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CWA # 1835
The World This Week
Five Major Developments

  GP Team
26 October 2025

The World This Week #331 & 332 Vol 7, No 40 & 41, 26 Oct 2025
 

Five Major Developments This Week:
China's 15th Five-Year Plan, Japan's New PM, Thailand-Cambodia Agreement, The War in Ukraine, and the US-Canada Tariff Tensions
TWT Team

1. China adopts the 15th Five-Year Plan; aims to achieve "significant advancements in high-quality development."
During 20-23 October, at the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, held in Beijing, China, adopted recommendations by the CPC Central Committee for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan covering 2026-30. According to an official statement: "For the next five years, achieving significant advancements in high-quality development is a key objective set by the CPC Central Committee. Thursday's communique emphasized that China should build a modernized industrial system and reinforce the foundations of the real economy." The statement also has made the following observation on the previous plan: "During the outgoing 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), China has contributed about 30 percent to global economic expansion. Its goods and services imports totaled over 20 trillion yuan (about 2.82 trillion US dollars) in 2024, creating substantial market opportunities for international businesses." 

According to a statement by Ambassador Xie Feng, "The Central Committee also set the following major objectives for the period: significant achievements in high-quality development; substantial improvements in scientific and technological self-reliance and strength; fresh breakthroughs in further deepening reform comprehensively; notable cultural and ethical progress across society; further improvements in quality of life; major new strides in advancing the Beautiful China Initiative; and further advances in strengthening the national security shield."

2. Japan has a new Prime Minister: Internal and External Challenges for the first woman PM
On 21 October, Sanae Takaichi became the first woman to serve as Prime Minister of Japan. After being elected as an independent candidate to the House of Representatives in 1993, she joined the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 1996. She served as a minister under Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Fumio Kishida. She is considered a conservative with a belief in Japan's security, defence, and economic self-reliance.

The new PM is expected to address domestic and external challenges facing Japan. For her, the main internal challenge is strengthening the LDP, the party she belongs to. Outside strengthening her party's position in Parliament, she also has to address the stagnating economy, the cost of living, and an ageing population. Externally, her immediate challenges come from North Korea and China. She also has to stabilize Japan's relations with President Trump. 

3. The Stalemate in the Ukraine War: New US Sanctions, Meeting in London, and a new Nuclear-Capable Cruise Missile
During the week, there was an all-round stalemate. The proposed meeting between President Trump and President Putin remains cancelled. Worse, President Trump announced additional sanctions on Russia. On 22 October, the US announced sanctions against two of Russia's largest oil firms, Rosneft Oil Company and Lukoil. On 24 October, Ukraine's President Zelenskyy visited the UK to meet with the European leaders. The UK Prime Minister, Starmer, underlined the need for Europe to support Ukraine with air defence and long-range missile systems. The meeting in London also discussed ways and means to use the frozen Russian assets. 

In response to the above, President Putin took a tough stand; On 26 October, he announced testing a cruise missile, which is nuclear-capable and can travel a long distance. According to a Reuters report quoting Russia's chief of general staff, "the missile travelled 14,000 km (8,700 miles) and was in the air for about 15 hours," and using nuclear power, it "could defeat any missile defence and has an unlimited range."

4. Southeast Asia: Thailand and Cambodia sign a major agreement in the presence of President Trump
On 26 October, the two Prime Ministers of Thailand and Cambodia signed a major agreement at Kuala Lumpur during the 47th ASEAN Summit. The signing took place in the presence of the US President Trump. A major aspect of the agreement is to de-escalate the border conflict, which flared in July 2025 between the two countries. According to the agreement, both countries have agreed to observe the ceasefire, withdraw heavy weapons from the border, release prisoners, and begin demining. 

In July 2025, military clashes broke out between Thailand and Cambodia around the Preah Vihar region on the border. Despite initial ASEAN efforts to broker a ceasefire, tensions between the two countries persisted. Regional efforts in August resulted in a ceasefire, but failed to hold. The two countries sparred over creating a buffer zone and the complete withdrawal of troops as essential conditions for the ceasefire. Later, the US also entered into negotiations with the two countries along with ASEAN, resulting in the final signing on 26 October.

Both countries have been fighting over the region for decades since the 1900s over who Preah Vihar and its surrounding areas belong to. Despite an ICJ ruling in 1962, the two countries continued to fight. While the ICJ ruling says the temple belongs to Cambodia, Thailand continues to dispute the region around it.

5. Canada and the US: New tensions, as President Trump announces the termination of trade negotiations
On 24 October, the US President Trump made a sudden announcement terminating the US-Canada trade negotiation. The announcement came after an advertisement by the government of Ontario, one of Canada's provinces. The advertisement selectively quotes former President Reagan to support Canada's current position on tariffs. According to the statement found in the advertisement, President Reagan says, "Free trade works when partners respect each other. Canada always has. The US should, too."

The above advertisement in Canada angered President Trump. In a statement, he said: "This is a foreign government trying to manipulate public opinion in the United States - and using one of our greatest presidents to do it." Besides terminating the trade negotiation, Trump has also threatened to impose an additional ten per cent hike on Canadian imports. 

The trade tensions between the US and Canada began in February 2025, when President Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on most goods from Canada, along with an additional 10 per cent on energy goods. In March, Canada retaliated with a 25 per cent tariff on American goods. In June, Canada's PM, Mark Carney, made a few concessions on the tariffs to restart stalled negotiations. In September, Canada removed some of its retaliatory tariffs on American goods. 

TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Aparna A Nair, Brighty Ann Sarah, Lekshmi MK, M Kejia, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Vaihali Chittrothu

CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
US and China: Preliminary Framework ready, leading to Trump-Xi Summit
On 26 October, after two days of talks in Malaysia, China and the US agreed on a preliminary framework for the descalation of trade tensions. While stating that "preliminary consensus reached," China's trade negotiator Li Chenggang described the US position as "tough" and added that China "firmly" defended its own interests and rights. China's Vice-Premier He Lifeng said, "The US and China bilateral trade relationship is win-win in nature, fundamentally," and "Stabilizing the relationship between both countries is in line with the interests of the people and matches the world's expectations." He added that the topics of discussion included export controls, reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs, the US Section 301 probe into Chinese shipbuilders, and a possible "expansion of bilateral trade".  US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, "We talked about extending the truce. We talked about rare earths, of course. ... And I think we're even to the spot where the leaders will have a productive meeting." After this fifth in person discussion since May on the sidelines of ASEAN summit, US President Trump said," "I think we're going to have a deal with China," while hinting possible meeting with China's President Xi in China and the US.

China and the US: China's Vice Premier and the US officials to hold discussions on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit
On 23 October, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice-Premier He Lifeng would meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss "important issues". The meeting would take place during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit from 24 October to 27 October. The Ministry of Commerce said in an official statement that the two countries would discuss important issues while keeping in mind the consensus reached during the leaders' previous phone calls. Previously, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump expected to reach an agreement with Chinese President XI Jinping on soybean trade, nuclear weapons and discuss with China on purchasing Russian oil and the Russia-Ukraine war. The meeting would be followed by the scheduled US-China Summit in South Korea between the US President and the Chinese President.

China and the US: President Trump to meet President Xi at the APEC Summit in South Korea
On 24 October, the White House announced that US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet in South Korea. President Trump was scheduled to travel to Asia, visiting three countries - Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea - where he would meet with President Xi Jinping. The White House didn't announce all the details of the meeting, and China hadn't confirmed it either. Reuters reported that the interim agreement could address tariffs on soybeans, fentanyl, Boeing aircraft, high-end computer chips, and rare earths, as well as trade in these areas. The US President planned to meet the Chinese President ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

Japan: Sanea Takaichi wins the Japan election, becomes the country's first woman prime minister
On 21 October, Japan elected Sanae Takaichi as its first female prime minister. She garnered 237 votes in the election in Parliament's 465-seat lower house and a similar vote in the upper house. The Liberal Democratic Party's new coalition deal with the Japan Innovation Party (also known as Ishin) stands pivotal to vote gain. Her win marked a shift to the right in Japan. In her opening remarks, she stated her aspiration to strengthen Japan's economy and defend Japan's national interest. She also stated her expected attendance in ASEAN-related summits in Malaysia and APEC in South Korea. On relations with the US, she said," The alliance with the United States is the cornerstone of Japan's foreign and security policy," and is planning "to meet President Trump at an early date to elevate the Japan-U.S. relationship to new heights."

