CW Note

Photo Source: AP
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1840
CW Note
The War in Gaza and the 20-point peace plan: An audit of phase one and the pivot to phase two

  Brighty Ann Sarah and Preetha R
8 November 2025

In the news
On 6 November, the US shared the draft resolution on the implementation of President Trump's peace plan for Gaza with Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE, along with the 10 Security Council members.

On 5 November, Turkey's MIT intelligence agency chief met Hamas' negotiating team head Khalil Al-Hayya and discussed the path to be followed in implementing the next phases of the Gaza ceasefire plan, Turkish security sources said.

On the same day, Israel received the remains of another hostage from Gaza, stated the prime minister's office. 

On 2 November, Reuters reported that foreign ministers of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Pakistan and Indonesia are set to join the meeting in Istanbul on ceasefire developments and the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

On 31 October, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that foreign ministers of certain Muslim countries will convene in Istanbul on 3 November to discuss the next steps on the Gaza ceasefire. "The topics being discussed currently are how to proceed to the second stage, the stability force," he added.

Issues at large
First, an audit of phase one. Under the ceasefire, Hamas agreed to release all living hostages in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. The agreement also required Hamas to transfer the remains of 28 deceased hostages in return for 360 Palestinian militants killed during the conflict. Since the US-backed ceasefire took effect, Hamas has released 20 living hostages and returned the remains of 18 others. Israel has accused Hamas of delaying the remaining transfers, while Hamas maintains that locating and recovering all remains requires time. The disagreement over the recovery and handover of bodies remains a key challenge in implementing the broader 20-point peace plan. 

On the humanitarian front, nearly a month into the ceasefire, aid flows remain far below commitments, with the World Food Programme reporting that only half the required food deliveries have entered. Gaza’s local administration says that only about 145 trucks actually reach their destinations due to Israeli restrictions, as opposed to 600 trucks of the average daily supply stated in the ceasefire. Israel maintains it is meeting its ceasefire obligations, while accusing Hamas of diverting supplies, a claim the group denies. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), food access has modestly improved since the deal, with half of families now eating two meals a day. Civilians living in tents in southern Gaza say that tents have completely worn out and fear they will not last the winter, as per reports from Reuters. With winter approaching, inadequate shelter, flooding risks, and disease from uncollected waste add to the humanitarian challenges in Gaza. 

Second, the pivot to phase two. According to the reports suggest that the draft resolution circulated by the US proposes a two-year international force in Gaza, extendable beyond 2027. The draft resolution will be the basis for negotiations over the coming days between UN Security Council members. The draft grants the US and partner states broad authority to govern and secure Gaza through the international stabilization force (ISF), authorized to use "all necessary measures.” This operating alongside a Gaza “Board of Peace” chaired by President Trump, would secure Gaza’s borders with Israel and Egypt, protect civilians and aid corridors, train a new Palestinian police force, and oversee Gaza’s demilitarization, including dismantling Hamas’ military infrastructure if it resists disarmament. The force would also support transitional governance as Israel withdraws and the Palestinian Authority prepares for longer-term control. Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE are reportedly "showing clear regional support.” That said, the resolution's adoption relies on nine favourable votes without vetoes from permanent members like Russia or China.

Third, regional efforts to advance the peace process. The Istanbul ministerial meeting reflects efforts to transition the US-brokered truce into a sustainable framework. According to sources from Turkey’s foreign ministry, Minister Hakan Fidan was expected to emphasize "coordinated action by Muslim countries for the ceasefire to evolve into a lasting peace," and point to Israel for "making excuses" to undermine the deal and for insufficient humanitarian aid flows. It hints that these countries, which earlier joined President Trump on the UNGA sidelines to back the 20-point plan, are now focusing on the second phase that looks at establishing a stability force to oversee Gaza's security and administration by Palestinians. This regional alignment gains further momentum with the US sharing its draft UNSC resolution. In parallel, Turkey's engagement, as seen in the recent meeting between its intelligence chief and Hamas negotiator Khalil Al-Hayya, highlights Ankara's mediator role, in spite of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent hints at opposition to any Turkish security presence in Gaza. These efforts come as the ceasefire, effective since 10 October, faces tests from sporadic violence, with Palestinian authorities reporting 236 deaths from Israeli strikes since then.  

In perspective
First, phase one reflects a basket of mixed outcomes. The partial completion of hostage exchanges, coupled with disputes over the recovery of remains, shows limited trust and operational constraints of the ceasefire. Hamas' time pleas clash with Israel's delay accusations, risking phase-two derailment. On the humanitarian front, while marginal improvements in food access show some stabilization, the continued shortfall in aid delivery, shelter crisis and upcoming winter challenges expose the current lapses.

Second, partial success and the way forward. The pursuit of the second phase of the ceasefire, despite several violations from both Israel and Hamas during the first phase, reflects a commitment towards the peace process. Unlike the previous peace negotiations that broke down under violations, the current plan overlooks the breaches as the Trump administration is keen on the establishment of the Board of Peace and asserting regional control. The active participation of Arab and Islamic leaders, led by Turkey, to sustain the momentum of the efforts further highlights the region’s collective desire to move beyond the conflict and strive for lasting peace.

Third, the deployment of the ISF as an enforcement authority to oversee Gaza’s demilitarization, including the “permanent decommissioning” of armed groups like Hamas, risks disrupting the fragile peace and provoking renewed aggression. Additionally, the proposed Board of Peace emerges as an external administrative body without a tangible local administrative framework, leaves the broader question of Palestinian statehood uncertain. 

About the author
Bright Ann Sarah and Preetha R are postgraduate students at Stella Maris College, Chennai

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan