Protests in Iran

CWA # 1935

Conflict Weekly

Protests in Iran | Instability in Nigeria

Conflict Weekly #315, 16 January 2026, Vol 7, No. 2

IPRI Team
15 January 2026

Photo Source: Reuters

Conflict Weekly #315, 16 January 2026, Vol 7, No. 2
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Brighty Ann Sarah and Anu Maria Joseph

Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position
Brighty Ann Sarah

In the news
On 15 January, the US Department of Treasury imposed sanctions on five Iranian officials, including the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and law enforcement forces commander, for the violent crackdown on protesters. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused the leaders of several unlawful transfers of “funds stolen from Iranian families” to international banks and demanded that the regime “stop the violence and stand with the people of Iran.”

On 14 January, following Tehran’s postponement of the execution of an anti-government protester, President Trump stated that certain “very important sources on the other side” had informed him that the government crackdown on protestors was easing and that Washington would pursue a “wait-and-see” response. Trump also expressed his reservations about extending support to Reza Pahlavi, the exiled heir of the former shah, stating that “I don't know how he'd play within his own country, and we really aren't up to that point yet,” adding that “I don't know whether or not his country would accept his leadership.”

On 13 January, Washington withdrew personnel from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar following Tehran’s warnings that US military bases in neighbouring countries would be treated as “legitimate targets” if the US pursues military intervention. The Revolutionary Guards' Aerospace Commander Majid Mousavi declared that Iran's stockpile of missiles has increased since the 12-day war, and that Tehran was “at the peak of our readiness.”

On the same day, President Trump reiterated his support for the protesters in Tehran, assuring that “help is on its way.” He also announced 25 per cent tariffs on countries trading with Iran.

Issues at large
First, Iran’s history of protests and state responses. Over the last two decades, Iran witnessed several major protest movements. The regime has maintained a similar response of denial, deflection, and brutal repression, internet blackouts to disrupt coordination, attribution to foreign powers, and subsequent show trials or executions to deter future dissent. Massive protests broke out against the 2009 presidential elections, which were marked by accusations of widespread electoral fraud. The protesters disputed the victory of the then-president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The months-long protests met with a severe crackdown and censorship. A similar response was pursued during the November 2019 protests over the rise in fuel prices. The peaceful protest morphed into calls for regime change and was quelled with severe state repression, communication blackouts and mass detentions.

In 2022, women-led protests under the slogan “Women, Life, Freedom” took over Iran after the alleged custodial torture and death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. She was arrested by the country’s "morality police" for not wearing a hijab properly. The state responded to the protests, one of the largest the country had witnessed, with a violent crackdown. Thousands were arrested, and many were killed, with young protesters sentenced to death in summary trials.

During the current protests, initially, the regime acknowledged the demands of the protestors as legitimate, diverging from an immediate hardline stance. However, it quickly devolved into violent suppression, claims of external intervention, and media and communication blackouts, with death tolls that dwarfed the previous uprisings.

Second, the escalating protests and humanitarian concerns. The protests, initially against economic issues, have evolved into demands for regime change and the fall of Khamenei’s rule. Nearly 20 days into the crisis, protests have spread into all 31 provinces in Iran and over 200 cities. As the regime intensifies the crackdown, rights groups, including Amnesty International and the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), have verified at least 2,571 fatalities. Senior Iranian officials have acknowledged around 3,000 deaths, although state media claims about 100 security forces being killed by “rioters.” Over 18,100 arrests have been recorded. The internet and communication blackout continue to disrupt the coordination among the masses. It has additionally constrained media and reporting.

Third, Iran’s threats of retaliation and shifts in US response. Trump’s latest statement is a shift from his previous threats of military intervention against government repression. His earlier “locked and loaded” remarks signalling a military response and repeated reassurances to the protestors had incited a defensive posture from Tehran. It also threatened retaliatory strikes on several US bases across the region, which spans Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and the UAE. The US military bases in the Middle East were originally established for counterterrorism and ensuring energy security. Washington’s withdrawal of personnel from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the forward headquarters for the US Central Command (CENTCOM) heightens the fear of a military intervention.