US-South Korea Trade talks: To finalize a tariff deal 
On 22 October, Reuters reported that South Korea's Presidential Policy Secretary Kim Yong-beom and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan will reconvene for a meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The talks will aim to finalize a tariff deal which includes a USD 350 billion investment in the US. Secretary Kim stated that he seeks to reach an agreement that advances the interests of both countries and would not sign any partial deal to meet the deadline. As a result of previous negotiations, South Korean officials have stated that the US does not insist on an upfront payment for the investment in the form of equity, as this may destabilize the foreign exchange market.

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
President Trump's Southeast Asia Visit: Signs a series of deals on day one
On 26  October, on the sidelines of the 47th Asean Summit, US President Trump inked deals on trade and critical minerals with four Southeast Asian countries- Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam. With Malaysian and Cambodian counterparts, he signed reciprocal trade deals. Malaysia reduced the initial tariff from 25 per cent to 19 per cent in return for recognising American halal certification and for the supply of rare earths —a critical mineral used in advanced technological applications. Vietnam will now face a 20 per cent tariff on its exports to the US. A joint statement stated that the agreement "will provide both countries' exporters unprecedented access to each other's markets." In the upcoming week, both countries "will work to finalize the Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade, prepare the Agreement for signature, and undertake domestic formalities in advance of the Agreement entering into force." In a joint statement, Thailand said it would eliminate tariff barriers on approximately 99 per cent of goods and relax foreign ownership restrictions on US investment in its telecommunications sector. It added that it will purchase 80 US aircraft, totalling USD 18.8 billion, and energy goods, including liquefied natural gas and crude oil, for around USD 5.4 billion annually. These deals remove trade barriers and enhance preferential market access to various US goods.

Thailand and Cambodia: Two Prime Ministers sign a joint declaration and agree to withdraw heavy weapons from the border
On 26 October, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul signed a joint declaration at the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur. Both leaders committed to the withdrawal of heavy weapons from their shared border and the release of 18 detained Cambodian soldiers by Thailand. The signing was witnessed by US President Donald Trump and ASEAN Chair Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Before signing the declaration, President Trump said that "Now these gentlemen are about to sign what we're calling the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords, good name. Both countries are agreeing to cease all hostilities and work to build good, neighbourly relationships, which have already started." PM Hun Manet said that this signing marked a historic moment and added that "As we speak, I think our two commanders are discussing the possibility of the start of withdrawal, partial withdrawal, of the first phase of heavy weapons." Although President Trump called the declaration a "peace deal," Thailand's Foreign Ministry clarified on 25 October that the joint declaration was not a formal peace treaty but rather a statement to normalize relations and advance prior agreements on demining, anti-scam operations and border surveys. PM Anutin also reassured via Facebook that the deal involved no territorial concessions.

On 25 October, Reuters reported that Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said a meeting would be held with US President Trump before signing the ceasefire deal with Cambodia in Malaysia. In the meeting, they'll discuss economic issues, security and regional development. PM Anutin said, "Thailand has recently received several requests for bilateral meetings at the leadership level, which will lead to the development of cooperation in various areas, including the economy, security, and trade." In the intense border dispute, dozens were killed and 300,000 were temporarily displaced.

On 23 October, Thailand's Defence Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit stated that discussions between Thailand and Cambodia have made "meaningful progress" ahead of the broader ceasefire agreement scheduled for 26 October. Malaysia's Foreign Minister added that US President Donald Trump is expected to witness the signing on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur. The discussions follow deadly border clashes in July that killed at least 48 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Agreements already reached include the withdrawal of heavy weapons from border areas, joint demining operations, coordinated cybercrime countermeasures, a border survey between Thailand's Sa Kaeo province and Cambodia's Bantheay Meanchey, and the construction of fences in non-disputed areas. Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Tea Seiha noted that the deal reflects "a shared spirit of building mutual trust and confidence" and will enable the release of 18 Cambodian soldiers detained after the July fighting.

Cambodia and Thailand: Leaders sign "Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords" with the presence of US President Trump and pledge to withdraw heavy weapons and the release of prisoners
On 26 October, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul signed a joint declaration at the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur. Both leaders committed to the withdrawal of heavy weapons from their shared border and the release of 18 detained Cambodian soldiers by Thailand. The signing was witnessed by US President Donald Trump and ASEAN Chair Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Before signing the declaration, President Trump said, "Now these gentlemen are about to sign what we're calling the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords, good name. Both countries are agreeing to cease all hostilities and work to build good, neighbourly relationships, which have already started." PM Hun Manet said that this signing marked a historic moment and added that "As we speak, I think our two commanders are discussing the possibility of the start of withdrawal, partial withdrawal, of the first phase of heavy weapons." Although President Trump called the declaration a "peace deal," Thailand's Foreign Ministry clarified on 25 October that the joint declaration was not a formal peace treaty but rather a statement to normalize relations and advance prior agreements on demining, anti-scam operations and border surveys. PM Anutin also reassured via Facebook that the deal involved no territorial concessions.

East Timor: To join ASEAN as the 11th  member
On 23 October, Reuters reported that East Timor will gain accession as the 11th ASEAN member at the 26-28 October ASEAN leaders summit. The membership of this Southeast Asia's poorest country, with 1.4 million people, was confirmed by Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim last week. ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn said: "This platform will amplify East Timor's voice in international forums while securing its strategic interests through an established network of diplomatic and economic support." Stating that membership was a long-held dream, East Timor's President Jose Ramos-Horta said, "The road to ASEAN is more difficult than the road to heaven." According to the latest literature, this move will accelerate East Timor's economic integration and political legitimacy.

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
The War in Gaza: Mediators step up diplomacy; PM Netanyahu to meet Egyptian intelligence head; WFP says Gaza food deliveries far below target; US Vice President arrives in Israel 
On 21 October, reports said that mediators are intensifying the diplomatic efforts after the Gaza truce was shaken by renewed hostilities. Israel and Hamas recommit to the ceasefire following attacks that killed 28 in Gaza and two Israeli soldiers. US Vice President JD Vance arrives in Israel to support stabilization and advance President Trump's 20-point peace plan, which includes Hamas disarmament and a technocratic Palestinian committee. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets the head of Egyptian intelligence to discuss bilateral cooperation and reinforce the US-led peace initiative. Meanwhile, food flows into Gaza remain far below targets, with only 750 metric tons delivered daily against the World Food Programme's target of 2,000 tons. Limited operational crossings, including Kerem Shalom and Kissufim, restrict aid, leaving northern Gaza under severe shortages. Mediators, including Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, continue negotiations, while civilians face ongoing uncertainty, rationing, and the threat of renewed violence.

Syria: Minister of Economy and Industry expresses hope to Reuters on relief of US sanctions
On 21 October, Minister of Economy and Industry Mohammad Nidal al-Shaar told Reuters that US sanctions against Syria could be formally lifted in the coming months. While US President Donald Trump ordered most sanctions lifted in May after meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Caesar Syria Civil Protection Act of 2019 remains in effect under US law. Al-Shaar said on the sidelines of a London conference that Syria is lobbying to ensure the bill reaches the President for approval, after which the country would be "sanctions-free." He also indicated plans to introduce a new currency, likely early next year, after consultations with international experts and organizations.

The War in Gaza: PM Netanyahu expresses reservations on Turkish role, as US Vice President advances Trump peace plan 
On 22 October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signalled strong reservations about deploying Turkish security personnel to oversee the truce, jokingly remarking to US Vice President JD Vance that his views were predictably firm during discussions on post-war arrangements. Vice President Vance, touring a US-monitored military site, voiced cautious optimism for President Trump's 20-point plan, warning that Hamas disarmament could take years and threatening swift retaliation if obstructed, while noting Turkey's potential supportive role. The 12-day-old truce faces strains from aid shortages, border disputes, and sporadic violence, with over 87 Palestinians killed since its start.  In solidarity, Britain dispatched a handful of officers to a US-led stabilization task force in Israel, leveraging expertise without assuming command, as requested by the US. 

The War in Gaza: The US Vice President JD Vance criticizes the Israeli West Bank vote 
On 23 October, Israel's Parliament gave preliminary approval to a bill applying Israeli law to the occupied West Bank, effectively advancing annexation, a move decried by Palestinians as illegitimate and illegal under international law. A second bill targeting the Maale Adumim settlement also passed narrowly, despite opposition from Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. The votes coincided with US Vice President JD Vance's visit. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that such annexation efforts endanger President Trump's 20-point Gaza ceasefire plan, urging restraint to preserve fragile peace prospects. UAE officials echoed concerns, calling it a "red line" for Arab states. Simultaneously, the International Court of Justice ruled on 22 October that Israel, as an occupying power, must ensure the Gaza civilians' basic needs, food, water, shelter and facilitate UN aid, rejecting claims of Hamas infiltration in relief efforts. Israel dismissed the non-binding opinion. UN Secretary-General Guterres hailed it as vital for alleviating Gaza's humanitarian crisis.

The War in Gaza: 200 US troops stationed in Southern Israel to organize an international force and oversee the Gaza ceasefire and aid flow
On 24 October, Reuters reported that 200 US troops with expertise in transport, planning, security, and engineering had begun monitoring the Gaza ceasefire and organizing the international force at the Civil-Military Coordination Centre, a cargo hub in Southern Israel. The US military stated that it would also organize the flow of aid and security assistance to Gaza. The hub also hosts forces from Israel, Britain and Canada. On the same day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the international security force will have to be made up of countries that Israel is "comfortable with." Ruling out Hamas, he added that future governance of Gaza needs to be out among Israel and partner nations, and any potential role for the Palestinian Authority is yet to be determined.

The War in Gaza: The US appoints Ambassador Steven Fagin as the civilian lead for the Civil-Military Coordination Centre under Trump's peace plan
On 24 October, the US State Department announced the appointment of Steven Fagin, a Career Foreign Service Officer and the US Ambassador to Yemen, as the civilian lead for the Civil-Military Coordination Centre. The department stated, "Ambassador Steven Fagin will serve as the civilian lead of the Civil-Military Coordination Centre, which is supporting the implementation of the President's 20 Point Peace Plan for Gaza." It added that he will be working to implement the peace deal and facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid. This announcement came after Secretary of State Marc Rubio visited the centre and said more US diplomats would join the 200 US military personnel already deployed. One of the central missions of Trump's peace plan is to create an international force. The troops will be drawn from Egypt, Indonesia and Gulf countries as the US will not deploy its own troops inside Gaza. This has received criticism from sceptics who say that countries may be reluctant to commit troops unless Hamas disarms and progress toward a Palestinian state becomes viable. On the creation of the international force, Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, says, "It is going to be indispensable to prevent the conflict continuing," and adds that "It is doable, but it is going to be very difficult."

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The War in Ukraine: European leaders back President Trump's ceasefire call; Poland warns President Putin against airspace violation; Kremlin denies Trump-Putin summit date 
On 21 October, European leaders voiced support for US President Donald Trump's proposed ceasefire in Ukraine, while reaffirming their commitment to Kyiv's sovereignty and defensive support. The move highlights Europe's attempt to balance diplomacy with deterrence amid the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, Poland issued a strong warning to Russia, cautioning President Vladimir Putin against any violation of Polish airspace ahead of the expected Trump-Putin summit. The Kremlin, however, stated that no official dates have been set for the meeting. Meanwhile, Russian missile strikes severely damaged power infrastructure across northern Ukraine, cutting electricity and worsening humanitarian conditions as winter nears.

The War in Ukraine: Russia holds nuclear drills and prepares for the Trump summit; President Zelensky backs Trump's frontline freeze, as Ukraine questions EU loan conditions tied to frozen Russian assets 
On 22 October, according to media reports, Russia conducted overnight missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, launching 28 missiles and 405 drones, while holding nuclear readiness drills, targeting energy and military infrastructure. Ukraine intercepted most attacks, but some caused civilian casualties and power outages. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called US President Donald Trump's call to freeze the current frontlines a "good compromise" to reduce hostilities. Meanwhile, Ukraine resisted European Union conditions on a planned loan backed by frozen Russian assets, arguing the terms are unfavourable and could hinder recovery. Despite the ongoing conflict and delays, Russia says preparations for the Trump-Putin summit continue, maintaining that the meeting is still being planned and negotiated.

The War in Ukraine: The US to impose sanctions on Russian oil majors; EU vows long-term support for Kyiv at Brussels summit 
On 23 October, the United States imposed extensive sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, triggering a nearly 5 per cent surge in global oil prices. The move, part of Washington's broader pressure campaign over the Ukraine war, also sparked anxiety in India, one of Russia's biggest crude buyers, as it weighs the impact on discounted imports. Moscow dismissed the measures as ineffective but warned of "serious consequences" for global energy stability. Meanwhile, at the Brussels summit, European Union leaders reaffirmed their political and financial backing for Ukraine, approving a multiyear aid plan financed in part by profits from frozen Russian assets. They also endorsed a phase-out of Russian LNG imports by 2027, underscoring Europe's determination to reduce energy dependence on Moscow. Russia criticized the EU's decisions as "hostile acts" aimed at prolonging the conflict.

The War in Ukraine: The US impose sanctions on major Russian oil companies; President Zelensky visits the UK for talks on missiles
On 24 October, the United States announced sanctions on major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, citing their continued role in funding Moscow's war operations. The move raised global oil prices and prompted concern among energy-dependent countries such as India. Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United Kingdom and met Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss missile systems and defence cooperation. The visit comes as Kyiv seeks to strengthen military support ahead of winter offensives. However, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared that Pyongyang's military cooperation with Russia would "advance non-stop," highlighting the growing alignment between the two countries amid Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia claimed its forces had captured three more villages in eastern Ukraine, consolidating positions near the Donetsk front.

The War in Ukraine: The US mulls new sanctions on Russia, urges Europe to act first; UK pushes "stronger actions" during President Zelensky's visit; Russia's envoy claims talks are "quite close to a diplomatic solution" 
On 25 October, according to media reports, the United States is preparing a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting its banks and energy infrastructure to pressure Moscow into ending the war in Ukraine. Washington has urged European allies to coordinate these measures for greater impact. Meanwhile, in London, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for "strong measures" against Russia during Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit, including using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's defence and reconstruction. Amid these developments, Russia's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, said that Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv were "quite close to a diplomatic solution."

NORTH & SOUTH AMERICAS THIS WEEK
Brazil and the US: President Lula expresses willingness for talks with President Trump on tariffs and tensions with Venezuela
On 24 October, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stated he is open to discussing a wide range of issues with US President Donald Trump, including the 50 per cent tariffs Washington recently imposed on Brazilian goods and tensions involving Venezuela. Lula said, "There are no forbidden topics," and added, "We can talk about Gaza, Ukraine, Russia, Venezuela, critical materials, rare earths — anything." He also stated plans to argue that the 50 per cent tariffs were a "mistake" and highlighted the USD 410 billion US trade surplus with Brazil over 15 years. He also criticized US sanctions on Brazilian officials, including Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the trial of Bolsonaro's coup attempt. He welcomed talks with Trump on tensions with Venezuela while urging respect for international law. The White House has not yet confirmed a meeting between the two leaders.

US-Canada: President Trump halts trade talks with Ottawa over Reagan Ad controversy
On 24 October, US President Donald Trump abruptly ended all trade talks with Canada, citing a provocative Ontario government ad as the breaking point. The ad repurposed audio from former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs, which Trump called deceptive on social media. "Based on their outrageous conduct, all trade negotiations with Canada are hereby terminated," he posted on Truth Social. This followed months of tension, including US tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium, and vehicles. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently lifted most counter-tariffs and met with Trump twice, vowed to protect domestic markets if deals collapse. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the ad stung, while the Reagan Foundation condemned the edits as misleading and is considering legal action. With the USMCA up for review in 2026, economists warn of deepening rifts and job losses. Trump's claim of Canadian meddling in a looming Supreme Court tariff case further sours relations.

US-Canada trade negotiations: Ottawa stands ready to resume trade negotiations with the US, says PM Mark Carney
On 25 October, responding to US President Trump's statement that put trade negotiations with Canada on hold because of the Ontario political ad, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada is willing to continue trade negotiations with the US when it's ready. He said, "My colleagues have been working with their American colleagues on detailed constructive negotiations, discussions on specific sectors -- steel, aluminium and energy," and "We stand ready to pick up on that progress."

The US and China: USTR office initiates a new trade investigation on the "Phase One" Economic and Trade Agreement 
On 25 October, the US Trade Representative (USTR) launched a new investigation into the "Phase One" deal signed by US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping. The probe would investigate the implementation of China's commitments, inviting public submissions from 31 October to 1 December, with a public hearing on 16 December to collect full testimony. USTR Jamieson Greer said this investigation would help the President Trump Administration fulfil its resolve to hold China to its commitments, protect American farmers, ranchers, workers, and innovators, and establish a more reciprocal trade relationship with China for the benefit of the American people. China replied, calling the accusations "false accusations" and saying the US was escalating economic pressure on China. China's embassy spokesperson said on X that China had conscientiously fulfilled its obligations under the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement, benefiting investors from all countries, including US firms. The Phase One Deal was intended to rebalance trade between the US and China by increasing Chinese purchases of US farm, manufactured goods, energy, and services by $200 billion annually for at least 2 years. Not only did China fulfil the commitments, but it also blamed the COVID-19 pandemic that was spreading in 2020. China never met its purchasing targets and did not change its intellectual property protections, forced technology transfer, agriculture and financial services practices that were at the heart of Trump's first-term tariffs on Chinese imports. The investigation would help the Trump administration obtain additional legal backing to reinstate tariffs on Chinese imports if the US Supreme Court annulled Trump's duties under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. On 05 November, the court would hear arguments on a challenge to the IEEPA-based tariffs at about 30 per cent for Chinese goods. 

THIS WEEK IN HISTORY
24 October 1648: The Treaty of Westphalia comes into existence 
On 24 October 1648, the Treaty of Westphalia was signed, ending the Eighty Years' War between Spain and the Dutch and the German phase of the Thirty Years' War. The treaty agreed on the demarcation of territories and the confirmation of sovereignty over those occupied territories. The treaty confirmed the independent republic status of the United Provinces of the Netherlands and the Swiss Confederation. The treaty granted religious tolerance to Lutherans within the Holy Roman Empire, extending it to the Reformed (Calvinist) church and to Roman Catholics, Lutherans, and Calvinists. The treaty established the concept of territorial sovereignty and the modern state system, along with religious tolerance, in the history of Europe.

22 October 1962: The outbreak of the Cuban Missile Crisis 
On 22 October 1962, the US discovered that Soviet nuclear missiles were being installed in Cuba, which is just 90 miles from the shore. The former US President John F Kennedy demanded the removal of missiles and imposed a naval blockade on Cuba. This led to a 13-day confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union, and it ended when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to withdraw the missiles in exchange for a US pledge not to invade Cuba and the secret removal of American missiles from Turkey.

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Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan