The World This Week

Photo Source: Mint
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1836
The World This Week
Seven Major Developments This Week I US and Japan: President Trump’s Visit I US and South Korea: Trump’s Visit and a Trade Deal

  GP Team
2 November 2025

The World This Week #332, Vol 7, No 41, 02 Nov 2025
 

D Suba Chandran, Abhimanyu Solanki & Emma Rose Boby

The World This Week:
Seven Major Developments

1. Trump's Asia Visit: A New Rebalancing and a Second Pivot
A highlight of the week was Trump's visit to Asia. During 26-27 October, he began his Asia tour by participating in the 47th ASEAN Summit held in Kuala Lumpur. During the visit, he signed agreements with four ASEAN countries: Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam. With Cambodia and Malaysia, the US signed an "Agreement on Reciprocal Trade," and with Thailand and Vietnam, a "Framework for Reciprocal Trade." According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the agreements with these four countries will give American exporters access to the markets of these two countries and bolster the US national and economic security. Trump also oversaw the signing of the peace agreement between the two Prime Ministers of Thailand and Cambodia.

On 28 October, Trump landed in Japan, met the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and signed a framework agreement for "Securing the Supply of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths through Mining and Processing" and also signed the "Implementation of the Agreement Toward a NEW GOLDEN AGE for the US-Japan Alliance." (See the note below)

On 29 October, Trump landed in South Korea, signing a major deal that would not only boost economic relations between the two countries but also enhance defence cooperation. The US agreed to support South Korea in building nuclear-powered submarines, while South Korea agreed to invest in US shipbuilding (See the note below). The highlight of Trump's visit was his meeting with Chinese President Xi in Busan.

2. The Trump-Xi Summit at Busan: Strategic Reset or Tactical Pause?
On 30 October, for the first time since Trump became the American President for the second time, he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. According to Trump, the meeting was successful, as he rated it as "12" on a 10 scale. There were three major outcomes of the Trump-Xi meeting. First, the US agreed to reduce tariffs by ten per cent on certain Chinese goods, for example, on fentanyl-related items, from 20 to 10 per cent. In return, China agreed to resume "large-scale" purchasing of American agricultural products, for example, soybeans. Beijing had also agreed to a one-year pause on exports of rare earth minerals.

According to initial responses on the deal, the primary debate seems to be whether the Trump-Xi meeting will be a game-changer in global politics, or a temporary truce, and whether Trump has yielded more, with Xi using critical minerals and the purchase of American agricultural products as leverage.

3. US and Japan: The "New Golden Age"
On 28 October, President Trump met with the new Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. The meeting was expected to be an important one, both at the economic and security levels. The agreements signed between the two leaders and their significance for bilateral trade and defence should highlight the strategic nature of the relationship between the US and Japan. Japan sought to strengthen its defence relations, and the new leader wanted reassurance from Trump (especially given the latter's destructive approach to American strategic allies). PM Takaichi received exactly that, as the agreements would reveal.

On 28 October, according to a White House release, Trump "announced major projects advancing Japan's previous $550 billion investment commitment to the United States to further revitalize the US industrial base, signed a landmark critical minerals agreement with Japan, secured historic purchases of U.S. energy, and deepened U.S.-Japan cooperation in combating illegal drug trafficking." Japanese private industries would invest in the US's critical energy infrastructure (around USD 332 billion) – including the construction of small modular reactors, gas and steam turbines, and thermal cooling systems.

Trump and Takaichi also signed another landmark agreement on 28 October. Titled as "United States-Japan Framework for securing the Supply of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths through Mining and Processing," the agreement looks at intensifying the bilateral efforts "to accelerate the secure supply of critical minerals and rare earths necessary to support domestic industries, including advanced technologies and their respective industrial bases."

During his visit, Trump also signed an agreement with Takaichi, instructing the relevant ministers and secretaries in Japan and the US "to take further steps" to achieve a "NEW GOLDEN AGE" of the "ever-growing US-Japan Alliance."

While Trump's approach towards his traditional allies – for example, Europe- is seen as destructive, his meeting and the agreements that he has signed with Japan's new PM are positive. The New Golden Age should be more than rhetoric, serving as a new starting point for US-Japan bilateral relations and the American pivot to the Pacific.

4. US and South Korea: The focus on Trade and Infrastructure, and a Strategic Partnership
During Trump's visit, the US signed the much-anticipated trade deal with South Korea. (See the note below) Seoul has agreed to invest USD 350 billion, including a substantial investment in supporting the US shipbuilding. In return, Trump agreed to lower the tariff by ten per cent, from 25 to 15, especially in the South Korean automobile sector. The US also agreed to support South Korea's push to build nuclear submarines.

For Seoul, the security situation in the region, especially with North Korea, is an important defence issue. By agreeing to support that concern, Trump, like in the case of Japan, is focusing on building the US defence partnership in East Asia, rather than withdrawing from it, as many had feared.

5. ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM), ADMM Plus and the US: A new US-Philippines Military Task Force, and a Ten-Year Defence Cooperation Framework with India
During the ASEAN summit this week, the 12th ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) took place. Besides the ASEAN countries, the ADMM-Plus include the US, China, India, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Russia and New Zealand. On 1 November, they issued a joint statement focusing on multiple issues; one of the 11 commitments it made include reaffirming "the importance of mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity and national identity of our nations, maintaining and promoting peace, security, stability, prosperity, safety and freedom of navigation and overflight, as well as the need to enhance mutual trust and confidence, exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities and avoid actions that may further complicate the situation, and pursue peaceful resolution of disputes, in accordance with international law, including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea."

On the sidelines, the US also had multiple meetings. Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defence, made a statement, which is widely seen as a message to China and the other countries of the region about American resolve. According to media reports, the US defence secretary told that it would "stoutly defend" its interests in the Indo-Pacific and it is important for the US to maintain the "balance of power in the Indo-Pacific." He was also quoted to have said that the US do not seek conflict with China and agreed to reestablish military-to-military channels.

With the Philippines, the US has formed a new joint task force to "increase operational cooperation, improve combined planning and enhance interoperability, particularly in the South China Sea." With India, Pete Hegseth and the Indian defence minister, Mr Singh, signed a 10-year defence cooperation framework.

PS: The NIAS TWTW/TWT teams will work on the above meetings and provide an update shortly.

6. The Istanbul talks: Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to continue the ceasefire
On 30 October, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed in Istanbul to continue the ceasefire established earlier, following another round of negotiations in Doha. In Istanbul, initially, the two countries could not find a middle ground over the Taliban agreeing not to support the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) in Afghanistan, and a verification mechanism. However, Turkey, which was mediating between the two countries along with Qatar, succeeded in getting a joint statement signed. According to it, "all parties have agreed to put in place a monitoring and verification mechanism that will ensure maintenance of peace and impose a penalty on the violating party." The two countries also agreed to discuss further modalities on how to implement the above, later in another meeting on 6 November.

7. Trump wants the US to restart testing "nuclear weapons on an equal basis"
On 30 October, in a surprising announcement, the US President said that he had asked the US Department of Defense to "start testing (the US) Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis." His reasoning was: "With others doing testing, I think it's appropriate that we do also. We're going to do some testing."

The US tested nuclear weapons last in 1992; ever since, there has been a campaign and pressure by the US on the rest of the world to ban any further nuclear tests and the signing of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Trump's announcement would be a nuclear signalling mainly to Russia and China. Russia recently tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile. Outside that, except for North Korea, none of the other countries have tested nuclear weapons during the last two decades. Russia and China tested last in 1990 and 1996, respectively. So, what is the testing to be on an "equal basis" statement by Trump means? Are there sub-critical tests or nuclear simulations taking place?

PS: The NIAS TWTW/TWT teams will work on the above and provide an update shortly.

US and Japan:
President Trump's Visit, Technology Prosperity Deal and the "New Golden Age"

Abhimanyu Solanki

What happened?
On 27 October, US President Donald Trump landed in Tokyo, Japan, as part of his Asia tour. He received a royal welcome and met with Japan's Emperor Naruhito at the Imperial Palace.

On 28 October, President Trump met with Japan's newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the country's first female Prime Minister, at Akasaka Palace in Tokyo. He held several bilateral meetings focused on trade and the US-Japan alliance. Japan remains one of the largest trading and security partners of the US, as the US exported around USD 80 billion in goods to Japan in 2024, while Japan exported roughly USD 148 billion to the United States. Bilateral talks resulted in the US-Japan Technology Prosperity Deal. The two leaders agreed to take further steps for a "New Golden Age" of the ever-growing Japan-US Alliance.

President Trump announced that Japan's previous commitment to invest USD 550 billion in the US has made progress with the advancement of major projects. Both countries agreed to a common policy framework for the mining and processing of critical minerals and rare earths. In a major push, during bilateral talks, Japanese companies outlined their commitments, including up to USD 332 billion to support critical energy infrastructure in the United States. The MOC for the US-Japan Technology Prosperity Deal is also signed, affirming the mutual benefits of using cloud technology.

What is the background?
First, a brief overview of US-Japan economic relations. Trade has been a cornerstone of the US-Japan bilateral relations; however, there is no comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. In 2024, the US-Japan trade is estimated at USD 319.2 billion, with a jump of four per cent from 2023. US exports to Japan largely include mineral fuels, liquefied natural gas, meat and poultry, industrial machines, medicines and medical equipment, civilian aircraft, engines, and parts. US imports from Japan are dominated by autos, auto parts, and electronics. Cumulatively, in 2024, the US has a trade deficit of around USD 79 billion. When Trump announced tariffs worldwide, Japan was one of the first countries to sign a deal with the US. President Donald Trump is pushing his "America First" approach in his second term. Earlier in July, the US and Japan struck a trade agreement that imposed a 15 per cent tariff on Japanese goods and included Japan's commitment to invest USD 550 billion in the US. Also, Japan has remained one of the largest investors in the US for many years.

Second, a brief overview of security cooperation. The US remains an important geopolitical ally of Japan in bolstering the latter's security. The US is committed to the defence of Japan by using its full range of capabilities, including nuclear capabilities under Article 5 of the Japan-US security treaty. In regard to China's assertion in the South China Sea, the US and Japan opposed China's "unlawful maritime claims, militarization of reclaimed features."

What does it mean?
First, the commitment to strengthen relations by the two leaders, President Trump and PM Takaichi. Japan is making efforts to support US manufacturing and exports through billions of dollars in investments in areas such as AI Infrastructure, Electronics, and logistics. Announcement of record purchases of US energy by Japan supports the US Trump approach.

Second, the importance of the defence in the bilateral relations. Besides trade, the new technology deal would highlight the importance of security relations between the US and Japan.

US and South Korea:
Trump's Visit and a Trade Deal
Emma Rose Boby

In the news
On 29 October 2025, during his visit to South Korea, President Trump and President Lee Jae-myung finalised the USD 350 billion trade deal. The much-awaited deal would assist the US in its bid for energy dominance, as South Korea has agreed to purchase US gas and oil in large quantities. South Korea would also invest over USD 350 billion, comprising a USD 200 billion cash investment (capped at USD 20 billion per year) and USD 150 billion for shipbuilding cooperation, along with HD Hyundai's USD 5 billion investment project to improve shipyards and supply chains.

President Trump also agreed that South Korea needed nuclear-powered submarines and spoke about promoting their maritime cooperation. The two also agreed to the US-ROK Technology Prosperity Deal, which would facilitate technology cooperation on the US's AI exports, AI adoption, 6G, quantum innovation, and more. Additionally, South Korean businesses and companies are expected to invest over USD 600 billion.

Issues at large
First, a brief note on US-South Korea trade and the deal. The bilateral trade between the US and South Korea has evolved into a robust partnership between the two countries, with the US being a primary market for South Korean products. Exports from South Korea to the US, now the nation's second-largest trading partner, include machinery and vehicles, electronics, mineral fuels and oils, and iron and steel. The US, in turn, exports technical and medical apparatus, meat, organic chemicals, and pharmaceutical products. In 2023, the US' goods exports to South Korea were estimated to be USD 61.3 billion, with crude oil (19.74 per cent), machinery (7.52 per cent), and petroleum gas (6.85 per cent) taking up the largest shares. South Korea's primary exports to the US in 2023 were cars (26.52 per cent), motor vehicles: parts and accessories (5.23 per cent) and refined petroleum (3.92 per cent). Their overall goods exports came to around USD 118 billion. There was a significant increase in South Korean exports to the US in 2024, reaching approximately USD 128 billion, with primary products including vehicles (33.57 per cent), machinery (20.84 per cent), and electronic equipment (16.33 per cent). However, for the US, goods exports totalled only USD 65.5 billion, with mineral fuels (28.18 per cent), machinery (11.18 per cent), and electronic equipment (8.98 per cent) being the major components.

Second, the importance of the automobile industry, Trump's tariffs, and bilateral relations. For South Korea, its automobile industry (the fifth largest automobile manufacturing country with Hyundai and KIA) is essential for its export growth. In 2024, South Korea's vehicle exports to the US also account for around USD 42.97 billion. The US imposition of 25 per cent tariffs left South Korea in a frenzy and posed a threat to the Korean economy. Seoul had to implement emergency measures, expanding policy financing and employing emergency liquidation. The tariff led to a 61.2 per cent decline in Korean-made automobile exports to the US. Annual loss was estimated to be around USD 54.87 billion. In 2024, Hyundai Motor Group sold over 1,633,290 vehicles in the US. Meanwhile, 90 per cent of GM Korea's production is sold to the US, which not only puts the automobile industry at risk but also affects employment. Though the tariffs were reduced to 15 per cent right before their imposition on South Korea, there was no formal agreement. Trump's tariff are concerning both cars and semiconductors, which are the two primary exports to South Korea.

In perspective
The trade deal that was struck raises questions not only about the Free Trade Agreement between the two nations but also about the current stability of their ties. President Trump was met with multiple protests during his arrival in the country due to 'coercive politics' regarding the trade deals. President Lee may be caught in the tides of appeasement in terms of the US, but also in the midst of the rife political crisis in South Korea following his predecessor's impeachment. So, while the trade deal has been signed, it seems subject to change given the conflicting nature of South Korea's citizens' and President Trump's interests.

Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Aparna A Nair, Brighty Ann Sarah, Lekshmi MK, M Kejia, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Vaihali Chittrothu

CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
APEC Summit concludes: Joint declaration emphasizing resilience and mutual benefits issued; Seoul seeks Beijing's support in denuclearization talks with Pyongyang
On 01 November, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting, hosted by South Korea, concluded with the adoption of a joint declaration emphasizing the need for resilience and mutual trade benefits. President Xi announced that China will host the 2026 APEC summit and proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization. South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung also sought China's support in resuming denuclearization talks with North Korea. President Xi responded that he was willing to broaden cooperation and jointly tackle the challenges they face. "I am very positive about the situation in which conditions for engagement with North Korea are being formed," Lee said, referring to recent high-level exchanges between China and North Korea. However, Pyongyang dismissed Lee's remarks, stating that any effort to disrupt its nuclear program is a "pipe dream". Trump had also offered to meet Kim Jong Un during his visit to South Korea, but Pyongyang made no public response. The US had announced new trade deals with several countries, including China and South Korea, ahead of the meeting, but President Trump departed before the summit could commence. The Trump-Xi Jinping summit also produced a deal that includes lower US tariffs on Chinese goods in return for Beijing's action against illegal fentanyl trade, the resumption of US soybean purchases, and continued rare earth exports.

China and Canada: President Xi and PM Carney discuss trade and the advancement of bilateral relations on the sidelines of APEC
On 31 October, on the sidelines of APEC in South Korea, China's President Xi Jinping held talks with Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney. They discussed solutions for trade issues, including agricultural and agri-food products, as well as electric vehicles. According to a statement from PM Carney's office, it has also been decided to deepen cooperation in energy, agriculture, manufacturing, climate change, and international finance. China's state broadcaster CCTV reported that President XI stated that China values Canada's stated readiness to improve bilateral relations and China was willing to work with Canada to put ties back on track. Additionally, both sides agreed to promote the China–Canada strategic partnership.

US and China: President Trump and President Xi have an "amazing" meeting; the US agree to reduce the fentanyl-related tariffs on China; Beijing agrees to buy large amounts of soybeans from the US and relax some control over rare-earth elements
On 30 October, President Trump met with President Xi for the first time since becoming the President for a second term. Trump called the much-expected meeting "amazing" and said, "On a scale of 0-10, with 10 being the best, the meeting was a 12." He agreed to reduce the fentanyl-related tariffs on China from 20 per cent to 10 per cent, because, according to Trump, President Xi had pledged "to work very hard" on the subject. President Xi Jinping said, "China's development and rejuvenation are not incompatible with President Trump's goal of 'Making America Great Again." According to the US media reports, China had agreed to relax "some of the controls it imposed on exports of processed rare-earth minerals for one year" and agreed to buy large amounts of soybeans from the US. (Wall Street Journal).

South Korea and Japan: President Lee and PM Takaichi express interest in strengthening bilateral relations on the sidelines of the APEC summit
On 30 October, South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung told Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that strengthening bilateral ties was more important than ever amid shifting trade dynamics. This happened on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Gyeongju and is the first in-person meeting of both leaders since Takaichi became Japan's PM. They underscored a "future-oriented" approach to relations and growing trilateral cooperation with Washington. While contentious historical issues were left unspoken, President Lee remarked that the two countries sometimes hurt each other like family. President Lee also gifted Korean seaweed and cosmetics to PM Takaichi during the meeting.

US and South Korea: President Trump finalizes a trade deal and details of USD 350 billion investments with South Korea 
On 29 October, US President Donald Trump finalised a trade deal with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, including USD 350 billion in investments into the US. The South Korean government would split its promised USD 350 billion investment fund into USD 200 billion in cash to be paid in instalments and capped at USD 20 billion per year. The other USD 150 billion is to be spent on shipbuilding investments led by Korean firms and including both direct investments and government-backed guarantees. Even though the US had not yet confirmed the details, the latter agreed to split profits 50/50 and to pursue only commercially viable projects. For this, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would head an investment committee to assess potential projects. Additional market openings in rice and beef areas were strictly limited. Apart from trade, President Lee had asked President Trump to permit the country to reprocess nuclear fuel to power submarines that could track North Korean and Chinese vessels for longer periods. President Trump promised to "straighten out" South Korea's problems with its nuclear-armed northern neighbour. The summit was held on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings. On 30 October, President Trump would meet China's President Xi Jinping to discuss decreasing US tariffs in exchange for curbing the exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals.

US-Japan: Takaichi summit yields pact on critical minerals and atomic energy as Trump gears up for Xi Talks
On 28 October, US President Donald Trump met Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a hawkish conservative evoking Shinzo Abe's vision. Trump praised her as a "formidable partner" in strengthening the alliance amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Key outcomes tackled trade imbalances and Beijing's aggression. Japan pledged to elevate defence outlays to 2 per cent of GDP by 2027, enhancing joint exercises and missile interoperability. A pivotal deal secured diversified rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains essential for semiconductors, batteries, and weaponry, reducing China's 90 per cent processing monopoly through joint ventures and US stockpiles. Japan announced USD 550 billion in US investments, including SoftBank's USD 200 billion AI push, Toyota's USD 10 billion EV factories, and nuclear ties via Mitsubishi's AP1000 reactors and Toshiba's SMRs. Takaichi suggested nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize; he reciprocated by teasing a swift thaw in China trade. This pact signals a strategic pivot, bolstering supply security and deterrence.

The US and Asia: After the ASEAN Summit, President Trump arrives in Tokyo; the US secures a USD 550 billion investment
On 27 October, the US President Donald Trump arrived in Tokyo and received a royal welcome from Emperor Naruhito and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. His visit to Japan follows his announcement of multiple trade and mineral cooperation deals with four Southeast Asian countries during his earlier stop in Malaysia. In Japan, Trump secured a USD 550 billion investment pledge from Tokyo in exchange for tariff relief and is set to finalise a memorandum of understanding on shipbuilding cooperation. PM Takaichi reiterated Japan's commitment to strengthening its defence ties with the US and announced plans to accelerate the country's largest military build-up since World War II, raising defence spending to two per cent of GDP. According to US officials, negotiators from Washington and Beijing have reached a preliminary framework for a deal to pause further American tariffs and Chinese export controls on rare earths. Trump expressed optimism about an agreement, saying, "I've got a lot of respect for President Xi and I think we're going to come away with a deal." He is expected to meet President Xi Jinping later this week in South Korea to discuss the truce. On 29 October, Trump will proceed to South Korea to meet President Lee Jae Myung and on 30 October, he will conclude his trip with talks with Xi.

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
ASEAN Defence Summit: The US is "eager to share" defence capabilities with allies and partners to counter Beijing's aggressions in the South China Sea, says Pete Hegseth
On 01 November, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth, at an ASEAN defence summit in Malaysia, proposed to ASEAN defence ministers the building of shared maritime domain awareness and announced US support in countering China's aggression in the South China Sea. He stated that "We need to develop our joint capabilities to respond, and this includes being able to monitor maritime conduct and develop the tools that allow us to respond quickly." Hegseth also emphasized that "No one can innovate and scale like the United States of America, and we're eager to share those capabilities with allies and partners." His remarks follow a joint drill by the armed forces of Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, and the US in the South China Sea. China's military spokesperson stated that the patrol "seriously undermined peace and stability."

India and the US: Washington and New Delhi sign a 10-year defence framework agreement
On 31 October, India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth signed a 10-year Defence Framework Agreement between the two countries at the ASEAN Defence Summit in Malaysia. Rajnath Singh described it as a "signal" of our growing strategic convergence, stating that it would "usher in a new era in our already strong defence partnership." Pete Hegseth described the framework as "a cornerstone for regional stability and deterrence," emphasising enhanced coordination, information sharing, and technological cooperation. The pact provides long-term policy direction across the full spectrum of defence collaboration and reinforces the commitment to a "free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific." The agreement comes in the backdrop of efforts to repair strained relations after Washington imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi's Russian oil imports, which had led India to pause US defence purchases. The meeting between Singh and Hegseth marked the first since the tariffs, reflecting a mutual intent to revitalise defence engagement.

US and the Philippines: Pentagon announces joint task force to strengthen operations in South China Sea and beyond
On 31 October, the US and Philippines launched Task Force-Philippines to bolster military readiness and interoperability, the Pentagon announced. Unveiled after US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth's fourth meeting with Philippine counterpart Gilberto Teodoro at an ASEAN defence forum in Kuala Lumpur, the task force aims to strengthen operational cooperation and joint planning in contested waters. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated, "This will increase operational cooperation, improve combined planning, and enhance interoperability, particularly in the South China Sea." Backed by their mutual defence treaty, the allies pledged to "reestablish deterrence" against China's aggressive postures, including clashes with Manila and strains near Taiwan. They also finalised a two-year modernisation roadmap to fast-track defence priorities, signalling a deeper US commitment to Indo-Pacific stability amid Beijing's encroachments.

Pakistan and Afghanistan: Islamabad warns of deep strikes into Afghanistan, as the talks with the Taliban fail in Istanbul; the two sides blame each other for the failure
On 29 October, Pakistan's defence minister warned the Taliban of deep strikes in Afghanistan. He was quoted to have stated: "If their territory is used and they violate our territory, then, if we need to go deep into Afghanistan to retaliate, we surely will." Earlier, talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which had been held since 25 October, broke down. According to the defence minister, "Kabul was not sincere at any level for any arrangement. On the directives of India and by becoming its proxy, Fitna al-Hindustan wants to leverage its position over Pakistan through Afghanistan." Al Jazeera quoted an Afghan source saying:  Kabul had "made every effort to hold constructive talks", but that the "Pakistani side does not seem to have this intention".

ASEAN and China: Beijing signs the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 Upgrade Protocol
On 28 October, China signed an upgrade to the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) at the 28th ASEAN-China Summit, expanding towards the digital and green economy. It covered product quality, environmental protection of product financing, research, development and consumption of goods, and the upgraded agreement would set certain "standards" in developing technical regulations and prioritise standards for electronic appliances and new-energy vehicles. It not only supports the least developed countries through "technical assistance" but also promotes e-commerce and intellectual property rights awareness among smaller businesses to strengthen multilateral economic ties for China. Chinese Premier Li Qiang said that this agreement would facilitate both sides to withstand risks "when many countries are facing greater development challenges after being unfairly subjected to steep tariffs." China's Ministry of Commerce said that this version holds great significance in addressing the severe challenges to the rules-based international trading system by demonstrating its shared commitment to multilateralism and free trade, and by resisting protectionism and unilateralism. China aims to diversify its economic and trade relations and counter hefty import tariffs from the US.

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
The War in Gaza: Remains handed over by Hamas were not those of hostages held in Gaza, reports Israeli media
On 01 November, Israeli media reported that the partial remains handed over by Hamas were not those of any hostages held in Gaza. Late on 31 October, the International Committee of the Red Cross stated that it had facilitated the transfer of the remains from Gaza to Israeli authorities for identification. According to Army Radio, Kan News, and N12 News, DNA tests by Israeli forensic experts determined the remains did not match known hostages. Hamas stated that it had initially offered three samples from unidentified bodies for testing, but Israel had demanded complete remains, a condition later accepted by the group. The Israeli government has not officially commented on the reports. At present, the bodies of 11 hostages, including two foreign nationals, are believed to remain in Gaza. Since the US-backed ceasefire took effect on 10 October, Hamas has released 20 living hostages and returned the remains of 17 others.

The War in Gaza: Hamas hands over the bodies of two deceased hostages to Israel
On 30 October, Hamas handed over the bodies of two deceased Israeli hostages to Israel, a day after the US-backed fragile Gaza ceasefire was disrupted by Israeli airstrikes. The Israeli military confirmed late on 30 October that the bodies were identified and returned for burial. Under the ceasefire, Hamas agreed to release all living hostages in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. The agreement also required Hamas to transfer the remains of 28 deceased hostages in return for 360 Palestinian militants killed during the conflict. As of 30 October, 15 bodies had been returned. Israel has accused Hamas of delaying the remaining transfers, while Hamas maintains that locating and recovering all remains requires time. The disagreement over the recovery and handover of bodies remains a key challenge in implementing the broader 20-point peace plan aimed at ending the war. The hostages' handover follows Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on 28-29 October after a Palestinian attack that killed one Israeli soldier. According to Gaza's health ministry, the bombardments killed 104 people, including 46 children and 20 women. Israel stated that the strikes targeted dozens of militants.

The War in Gaza: Israel continues airstrikes and tank shelling in eastern Gaza
On 30 October, Israeli forces carried out airstrikes and tank shelling in eastern Gaza, targeting "terrorist infrastructure" in areas still under their control, a day after reaffirming commitment to a fragile US-backed truce. There were no casualties reported, but the raids heightened fears among displaced residents of a ceasefire collapse after two years of war. The strikes followed deadly bombardments earlier in the week that killed 104 Palestinians, including 46 children, in retaliation for an Israeli soldier's death, a claim attributed to Hamas gunmen, but the group denied. Israel named 26 militants targeted, including a Hamas commander linked to the 2023 attack that ignited the conflict. US President Donald Trump, who brokered the 10 October pact, insisted the truce holds, affirming Israel's right to "hit back" while urging restraint. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed support for disarming Hamas as a core goal. Hamas announced it would hand over two more hostage bodies later Thursday. 

The War in Gaza: New Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 105; "Nothing is going to jeopardize the ceasefire," says US President Trump
On 29 October, Reuters reported that Israel struck Gaza and killed 105 people in response to a Palestinian militant attack against Israeli forces. The Israeli military stated in a statement that it would continue to uphold the ceasefire agreement and would respond firmly to "any violation". In this context, US President Trump said, "Nothing is going to jeopardize the ceasefire," and "You have to understand Hamas is a very small part of peace in the Middle East, and they have to behave." Moreover, citing Israel's ceasefire violation, Hamas's armed wing, Al-Qassam Brigades, postponed the planned handover of a recovered missing hostage body.

The War in Gaza: Israeli PM Netanyahu states ceasefire violation by Hamas; Israeli forces kill three Palestinian militants
On 28 October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would respond to Hamas' ceasefire violation. He added that  human remains handed over by Hamas belonged to a hostage whose body had already been recovered by Israeli forces earlier in the war, and he would consult with the defence chiefs to decide on "Israel's next steps."  In response, Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem said, "Hamas will continue to exert every effort possible to hand over the remaining bodies until this issue is fully concluded and as soon as possible," and mentioned the lack of equipment to identify bodies. On the same day, Reuters reported that Israel killed three Palestinian militants in the West Bank.

The War in Gaza: Israel sets limits on foreign forces; US Secretary of State defends Israeli strike; Red Cross and Egyptian teams enter Gaza to recover hostage bodies 
On 27 October, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel alone would determine which international forces are acceptable in Gaza, asserting its right to control post-conflict security arrangements. Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar confirmed that Turkiye's armed forces would not be allowed to take part in any mission, citing national security concerns. Meanwhile, Israel allowed the Red Cross and Egyptian technical teams to enter parts of Gaza to assist in the recovery of hostage bodies, expanding humanitarian coordination. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Israel's recent strike in Gaza, saying it did not violate the ceasefire agreement, arguing that it targeted "active militant threats."

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Tanzania's general election: President Samia Suluhu Hassan is the winner, declares the Electoral Commission, amidst violent demonstrations
On 01 November, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the landslide winner of the general elections. President Hassan won with more than 31.9 million votes, or 97.66 per cent of the total votes. Protests began earlier this week over the disqualification of Tanzania's main opposition party, CHADEMA, from participating in the election for failing to sign an election code of conduct document. President Hassan said the actions of the protesters were "neither responsible nor patriotic." UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a thorough and impartial investigation into all allegations of excessive use of force, and condemned the loss of life. Tanzania's Foreign Affairs Minister, Mahmoud Thabit Kombo, denied allegations that security services had used excessive force, and that a "very few small pockets of incidents" were caused by criminal elements. The UN human rights office said at least 10 citizens were killed in three cities. The government dismissed the opposition's death toll of hundreds as "hugely exaggerated" and has rejected criticism of its human rights record. Since 30 October, a nationwide curfew has been imposed with restricted access to the internet. Many international flights were cancelled, and operations at Dar es Salaam's port, a hub for fuel imports and exports of metals mined across the region, have been disrupted.

Sudan: 60,000 residents flee El Fasher, reports the UN
On 1 November, the UN reported that more than 60,000 people had fled El Fasher. This happened after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized the city following a long siege. The UN says those escaping report widespread violence, including killings, sexual assault, and severe hunger. Many people are trying to reach Tawila, which is about 80km away. But they face intimidation and abuse from armed groups along the road. Humanitarian workers say children arriving are severely malnourished. Meanwhile, about 150,000 people remain trapped in the city with limited access to food and safety. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have denied claims of ethnically driven attacks. However, footage has emerged showing summary executions, and one fighter has been arrested. Sudan's civil war, which began in April 2023 between the army and the RSF, has caused mass displacement and deepened famine across the country.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The War in Ukraine: Russia's Defense Ministry says it destroyed a Ukrainian special forces team deployed in Pokrovsk
On 01 November, Russia's Defence Ministry stated that its forces had eliminated a team of Ukrainian special forces deployed to prevent further Russian advances in Pokrovsk, a city in eastern Ukraine. Reuters reported that Russia seeks to capture the entire Donbas region, which includes the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. However, Ukraine continues to hold roughly 10 per cent of Donbas, around 5,000 square kilometres in western Donetsk. Pokrovsk, described by Russian media as "the gateway to Donetsk," holds strategic importance for advancing towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the remaining major Ukrainian-controlled cities in the Donetsk region. Kyiv reported that its special forces had been deployed to Pokrovsk earlier in the week, arriving by a Black Hawk helicopter. Russia's Defense Ministry stated that "All 11 people who disembarked from the helicopter were killed," and that operations to secure Pokrovsk were ongoing. However, Reuters reported that a Ukrainian military source negated Russia's claim, stating that Ukrainian forces remained active in Pokrovsk and that efforts to stabilize the area continued.

The War in Ukraine: The Financial Times reports that the US cancelled a planned Budapest summit between President Trump and President Putin
On 31 October, the Financial Times reported that the United States cancelled a planned Budapest summit between President Trump and President Putin due to Moscow's strong stance on hardline demands concerning Ukraine. The decision followed a call between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, after which Rubio informed Trump that Russia showed no willingness to negotiate, the FT report stated. Moscow had demanded Ukrainian territorial concessions, a steep reduction of its armed forces, and guarantees against NATO membership as preconditions for a ceasefire. The Financial Times noted that these terms were reiterated in a Russian memo sent to Washington days after the two leaders had agreed to meet in Budapest. The White House and Russian officials have not confirmed this news, says Reuters. Earlier this month, President Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv is open to peace talks but will not withdraw troops from additional territory first to meet Russian demands.

The War in Ukraine: Russia continues attacks on gas and energy infrastructure in Ukraine
On 30 October, Reuters reported that Russia launched a drone and missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said, "Its goal is to plunge Ukraine into darkness. Ours is to preserve the light," and "To stop the terror, we need more air defence systems, tougher sanctions, and maximum pressure on the aggressor." The latest attack with 650 drones and 50 missiles has struck the energy facilities in central, western and southeastern regions. According to the latest literature, these attacks badly affect Ukraine's effort to preserve energy during winter. Owing to this reason, the government have announced nationwide limits on electricity supplies to retail and industrial consumers. Moreover, to tackle this crisis, Ukraine will resume gas imports from Greece via the Transbalkan pipeline in November.

The War in Ukraine: Russia's President Putin announces successful test of "Poseidon" nuclear-powered super torpedo; Heavy fighting continues near Pokrovsk; Ukraine launches drone strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure
On 29 October, Russia's President Vladimir Putin announced the successful test of the nuclear-powered Poseidon super torpedo. He stated that it is "impossible to intercept" and highlighted its unmatched destructive capability. Military analysts warned that the test could trigger radioactive ocean swells and that it reflects Moscow's push to reaffirm its military dominance amid Western pressure. Meanwhile, Ukraine is struggling to hold the eastern city of Pokrovsk. Ukraine's open-source group DeepState described the situation as "on the verge of critical and continues to deteriorate to the point that fixing everything may be too late" as Russia's forces attempt to encircle the area. At the same time, Kyiv intensified drone strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure by targeting refineries and gas plants in Mari El, Ulyanovsk, and Stavropol. Russia said its air defences destroyed 100 Ukrainian drones overnight.

The War in Ukraine: "If there will be results, then God bless - let the talks take place anywhere," says President Zelensky; Russia's defence ministry reports drone attacks
On 28 October, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed readiness for peace talks and stated that Ukraine will not withdraw its troops from additional territory as Moscow demanded. He added that he is ready for a summit anywhere except in Moscow and its allied regions, such as Belarus. He said, "It's absolutely clear that we're approaching diplomacy only from the position where we currently stand. We will not take any steps back and leave one part of our state or another." He further requested that US lawmakers pass tougher restrictions on Russia. In a statement, the Russian defence ministry reported a Ukrainian drone attack for the second night in a row and Russia's air defence units destroyed 17 Ukrainian drones overnight, including one flying towards Moscow and 13 over the Kaluga region, which borders the Moscow region to its northeast. Furthermore, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, "Our military hears foreign speech, they constantly hear foreign languages at the front," and "these foreigners are there, we are destroying them. Our military will continue to do their job."

The War in Ukraine: President Trump urges President Putin to end the war; President Zelensky pushes a ceasefire plan
On 27 October, US President Donald Trump urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to "end the war, not test missiles," after Moscow confirmed the successful launch of its nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile. The test drew strong Western concern as it came amid intensifying fighting in eastern Ukraine and renewed airstrikes near Kyiv. Ukrainian forces have deployed reinforcements to the city of Pokrovsk, where Russian troops continue to press forward. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine and its allies are drafting a comprehensive ceasefire plan, expected to be finalised within the next ten days, signalling a diplomatic push to de-escalate the conflict. The Kremlin has not responded to President Trump's comments, but Russian officials maintain that missile testing is part of "strategic deterrence."

NORTH & SOUTH AMERICAS THIS WEEK
The US: President Trump orders testing of nuclear weapons; Moscow says it will act "accordingly"
On 30 October, US President Donald Trump said he has instructed the Pentagon to "start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis with Russia and China." He added that it was "because of other countries' testing programs, that process will begin immediately." In a post on social media, Trump wrote, "Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years." When speaking to reporters after a meeting with China's President Xi Jinping, Trump declined to specify whether he referred to underground nuclear explosions or delivery system tests. When asked if the move was related to China, he replied, "It had to do with others. They seem to all be nuclear testing." The announcement comes despite the US maintaining a testing moratorium since 1992 alongside Russia and China and without ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned that Russia would respond "accordingly" if Washington abandons the moratorium. Referring to President Vladimir Putin's consistent position, Peskov said, "If someone abandons the moratorium, then Russia will act accordingly." Peskov also clarified on the nuclear testing by saying, "We are so far not aware of this. If it is about Burevestnik, then it is not a nuclear test." The Burevestnik, a nuclear-capable cruise missile powered by a small reactor, was successfully tested last week, but according to Moscow, it does not violate the moratorium.

Argentina: President Milei's party wins the crucial mid-term elections
On 26 October, in the mid-term elections held in Argentina, according to preliminary reports, President Javier Milei's party - La Libertad Avanza (LLA) has performed well. The mid-term elections featured contests for 127 seats in the lower house (the Chamber of Deputies of the Argentine Nation, which has 257 seats) and 24 seats in the upper house (the Senate of the Argentine Nation, which has 72 seats). The mid-term election was considered a referendum on President Milei's policies. According to preliminary reports, LLA has won 64 seats in the House of Deputies (from 37), giving the President crucial support in the legislature. The current numbers would enable President Milei to secure the support he would need in the legislature and avoid vetoes.  President Trump, who is considered a friend to President Milei, posted on the latter's victory: "Congratulations to President Javier Milei on his Landslide Victory in Argentina. He is doing a wonderful job! Our confidence in him was justified by the People of Argentina." According to a New York Times report, "It was also a victory for President Trump, who had endorsed Mr. Milei and said that a bailout from the United States, in the form of a $20 billion currency swap, was contingent on his success in the midterm elections. Mr. Milei is an enthusiastic supporter of Mr. Trump and the MAGA movement, and his fortunes are seen by the Trump administration as a way to bolster American influence in South America and counter China's push into the region."

Canada at APEC: Prime Minister Carney to meet President Xi as Ottawa strives to expand trade with Indo-Pacific region; President Trump declines talks with PM Carney
On 27 October, Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is scheduled to meet with China's President, Xi Jinping, this week and is also willing to conduct trade discussions with US President Donald Trump. PM Carney stated that "We stand ready to sit down with the United States, myself, with the President, my colleagues, with their colleagues, when the US is ready to sit down." He also said, "We are going to fight for Canadians." While both President Trump and PM Carney will be at the APEC summit, President Trump stated, "I don't want to meet with him (Carney). No, I'm not going to be meeting with him for a while." President Carney is to meet President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC meeting. Previously, President Trump announced the suspension of trade talks with Canada, and on 25 October, he also announced an additional 10 per cent tariff on Canada's goods. This is President Carney's first official visit to Asia, and he expressed the intent to double non-US exports and strike a series of new trade deals, including in the Indo-Pacific region. He added that Canada will start discussions on a new free trade deal with the Philippines and is gearing up for a broader agreement with ASEAN by next year.

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan