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IPRI Team
13 November 2025 |
Conflict Weekly #307, 13 November 2025, Vol. 6, No. 46
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Rohini Reenum
Israel’s ceasefire violations in Lebanon: History, Causes and Consequences
Rohini Reenum
In the news
On 8 November, Israel carried out air raids and drone attacks between the towns of Ain Ata and Shebaa, Bint Jbeil and Baraachit in Southern Lebanon, marking the latest violation of the US and France-brokered November 2024 ceasefire with Hezbollah. Three people were killed and eleven were injured. Israel maintained that it targeted Hezbollah members and its “military installations” for refusing to disarm as per the ceasefire.
On 6 November, Israel carried out multiple airstrikes in Southern Lebanon, killing one person and injuring nine others. The Lebanese government and Hezbollah condemned these attacks “as a flagrant violation of a one-year-old ceasefire.”
Issues at large
First, a brief note on Israel-Lebanon relations. The Israel-Lebanon conflict goes back to Israel’s occupation of a part of southern Lebanon during the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, when 100,000 Palestinian refugees fled to Lebanon. Later, Lebanon became home to Palestinian refugees and anti-Israel groups such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), its splinter groups, including Abu Nidal Organization (ANO). This led to increased cross-border attacks, especially after the PLO shifted base from Jordan to Lebanon in 1970. This resulted in Israel’s first invasion of Lebanon during the 1978 Lebanese Civil War, occupying a narrow zone in the South and backing a local Christian militia, the South Lebanese Army (SLA). In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon again, extending up to West Beirut in retaliation for cross-border attacks by the PLO. This move gave birth to Hezbollah with alleged support from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Since then, the Israeli-Lebanon conflict turned into an Israeli-Hezbollah conflict. In 1983, Israel withdrew its forces from Beirut but continued to occupy Southern Lebanon until 2000.
Second, a brief note on Israel-Hezbollah relations. Hezbollah, a Shi’ite armed group, was formed to counter the Israeli occupation of Lebanon. Its manifesto mentions resistance against/ elimination of Israel, along with support for Iran. It is widely believed that Hezbollah’s attacks forced Israel to withdraw from Southern Lebanon in 2000. Since then, violence has intermittently broken out between the two, including a five-week war in 2006, and the most recent clash in 2023 following Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel.
Third, a background to the recent conflict. The recent violence between the two began when Hezbollah started cross-border strikes in solidarity with Hamas. Israel retaliated with strikes and the subsequent targeted killing of Hezbollah’s leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah. The biggest blow to Hezbollah came in September 2024 when thousands of hand-held pagers belonging to its operatives exploded, causing severe damage to its communication channels and morale. Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attack; however, the latter refrained from commenting. Despite this setback, Hezbollah continued its attacks, demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. On 1 October 2024, Israel invaded Southern Lebanon, marking the sixth Israeli invasion. On 26 November 2024, both sides signed a US-France-brokered ceasefire agreement.
Fourth, ceasefire violations and Israeli attacks. Both sides have accused each other of ceasefire violations. According to Al Jazeera, Israel has continued near-daily attacks since the ceasefire began. In the past week, Israel intensified attacks on Southern Lebanon. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accused Israel of intensifying attacks after he proposed negotiations for lasting peace. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Hezbollah is trying to rearm and recuperate and that Israel will do anything to prevent that. Israel has refused to withdraw from Southern Lebanon as per the agreement and is demanding that Hezbollah withdraw to north of the Litani River. Hezbollah has not launched any attacks post-ceasefire. However, The Wall Street Journal quoted Arab and Israeli intelligence that it is rearming and rebuilding its ranks in violation of the ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah has offered to consider disarming if Israel withdraws and stops its attacks.
