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CWA # 1865
Conflict Weekly
Devastating floods in South and Southeast Asia, One Year of Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire, and Conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East & Africa
Conflict Weekly #310, 5 December 2025, Vol 6, No. 49

  IPRI Team
5 December 2025

Conflict Weekly #310, 5 December 2025, Vol 6, No. 49
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
 

Akriti Sharma, Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Brighty Ann Sarah and Anu Maria Joseph

Devastating floods in Southeast and South Asia: High Casualties and Multiple Challenges
Akriti Sharma

In the news
On 3 December, The Straits Times reported that 850 people were killed and 634 people went missing in heavy floods on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia. 

On 3 December, according to the Daily Mirror, the Disaster Management Centre of Sri Lanka reported that the death toll due to cyclone Ditwah and adverse weather conditions had risen to 479, with 350 people missing.

On 2 December, according to The Hindu, 181 people in Thailand were reported dead due to floods, affecting 3.9 million people.

On 30 November, Nikkei Asia reported that over 200 people were killed in the Philippines on Cebu Island due to Typhoon Kalmaegi. Thousands of people protested nationwide against fraud in the flood control project, leading to numerous arrests.

Issues at large
First, the unusual cyclone activity. The unusual cyclone activity in Asia is due to La Niña (strong winds push warm water across the Pacific towards East Asia, increasing the likelihood of storms). The recent typhoons, cyclones, and hurricanes in Southeast Asia and South Asia are also due to a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

Second, increasing compound disasters. While climate change does not create storms, it can increase their frequency and intensity. The frequency of storms in the Bay of Bengal has increased in the past 50 years. The hotter the climate becomes, the weaker the wind shear that breaks up and develops storms. Rising temperatures lead to more variable and intense monsoons. Moreover, the disasters are not happening in isolation but leading to one another. For instance, storms cause floods, which in turn trigger landslides, resulting in multiple hazards. Such compound events increase the emergency, magnify damage, and demand a long recovery.

Third, rapid urbanization and exposed vulnerable populations. Both Southeast and South Asia are densely populated regions. They have experienced unplanned rapid urban expansion, resulting in housing in low-lying areas and on coasts, encroachment on drainage systems, and increased informal settlements. Consequently, disasters result in huge human losses and are difficult to manage. Vulnerable groups are disproportionately exposed and get displaced.

Fourth, challenges of management and risk-reduction. In Indonesia, people have been accusing the authorities of their inability to provide relief as they cope with the disaster. Authorities failed to reach out to affected regions and provide relief due to the massive floods. Similarly, protests in the Philippines questioned the accountability of the flood project and accused officials of corruption. The region has poorly designed disaster-resilient infrastructure coupled with governance gaps. Flood control projects often face corruption, misallocation of funds, and delays. Additionally, while most countries do have early warning systems in place, communication is ineffective, increasing the impact.

In perspective
First, investing in resilient infrastructure and urban planning. With the likelihood of increasing extreme weather events, governments need to enhance resilient infrastructure and effective urban planning by relocating natural waterways, redesigning drainage, and constructing climate-proof bridges and roads.

Second, strengthening accountability and anti-corruption. The Philippines' protests indicate how infrastructure corruption has led to huge economic and human losses. There is a need for transparency in flood control projects. 

Third, the need for adaptation finance. The floods in Southeast Asia and South Asia reveal how unequipped developing countries are to adapt to disasters and climate impacts. Currently, climate finance is far below required levels, increasing the vulnerability factor. Countries require finance for effective early warning systems, coastal protection, flood resilient housing and infrastructure.

CW Special Commentary
One Year of Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Continuing Violations and Evolving Endgames
Rohini Reenum

27 November 2025 marked one year of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement. Although the violent conflict was between Hezbollah and Israel, the ceasefire was finalised between Israel and the Republic of Lebanon. Since the ceasefire came into effect, routine violations by Israel with varying intensity have been reported widely. Conversely, Israel has accused Hezbollah of violating the terms of the agreement and the Lebanese government of not fulfilling the agreed mandate. The Lebanese government has accused Israel of violating Lebanon’s sovereignty and called for meaningful peace negotiations. In effect, the ceasefire has been limited to a textual agreement with no meaningful engagement toward lasting peace or an end to violence.

Ceasefire: A brief background
The 2024 conflict between Hezbollah and Israel began in October 2023 following Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel. Hezbollah concurrently began cross-border attacks into Israel in solidarity with Hamas following Israel’s offensive in Gaza. Israel retaliated with force, with near-daily attacks into Lebanon, targeting what it called Hezbollah infrastructure, its members and first-rung leadership. After nearly a year of fighting, Israel invaded Southern Lebanon on 1 October 2024. Following this, France and the US brokered a ceasefire in November 2024. This ceasefire was agreed amidst a weakened Hezbollah following the targeted assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, his successor Hashem Safieddine and a pager attack to dismantle its communications. According to Hezbollah, around 500 of its fighters had been killed by September 2024.

Additionally, this conflict led to mass displacements both in Lebanon (886,000) and Israel (60,000) and left hundreds of people dead, predominantly on the Lebanese side. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, by November 2024, 3,768 people had been killed in Lebanon and 15,699 injured. 45 Israeli civilians and 73 soldiers were killed by the time of the ceasefire. A World Bank report stated the economic cost of the War in Lebanon alone was USD 2.8 billion.

The ceasefire agreement - “Announcement of a Cessation of Hostilities and Related Commitments on Enhanced Security Arrangements and Toward the Implementation of UNSCR 1701,” explicitly mentions that both Israel and Lebanon are looking for a “a sustainable end to the current escalation of hostilities across the Blue Line and are each prepared to take steps to promote conditions for a permanent and comprehensive solution.” The agreement recognises the “importance of the UNSCR 1701 to achieving lasting peace and security and commit to taking steps towards its full implementation, without violation.” It also calls for the implementation of other pre-existing UN resolutions on the matter.

The agreement called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, mandated the Lebanese government to prevent any attacks on Israel by armed groups from its territory and banned Israel from carrying out any attacks in Lebanon. The agreement also prevented the “re-establishment and rearmament of non-state armed groups in Lebanon.” The agreement further mandated that only the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and Lebanese security forces and installations are allowed in the Southern Litani Area. Both Hezbollah and Israeli forces were to withdraw from this area within 60 days of the ceasefire. Hezbollah was to dismantle any of its remaining military infrastructure in this area. Additionally, both parties agreed to indirect negotiations under the aegis of the UN with the US as a facilitator.

Four Major Issues
First, the ceasefire violations. Both sides have accused each other of ceasefire violations. The UNIFIL has recorded more than 10,000 air and ground violations by Israel. Israel argued that Hezbollah is regrouping and rearming in violation of the ceasefire and that its attacks are in self-defence. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has refused to disarm until Israel ends its attacks. This has created a tit-for-tat situation that has jeopardized the fragile agreement. The agreement states that none of the stated commitments “preclude either Israel or Lebanon from exercising their inherent right of self-defence, consistent with international law.” This clause gives both parties de facto justification to violate the ceasefire under the pretext of self-defence. Israel has also refused to withdraw its security forces, arguing that Lebanese forces were being deployed slowly, which allowed Hezbollah to regroup and that the group was violating the agreement by smuggling weapons.

Second, Israel’s rationale and endgame. Despite its weakening, for Israel, Hezbollah and its regrouping remain a threat on its northern border. Since its formation, mainly as a response to the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon during the Lebanese Civil War, Hezbollah’s presence has kept the northern border of Israel restive. Israel has been unable to achieve a decisive victory until now. Israel views this moment as opportune to dismantle the group, even if it means violating the ceasefire. Additionally, Hezbollah’s loss of active support by its traditional partners, such as Syria and Iran, has lent urgency to Israeli actions. With Hamas decimated in Gaza and Hezbollah weakened, Israel wants to eliminate the threat posed by the axis of resistance once and for all.

Third, Lebanon’s Hezbollah conundrum. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is a political party with political representation and popular support, especially in the south and among Shia populations. Since the Lebanese Civil War, it has been the face of resistance against Israel. The Lebanese government has, despite efforts, not been able to disarm Hezbollah. The incumbent Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, came to power promising a “state monopoly on arms,” which in effect meant disarming Hezbollah. The government fears a domestic backlash and resurgence of sectarian violence if it were to take concrete action. Given Israel’s past interventions in Lebanon and the state’s incapacity to act against its aggressive neighbour, the Lebanese government views Hezbollah as a deterrent.

Fourth, Hezbollah’s endgame. The ceasefire has provided Hezbollah time and space to re-group and re-strategise, which is likely another reason it did not retaliate. Further, opposition to Israel is Hezbollah’s raison d'état for existence. A permanent peace would significantly hamper the group’s domestic popularity. If reports about rearmament are to be believed, Hezbollah’s recuperation is indicative of its desire for survival rather than achieving lasting peace for the Lebanese people.

Will the ceasefire hold?
While the agreement provided a detailed framework for achieving not just cessation of hostilities but also lasting peace, it circumvented the Israel-Hezbollah issue by making Hezbollah  Lebanon’s problem. This is despite the fact that, since Hezbollah’s formation, the Lebanese-Israeli conflict has been an Israel-Hezbollah one. A permanent ceasefire will last only if Hezbollah is contained or brought on board. One pathway could be to make Hezbollah a party to the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, even at the risk of negotiating with non-state armed groups, in the larger interest of achieving peace.

CW Column: The War in Ukraine This Week
Delay in peace talks, renewed global support to Ukraine and escalating ground tensions
Padmashree Anandhan

What happened this week?
On 4 December, US President Donald Trump stated that discussions between US representatives and Russian President Vladimir Putin were “reasonably good,” although he recognized that the road to a peace deal is opaque. He said: “It takes two to tango.” However, the talks did not result in any breakthroughs. The Kremlin confirmed that Putin agreed to some parts of the US proposal, but “compromises have not yet been found.”

On the same day, Ukraine's military announced strikes on Russian positions, including an oil depot in Russia's Tambov region, an observation post in the Black Sea, and Orion drones at the Saki airfield in occupied Crimea. Moreover, Ukrainian forces reported pushing Russian troops back to the northern edge of Kupyansk and creating a “kill zone” to block further advances. The Institute for the Study of War reported that Putin had exaggerated Russia's gains in Pokrovsk, claiming there is no solid proof that the city has completely fallen and capturing it would not lead to quick advancements.

On 4 December, Australia and New Zealand announced contributions to NATO's military equipment fund for Ukraine, becoming the first non-NATO countries to do so. Canberra pledged USD 50 million to the Priority Ukraine Requirements List and USD 43 million in equipment.

On 3 December, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov stated that after five hours of negotiations, they were “neither further nor closer” to a resolution, describing the process as slow and tough. Putin accused European leaders of hindering peace efforts and warned of retaliation against tankers supporting Ukraine.

On that same day, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed concerns that the US might lose interest in the peace talks. Zelenskyy mentioned he was waiting for signals after the meeting between Putin and Witkoff and was open to meeting Trump based on the results.

On 2 December, the White House expressed “very optimistic” views on the prospect of a peace deal, citing productive talks in Florida between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian officials.

On 1 December, Trump indicated there was a “good chance” for a deal following discussions with the Ukrainian delegation in Florida.

On 30 November, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced France was ready to impose stricter sanctions on Moscow if Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire. On the same day, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv, resulting in six deaths, numerous injuries, and temporarily cutting electricity to half the city.

What are the issues?
1. A blurry peace process
The original 28-point plan, along with its modifications, is still contested, not just by Ukraine but also by its European allies, who worry it would solidify Russian territorial gains and jeopardise long-term European security. In late November, major European powers (UK, France, Germany) collaborated on a counter-proposal that aims to uphold Ukrainian sovereignty, offer strong security guarantees for Kyiv, and avoid forced territorial concessions, such as maintaining Ukrainian control of frontlines instead of formally recognizing occupied areas. Meanwhile, Russia has outright rejected the European counter-proposal, calling it “unconstructive” and insisting that only versions acceptable to Moscow will be considered. This gap between what Kyiv and its allies see as acceptable and Moscow's demands highlights a structural deadlock.

2. Ukraine continues to struggle for strategic agency as it fights on numerous fronts
What began as Russia's 2014 occupation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donbas has now escalated into a full-scale war since 2022, characterised by shifting frontlines, attrition warfare, and an extended battle over Ukraine’s territorial future. The broadened battlefield also faces new challenges, such as harsh winter conditions and repeated infrastructure strikes that worsen civilian suffering and complicate logistics. While talks are ongoing, Ukraine must resist being cornered into a “peace” that merely solidifies its losses.

3. The war is still the ultimate bargaining chip for Russia
Russia continues to target civilians, energy grids, and crucial infrastructure as winter approaches. They’ve clearly dismissed European proposals and are leaning on military force to shape outcomes by ramping up their military presence, overwhelming Ukrainian defenses, and showing readiness for broader escalation if diplomacy does not yield concessions. It is viewed as Russia sees talks not as a way to de-escalate but as another front in their strategy, using diplomacy to solidify battlefield gains and legitimise coercion.

CW Column: The Conflicts in The Middle East
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic outreach, US push for Israel-Syria normalisation, and the dilemma of the Rafah Crossing
Brighty Ann Sarah

What happened this week?
1. Lebanon
On 3 December, Israel and Lebanon sent civilian envoys to a military committee monitoring the ceasefire between the two. The meeting was an effort towards the long-standing US demand that the two countries broaden talks beyond monitoring the 2024 ceasefire. 

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam expressed hope that broader civilian involvement would help ease tensions, noting that recent Israeli strikes were clearly escalatory. He said Lebanon was open to having the committee directly verify Israeli claims that Hezbollah is re-arming, assess the Lebanese army’s dismantling efforts, and even consider deploying French and US troops on the ground.

He also reiterated that Israel would need to withdraw troops and halt strikes and that “Hezbollah must live up to its commitments,” and fully disarm. Hezbollah refused to give up its arsenal in full, rejecting any negotiations with Israel as a "trap.” 

2. Syria
On 28 November, an Israeli raid on the Syrian suburb of Beit Jinn, near the occupied Golan Heights, killed 13 people. Israel claimed it was targeting Jamaa al-Islamiya, the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, accusing the group of planning attacks on Israeli civilians.

On 1 December, President Trump urged an Israel-Syria dialogue, stressing the need for a “strong and true” engagement that would support Syria’s development and pave the way for a “long and prosperous relationship” between the two.

On 2 December, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani and President Ahmad al-Sharaa met in Damascus with US Special Envoy Tom Barrack to discuss regional developments and shared concerns.

On the same day, Netanyahu stated that a deal with Syria is possible and signalled that Israel expects Syria to establish a demilitarised buffer zone from Damascus to Mount Hermon, and nearby areas, and that Israel will “hold these areas to ensure the security of Israel’s citizens, and that is what obligates us." 

3. Gaza
On 2 December, Hamas handed over the last two hostages in Gaza. Forensic examinations revealed that the remains did not belong to Israeli captives.

On 3 December, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), an Israeli military arm that oversees humanitarian matters, stated that Israel would reopen the Rafah crossing in coordination with Egypt and under EU supervision. Under Trump’s 20-point plan, Rafah was supposed to reopen in both directions, but Israel has kept it shut since the October ceasefire, insisting Hamas must first return all remaining hostages.

On the same day, Egypt rejected Israel’s unilateral announcement, stressing that any reopening must operate in both directions in line with the ceasefire framework, not as a one-way corridor controlled by Israel.

On 3 December, Israel carried out heavy airstrikes on al-Mawasi in Khan Younis, claiming they were in retaliation for Hamas attacks on IDF troops in Rafah.

What are the issues?
1. Lebanon: Rising fears of an Israeli military campaign and varying interpretations of the disarmament clause
Israel has repeatedly expressed frustration over the pace and efficiency of the Lebanese government in disarming Hezbollah, warning that the group may be regrouping. The recent Israeli strike that killed a senior Hezbollah commander has deepened Lebanon’s fears that Israel might abandon diplomatic negotiations with the state and pursue a unilateral military action against Hezbollah, risking a much wider conflict in the region.

A major factor of friction between Israel and Hezbollah is their conflicting interpretations of the disarmament clause in the US-France-brokered non-aggression agreement. Israel and the US interpret the clause as a nationwide requirement for Hezbollah’s full disarmament before any durable peace or Israeli withdrawal can take place. However, Hezbollah argues that the clause applies only to areas south of the Litani River and maintains that Israel must first fully withdraw and stop its airstrikes, framing disarmament as a “trap” to weaken Lebanon's defence against Israeli “aggression.”

2. Syria: The US push towards Israel-Syria rapprochement and Israel’s steadfast demands
The US has grown more open to engaging with Syria, while Israel remains hesitant about deeper cooperation. Despite the US urging an Israel-Syria rapprochement, the demands for a demilitarized buffer zone will continue to be perceived as a violation of Syria’s territorial sovereignty. Syria sees it as a violation of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement and an aggressive land grab amid their fragile post-Assad transition. Negotiations have stalled partly because Syria insists on the restoration of full sovereignty, including over the Golan Heights.

3. Gaza: The Rafah crossing dilemma and the worsening humanitarian crisis 
The Rafah crossing is critical to alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, allowing thousands of Palestinians who need medical care to leave the enclave through Egypt. According to the UN, at least 16,500 ill and injured civilians in Gaza need medical care outside of the enclave. The crossing was the sole exit point for most Gazans and was a key entry point for aid. According to Trump's 20-point plan, the Rafah crossing was meant to reopen both ways, allowing Gazans trapped in the enclave to exit and permit the return of tens of thousands of Palestinians displaced to Egypt. 

What does it mean?
In Lebanon, the state is stepping up efforts to present itself as a willing and cooperating partner in disarming Hezbollah. PM Salam’s openness to the presence of US and French troops on ground, his support for the committee’s verification role, and stern warning that Hezbollah has to comply with the terms of the ceasefire are all aimed at reassuring Israel and the Trump administration that the state is steadfast in its efforts to dismantle Hezbollah and regulate and control the supply of weapons in the country. Simultaneously, the state is trying to hold its ground by insisting that Israel also meet its obligations, most importantly, withdrawing its troops, to ensure full implementation of the ceasefire.

In Syria, the Trump administration has been gently pressuring Israel toward reconciliation, especially as US-Syria ties have warmed in recent weeks following President al-Sharaa’s visit to the White House and Syria’s entry into the Global Coalition Against ISIS. Israel, however, remains cautious and continues to insist on a demilitarized buffer zone, signalling that US pressure is not strong enough to secure a breakthrough. However, the risk of renewed tensions persists, as Syria views Israel’s demands as an encroachment on its sovereignty.

In Gaza, Israel’s persistent violations of the ceasefire and attacks on civilian dwellings exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. As the Rafah crossing remains closed, the flow of aid and medicine also sharply declines, further deepening the struggles across the enclave. 

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa This Week
The Post-Coup Developments in Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria's Escalating Kidnapping Problem and RSF’s Capture of Babnusa
Anu Maria Joseph

What happened this week?
1. Guinea-Bissau
On 2 December, Guinea-Bissau's electoral commission said that the 23 November elections cannot be completed as the coup leaders seized ballots, tally sheets and computers and destroyed servers storing the results. A senior electoral commission official, Idrissa Djalo, stated: "We do not have the material and logistic conditions to follow through with the electoral process. They confiscated the computers of all 45 staff members who were at the commission that day."

On 30 November, Guinea-Bissau's deposed President Umaro Sissoco Embalo fled to Senegal following the military coup. 

On the same day, Senegal's Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and Nigeria's former president Goodluck Jonathan said that the coup was staged by President Embalo. 

On the same day, ECOWAS leaders suspended the country from all decision-making. The bloc called the coup a "grave violation of Guinea-Bissau's constitutional order." On 1 December, the ECOWAS delegation visited Guinea-Bissau to urge the military authorities a "complete restoration of constitutional order."

2. Sudan
On 1 December, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed control of Babnusa, West Kordofan. The RSF stated that its "liberation" of Babanusa came as it repelled "a surprise attack" by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), violating the humanitarian truce. 

3. Nigeria
On 2 December, Nigeria's Minister of Defence, Mohammed Badaru Abunakar, resigned after the government came under pressure amidst the increasing mass kidnappings in the country. On 25 November, the UN Commission for Human Rights reported that at least 402 people, mostly school children, were abducted from four states, Niger, Kebbi, Kwara and Borno, since 17 November.  

On 1 December, gunmen abducted 30 people from Kogi state.

What are the issues?
1. Guinea-Bissau: The coup and regional responses
Guinea-Bissau's military declared a takeover on 26 November, stating that it had blocked a plot by unnamed politicians who had the "support of a well-known drug baron" to destabilise the country. It was the fourth military takeover since the country's independence. The military coup was announced days after the presidential elections on 23 November. The election was marked by widespread political tensions. Although President Emabalo’s term expired in February 2025, he extended the elections until November. Later, the Supreme Court disqualified two major opposition parties from running, citing the late submission of documents. Both incumbent President Embalo and opposition candidate Fernando Dias claimed victory. The opposition, several civil society groups and political leaders from neighbouring countries allege that Emabalo orchestrated the coup to block the announcement of the opposition's election victory. 

The region is divided in its response to the coup. Political leaders from Senegal and Nigeria have called it a sham. ECOWAS and the AU have condemned the takeover and called for "restoration of constitutional order." West Africa has now witnessed more than six coups. Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Gabon have not yet ended the transitional period. While previous democratic regimes were marked by exclusive policies, decaying institutions and corruption, military takeovers are being portrayed as saviours. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso left ECOWAS and formed the Sahel Alliance, which is gaining popularity among the new military-run governments. ECOWAS, the AU and the neighbouring countries fear that the Sahel Alliance in West Africa is strengthening. 

2. Sudan: Babnusa's strategic importance and another ceasefire collapse
Babnusa is the entry to the Darfur region. For the SAF to enter Darfur states and other parts of Kordofan, it has to cross Babnusa. Losing the city implies increased challenges for the SAF to recapture the Darfur states. 

The development also comes after the RSF's unilateral humanitarian ceasefire announcement and the US-led Quad's ceasefire proposal, which the army deemed "biased." The SAF described RSF's ceasefire as a political attempt to cover its "movements," continue the UAE weapon support and carry out human rights atrocities. 

3.  Nigeria: An escalation in mass kidnappings, the perpetrators and responses 
The number of kidnapping incidents increased in Nigeria recently, especially in the states of Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno, Niger and Kebbi. This escalation comes after the security issues in Nigeria gained international attention when the US President Donald Trump announced a military threat against an alleged "Christian genocide." Although it's unclear who the perpetrators are, the method has been used previously by armed men widely known as bandits and Islamist militant groups, including Boko Haram and ISWAP. The government has blamed Boko Haram and ISWAP for the kidnappings. However, several research groups, including ACLED, reject and blame bandits as perpetrators. They demand ransom, a widely used tactic to finance their activities. Often, families of the kidnapped pay the ransom, although paying ransom is banned by the Nigerian government. 

With less state control, the majority of the North-West and North-East regions of Nigeria are controlled by ISWAP, Boko Haram and bandits. Hence, government policies and forces have been ineffective and incapable of addressing security issues. 

What does it mean?
In Guinea-Bissau, despite significant regional pressure, given the cases of similarly military-run governments in West Africa, a civilian transition is highly unlikely in the near future. It would also imply the strengthening of the coup belt in West Africa and will likely bring powerful militaries in neighbouring politically unstable countries closer to a potential coup.

In Sudan, the latest development implies that, after the fall of el Fasher, the RSF has gained momentum. Now Babusa is captured, and the next nearest city likely to be under the RSF siege would be el Obied in North Kordofan. The group is several steps closer to capturing the entire Kordofan states and then Khartoum. 

In Nigeria, the mass kidnappings are increasing, the perpetrators are unknown, the motivations are unclear, domestic responses are ineffective, and while regional and international attention peaks, responses appear to be inadequate in addressing the issue.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, and Rizwana Banu

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
Taiwan: Taipei calls new law strengthening ties with Washington; China protests 
On 3 December, Reuters reported that a new US law requiring the State Department to review and update guidelines for official interactions with Taiwan every five years was signed by Donald Trump. It was a move welcomed by Taipei as an affirmation of US–Taiwan support and democratic values. Taiwan's government expressed gratitude, calling the measure a meaningful step towards closer engagement with Washington. The officials stated that the law may result in increased official contacts, even in the absence of official diplomatic relations. But Beijing reacted sharply. The law was denounced by the government of the People's Republic of China because it was considered to interfere with China's internal affairs, violate the principle of one China, and destabilise the region. The development has established a new point of conflict in the relationships among the US, China, and their neighbour, Taiwan, amplifying tension over its status and the broader strategic contest in East Asia.

Southeast Asia: Death toll due to floods passes 1,100 in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia
On 1 December, The Guardian reported that Sri Lanka and Indonesia deployed military personnel to support relief operations after severe flooding killed more than 1,100 people across Sri Lanka, Indonesia's Sumatra, Thailand and Malaysia. Experts attribute the scale of flooding partly to prolonged La Niña cycles, which intensify rainfall and increase the frequency of heavy storms and monsoons. In Indonesia, at least 604 people have died, and 464 remain missing, according to the national disaster agency. Sri Lanka has reported 366 deaths and 366 missing, while Thailand has recorded 176 deaths and Malaysia has three. The event is Indonesia's deadliest since the 2018 earthquake and tsunami that killed more than 2,000 people in Sulawesi. Sri Lanka declared a state of emergency following Cyclone Ditwah, which displaced 148,000 people. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake stated: "We are facing the largest and most challenging natural disaster in our history." The losses and damage are the most severe Sri Lanka has faced since the 2004 tsunami, which killed about 31,000 people and displaced more than one million. Although rainfall has subsided, flooding continues in low-lying areas of the capital, and authorities are preparing for a large-scale relief operation.

South Asia
Pakistan and Afghanistan: Fresh peace talks in Saudi Arabia amid a fragile ceasefire 
On 3 December, according to senior officials from both Afghanistan and Pakistan talking to Reuters, the military, intelligence, and foreign ministries of both nations held further discussions in Saudi Arabia to start a new phase of improving relations after the deadly border clashes that occurred in October. The delegations reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining the existing ceasefire, which has been in effect since prior negotiations facilitated by Qatar and Turkey ended without a comprehensive peace agreement. This Saudi Arabia-led mediation effort is the most recent attempt by the two countries to achieve more stable relations. In Pakistan, officials have stated that recent attacks, including a suicide bomber in Islamabad, have been carried out by militants based in Afghanistan, and that the Taliban has denied these allegations. The October border clashes were by far the most deadly fighting since the Taliban took control of the Afghan government in August 2021, with both sides suffering numerous fatalities. A ceasefire negotiated in Doha halted most hostilities. Still, another round of negotiations that occurred in Istanbul was derailed after Pakistan demanded a written commitment from the Taliban to stop providing support to anti-Pakistani militants, which Kabul claims it cannot provide.

Afghanistan: Washington halts visas for Afghan nationals, citing "public safety" concerns; Decisions over asylum seekers also halted until further notice
On 29 November, the US State Department announced it is "immediately" halting visa issuance to individuals travelling on Afghan passports due to concerns about "public safety." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed in a social media post that the State Department had "paused visa issuance for ALL individuals travelling on Afghan passports." "The United States has no higher priority than protecting our nation and our people," he said. The US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) director, Joseph Edlow, also announced that decisions on asylum seekers have been paused for the foreseeable future, in the interest of the "safety of the American people." "USCIS has halted all asylum decisions until we can ensure that every alien is vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible," Edlow said in a post on X. The decision follows President Trump's recent threats of barring nationals from "third-world countries," due to the alleged attack on two National Guard members by an Afghan national.

The Middle East and Africa
Iraq: Baghdad reverses decision after accidentally including Hezbollah and Houthis on asset seizure list
On 4 December, Iraq decided to excise Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis rebels from a financial sanctions roster following their erroneous addition to a government bulletin last month. The Justice Ministry's publication accidentally encompassed these Iran-supported factions among entities slated for takeover, sparking widespread confusion. Such an inclusion would have aligned with US aspirations to diminish Tehran's sway in the region, amplifying strains on the Islamic Republic.

In reality, the directive targeted solely assets tied to Islamic State and al Qaeda operatives, fulfilling a Malaysian appeal and adhering to UN Security Council Resolution 1373. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has initiated a swift probe into the oversight, vowing to penalise culprits, while underscoring Baghdad's steadfast solidarity with Lebanese and Palestinian causes amid ongoing assaults. A legislator aligned with Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah faction lambasted the administration for recklessness, deeming it a puppet regime undermining national autonomy. The Central Bank's interim deputy governor has directed the removal of the offending entries, with a revised gazette forthcoming. Neither Hezbollah nor the Houthis commented promptly.

Syria: Thirteen people killed in Israel's military raid in southern Syria 
On 28 November, Israel’s military raid in the village of Beit Jinn in southern Syria killed 13 people. Israel claimed that the raid was part of routine operations, launched to detain suspects belonging to Jama'a Islamiya, a Lebanese Sunni Islamist group, accusing them of planting improvised explosive devices and "planning future attacks on Israel, including rocket fire.” The Israeli military said six soldiers were wounded, three of them severely, by militant fire. The Israeli military claimed "armed terrorists" fired on its troops, and they responded with fire "along with aerial assistance.” Israel’s military spokesperson Avichay Adraee asserted that Tel Aviv would not allow "terrorism and terrorist elements to entrench themselves on our borders", and that three people suspected of "involvement in terrorist plots" had been arrested. Syria's foreign ministry staunchly condemned the raids, accusing Israel of committing a “full-fledged war crime.”

The War in Gaza: Israel set to open the Rafah crossing in coordination with Egypt
On 3 December, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), an Israeli military arm that oversees humanitarian matters, stated that the opening of the Rafah crossing will be coordinated with Egypt, under the supervision of the European Union mission. The opening of the Rafah crossing would allow thousands of Palestinians who need medical care to leave the enclave through Egypt. According to the UN, at least 16,500 patients in Gaza need medical care outside of the enclave. Before the war, the crossing was the sole exit point for most Gazans and was a key entry point for aid. Under Trump's 20-point plan, the Rafah crossing was meant to reopen both ways. However, since the October ceasefire, Israel has kept it closed, insisting Hamas must first comply with the deal to return all remaining hostages, alive or dead. Islamic Jihad, a Palestinian militant group allied with Hamas, has joined the search for the last remaining deceased Israeli hostages. The announcement came after forensic examinations revealed that the remains that Hamas handed over on 02 December did not belong to the previous two deceased captives, an Israeli police officer and a Thai agricultural worker.

The War in Gaza: The UN Committee on Torture states that Israel's treatment of Palestinian detainees amounts "to war crimes and crimes against humanity"
On 29 November, the United Nations Committee on Torture concluded that evidence revealed that Israel is operating a "de facto state policy of organised and widespread torture," constituting the crime of genocide under international law. The findings highlight that Tel Aviv's treatment of prisoners of war amounted "to war crimes and crimes against humanity." According to human rights groups from both Israel and Palestine, thousands of Palestinians have allegedly been detained since the war broke out on 07 October 2023. As per Israel's laws on administrative detention and on Unlawful Combatants, suspects who cannot be classed as prisoners of war can be held for long periods without access to a lawyer or family members. Several Palestinian families were unaware that they had been detained, amounting to "enforced disappearance." According to the report, Palestinians were regularly deprived of food and water, and subjected to severe beatings, attacks by dogs, electrocution, waterboarding, and sexual violence. The committee was particularly critical of Israel's reported use of the Unlawful Combatants law to detain whole groups of Palestinians, including children, pregnant women, and the elderly. Committee member Peter Vedel Kessing of Denmark stated that the committee was "deeply appalled" by the finding and extremely concerned at the lack of investigations or prosecutions into allegations of torture. The committee has called on Israel to launch independent investigations and to ensure those responsible, including senior military officers, are held accountable. Israel's ambassador, Daniel Meron, denied the allegations of torture as "disinformation," claiming that Israel was "committed to upholding its obligations in line with our moral values and principles, even in the face of the challenges posed by a terrorist organisation." 

Iran and Lebanon: Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi invites Lebanon's Foreign Minister Youssef Raji to visit Tehran to discuss bilateral relations
On 4 December, Iran's foreign ministry stated that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had invited Lebanon's Foreign Minister Youssef Raji to visit Tehran to discuss bilateral relations. According to the statement: "Araqchi, inviting his Lebanese counterpart to discuss the development of bilateral relations and review regional and international developments, expressed confidence that the Lebanese people and government will successfully overcome existing threats and challenges."  This development came a day after a separate meeting on 03 December, in which Israel and Lebanon sent civilian envoys to the military committee overseeing their 2024 US-brokered ceasefire, suggesting a potential expansion of talks between the two countries. Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated that the country was open to the committee directly verifying Israeli claims that the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group is re-arming and assessing the Lebanese army's efforts to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure. Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered ceasefire in 2024 that ended over a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Since then, both sides have continued to accuse each other of violating the agreement.

Sudan: RSF claims capturing key oil-producing town of Babanusa; Sudan's army rejects the claim 
On 1 December, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed to have seized full control of Babanusa, a key transport hub in oil-producing West Kordofan state. The RSF described the takeover as a defensive "liberation" after repelling an attack by Sudan's army, which it called a "violation of a humanitarian truce." The army immediately disputed the claim, stating that it still holds parts of the town. It also accused the RSF of continuous attacks despite RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's unilateral ceasefire declaration. The army dismissed the ceasefire declaration as a political ploy to mask troop movements and foreign support. Previously, the Quad (US, UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia) proposed a three-month truce, but it collapsed as the RSF launched drone strikes after accepting the plan.

Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda: US President Trump hosts foreign ministers of both countries to operationalise the peace deal signed in June
On 4 December, US President Donald Trump hosted the foreign ministers of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo in Washington to stabilise eastern Congo. The meeting seeks to operationalise a US-brokered peace deal signed in June and to reinforce an economic integration compact agreed last month. Critics argue that Washington has so far only "put a pin in the conflict" without resolving its deeper political and ethnic drivers. Tensions remain acute as the Congolese army and the M23 rebel group traded accusations of violating the latest ceasefire. Congolese officials insist recent clashes are "proof that Rwanda doesn't want peace." Rwanda denies backing M23, while UN experts say Kigali maintains "command and control" over the rebels. Rwanda's Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation noted, "We hope that, after the signing, we will see improvement on the ground."

Guinea-Bissau: ECOWAS sends a delegation after the AU suspension following the military coup 
On 1 December, a delegation from ECOWAS, led by its chairman and Sierra Leone's President, arrived in Guinea-Bissau for talks with the coup leaders. Earlier, on 27 November 2025, the African Union suspended Guinea-Bissau from all AU activities after the military toppled the elected government and President Umaro Sissoco Embaló fled the country. The AU Peace and Security Council passed a resolution effectively suspending the country’s membership until constitutional order is restored. The move follows the president’s flight to the Republic of Congo and the military’s takeover after disputed elections, which reflect the AU's disapproval and insistence that the nation return to democratic rule.

Europe and the Americas
Bulgaria: Thousands protest on 2026 euro-based budget, forcing the government to withdraw 
On 02 December, as a result of mounting public pressure, Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov's minority government has decided to withdraw the draft budget it previously proposed. On 01 December, large numbers of Bulgarians participated in demonstrations across Sofia and other major cities against the government's proposed 2026 budget. It's the first budget prepared in euros, as Bulgaria plans to enter the Eurozone on 1 January. The opposition coalition PP-DB called the budget "a way to hide the large amounts of ongoing corruption," by proposing to raise social insurance rates and taxes on dividend income. This was one of the largest protests in Sofia in many years, and some protesters clashed with police and vandalised the offices of the ruling GERB and DPS parties. 

The War in Ukraine: Kyiv insists on "real peace, not appeasement"; Talks continue amid ongoing uncertainty 
On 4 December, in a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha declared that Ukraine sought "real peace, not appeasement" with Russia, warning against repeating the mistakes of past diplomatic surrender, such as the 1938 Munich Agreement. Foreign Minister Sybiha thanked the United States for backing peace efforts and said Kyiv would pursue every opportunity to end the war under terms that respect its sovereignty. Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement continues: the US-proposed peace framework remains under review, and negotiators from Ukraine and allies are preparing next steps.

The War in Ukraine: President Putin accepts parts of the US peace proposal as Kyiv prepares for Brussels talks 
On 3 December, the Kremlin announced that President Vladimir Putin had accepted parts of the US proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, while rejecting others, signalling that Moscow remains open to further negotiations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the exchange a "normal working process," and said expert-level talks will continue before any high-level agreement. In response, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that senior negotiator Rustem Umerov will travel to Brussels to brief European security advisers on the Moscow talks and subsequently head to the United States for further discussions. Despite this development, Russia's refusal to compromise on core territorial demands, particularly control over occupied regions, remains a key obstacle for Kyiv and its Western partners.

The War in Ukraine: Peace talks underway, even as Russia reports new territorial gains
On 2 December, Reuters reported that a United States delegation led by envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin to discuss a possible end to the war in Ukraine. According to the report, the delegation is holding talks directly with the Russian President as part of an effort to explore whether conditions exist for a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, according to another Reuters report on 01 December, the Russian military leaders briefed Putin on what they called the liberation of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, and portrayed the developments as significant battlefield victories. Ukraine has not confirmed the loss of either location.

The UK and Russia: London imposes new sanctions on Moscow and the GRU over the "reckless" assassination attempt on a former Russian spy 
On 4 December, a UK public enquiry concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin must have ordered the 2018 Novichok nerve agent attack on Russian double agent Sergei Skripal, in a "reckless" display of power that led to the death of an innocent woman. On 04 March 2018, former Russian military intelligence officer and British double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned in Salisbury, England, with the Russian-developed Novichok nerve agent A-234, a deadly chemical weapon. The highly persistent agent was smeared on the front-door handle of Skripal's home. Both victims collapsed on a public bench, were hospitalised in critical condition, and eventually recovered. The UK has responded with new sanctions against Russia, including the entire GRU military intelligence agency. The Russian ambassador was also summoned to provide an explanation for the inquiry's findings and to address what it described as Moscow's "ongoing campaign of hostile activity" against London. Russia has persistently denied the accusations as "anti-Russian propaganda" and has not responded to the latest developments.

Europe: 2002-2024 satellite data shows groundwater stores are shrinking rapidly across multiple countries, accelerating the climate-driven water crisis 
On 29 November, a new analysis of satellite data from 2002-2024 shows that much of southern and central Europe, covering Spain, Italy, France, Poland, parts of the UK, and beyond, is losing freshwater at alarming rates. Scientists from University College London (UCL) and Watershed Investigations found that not only surface water but also previously resilient groundwater reserves are depleting across large areas. While the north and northwest of Europe have become wetter, the south and east are drying. The shift reflects changing rainfall patterns, heavier downpours, and longer summer droughts, which reduce natural groundwater recharge. The findings sound a warning that even underground aquifers are no longer safe from the impacts of climate change. Experts say Europe must urgently adopt water-smart policies emphasising water conservation, improved infrastructure, and reuse before the crisis deepens.

The US: Trump threatens to permanently suspend immigration from "third world countries”
On 28 November, President Trump threatened to "permanently pause migration" to the US from all "third world countries," after two National Guard soldiers were allegedly shot by an Afghan national in Washington. The suspect, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, travelled under a programme that provided special immigration safeguards for Afghans who had assisted US forces following Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. In a social media Thanksgiving post, he also threatened to reverse the admissions granted by the Biden administration to “remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States,” to “allow the US system to fully recover.” He has warned of a rigorous re-examination of all immigrants from “every country of concern” holding Green Cards, and to end all federal benefits and subsidies to non-US citizens. Trump also warned of measures against foreign nationals who are a security risk or “non-compatible with Western Civilisation.” Trump asserted that “These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations,” and that “Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation.” In another social media post, he claimed that the official United States foreign population stands at “53 million people, most of which are on welfare, from failed nations, or from prisons, mental institutions, gangs, or drug cartels”. The US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) also introduced updated guidelines permitting officials to weigh “negative, country-specific factors” when screening applicants from 19 high-risk nations. The list includes Afghanistan, Myanmar, Burundi, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Laos, Libya, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Turkmenistan, Venezuela and Yemen, the same countries included in the travel ban issued by former President Trump in a proclamation earlier this June. In response to Trump’s threats, the UN urged the administration to observe international agreements regarding asylum seekers. "We expect all countries, including the United States, to honour their commitments under the 1953 Refugee Convention," the deputy spokesperson for the UN secretary general told Reuters.

Venezuela: Trump confirms call with Maduro amid remarks on Venezuela’s airspace being “closed in its entirety”
On 30 November, President Trump confirmed that he had spoken with Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro over a phone call, but declined to disclose any details. “I don’t want to comment on it. The answer is yes,” stated Trump, while Maduro and members of his administration have not commented on the call. This development comes as the Trump administration intensifies pressure on Caracas while simultaneously signalling the possibility of diplomacy, reported Reuters. On 29 November, President Trump stated that the airspace above Venezuela should be considered “closed in its entirety.” “To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY,” he wrote on Truth Social. Venezuela’s government condemned the remarks in a statement as a “colonialist threat” against the country's sovereignty and contrary to international law. News reports note that Washington continues to weigh actions against Maduro, whom US officials accuse of enabling transnational drug trafficking. Reuters has reported that options include efforts to overthrow Maduro, alongside a stepped-up military posture following months of US strikes on suspected drug boats off Venezuela’s coast. Human rights groups have described the strikes as extrajudicial killings, and some US allies have raised concerns over international law violations. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth defended the operations as lawful and said that it intended to be “lethal.” President Trump told military personnel last week that the US would “very soon” begin land operations targeting suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers.

Landmine Monitor 2025: Russia, Myanmar and non-state armed groups drive a surge in mine use; five NATO members to formally withdraw from the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty 
On 1 December 2025, the Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor released its 27th annual report and documented a sharp surge in new use of antipersonnel landmines. This “extensive” use is by non-parties Russia and Myanmar, as well as by non-state armed groups in at least ten countries. Despite two new countries joining, bringing the Mine Ban Treaty to 166 States Parties, five NATO members (Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) are formally withdrawing. Ukraine has sought to suspend the treaty during the war with Russia. The report records continued production by twelve non-signatories, including China, India, Pakistan and Russia. It also notes that the United States transferred landmines to Ukraine. Casualties reached at least 6,279 in 2024, with 90 per cent of them being civilians and 46 per cent of them being children. Global funding accounts for USD 1.07 billion with a 4 per cent rise from 2023. Ukraine is the top recipient of international funding for the third time in a row, while Sub-Saharan African countries struggled to obtain global funding.

Global arms revenues hit record high, says new SIPRI report 
On 1 December, the latest data from SIPRI showed that global arms revenues experienced a historic surge in 2024, driven by the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions that pushed military expenditures to new heights. Revenues of the top 100 largest arms-producing companies rose by 5.9 per cent in 2024, reaching a record USD 679 billion. For the first time since 2018, the world's five largest arms companies all reported revenue growth. The United States and Europe remained the dominant forces in this expansion. US firms saw a collective 3.8 per cent rise to USD 334 billion, though their momentum is currently hampered by significant budget overruns and production delays in major programs like the F-35 and Sentinel ICBM. European companies recorded an even sharper aggregate increase of 13 per cent to USD 151 billion, fueled by urgent rearmament and ammunition initiatives for Ukraine, with the Czechoslovak Group alone surging by 193 per cent. However, this European growth faces challenges regarding supply chain restructuring and dependency on critical minerals. Simultaneously, the Russian arms industry defied the impact of international sanctions, with revenues of Rostec and United Shipbuilding Corporation growing by 23 per cent through intense domestic demand, although it now faces potential stagnation due to severe skilled labour shortages.

While the West and Russia expanded, the Asia and Oceania region recorded a 1.2 per cent overall decline, largely attributed to the Chinese arms industry, which fell by 10 per cent amidst corruption scandals and cancelled contracts. This aggregate drop masks significant growth elsewhere in the region, as Japanese and South Korean companies surged by 40 per cent and 31 per cent respectively, driven by robust domestic and European export demand. The Middle East also significantly widened its global footprint, placing a record nine companies in the Top 100 with a 14 per cent revenue increase. Despite international backlash regarding Gaza, Israeli firms grew by 16 per cent, joined by strong performances from Turkish and UAE conglomerates. The expanding scope of the global arms trade was further evidenced by the entry of Indonesia’s DEFEND ID and US-based SpaceX into the Top 100, alongside notable revenue increases from Indian and German manufacturers responding to local and regional security threats.

About the authors
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD Scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. 

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