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Padmashree Anandhan
6 December 2025 |
What happened this week?
On 4 December, US President Donald Trump stated that discussions between US representatives and Russian President Vladimir Putin were “reasonably good,” although he recognized that the road to a peace deal is opaque. He said: “It takes two to tango.” However, the talks did not result in any breakthroughs. The Kremlin confirmed that Putin agreed to some parts of the US proposal, but “compromises have not yet been found.”
On the same day, Ukraine's military announced strikes on Russian positions, including an oil depot in Russia's Tambov region, an observation post in the Black Sea, and Orion drones at the Saki airfield in occupied Crimea. Moreover, Ukrainian forces reported pushing Russian troops back to the northern edge of Kupyansk and creating a “kill zone” to block further advances. The Institute for the Study of War reported that Putin had exaggerated Russia's gains in Pokrovsk, claiming there is no solid proof that the city has completely fallen and capturing it would not lead to quick advancements.
On 4 December, Australia and New Zealand announced contributions to NATO's military equipment fund for Ukraine, becoming the first non-NATO countries to do so. Canberra pledged USD 50 million to the Priority Ukraine Requirements List and USD 43 million in equipment.
On 3 December, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov stated that after five hours of negotiations, they were “neither further nor closer” to a resolution, describing the process as slow and tough. Putin accused European leaders of hindering peace efforts and warned of retaliation against tankers supporting Ukraine.
On that same day, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed concerns that the US might lose interest in the peace talks. Zelenskyy mentioned he was waiting for signals after the meeting between Putin and Witkoff and was open to meeting Trump based on the results.
On 2 December, the White House expressed “very optimistic” views on the prospect of a peace deal, citing productive talks in Florida between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian officials.
On 1 December, Trump indicated there was a “good chance” for a deal following discussions with the Ukrainian delegation in Florida.
On 30 November, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced France was ready to impose stricter sanctions on Moscow if Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire. On the same day, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv, resulting in six deaths, numerous injuries, and temporarily cutting electricity to half the city.
What are the issues?
1. A blurry peace process
The original 28-point plan, along with its modifications, is still contested, not just by Ukraine but also by its European allies, who worry it would solidify Russian territorial gains and jeopardise long-term European security. In late November, major European powers (UK, France, Germany) collaborated on a counter-proposal that aims to uphold Ukrainian sovereignty, offer strong security guarantees for Kyiv, and avoid forced territorial concessions, such as maintaining Ukrainian control of frontlines instead of formally recognizing occupied areas. Meanwhile, Russia has outright rejected the European counter-proposal, calling it “unconstructive” and insisting that only versions acceptable to Moscow will be considered. This gap between what Kyiv and its allies see as acceptable and Moscow's demands highlights a structural deadlock.
2. Ukraine continues to struggle for strategic agency as it fights on numerous fronts
What began as Russia's 2014 occupation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donbas has now escalated into a full-scale war since 2022, characterised by shifting frontlines, attrition warfare, and an extended battle over Ukraine’s territorial future. The broadened battlefield also faces new challenges, such as harsh winter conditions and repeated infrastructure strikes that worsen civilian suffering and complicate logistics. While talks are ongoing, Ukraine must resist being cornered into a “peace” that merely solidifies its losses.
3. The war is still the ultimate bargaining chip for Russia
Russia continues to target civilians, energy grids, and crucial infrastructure as winter approaches. They’ve clearly dismissed European proposals and are leaning on military force to shape outcomes by ramping up their military presence, overwhelming Ukrainian defenses, and showing readiness for broader escalation if diplomacy does not yield concessions. It is viewed as Russia sees talks not as a way to de-escalate but as another front in their strategy, using diplomacy to solidify battlefield gains and legitimise coercion.
About the author
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS.
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