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CWA # 1857
Conflict Weekly
Debate on Trump's Peace Plan in Ukraine | Israeli Attacks on Hezbollah and Sectarian Violence in Syria | A Coup in Guinea-Bissau and the US Ceasefire Proposal in Sudan
Conflict Weekly #309, 27 November 2025, Vol 6, No. 48

  IPRI Team
27 November 2025

Conflict Weekly #309, 27 November 2025, Vol 6, No. 48
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Padmashree Anandhan, Brighty Ann Sarah and Anu Maria Joseph

CW Column: The War in Ukraine This Week
A weighed-down peace plan, a missing European stance and Russia’s new demands
Padmashree Anandhan

What happened this week?
On 27 November, at a security conference in Kyrgyzstan, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the US-proposed 28-point peace plan. He said: “Overall, we agree that this could be used as a basis for future agreements.” However, he called signing the deal under the current leadership “pointless” as presidential elections have not been held. Putin stated that Russia will stop its operations if Ukraine exit their occupied areas. He added: “And if they don’t, we will make them,” indicating the increasing number of Russian troops.

On 27 November, US President's envoy Steve Witkoff faced sharp criticism from several congressional Republicans regarding his approach to a proposed peace plan for Ukraine. Senator Roger Wicker, the Republican chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said: “This so-called ‘peace plan’ has real problems, and I’m really sceptical it will lead to peace.” 

On the same day, the Institute for the Study of War reported that in 2025, Russian forces had taken control of an average of 467 square kilometres (about 180 square miles) each month. According to the report, Moscow’s troops are fighting intensely across four crucial settlements in the Donetsk region: Lyman, Siversk, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk. Losing these settlements would weaken Ukraine’s defences and supply lines, risking the settlements, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

On the same day, the European Commission president raised concerns that Russia shows “no signs of true willingness to end the conflict.” She emphasised: “If we legitimise and formalise the undermining of borders today, we’re opening the door to more wars tomorrow, and we cannot allow that to happen.” 

On 26 November, US President Donald Trump claimed that his plan to resolve the war in Ukraine has been “fine-tuned,” and he’s sending envoy Witkoff to meet Putin, along with Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who will meet Ukrainian officials. He said: “Looking at the situation, it seems to be going in one direction.” He added: “I look forward to hopefully meeting with President Zelenskyy and President Putin soon, but ONLY when the deal to end this war is FINAL or close to it.”

On 26 November, Russian forces conducted a mass drone attack on Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city in Ukraine, injuring 12 people and severely damaging buildings and vehicles. This strike comes after a missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure a day earlier, which resulted in seven deaths and 21 injuries in Kyiv.

On the same date, leaders from the UK, France, and Germany, following their “coalition of the willing,” voiced support for Trump’s efforts to end the war. They emphasised that any solution must fully involve Ukraine. They jointly stated: “This remains one of the fundamental principles for maintaining stability and peace in Europe and beyond.” 

On 24 November, Europeans submitted a modified version of the US peace plan for Ukraine that adjusts proposed limits on Kyiv’s armed forces and territorial concessions. The alternative document, prepared, calls for capping Ukraine's military at 800,000 instead of the 600,000 proposed by the US.

On 23 November 23, France’s President Emmanuel Macron said: “We know that if there’s no deterrence, the Russians will return and break their promises.” 

What are the issues?
1. Ukraine faces pressure to accept the proposal
Ukraine’s stance on the US-backed peace plan is complex, as Ukraine continues to stress its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Despite Ukraine taking part in discussions to keep Russia away from placing extreme demands, Russia remains determined to make Ukraine give up territory and limit its defence. Ukraine sees making deals under pressure as risky, because it goes against the international norm that borders should not be changed through force. This puts them in a tough spot as they can neither walk away nor accept the deal. 

2. Push for the deal by the US
The negotiations led by Witkoff are suspected to have involved some Russian input. This has brought back significant backlash within Washington and shaken the confidence of US allies. There’s a growing concern that the diplomatic pace is becoming more disconnected from the realities on the ground, which raises concern that the drive for a deal may outdo the quest for a long-lasting peace.

3. Europe’s struggle to assert influence
Europe has very limited influence in this negotiation process, even though the war’s outcome directly impacts them. European leaders have showcased a strong stance against several key elements of the US draft, cautioning that endorsing territorial grabs could destabilise the continent. European countries suggest higher troop caps for Ukraine and oppose forced territorial concessions. They insist that peace should be dictated by Ukraine; their fragmented influence highlights a broader issue of being sidelined in discussions that could define its security landscape.

4. Russia keeps steady on the ground and table
Russian forces have been capturing territory more swiftly in recent weeks and ramping up attacks on military, energy and civilian targets across Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. These aim to weaken Ukraine’s defence capabilities, communication and logistics while keeping rigid in the negotiations. The dual push shows how Russia sees time and pressure as advantages.

CW Column: The War in Gaza
Israel’s escalating attack on Hezbollah and Syria’s deepening sectarian violence
Brighty Ann Sarah

What happened this week?
1. Lebanon
On 21 November, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun expressed intent to engage in peace negotiations with Israel following Israel’s intensified attacks on alleged Hezbollah outfits in south Lebanon. He stated that “The Lebanese state is ready to negotiate – under UN, US or joint international sponsorship – any agreement that would establish a framework for a permanent end to transborder aggressions.” 

On 23 November, Hezbollah's chief of staff, Ali Tabtabai and four other members were killed in an Israeli strike on a southern suburb of Beirut. Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar accused Israel of again violating the ceasefire. “Every attack on Lebanon is a crossing of a red line, and this aggression is inherent in the entity that targets Lebanon’s dignity, sovereignty and the security of its citizens,” he said. 

On 25 November, the UN human rights office stated that at least 127 Lebanese civilians have been killed by Israeli strikes since the November 2024 ceasefire was implemented, and called for an investigation into the violations. 

On 28 November, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah head, stated that it retained the right to respond to Israel’s killing of Tabtabai, and that it would “set the timing” for any retaliation. On the same day,  Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the Lebanese army's efforts to seize Hezbollah weapons in south Lebanon were "inadequate," emphasising that "Hezbollah continues to manipulate them and work covertly to maintain its arsenal.”

2. Syria
On 23 November, a Sunni Bedouin couple was found murdered in the southern Homs town of Zaydal, with the woman's body partially burned and sectarian graffiti at the scene implicating Alawites. In response to the deaths, armed Bedouins targeted Alawite neighbourhoods with severe violence, firing indiscriminately, vandalising shops, and setting fire to homes and vehicles.

On 24 November, Ghazal Ghazal, the head of Syria’s Supreme Alawite Islamic Council, called on the community to “protest peacefully” against the government, condemning the administration as “exclusionary," calling for unified protests across Alawite-populated areas. 

On 25 November, in one of the largest protests since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad, who hails from the community, the Alawites took to the streets of Latakia, the heartland of the Alawite community, demanding an end to the “ethnic cleansing” of Alawites, an effective federal governance, minority rights, and the release of detained former Alawite military personnel. Severe clashes broke out between the protesters and security forces; reports also suggested the involvement of Sunni militias in the crackdown. 

What are the issues?
1. Lebanon: Escalating ceasefire violations and the threat of retaliation 
The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement was brokered by France and the US on 27 November 2024, aiming to end the severe hostilities that emerged from Hezbollah’s October 2023 airstrike on Israel. The ceasefire calls for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory to points behind an imaginary ‘Blue Line,’ in the south of the country, while Hezbollah withdraws behind the Litani river in the north. It also calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah. It further called for the deployment of only the Lebanese Armed Forces, supported by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), in the zone south of the Litani, with no armed presence or military infrastructure permitted there except for the LAF and UN peacekeepers. However, Israeli troops continue to occupy five locations within the territory, while Hezbollah claims that the disarmament only applies to areas beyond the Litani River, rejecting further disarmament without the complete withdrawal of the Israeli forces. UNIFIL has recorded that over the year since the ceasefire was established, Israel has committed more than 7,500 air violations and nearly 2,500 ground violations north of the Blue Line, reflecting “total disregard of the ceasefire agreement.” This demonstrates the near-collapse of the agreement and highlights how sustained Israeli attacks to coerce Hezbollah’s disarmament have instead reinforced the group’s determination to counter Israeli aggression.

Despite the state's attempts to respond assertively to Hezbollah’s disarmament, Israel’s non-compliance and persistent ceasefire violations have fuelled the feud. The killing of Hezbollah’s top military commander raises the risk of a significant retaliatory strike, potentially pushing the region toward renewed conflict and instability.  Amidst the state’s phased attempts to disarm and dismantle Hezbollah, the increasing pressure from the US and Israel undermines the efforts and strains the relationship between the state and Hezbollah, given that the group functions not only as a militant organisation, but also as a prominent political party with parliamentary representation.

2. Syria: The persisting sectarian clashes and the government’s inability to curb the violence
Historically, the Sunni Alawite community had long been marginalised in the Sunni-majority in Syria, until Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite, seized power in 1970. Hafez, and later his son Bashar, derived their major support from the community and weaponised the sect, making them central to the security and administrative apparatus. For over five decades, the Assad regime’s dictatorial rule hinged on the Alawite support, portraying the community as complicit in the regime’s atrocities, particularly in the violence against the Sunni population. When Bashar al-Assad fell in December 2024 and a Sunni-led government under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda that is now under the Sunni Islamist political banner, took power, long-suppressed grievances exploded into revenge and retaliation against the Alawites, who most Sunnis view as inseparable from the former regime’s crimes. The escalating crisis is a response to the Assad regime's rule of terror, which perpetuates a cycle of violence among the communities. 

The al-Sharaa government, since taking power in December 2024, has pledged inclusivity and minority protections but has fundamentally failed to dismantle the deep-rooted sectarian divides inherited from the Assad era, allowing cycles of revenge to persist. The incumbent government has failed to provide justice for the violence against the Alawites, including a massacre in March 2025. Reports of these atrocities remain unpublished or dismissed as "revenge-based" rather than sectarian, shielding HTS-aligned militias and hardline Sunni elements from prosecution, and this impunity is a major fuel to the ongoing violence. There is also a lack of minority representation in the Sunni-dominated administration that perpetuates the majoritarian bias and lack of safeguards for the minorities, including the Alawites, Druze, and Kurds.

What does it mean?
First, Israel maintains that Hezbollah has been attempting to regroup and argues that the Lebanese government’s efforts to disarm the group are ineffective, thus remaining persistent in its attacks to ensure that the militant group remains militarily weakened. Israel’s pursuit of top military leadership indicates an effort to undermine its core command, and while such attacks could trigger retaliation, a full-scale fight may not work in Hezbollah’s favour right now, given how much its capabilities have been worn down over the past year.

Second, the intensifying violence against the minorities poses a severe threat to the country’s internal stability. The Bashaar regime's inability to prevent escalation, enforce accountability, and address root sectarian grievances risks a downward spiral, intensified by the regime turning a blind eye to the violence of the Sunni militias. The protesters' demands for federalism also threaten the regime’s centralised control and could lead to a more severe crackdown against the minorities. 

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa This Week
A Coup in Guinea-Bissau and the US Ceasefire Proposal in Sudan
Anu Maria Joseph

What happened this week?
1. Guinea-Bissau
On 26 November, Guinea-Bissau’s military arrested President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, seized control of the country, and suspended the electoral process. The military said that the move aims to block a plot by unnamed politicians who had "the support of a well-known drug baron" to destabilise the country.

On the same day, the AU and the ECOWAS expressed "deep concern with the announcement of a coup d'état by the armed forces." They jointly stated: "It is regrettable that this announcement came after a time when the mission had just concluded a meeting with the two leading presidential candidates, who assured us of their willingness to accept the will of the people."

On 23 November, Guinea-Bissau conducted presidential elections, and on 24 November, incumbent president Embalo and opposition candidate Fernado Dias claimed election victory before the official results were announced.

2. Sudan
On 25 November, advisor to US President Donald Trump on African and Arab affairs, Massad Boulos, said that the US presented a comprehensive ceasefire plan to the SAF and the RSF; however, it was rejected by both sides. Boulos stated: "We have presented a strong text for a truce, but neither SAF nor RSF have formally accepted the text we put for war." The US proposed the ceasefire on behalf of the Quad group, which includes the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

On 24 November, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced a unilateral humanitarian truce.

On 23 November, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, called the US proposal "worst yet" and unacceptable. He called the Quad group "biased" as long as the UAE is a member, adding that the proposal "eliminates the armed forces, dissolves security agencies and keeps the militia where they are."

What are the issues?
1. Guinea-Bissau: Persistent political instability, disputed elections and another addition to Africa’s coup belt
Since independence in 1974, Guinea-Bissau, a former Portuguese colony, has faced persistent political instability, driven by four military coups, weak institutions and rivalry between political elites. In 1980, President Luis Cabral was overthrown by Prime Minister Nino Vieira in a coup. In 1998, tensions within the military led to a year-long civil war and the end of Vieira's regime. 2003 and 2012 saw two other military coups. Embalo came to power in 2019 and dissolved the parliament twice amid allegations of coup attempts.

Embalo's government expired in February 2025, but extended the elections to November 2025. In October, the major opposition, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), and the coalition Pai Terra Ranka were disqualified by the Supreme Court from contesting the presidential elections. The Court cited the late document submission for disqualification. Subsequently, the opposition parties extended support to Fernando's candidacy against Embalo. The controversial election victory claims and the subsequent political tensions created conditions conducive to a military coup.

Since 2020, West Africa has witnessed five military coups. Mali in August 2020; Burkina Faso in January 2022 and September 2022; Niger in July 2023; Guinea in September 2022; and Gabon in August 2023. Guinea-Bissau is the sixth one. 

2. Sudan: Continuing fighting, failed ceasefires, international pressure and tensions with the Quad
Since the war began in April 2023, there have been more than nine rounds of ceasefire mediations led by the US, Saudi Arabia, the AU and neighbouring countries, including Egypt. However, all the attempts failed. The SAF, internationally considered the legitimate government, seeks a complete victory. It demands the RSF’s withdrawal from civilian areas ahead of a truce. The RSF, a paramilitary force, has captured the western Darfur and Kordofan regions and established a parallel government. With substantial military strength and supply, both sides continue fighting with a complete disregard for ceasefires.

The recent international pressure comes following the RSF's capture of el-Fasher and the satellite reports of mass killings in the region. The RSF atrocities in el-Fasher met with widespread international condemnation. The Quad have been leading peace efforts since the beginning of the war. However, the SAF has objected to the UAE’s involvement in the mediations for its alleged weapon supply to the RSF, an accusation it has denied.

What does it mean?
In Guinea-Bissau, the coup was anticipated. The military took advantage of the institutional decay and rivalry between political elites, which peaked during the election. With the takeover, the country's constitutional democracy is suspended, and the near-term political trajectory remains unclear. Meanwhile, the expansion of the coup belt in West Africa points to unbalanced civil-military relations in the region. It also highlights how the military adopted an operational strategy and adapted to critical international responses by learning from other coup-led governments. It also implies that other unstable countries in West Africa are prone to similar military coups.

In Sudan, the Quad's ceasefire proposal came after a lull in regional and international efforts to end the war. The SAF's demand for the RSF’s withdrawal from civilian territories before a truce is far from happening. Although the RSF has agreed to a humanitarian truce, it rejected direct talks with the SAF by accusing it of being controlled by the members of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, a banned party of former leader Omar al-Bashir. This implies that although the ceasefire plan is significant, a ceasefire on the ground is unlikely. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, and Rizwana Banu

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Releases a White Paper on "Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era," emphasising No-First Use and Minimum Deterrence 
On 27 November, China released a White Paper titled "China's Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era." The White Paper contains the following five parts: Nuclear Arms Control, Missiles and Missile Defence, Biosecurity, Chemical Weapons, and Conventional Weapons.

The first part, "Nuclear Arms Control," is further divided into the following four aspects: Nuclear Policy, Nuclear Disarmament, Nuclear Non-proliferation, and Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. According to its nuclear policy, China gives a "firm commitment" to a policy of "no-first-use of nuclear weapons and a nuclear strategy of self-defence" and keeping "China's nuclear capabilities at the minimum level." This section also addresses China's nuclear safety, security, and transparency. On nuclear disarmament, the White Paper refers to China "upholding a fair and reasonable, rational and pragmatic approach to nuclear disarmament," a firm support for the "purposes and objectives" of the CTBT, and engaging in an FMCT.

The White Paper objects to the "double standards on nuclear nonproliferation and the practice of favouring geopolitical interests over the international nuclear nonproliferation regime." It considers the AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation as the "first transfer of naval nuclear propulsion reactors and weapons-grade highly enriched uranium from nuclear-weapon states to a non-nuclear-weapon state," thereby undermining the "international nuclear nonproliferation regime."

China: Beijing calls the maritime and air safety talks in Hawaii "frank and constructive"
On 22 November, the People's Liberation Army Navy announced that US and Chinese military officials concluded three days of maritime and air safety talks in Hawaii from 18 to 20 November under the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA). China's navy described the exchanges as "frank and constructive," and added that the two sides "mainly exchanged views on the current maritime and air security situation." Both countries discussed "typical cases of naval and air encounters… to help the front-line naval and air forces of China and the US interact more professionally and safely." Beijing repeated its longstanding objection and stated that China "resolutely opposes any infringement and provocation," while referring to US freedom-of-navigation operations in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. This marks only the second MMCA working-group meeting since President Trump began his second term. The two sides agreed to hold the next round in 2026.

China: Fire in Hong Kong kills 65 
On 27 November, authorities said that a huge fire that engulfed a high-rise housing complex on 26 November had killed 65 people, with more than 300 people still missing. As of 27 November evening (2000 hrs local time), the firefighters were trying to put out the fire that broke out in the Tai Po neighbourhood and reach people trapped inside the buildings. Officials said they had brought the fire in four buildings under control. The fire began at about 2:51 pm local time on 26 November at Wang Fuk Court when bamboo scaffolding, which burns very easily, outside one of the buildings, caught fire. Following this, the flames quickly spread into the building and then to the nearby towers. The buildings were also covered in green construction netting, helping the fire spread even faster. Since Monday, Hong Kong has been under a high fire alert due to persistent dry weather across the region. According to the 2021 census, nearly 40 per cent of the 4,600 people living in the buildings were 65 or older. “That’s why we see the rising number of deaths,” said Jiang Liming, a professor at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. “In the past, we’ve seen similar facade fires, but we haven’t seen fatalities because people can successfully evacuate from the building – but not from this one.” Three construction company executives have been arrested on suspicion of manslaughter, and an investigation into possible corruption has been launched.

China and Japan: Beijing takes the issue over Taiwan to the UN, states that "if Japan dares to attempt an armed intervention… it would be an act of aggression"
On 22 November, China escalated its dispute with Japan over Taiwan by formally accusing Tokyo at the United Nations of "armed intervention" threats and vowed to defend itself. In a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, China's UN Ambassador Fu Cong stated that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's previous remark amounted to "a grave violation of international law" and that "if Japan dares to attempt an armed intervention… it would be an act of aggression." PM Takaichi previously remarked that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute "a situation threatening Japan's survival." Fu added that "China will resolutely exercise its right of self-defence under the UN Charter and international law and firmly defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity." Beijing demanded Japan "retract its erroneous remarks" and "stop making provocations and crossing the line," while calling PM Takaichi's statement an open challenge to China's core interests. This is the strongest official Chinese rebuke since the dispute began two weeks ago and marks the biggest bilateral crisis between the two countries in years. Japan's Foreign Ministry rejected the accusations as "entirely unacceptable" while reaffirming its commitment to peace.

South Asia
Pakistan: IMF report reveals systemic weakness and corruption challenges across state institutions
On 20 November, the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment (GCDA) report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed persistent corruption across state institutions in Pakistan. The IMF has also demanded the immediate implementation of a 15-point reform agenda to improve transparency, fairness and integrity. The publication of the report was a precondition to the IMF’s approval of a USD 1.2 billion disbursement for Pakistan. The report stated that “Pakistan could generate between a 5 per cent to 6.5 per cent increase in GDP by implementing a package of governance reforms over the course of five years.” The GCDA noted that the country was susceptible to corruption risk generated by weaknesses in budgeting and reporting of fiscal information, and management of public financial and non-financial resources, particularly in capital spending, public procurement and the management and oversight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). It further pointed to a convoluted tax system that lacks transparency, administered by tax and customs bodies that suffer from limited capacity, weak management and inadequate oversight. It also highlighted that issues in the judicial sector, marked by organisational complexity, chronic inefficiencies, outdated legislation, and concerns about the integrity of judges and staff, undermine consistent contract enforcement and the protection of property rights. The report urged the advancement of rule-based governance by “improving access to information and strengthening the capacity of state and non-state stakeholders to participate effectively in governance and economic decision-making.”

The Middle East and Africa
The War in Gaza: Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis kill five; Hamas urges Arab-US intervention 
On 20 November, five people were killed and 18 wounded in Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. The strikes follow a previous attack in the same region where 25 people were killed in the suburbs of Zeitoun, Khan Younis, and Shejaia, areas under the control of Hamas. The strikes were launched in regions far beyond the agreed-upon imaginary "yellow line" separating the areas under Israeli and Palestinian control. The Israeli Defence Forces claimed that the strikes targeted Hamas outfits. Hamas condemned the attack and urged the US to "honor its stated commitments and exert immediate pressure on Israel to enforce the ceasefire and halt its attacks." Hamas called the attacks a dangerous escalation and urged the intervention of the Arab mediators, Turkey, and the United States, which brokered the ceasefire. Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem also accused Israel of changing markings that define areas of Israeli occupation, a violation of the agreed-upon maps. Citing the residents of the region, Reuters reported that in the Shejaia suburb in eastern Gaza City, yellow barricades marking areas still under Israel's control had been moved 100 meters westward.

Israel and Lebanon: Tel-Aviv steps up attacks on alleged Hezbollah outfits in South Lebanon 
On 20 November, according to media reports, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) carried out the airstrikes on Lebanon, in a campaign to prevent the military revival of Hezbollah in the border area. The Israeli military said it struck "weapons storage facilities belonging to Hezbollah's rocket unit", and that these were "located in the heart of the civilian population," adding that it had taken steps to mitigate harm to civilians. On 19 November, Israel issued warnings on social media revealing identities that were claimed as Hezbollah military infrastructure in South Lebanon. Israel also accused Hezbollah of attempting to rebuild capabilities in the area of another village, Beit Lif, saying it had identified Hezbollah headquarters and weapons storage facilities there. Hezbollah had denied the accusations, calling them "false claims to justify continued attacks."

Iran: Tehran must provide precise information and all access required "without delay," says IAEA 
On 20 November, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a pivotal resolution to urge Iran to provide critical details on its enriched uranium stockpile and access to nuclear sites bombed by Israel and the United States in June "without delay". The vote tallied 19 in favour, 3 (Russia, China, and Niger) against, and 12 abstentions. Five months after the airstrikes, the IAEA remains barred from inspecting key enrichment facilities, with 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity unaccounted for. This comes to a level teetering near weapons-grade and is sufficient in theory for up to 10 bombs. The US, UK, France, and Germany condemned the opacity as "long overdue" for verification and said in a statement that "Iran must resolve its safeguards issues without delay. It must provide practical cooperation through access, answers, restoration of monitoring, to enable the agency to do its job and help rebuild confidence." Tehran insisted that the program is peaceful, and Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, said that he is afraid that "the resolution will have its own consequences."

Iran: IAEA Pushes to re-engage Tehran amid rising nuclear concerns 
On 25 November, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) renewed its call for full re-engagement with Iran, with Director General Rafael Grossi stating in Manila that the agency is ready to resume cooperation "as soon as possible." His remarks come days after the IAEA's 35-member Board of Governors passed a resolution urging Iran to clarify the status of its enriched uranium stockpile and provide updated information on nuclear sites reportedly damaged in recent attacks. General Grossi stressed that despite political tensions, technical dialogue must continue, noting that the agency "cannot work based on assumptions" and needs direct access for verification. The IAEA hopes that Tehran will respond to the board's demands, enabling a return to transparency and stabilising an increasingly uncertain nuclear landscape.

Sudan: "We need peace in Sudan," says UN Secretary-General Guterres
On 24 November, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, saying, "We need peace in Sudan," called for an immediate ceasefire and unrestricted aid delivery. This follows Sudan's de facto leader, General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, rejecting the latest US-led ceasefire, calling it "the worst document yet." In a video released on 23 November, General Burhan stated that the plan dismantles the armed forces, dissolves security agencies and allows the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to remain in all the areas it currently controls. He emphasised that continuing the mediation activities on these terms would be "biased mediation". He expressed concern that the US Senior Adviser for Arab and African Affairs, Massad Boulos, could end up blocking the peace that Sudan's people want. He further accused the UAE of backing RSF. The proposal by the Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE) called for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a nine-month political process. The RSF had accepted it, but Burhan demanded the RSF's complete withdrawal from civilian areas first. The 30-month war has claimed over 40,000 lives, displaced 14 million and plunged parts of the country into famine.

Guinea-Bissau: Military seizes power and detains President Embaló; AU "unequivocally condemns the military coup d’etat"
On 26 November, military officers in Guinea-Bissau seized power and detained President Umaro Sissoco Embaló after gunfire erupted near the presidential palace in Bissau. General Denis N'Canha announced the creation of a High Military Command for the Restoration of Order, suspended the electoral process, closed borders and imposed a curfew. The soldiers claimed they acted to stop a plot by politicians “with the support of a well-known drug baron” to destabilise the country. President Embaló confirmed his ousting to France 24, saying: “I have been deposed.” Opposition candidate Fernando Dias, ex-PM Domingos Pereira, Interior Minister Botché Candé, army chief Gen Biague Na Ntan and his deputy were also detained. The takeover halted the announcement of presidential runoff results in which both Embaló and Dias had claimed victory. ECOWAS and AU observers expressed deep concern as the election was “orderly and peaceful.” The Chairperson of the African Union Commission has released an official statement saying that he "unequivocally condemns the military coup d’etat in Guinea Bissau" The country has seen at least nine coups or attempts since 1974.

Democratic Republic of Congo: Islamic State-linked militants kill 89 civilians, says UN peacekeeping mission 
On 21 November, the United Nations peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO) stated that Islamic State-affiliated ADF rebels killed 89 civilians across Lubero territory, North Kivu province, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. This happened in a week-long killing spree between 13 and 19 November 2025. The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamist group that pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in 2019, carried out multiple coordinated attacks on villages and a Catholic Church-run health centre in Byambwe. Among the 89 who were confirmed to be dead are at least 20 women and an unknown number of children. The rebels also abducted civilians and looted medical supplies. Despite ongoing joint operations by the Congo’s army (FARDC) and Uganda’s forces, the ADF continues to operate from dense forest bases it has held since the late 1990s. The group has intensified attacks throughout 2025, with previous massacres including more than 60 civilians killed at a funeral in September and 19 villagers killed in Mukondo in October. MONUSCO has called for immediate independent investigations and prosecution of the perpetrators. The surge in ADF violence coincides with separate fighting in North Kivu between the Congolese military and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group.

Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: Rejecting any major concessions, Moscow says “We will not surrender,” on core issues; Kyiv strengthens wartime economy with new IMF partnership
On 26 November, a senior Russian diplomat declared that Moscow will not agree to “big concessions” in any peace deal over Ukraine. The remarks follow a leak of a call showing US envoy Steve Witkoff had earlier advised Russia on how to frame a peace proposal to President Donald Trump, a draft that reportedly included territorial and strategic demands in Russia’s favour. Despite pressure, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and other Kremlin officials reiterated that Russia “would not surrender” on core issues and viewed any talk of major concessions as premature. The firm public stance comes just as US and Ukrainian negotiators refined a revised peace framework during recent talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Washington described the meetings as “productive,” and Kyiv said it retained key red-lines around sovereignty and prisoner releases. Russia’s rigid posture has raised doubts among European allies about the feasibility of the plan. A growing number of EU leaders warn that Moscow’s demands effectively block a fair and lasting settlement unless Kyiv and its partners reject any proposal with forced concessions. Amid the uncertain landscape, Ukraine reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a four-year, USD 8.2 billion programme aimed at stabilising its wartime economy. The IMF praised Ukraine for maintaining macroeconomic stability despite the war, while Kyiv stressed that continued financial support is essential for economic resilience and wartime recovery. The programme aims to stabilise public finances, support reconstruction, and advance structural reforms.

The War in Ukraine: Europe criticises the reported US peace plan, as unfair on Ukraine; France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot says "peace cannot be capitulation" 
On 20 November, European leaders criticised the US peace plan that would require Ukraine to make significant territorial concessions to Russia and accept limits on its future military strength. According to media reports, the proposal aims to create conditions for a ceasefire, which has been criticised in Europe as unfairly pressuring Kyiv. France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot stated that "peace cannot be capitulation," while several EU officials insisted that no plan should force Ukraine to abandon its sovereignty or territorial integrity. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Washington's push for negotiations, saying difficult choices may be "necessary" to end the war. However, he declined to confirm details of the alleged proposal. The discussions come as the front continues to intensify and winter approaches.Meanwhile, Ukraine announced that it has received 1,000 bodies from Russia, believed to be the remains of Ukrainian soldiers. Kyiv said forensic experts will begin identification procedures and return the bodies to families. The transfer marks one of the largest exchanges of remains since the full-scale war began.

The War in Ukraine: President Trump's 28-point Peace Plan wants Ukraine to give up most of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, and caps its troops; NATO not to expand further
On 21 November, major news media outlets published the 28-point peace plan that is being floated by the US. The 28-point plan includes Ukraine giving up most of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk and recognising it as a Russian territory. According to the plan, Ukraine will cap its troops at 60,000. On Russia's and NATO's further expansions, the plan expects that "Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further." On Russia and Europe, "a dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation." The plan puts a full stop to Ukraine's NATO plan and expects Kyiv to "enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO." However, on Ukraine and the EU, the plan says: "Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered."

According to a Reuters report citing its sources, the US "has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine to press it into agreeing." On the other hand, the Financial Times has reported on Europe hurrying to respond to the Trump plan. A report in the Guardian says that the German chancellor, France’s President and the UK's Prime Minister have spoken with Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and confirmed their “unwavering and full support for Ukraine on the path to a lasting and just peace."

The US: "South Africa will NOT be receiving an invitation to the 2026 G20," says President Trump
On 27 November, US President Trump stated that South Africa will not be invited to the G20 2026, claiming the government was "killing white people and randomly allowing their farms to be taken from them." He had boycotted the G20 Summit held in Johannesburg, stating that the white minority is the victim of large-scale killings and land grabs. Moreover, in a social media post, he stated that all payments and subsidies will be halted with immediate effect. South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa called the decision "regrettable" and stated that President Trump continued "to apply punitive measures against South Africa based on misinformation and distortions about our country." The instruments of the G20 Presidency are now handed over to a US embassy official at the South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation headquarters.

COP30 Climate Summit
Fossil fuels vanish from the draft deal, triggering global backlash
On 21 November, the tenth day at the COP30 UN climate summit in Belem, Brazil, negotiators released a new draft deal that removes all mention of fossil fuels, the single largest driver of global warming. Earlier versions contained three possible pathways for countries to transition away from coal, oil, and gas, but that language has now disappeared following strong opposition from major oil-producing states, reportedly led by Saudi Arabia. The move immediately triggered pushback. A coalition of countries, including the UK, issued a letter rejecting the draft, warning that they “cannot support” an agreement without a clear and equitable roadmap to phase down fossil fuel use. Diplomats at the venue suggest the removal may be a negotiating tactic intended to intensify pressure in the final days. Other core climate issues also remain undesirable. Language on deforestation, especially significant for a summit hosted in the Amazon, has been weakened, drawing criticism from civil society groups. Meanwhile, the draft calls for tripling climate finance by 2030, but does not clarify whether contributions should come mainly from richer nations, raising concerns among developing countries. Despite disruptions, including protests and a fire at the venue, COP30 has brought unprecedented participation from Indigenous groups, even as negotiations head into a tense final phase.

Tentative deal over greenhouse gas reduction and climate finance finalised as Brazil negotiates impasse over reducing reliance on fossil fuels
On 22 November, the COP30 climate talks in Brazil reached a tentative deal on action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and provide climate finance. The summit was scheduled to end on 21 November. Still, it was extended due to differences between the European Union and a few Arab countries, where the EU's demands to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels were met with resistance. The impasse was resolved after all-night negotiations led by the host nation, Brazil, reports Reuters. A draft deal revealed that the countries had agreed on steps to accelerate climate action, review related trade barriers, and triple funding for developing countries to combat extreme weather events. The European Union's climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, stated that the proposed accord was acceptable, even though the bloc would have liked more, adding that "We should support it because at least it is going in the right direction." COP30 President Andre Correa do Lago stated that, due to the lack of consensus, a side text on fossil fuels and protecting forests will be published rather than added to the official agreement. The decision to triple climate finance by 2035 will be part of the COP30 agreement. "I will announce that the Brazilian presidency will do the two 'roadmaps' because, visibly we did not have maturity to reach consensus. I believe if we do it under the presidency, we will have results," he stated.

About the authors
Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. 

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