In perspective
First, a weakened Hezbollah and Israel’s endgame. Hezbollah has been a long-standing source of threat and instability to Israel, especially on its northern border. With Hezbollah significantly weakened after the 2024 war (Hezbollah has not been able to launch any significant attacks against Israel in the past year), Israel views this as an opportunity to dismantle its adversary permanently or at least get the Lebanese government to disarm the group. After the Hamas attack, Israel’s endgame has been to completely obliterate regional non-state armed groups that pose a threat, mainly Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. The Hamas attack and the other two groups joining in solidarity have provided it with the pretext to continue its attacks in Lebanon and Yemen. The war in Gaza has provided adequate cover for Israel’s transgressions across the region, reflected in its ground and air incursions into Syria and the blatant attack on Doha.
Second, Israel’s ceasefire violations are a new normal. Israel is not only violating the ceasefire in Lebanon but also in Gaza. Some analysts have called this the “Lebanonisation of Gaza”, where there is “no war, no peace” and attacks continue despite the ceasefire. It's a model that works well for Israel. The political/moral pressure to agree to a ceasefire has lifted, while attacks can be continued with various justifications until war aims are met. This undermines not just Israel’s credibility but international norms, law, trust and order and sets a dangerous precedent for the future.
CW Column: The War in Ukraine
Escalating battles in Ukraine: Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk under intense pressure
Padmashree Anandhan
What happened this week?
On 9 November, Ukraine’s Military Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi highlighted that the situation in the Zaporizhzhia region had “significantly worsened,” with Russian forces taking advantage of their numerical strength to capture three settlements near Oleksandrivka and Huliapole. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed some of these advances with geolocated footage, while Russian sources reported additional, yet unverified, gains throughout the 1,000-kilometre front. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s DeepState military blog mentioned the emergence of “grey zones” where control is uncertain.
Over the weekend, Russia launched a massive offensive involving over 450 drones and 45 missiles, resulting in the death of at least seven people and damage to energy facilities in Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, despite most projectiles being intercepted. A second external power line to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was restored, which allows the cooling systems to function and helps prevent a potential meltdown, although the plant is still inactive.
On 10 November, the fighting in Pokrovsk, eastern Ukraine, intensified. Russian troops reportedly tightened their control over the city amidst street battles, though Ukrainian forces denied claims of being encircled and stated that reinforcements were on the way to stabilize the situation near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Ukrainian soldier Artem Karyakin noted that Russian troops were visible “in every district,” and analysts cautioned that Kyiv might be repeating past mistakes by delaying tactical withdrawals.
On the same day, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remarked that Russia’s offensive in Pokrovsk and the troop buildup near Vovchansk in Kharkiv are part of a larger strategy to showcase battlefield gains, possibly to sway US political opinions. The ISW indicated limited Russian advances aimed at bringing Kharkiv within artillery range, while Ukrainian forces claimed to have eliminated Russian soldiers attempting to raise a flag in Vovchansk. Zelenskyy stressed that Ukrainian units are still holding their ground around Pokrovsk and Dobropillia, while General Syrskyi confirmed that Russia had amassed 150,000 troops in its effort to take Pokrovsk, which is “the gateway to Donetsk.”
On 11 November, as per reports in Ukrinform, Ukraine ramped up its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, hitting oil facilities deep within Russia and in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted a major refinery in Volgograd, along with the Hvardiyska oil depot in Crimea, which disrupted fuel supply lines for Russian military operations. Additional strikes impacted Saratov and Orenburg, causing damage to the Orsk refinery.
On 12 November, Western countries reinforced their support for Ukraine. Sweden and Ukraine signed a letter of intent to work together on weapons technologies in Ukraine, potentially leading to the acquisition of up to 150 Gripen E fighter jets. Germany has increased its aid to EUR 11.5 billion for the 2026 budget, while the UK introduced new sanctions limiting services for Russian LNG exports, aligning with a wider EU ban set for January 2027.
What are the issues?
First, Russia makes advances in Zaporizhzhia while Ukraine struggles to counter. Russian forces have made some gains near Oleksandrivka and Huliapole, creating grey zones where control is unclear. The ongoing fighting, along with repeated missile and drone strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure, highlights the difficulties Ukraine faces in stabilizing this strategically important area.
Second, Pokrovsk has become a critical battleground in eastern Ukraine. With around 150,000 Russian troops concentrated nearby, the city is seen as the “gateway to Donetsk.” While street fighting is fierce, Ukrainian forces are managing to hold essential positions, rotating and resupplying troops, making it a true test of Kyiv’s tactical resilience against a focused Russian offensive.
What does it mean?
Looking ahead, the ground scenario remains unpredictable for Ukraine, with Russian troops concentrating in key cities and launching relentless drone and missile attacks. This indicates a prolonged conflict of attrition. Over the years, Ukraine has improved its targeting capabilities against Russia and Russian-occupied territory; however, the front-line gains still remain limited.
CW Column: The Conflicts in Africa
The AU's response to Trump's military threat and JNIM fuel blockade in Mali
Anu Maria Joseph
What happened this week?
Nigeria: The AU’s response to Trump’s military threat
On 12 November, the African Union responded to US President Trump’s military threat to Nigeria over his claims of a Christian genocide. African Union Commission chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf rejected Trump’s claims and stated: "What's going on in the northern part of Nigeria has nothing to do with the kind of atrocities we see in Sudan or in some part of eastern DRC.” He added: "Think twice before... making such statements. The first victims of Boko Haram are Muslims, not Christians."
Mali: JNIM fuel blockade
This week, the fuel blockade by the al-Qaeda linked jihadist group, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), crossed two months. The US has urged its citizens not to travel to the country, and France has advised its citizens to leave.
What are the issues?
Nigeria
First, Trump’s accusations, threats, and discrepancies. Trump threatened military intervention in Nigeria over the number of Christians being killed by insurgents. Beyond Islamist insurgency, Nigeria’s security issues also involve banditry and farmer-herder clashes, which are not ideologically or religiously driven. Regardless, many research groups collectively describe them as “jihadists.” The data by ACLED indicates discrepancies in Trump’s claims. It says out of 21,000 civilians killed since 2020, 317 were Christians and highlights that Muslims and Christians have been equally targeted.
Second, Africa’s collective response. Trump’s threat questions the authority under which he plans to carry out a military intervention into a sovereign democratic country. To make such a move, Trump needs consent from the respective country, a UN mandate, or domestic legislation to intervene. Meanwhile, Nigeria welcomed US assistance in fighting insurgency, but demanded respect for its sovereignty. The AU chief’s response to Trump’s claims and threats implies Africa’s collective response that such a move is unwelcome.
Mali
Third, in Mali, JNIM’s fuel blockade tactic and the objective. The JNIM launched a blockade of fuel supplies from neighbouring countries in September when the military government in Mali banned fuel sales in rural areas, an attempt to squeeze jihadists in their hideouts. Many fuel tankers and trucks from the Ivory Coast have been attacked and set on fire. Mali, a landlocked country in the Sahel, depends on neighbouring Senegal and the Ivory Coast for its fuel needs. Economic squeezing has been a major tactic group's financing since its formation. However, it was limited to illicit artisanal gold mining, illegal taxing, kidnapping, livestock theft and money laundering into the local financial system. The fuel blockade as a tactic is used to incite an economic crisis to pressure the military government and to demonstrate its capacity to shape the economic activities in the country.
Fourth, the military government's stance. The fuel blockade has pushed the government towards a defensive position. The military has been attempting to escort fuel trucks from the border to the capital and targeting JNIM hideouts with airstrikes. However, many attempts have failed amidst attacks by the militants. The government has also signed an emergency fuel supply agreement with Russia to secure refined petroleum and technical assistance for transport security.
Fifth, the economic impact. The blockade has left many parts of the country without electricity. It has increased commodity prices. Schools have been shut for weeks. The gas stations in the capital, Bamako, are filled with long queues. Emergency services, food and health care sectors, public transport, businesses and military requirements have been affected by the blockade.
What does it mean?
Nigeria
The AU’s response points out dissatisfaction with Trump’s claims and represents a collective demand from Africa to provide evidence-based accusations. The stance also indicates that any military intervention by the US is unwelcome in Africa if not invited.
Mali
The fuel blockade implies: first, JNIM’s capacity to disrupt the economic sectors in the country; second, it exposed the military government’s weak reach and capacity to quell the insurgency; third, it demonstrates the junta’s increasing reliance on Russia; fourth, increasing concerns of JNIM’s expansion, the extensive social and security impact and a major setback to public confidence on the military regime.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Restrictions on the export of chemicals used for drugs to the US, Mexico and Canada
On 10 November, China announced new export restrictions on 13 drug-making chemicals to the US, Canada, and Mexico. This includes the products used to produce fentanyl, which has killed thousands of US citizens due to overdose. This has been the central issue in US-China relations, with both leaders, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, urging to curb the sale. Trump said China would help end the fentanyl crisis, and he would ease a related tariff from 20 per cent to ten per cent. The chemicals, newly restricted by Beijing, can still be exported without a license to other countries besides the three in North America that were named in the Chinese Commerce Ministry announcement.
North Korea: Pyongyang fires ballistic missile towards the sea off its east coast
On 7 November, North Korea fired a ballistic missile towards the sea off its east coast, according to South Korea and Japan. South Korea's military predicted that the short-range ballistic missile launch came from North Korea's northwest near the Chinese border, travelling approximately 700 km. South Korean and US surveillance systems detected and tracked the projectile, sharing the data with Japan, which said the missile likely landed outside its exclusive economic zone. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi confirmed that no damage was reported. This follows several launches in recent weeks ahead of President Trump and Xi Jinping's visit to South Korea for a regional summit. This also coincided with Trump's renewed call for dialogue with Kim Jong-un, although no meeting took place. On 6 November, North Korea's foreign ministry stated that Washington was "antagonizing" it through sanctions on its officials and establishments over money laundering allegations and said it would respond. Earlier this week, during his visit, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed Washington's commitment to its security alliance with South Korea. He said the primary focus of US forces stationed there remains deterring Pyongyang, even though its military is exploring "flexibility" to address broader regional threats.
Thailand-Cambodia: Border dispute reignited over mutual claims of ceasefire violations
On 12 November, the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict flared up as both countries traded accusations of opening fire along the disputed border, threatening the current truce. On 11 November, Thailand announced the suspension of an enhanced US-brokered ceasefire agreement signed by the two countries in October. Thailand’s foreign ministry demanded an apology from Cambodia, raising accusations of laying fresh landmines that maimed a soldier on 10 November. Cambodia denied the charges and urged Thailand to comply with the October deal. Cambodia’s defence ministry stated that Thai troops opened fire near a disputed border village, leaving one civilian dead and three injured. Thailand’s army spokesperson Major General Winthai Suvaree said Cambodian soldiers initially fired shots into Thailand and that the Thai forces “fired warning shots in response, following rules of engagement.” The disputed region is claimed by Thailand to be a part of its Ban Nong Ya Kaew village in Sa Kaeo province, but Cambodia says it is part of Prey Chan village in Banteay Meanchey province. Confrontations over the region had previously escalated into a deadly conflict in July, where 48 people were killed and an estimated 300,000 were temporarily displaced.
Australia-Indonesia: Canberra and Jakarta agree on a new security treaty
On 12 November, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australia and Indonesia have agreed on a new security treaty, committing to consult each other “if either or both countries’ security is threatened.” Albanese called the treaty an expansion of prior agreements and a step toward regular security dialogue between leaders. President Prabowo stated that “our determination is to maintain the best of relationships in order to enhance and guarantee security for both of our countries.” Indonesia maintains a non-aligned foreign policy, prioritising cooperation without formal military alliances. According to Australia’s Foreign Minister, the treaty was modelled on a 1995 agreement, which was withdrawn in 1999 over East Timor, and is expected to be signed next year. Analysts note that, unlike Australia’s recent defence pact with Papua New Guinea, this treaty does not mandate joint action. However, PM Albanese could show that relations with Indonesia were back on a stable footing, while for President Prabowo, it represented “classic balancing behaviour,” reassuring Australia over any perceptions that Indonesia was moving closer toward Russia or China.
South Asia
India: Blast near Red Fort kill 13 people
On 10 November, at least 13 people were killed in a car explosion near the Red Fort in Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Home Minister Amit Shah have stated that those responsible will be "brought to justice." Shat added: “All possibilities are being explored and a thorough investigation will be conducted, taking all options into account.” An official stated on 11 November that the initial investigations suggest that the blast may have been "accidentally triggered" by a hastily assembled explosive device.
Pakistan-Afghanistan: Interior Minister says Afghan nationals responsible for the two recent suicide bombings in Pakistan
On 13 November, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi stated that Afghan nationals were responsible for two recent suicide bombings in Pakistan, amid escalating tensions between the two neighbours over cross-border militancy. Addressing the parliament, Naqvi stated that both attackers had been identified as Afghans and added: "It is our major, serious concern," highlighting that Pakistan had repeatedly brought up security issues with the Taliban administration in Kabul. The Islamabad attack on 11 November killed 12 people and injured 27, while another bombing on 10 November targeted a military school in South Waziristan, killing three. On the same day, Dawn reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif accused both Afghanistan and India of involvement in recent terrorist incidents, warning of a “befitting response.” Islamabad maintains that the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups operating from Afghan territory receive alleged backing from India, reported Reuters.
The Middle East and Africa
The War in Gaza: UNICEF says Israel continues to block essential humanitarian aid from entering Gaza
On 11 November, UNICEF reported that Israel continues to block essential humanitarian items, including syringes for child vaccinations and bottles of baby formula, from entering Gaza. Despite the fragile ceasefire, UNICEF faces major challenges in delivering 1.6 million syringes and solar-powered refrigerators for vaccine storage due to customs clearance since August. "Both the syringes and the ... refrigerators are considered dual-use by Israel... yet they are urgent," said UNICEF spokesperson Ricardo Pires. UNICEF reported that 938,000 bottles of infant formula and spare parts for water trucks were denied entry. "That's nearly one million bottles that could be reaching children who have been suffering from different levels of malnutrition," Pires noted. Reuters reported that although the ceasefire aimed to facilitate a major increase in aid deliveries across the enclave, relief agencies have consistently stated that the assistance reaching Gaza is not sufficient to meet the needs of its largely displaced and malnourished population of two million.
Syria: Damascus joins international coalition to combat the Islamic State; Trump vows full support "to make Syria successful"
On 11 November, a senior Trump administration official confirmed that Syria will join the international coalition to combat the Islamic State. Syria will now be the 90th member of the global coalition aimed at eliminating the remaining elements of the Islamic State and curbing the flow of foreign militants into the Middle East. The announcement follows Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's visit to Washington on 10 November, marking the first ever Syrian presidential visit to the US. This marks the third meeting between the two leaders, following their encounter in May on the sidelines of the Gulf Cooperation Council summit and a subsequent meeting during a dinner at the UN General Assembly in September. Following the visit, the US Treasury Department announced a 180-day extension of its suspension of enforcement of the Caesar sanctions imposed on grounds of human rights abuses under the Assad regime. In an interview with Fox News, al-Sharaa described the visit as part of a "new era" of cooperation between Syria and the United States. Diplomatic relations between Syria and the United States have remained suspended since 2012. However, Washington has now agreed to allow Syria to reopen its embassy in Washington. President Trump expressed confidence in Sharaa's leadership and assured that he would "do everything we can to make Syria successful."
The War in Gaza: France to support the Palestinian Authority in drafting a constitution for a future Palestinian state
On 11 November, after meeting President Mahmoud Abbas in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron stated that France would support the Palestinian Authority in drafting a constitution for a future Palestinian state. President Macron said a joint committee would be formed and would be “responsible for working on all legal aspects: constitutional, institutional and organisational.” He added that “it will contribute to the work of developing a new constitution... and will aim to finalise all the conditions for such a State of Palestine.” France also pledged EUR 100 million in humanitarian aid to Gaza for 2025. President Abbas reaffirmed his commitment to “a culture of dialogue and peace,” envisioning “a democratic, unarmed state committed to the rule of law, transparency, justice, pluralism and the rotation of power.”
Yemen: Houthis to halt attacks in the Red Sea following Israel-Hamas ceasefire
On 11 November, Al Jazeera reported that the Houthis seem to have withdrawn from attacking Israel and ships in the Red Sea. This report follows the publishing of an undated letter online by Yusuf Hassan al-Madani, the Houthi armed forces’ chief of staff, to Hamas’s Qassam Brigades in which the former hinted at stopping attacks in light of the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The letter read: “We are closely monitoring developments and declare that if the enemy resumes its aggression against Gaza, we will return to our military operations deep inside the Zionist entity [Israel], and we will reinstate the ban on Israeli navigation in the Red and Arabian Seas.” The Houthis have not made any formal statement on the matter.
Syria: Joins US-led coalition against ISIL
On 11 November, Al Jazeera reported that right after Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa arrived in Washington for an official visit, Syrian Information Minister Hamza al-Mustafa and US officials announced that Syria had decided to join the US-led international coalition against ISIL. The coalition is aimed at preventing new members from joining ISIL and eliminating existing membership from the Middle East. Al-Mustafa described the sign-up as a “political cooperation declaration” and argued that this reflects Syria’s commitment to “combating terrorism and supporting regional stability.” He also clarified that “The agreement is political and until now contains no military components.” In a show of commitment, Syrian security forces conducted “61 raids, with 71 people arrested and explosives and weapons seized.”
Gaza: Death toll crosses 69000, 240 since ceasefire
On 8 November, Al Jazeera quoted the Ministry of Health in Gaza, which revealed that the death toll in the enclave since 7 October 2023 has crossed the 69000 mark, with a total of 69169 people killed. Out of this, 240 have been killed since the ceasefire came into effect on 10 October.
Sudan: Capital Khartoum hit by drone strikes after RSF truce offer
On 8 November, explosions were reported in Khartoum and Atbara, a day after Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) agreed to a humanitarian truce. The army-controlled government expressed scepticism, citing past ceasefire violations. The civil war, ongoing since April 2023, has killed over 150,000 and displaced 12 million. The RSF’s truce came after seizing El-Fasher, strengthening its position in Darfur. International concern is mounting over alleged atrocities committed during the RSF’s advance.
Tanzania: Over 240 citizens charged after the post-election protests
On 8 November, a Tanzanian court charged at least 240 people with treason following deadly protests over the recent election. President Samia Suluhu Hassan won 98 per cent of the vote, though opposition parties were barred from contesting. The government insists the poll was fair, but observers and rights groups dispute this. Among those charged are businesswoman Jenifer Jovin and several influencers. The accused face the death penalty, though executions are rare. Kenya has raised concerns over its nationals’ safety, as reports emerge of killings, detentions, and cross-border diplomatic strain.
Mali: France urges citizens to leave Mali amid jihadist fuel blockade
On 8 November, France advised its citizens to urgently leave Mali due to a jihadist-imposed fuel blockade disrupting daily life and security. The al-Qaeda-linked group JNIM has attacked fuel tankers, crippling supply routes into Bamako. Mali’s junta, in power since 2020, faces mounting pressure as electricity shortages and unrest escalate. With UN and French forces withdrawn, Russian mercenaries have been deployed, but large parts of the country remain under militant control. The threat continues to destabilise the region.
Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: Kremlin spokesperson Peskov says Kyiv will have to negotiate “sooner or later”; Foreign Minister Lavrov hopes Washington will avoid escalating the conflict “to a new level”
On 13 November, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine would “sooner or later” have to negotiate with Russia and that Kyiv’s position would worsen daily if it continued to reject talks. Peskov told reporters that Moscow remained open to a political and diplomatic settlement but would keep fighting “to protect its own security for the benefit of future generations.” Kyiv says that Moscow is laying unacceptable surrender terms to end the war. In an interview, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he hopes Washington would avoid steps that could “escalate the Ukraine conflict to a new level.” Lavrov said US President Donald Trump had long discussions with Russia to understand its position and “demonstrated commitment to finding a sustainable peaceful solution.” He blamed NATO’s expansion and deployment of its infrastructure close to the border for the conflict. He accused Europe of “sabotaging all peacemaking efforts” and preparing for a “major European war against Russia.”
The War in Ukraine: Moscow expresses intent to resume peace negotiations
On 12 November, Russia’s state news agency reported that Moscow is ready to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul. State official Alexei Polishchuk said that Turkish officials had repeatedly urged a resumption of the peace negotiations, and that "The Russian team is ready for this, the ball is in the Ukrainian court.” Previously, during the 23 July meeting in Istanbul, which lasted only 40 minutes, Ukraine proposed holding a meeting in August between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin later stated that Putin was open to the idea but insisted the meeting take place in Moscow, a condition Kyiv declined.
G7 Summit: Discussions to focus on Arctic security, the War in Ukraine, and peace in the Middle East
On 11 November, the latest meeting of the Group of Seven foreign ministers began in Canada with Foreign Minister Anita Anand stating that discussions would centre on Arctic security, the War in Ukraine, and peace in the Middle East. Pointing to the "geopolitical volatility" shaping current global affairs, she called her US counterpart Marco Rubio as "a very constructive member" of the G7 and appreciated US efforts toward securing peace in the Middle East. Anand noted the need for focused dialogues on the "long path forward" to peace in both Ukraine and the Middle East. "Canada and the G7 will be looking at how best to support the people of Ukraine via the energy infrastructure, food supply and longer-term reconstruction," she added.
The US and Venezuela: The US Senate blocks a resolution aimed at preventing Trump's offensive against Venezuela without congressional approval
On 7 November, Republican Senators blocked a resolution that prohibits President Donald Trump from attacking Venezuela without congressional authorization. The move came a day after administration officials informed lawmakers that Washington had no current plans for strikes on Venezuelan territory. The Senate voted 51–49, mostly along party lines, against advancing the war powers resolution for consideration. Only two Republican senators joined Democrats in supporting the measure. The administration stated that the US forces in the Caribbean have launched at least 16 strikes against vessels off Venezuela, killing more than 65 people. The administration claimed that those targeted were "narco-terrorists" involved in drug trafficking that endangered American lives. Still, it has neither provided evidence nor publicly clarified the legal basis for attacking the vessels instead of intercepting them and apprehending their crews. The bipartisan resolution introduced by Democrats Tim Kaine of Virginia and Adam Schiff of California, and Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, was prompted by fears that Trump's prolonged campaign in the Caribbean will culminate in an attack on Venezuela itself. Trump had previously hinted at possibilities of such an attack, including mentions of covert CIA operations in Venezuela. Following the vote, Senators Tim Kaine and Adam Schiff told reporters they were considering alternative means to reintroduce a similar resolution. Previously, in October, the Senate had blocked another resolution to halt the boat strikes, with a 51–48 vote largely along party lines.
Climate change: COP30 climate summit demands accountability and action from high-emitting states
On 10 November, leaders from climate-affected nations urged action at the COP30 summit in Brazil, highlighting the disproportionate impact of emissions from wealthier countries. Held near the Amazon rainforest, the conference emphasised deforestation reversal and fossil fuel phase-out. Brazil proposed a global carbon market, while developing nations criticised the unmet $300bn climate aid pledge and called for USD 1.3 trillion in support. President Lula da Silva called for concrete commitments. The summit reflects growing pressure on rich nations to fund climate resilience and uphold equity in global environmental governance.
About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.
