. 

Second, the significance of el-Fasher and its fall. Since July, the RSF has surrounded and been carrying out frequent offensives in el-Fasher. The city has strategic and geographic importance for the RSF. Geographically, El-Fasher has been the only city in Darfur that is under the SAF control, a final barrier for the RSF in controlling the western states and thereby consolidating its parallel government. The city is strategically located at an international crossroads between Chad, Egypt and Libya. This is important for the RSF, as it facilitates easier military and logistical supplies, as well as trade routes for smuggling mineral deposits from the Darfur and Kordofan regions. Additionally, the city is connected to the capital, Khartoum, and other major cities across the country. 

Third, the huge human cost of the civil war. In 2024, the UN described the situation in Sudan as the worst humanitarian crisis of the century, worsened by war crimes, sexual assaults, targeted killing of civilians, added with famines, floods and diseases. Both the RSF and SAF have been accused of carrying out atrocities against civilians. The UN has verified ethnically targeted atrocities in the current escalation. It says, around 250,000 people are trapped in el-Fasher, many from non-Arab communities. According to the International Organisation of Migration (IOM), more than 26,000 people fled el-Fasher as of 28 October out of fear of the RSF atrocities. 

In perspective
The fall of el Fasher is likely to redefine the military, political and humanitarian trajectory of the civil war. Militarily, it is a major setback for the SAF, which has lost its long-standing control over the city and, consequently, the Darfur region. The SAF's withdrawal from the city highlights its critical loss of strategic capacity, increasing the risks of further RSF offensives that will push the SAF to the east. Politically, with all five Darfur states under the RSF, the group has made significant progress towards consolidating a parallel government, with el-Fasher serving as the logistical and strategic centre. However, the humanitarian cost implies that the RSF also aims to dismantle civilian resistance through force, particularly targeting non-Arabs. This position also suggests that the RSF in controlled areas will likely adopt an authoritarian military governance, implying a further humanitarian crisis to be anticipated.

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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