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Padmashree Anandhan
14 November 2025 |
What happened this week?
On 9 November, Ukraine’s Military Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi highlighted that the situation in the Zaporizhzhia region had “significantly worsened,” with Russian forces taking advantage of their numerical strength to capture three settlements near Oleksandrivka and Huliapole. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed some of these advances with geolocated footage, while Russian sources reported additional, yet unverified, gains throughout the 1,000-kilometre front. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s DeepState military blog mentioned the emergence of “grey zones” where control is uncertain.
Over the weekend, Russia launched a massive offensive involving over 450 drones and 45 missiles, resulting in the death of at least seven people and damage to energy facilities in Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, despite most projectiles being intercepted. A second external power line to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was restored, which allows the cooling systems to function and helps prevent a potential meltdown, although the plant is still inactive.
On 10 November, the fighting in Pokrovsk, eastern Ukraine, intensified. Russian troops reportedly tightened their control over the city amidst street battles, though Ukrainian forces denied claims of being encircled and stated that reinforcements were on the way to stabilize the situation near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Ukrainian soldier Artem Karyakin noted that Russian troops were visible “in every district,” and analysts cautioned that Kyiv might be repeating past mistakes by delaying tactical withdrawals.
On the same day, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remarked that Russia’s offensive in Pokrovsk and the troop buildup near Vovchansk in Kharkiv are part of a larger strategy to showcase battlefield gains, possibly to sway US political opinions. The ISW indicated limited Russian advances aimed at bringing Kharkiv within artillery range, while Ukrainian forces claimed to have eliminated Russian soldiers attempting to raise a flag in Vovchansk. Zelenskyy stressed that Ukrainian units are still holding their ground around Pokrovsk and Dobropillia, while General Syrskyi confirmed that Russia had amassed 150,000 troops in its effort to take Pokrovsk, which is “the gateway to Donetsk.”
On 11 November, as per reports in Ukrinform, Ukraine ramped up its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, hitting oil facilities deep within Russia and in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted a major refinery in Volgograd, along with the Hvardiyska oil depot in Crimea, which disrupted fuel supply lines for Russian military operations. Additional strikes impacted Saratov and Orenburg, causing damage to the Orsk refinery.
On 12 November, Western countries reinforced their support for Ukraine. Sweden and Ukraine signed a letter of intent to work together on weapons technologies in Ukraine, potentially leading to the acquisition of up to 150 Gripen E fighter jets. Germany has increased its aid to EUR 11.5 billion for the 2026 budget, while the UK introduced new sanctions limiting services for Russian LNG exports, aligning with a wider EU ban set for January 2027.
What are the issues?
First, Russia makes advances in Zaporizhzhia while Ukraine struggles to counter. Russian forces have made some gains near Oleksandrivka and Huliapole, creating grey zones where control is unclear. The ongoing fighting, along with repeated missile and drone strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure, highlights the difficulties Ukraine faces in stabilizing this strategically important area.
Second, Pokrovsk has become a critical battleground in eastern Ukraine. With around 150,000 Russian troops concentrated nearby, the city is seen as the “gateway to Donetsk.” While street fighting is fierce, Ukrainian forces are managing to hold essential positions, rotating and resupplying troops, making it a true test of Kyiv’s tactical resilience against a focused Russian offensive.
What does it mean?
Looking ahead, the ground scenario remains unpredictable for Ukraine, with Russian troops concentrating in key cities and launching relentless drone and missile attacks. This indicates a prolonged conflict of attrition. Over the years, Ukraine has improved its targeting capabilities against Russia and Russian-occupied territory; however, the front-line gains still remain limited.
About the author
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS.
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