State of Global Politics 2025

Photo Source:
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

State of Global Politics 2025
One Big Beautiful Bill Act: One bill, several issues at stake
The World This Week #338, Vol 7, No 52, 31 December 2025

  Merin Treesa Alex
31 December 2025

What happened?
On 01 July, the Senate passed H.R. 1/One Big Beautiful Bill Act, by a narrow 51–50 vote. Vice President JD Vance casted the tiebreaking vote after over 24 hours of amendment debates. On the same day, Elon Musk criticised the bill, calling it a “disgusting abomination,” and called for the formation of a new political party

On 03 July, the House of Representatives passed the bill 218–214, with nearly all 212 Democrats opposing it. The bill increases military spending and funds major migrant deportation programs.
 
On 04 July, President Trump signed the bill into law, calling it a “birthday present for America.”. Several provisions initially included in the bill were ultimately removed.

On 28 June, Trump warned Senate Republicans that failing to pass the bill would be an “ultimate betrayal.” The White House stated that the bill's passing would lead to economic growth nationwide

The Big Beautiful Bill is a domestic policy bill focused on tax cuts and a budget reconciliation package for fiscal year 2025. It was introduced as H.R. 1 and spans over 900 pages. It extends and makes the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 permanent, as it is set to expire in 2025. The bill also imposes a one per cent tax on migrant remittances sent to families, which applies only to cash transfers; bank and card transfers are exempt.

What is the background?
First, a brief note on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). TCJA was signed into law in December 2017 during President Trump’s first term, which lowered individual tax rates and decreased the top marginal rate from 39.6 per cent to 37 per cent. Further, it doubled the standard deduction to USD 12,400 (single filers) and USD 24,800 (married filers), eliminated personal exemptions, and revoked the Affordable Care Act’s mandate penalty. The state and local tax (SALT) deduction was capped at USD 10,000, and the Child Tax Credit was doubled to USD 2,000. Additionally, the TCJA reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 21 per cent. Also it allowed 100 per cent bonus depreciation for certain capital investments and limited the interest expense deductions.

Second, a brief note on Trump’s aversion to social welfare programs. During his first term, Trump, proposed budget cuts for safety net programs, including USD 800 billion from Medicaid, which provides health coverage to low-income families, seniors, and people with disabilities, and reduced the funding for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, food stamps), which helps meet basic food needs. These proposals faced strong opposition from Democrats in Congress.

Third, a brief note on Trump’s push for a conventional source of energy. In the first term, Trump withdrew from the Paris climate agreement in 2017, which portrayed his priority towards conventional energy in contrast to global climate commitments. He emphasised the “America First Energy Plan,” which focused on expanding fossil fuels and deregulating environmental rules such as the Clean Power Plan proposed by the Obama administration. He also approved pipelines to increase energy infrastructure, supporting domestic production. Trump’s energy policy was explicitly rooted in fossil fuels. In 2024, Trump, during his election campaigning, stated that solar and wind energy projects were too expensive and had limited outputs. He strongly opposed Biden’s EV subsidies and vehicle efficiency rule, stating that they are a danger to the automobile industry and claimed that all are manufactured in China. 

Fourth, a brief note on Trump's focus on military and immigration enforcement. During his first term, defence budgets increased from USD 619 billion to USD 740 billion (2021), funding nuclear upgrades, F-35 jets, naval ships, the Space Force, military pay raises, and veteran healthcare. Immigration policies included building 452 miles of border wall and implementing the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which affected more than 71,000 asylum seekers. During President Trump’s second term, the administration promised to reinstate this policy and end the catch-and-release policy introduced by the Biden administration.

What does it mean?
First, the bill would widen the wealth gap, with TCJA becoming permanent, saving wealthy households USD 12,000 annually and increasing the SALT cap to USD 40,000 from USD 10,000, benefiting high earners and corporations. The new tax provisions, like the no tax on tips and overtime, could provide a short-term relief, as they would expire after 2028

Second, low-income and disabled Americans are likely to face heightened vulnerability. The budget for Medicaid would face cuts of 18 per cent, and the renewed work requirements for parents with children over 14 limit access to food and healthcare for millions and would increase the costs for low-income households by USD 1,600 yearly.

Third, the impact of the bill's termination of the Inflation Reduction Act clean energy credits on EV manufacturers. This proposition of the bill would adversely impact EV manufacturers like Tesla and Rivian. This move signals a shift away from sustainability toward conventional energy like fossil fuels.


About the author 
Merin Treesa Alex is a Postgraduate student from Stella Maris College, Chennai. 

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan