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Anu Maria Joseph
21 November 2025 |
What happened this week?
1. Sudan
On 14 November, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, called for international action to block weapon supply to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.
On the same day, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution calling the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan to investigate the human rights atrocities in el-Fasher, North Darfur. The investigation was called to "identify where possible" suspected perpetrators and hold them "accountable."
2. Nigeria
On 17 November, the BBC reported that armed men killed a teacher and abducted 25 students from a girls' school in Kebbi, north-western Nigeria.
3. Democratic Republic of Congo
On 15 November, the M23 rebels and the government of DRC signed a framework for peace in eastern Congo, mediated by Qatar. The US Africa envoy, Massad Boulos, said that the framework covers eight protocols related to humanitarian access, return of displaced people, protection of the judiciary and prisoner exchange, among others.
What are the issues?
1. The RSF capture of el Fasher in Sudan
In October, el-Fasher, the only city in the Darfur region under the control of the SAF, was captured by the RSF. Ever since, RSF has been carrying out mass killings and human rights atrocities across the city, especially targeting the non-Arabs and other civilian resistance groups. According to the WHO, more than 450 civilians were killed in the fighting. The International Organisation of Migration says 26,000 people have fled el-Fasher.
By capturing el-Fasher from the SAF, the RSF crossed the final barrier in controlling the western states in Sudan and consolidating its parallel government. Strategically, el-Fasher is important for its connectivity and mineral routes and networks to neighbouring countries. Meanwhile, it adopted a violent approach towards non-Arabs and civilian resistance to keep the masses in control.
Finally, the allegations of external support to the RSF. The UAE is accused by the UN, the US and other international actors of supporting the RSF with weapons. Amnesty International claimed that weapons used in the civil war have been manufactured in Serbia, Russia, China, Turkey, Yemen and the UAE. According to the UN, they are smuggled via the UAE through Chad and then to Darfur. Meanwhile, the UAE has denied the allegations.
2. The record kidnapping in Nigeria
Nigeria's record kidnappings: Perpetrators, targets, demands and responses. Ransom kidnappings are common in the Northeast and Northwest states of Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno, Niger and Kebbi. With less state control, the majority of the areas in these states are controlled by bandits, insurgents and separatist groups. Ever since the Boko Haram kidnapping incident in Chibok, Borno state, in 2014, the country has seen multiple kidnapping incidents. According to a report by Save the Children, over 1,680 students were kidnapped from Nigerian schools between 2014 and 2022. The latest incident was the March 2024, when 200 IDPs were kidnapped from Borno state.
Imitating Boko Haram, local armed men, widely known as 'Bandits' have been carrying out mass abductions on motorcycles. Unlike the Boko Haram and ISAWP, Bandits kidnap people for ransom and are not driven by any ideologies. The targets are predominantly schools, IDP camps, girls, women and children. Paying ransoms was criminalised in 2022 by the Nigerian government, but rarely effective. The government policies and the military have been inefficient in addressing the issue.
3. The persisting challenges to the peace efforts in the DRC
The peace efforts in DRC are challenging mainly because of four reasons. First, the conflict is deeply rooted in the historical displacement of ethnic groups, the Rwandan genocide, the Congo Wars and the subsequent rise of hundreds of armed groups. No peace initiatives are likely to bring a sustainable peace in eastern Congo until those issues are addressed. Second, despite signing a comprehensive peace deal in July, mediated by the US, neither the Rwandan forces have withdrawn from the region, nor has the DRC stopped supporting FDLR. Third, Goma and Bukavu continue to be under M23 rebels' control, and there are multiple instances of ceasefire violations, implying that the provisions of the Doha ceasefire between M23 and DRC are still on hold.
What does it mean?
In Sudan, the abundant weapon supply has prolonged the war. International responses, calls and arms embargo have not made any meaningful impact. In addition, the late and little international response to the continuing violence and the atrocities el-Fasher implies that the violence and the humanitarian impact are likely to worsen.
In Nigeria, the motivations behind the kidnapping and targeting of schools and girls remain largely unclear. Trump recently announced a military threat against the country over targeted attacks on Christians. Given the internal ignorance of the issue, bandits/insurgents/separatists are likely to take advantage of the recent international attention to Nigeria’s security issues, implying that similar ransom kidnapping incidents are likely to occur during the immediate weeks.
In DRC, a stalled comprehensive peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, and a volatile ceasefire between the M23 and the DRC, add to the persisting challenges, indicating that the ongoing peace efforts are highly likely to collapse in the coming months.
About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.
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