Japan Elections 2025: Divided Diet and New PM

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CWA # 1903

State of Global Politics 2025

Japan Elections 2025: Divided Diet and New PM

The World This Week #338, Vol 7, No 52, 31 December 2025

Aparna A Nair
31 December 2025

What happened?
On 20 July, Japan conducted an election for 125 out of 258 seats in the Upper House. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito bloc emerged victorious by securing 47 seats. However, the bloc failed to maintain its majority, as it did not win the 50 seats. The rest of the seats were occupied by the opposition party, Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), and far-right parties like Sanseito. This left the chamber fragmented.

On 07 September, Shigeru Ishiba resigned as Prime Minister following electoral defeats and political setbacks.

On 04 October, the 26-year-long LDP-Komeito coalition ended. It collapsed over political funding scandals and ideological differences.

On 21 October, the parliament elected Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister, and the LDP was supported by the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin)

What is the background?
First, an overview of Japan’s political system. The country follows a constitutional monarchy with parliamentary government. The National Diet is the bicameral legislature, comprising the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the House of Councillors (Upper House). The House of Councillors hold a tenure of six years, of which 124 members out of 248 are elected every three years. The Diet is vested with legislative powers, including the power to pass legislation, control the budget, and approve treaties related to foreign affairs.

Second, a brief note on major political parties. The LDP is a conservative party that has dominated Japan's political arena since the post-war period. It led the ruling bloc with long-time centrist and Buddhist-linked coalition partner Komeito. The coalition provided organisational strength and moderate influence on security and social policy. On the opposition side, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) functioned as the main centre-left alternative. Parties like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and reformist-nationalist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) positioned themselves as “third force” options. The 2025 election also marked the surge of far-right parties like Sanseito and other conservative newcomers. They campaigned on anti-immigration, “Japan First” themes, driving a rightward drift and fragmentation in the Upper House.

Third, the election issues. On October 2024, the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the lower house election over political scandals and domestic economy issues. Japan’s bicameral Diet requires the government to manage majorities in both houses. Losing the Upper House majority after being weak in the Lower House made governance and budget passing harder, as it creates a “twisted Diet”, a condition of legislative deadlock well known in Japan’s parliamentary history. High inflation, rising food and energy prices, and debates over consumption taxes, social security sustainability, immigration, and defence buildup were among the factors influencing voters’ decisions.

Fourth, internal party politics. The defeats weakened Ishiba’s authority in the party and in the country. His centrist and technocratic governance appealed to moderates but alienated conservative factions within the LDP. The repeated losses eroded confidence in Ishiba’s leadership. Furthermore, the long-term voter disillusionment with LDP dominance and urban-rural divides allowed Ishin and far-right or anti-immigration parties to grow, pulling the agenda rightward. This led Abe-style, nationalist, socially conservative line, Takaichi to come through.

What does it mean?
First, a possible snap election. As Prime Minister Takaichi enters 2026 with a high approval rating, a snap election is expected to secure a stable majority. The latest records suggest that opposition parties such as the CDP and the DPP are intensifying preparations by discussing coordination and candidate placements. However, Taikaichi has stated that she is “not considering” a snap poll and is focused on cost-of-living policies.

Second, Takaichi’s policies. Economically, from 01 April 2026, the cabinet-approved budget of 122.3 trillion yen will roll out. Formulated under the slogan of “responsive and proactive public finances,” it is expected to raise investment in semiconductors and heavy new bond issuance. According to recent analyses, fiscal expansion could support growth, ease trade tensions, and modestly lower cost-of-living pressures, even as public debt and interest payments continue to rise. Security and foreign policy-wise, Takaichi plans to review Japan’s National Security Strategy and other security documents by the end of 2026, while accelerating defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP. The recalibration of defence capabilities is framed as necessary to deter China and other regional threats. The proposed policies and actions of the Takaichi government aim to address pressing issues in Japan’s economy and position Japan as a more assertive player in regional tensions. Furthermore, the proposed ambitious industrial and defence spending plans might run up against fiscal constraints and a divided diet.

About the author
Aparna A Nair is an Undergraduate student at Madras Christian College, Chennai.

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