Fourth, global responses and heightened caution. The escalating tensions in Iran, compounded by the US threats, have prompted a state of caution in the region and beyond. Qatar has assumed the role of mediator, fearing an attack within its territory. Saudi Arabia and Oman have affirmed cooperation with Iran. Anxiety over regional instability and the disruption of global oil trade is also high. Trump’s threats of 25 per cent tariffs on countries trading with Iran also have a notable impact. China, Iran’s largest trade partner, has condemned the US threat. Indian suppliers halted the supply of rice and pharmaceuticals to Iran.

In perspective
Despite the intensifying unrest and increasing demands for regime change, Iran’s administration has remained united, diminishing the scope of a transition driven by internal fragmentation. Sustained and escalating state repression is likely to quell protests in the short term. However, the unrest has exposed significant cracks in the regime’s control over society, underscoring widespread frustration that extends into its traditional support bases. Increasing calls for the restoration of the monarchy, along with visible support for Reza Pahlavi, further challenge the regime’s political cohesion. Washington’s threats also add to the regime's instability.

Even if the protests are ultimately contained and the regime endures, the faultlines of the administration have been revealed. With sanctions remaining in place and economic recovery expected to be slow, a return to political stability and economic normalcy will be difficult. As a result, sporadic episodes of civil unrest are likely to persist unless substantive administrative reforms are undertaken.

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa This Week
Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trump’s intervention
Anu Maria Joseph

What happened this week?
On 13 January, Reuters reported that the US delivered critical military supplies to Nigeria to support its fight against Islamic State militants. The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) stated that the delivery will support "Nigeria's ongoing operations and emphasises our shared security partnership."

On 13 January, the Nigerian government told the BBC that more than 200 Bandits were killed in central Nigeria in an ongoing operation.

On 9 January, US President Donald Trump said that he could order more strikes on Nigeria if Christians continue to be killed. He said: "I'd love to make it a one-time strike. But if they continue to kill Christians it will be a many-time strike." Meanwhile, Nigeria's spokesperson to the foreign ministry responded to BBC: We will continue to engage constructively and work with partners, including the United States, on the basis of mutual respect, international law, and Nigeria's sovereignty. Nigeria remains committed to protecting all citizens, Christians and Muslims alike, without discrimination."

What are the issues?
Nigeria: Intensification of domestic military operations, deepening Nigeria-US security cooperation and sovereignty sensitivities
Nigeria's peripheral regions, particularly in the north-western areas, have long faced security challenges due to a weak state presence. Banditry in these states, especially Niger, has continued despite renewed efforts by the Nigerian government to address the issue. 30 people were killed, and several were abducted in Kasuwan Daji market in Niger state on 6 January. In Kano state, thousands fled amidst fear of being killed by bandits this week. Spreading banditry also came after the US carried out an IS-targeted attack on Sokoto state, which prompted armed groups to flee and spread to other states.

Meanwhile, AFRICOM's assistance to Nigeria is part of a shared security partnership that highlights Nigeria's importance in US counterterrorism efforts in West Africa. It also reflects Nigeria's strategic and tactical military reliance on the US to counter jihadists/insurgents/bandit attacks across the country. However, the long-term capacity of this short-term assistance is uncertain. Besides, Trump has linked US military attacks as a response to the killing of Christians in the country, despite Nigerian President Bola Tinubu clarifying that the targets are not exclusively Christians.

Trump's statements and stance suggesting further possible US strikes highlight the increasing sovereignty concerns in Abuja. Trump's religious framing, threats of unilateral actions and Nigeria's incapacity and dependence on US security assistance have increased fears of creating a perception of external leverage over the country's internal security issues.

What does it mean?
The intensified domestic response to the security issues in Nigeria marks a positive development. However, these developments appear to be substantially dependent on the US support. The US-Nigeria security cooperation alone is unlikely to address the multifactor security crisis in Nigeria. A long-term security will depend on local response, presence of state forces and technical and military capacity to respond on time. Meanwhile, the continued scale of banditry suggests the challenge of durable security improvements, particularly in areas with weak governance and local grievances. Besides, Trump’s stance and increasing sovereignty concerns imply that Nigeria needs to balance security cooperation and external control over domestic security policies.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, and Rizwana Banu

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
South Korea: Former President Yoon Suk Yeol sentenced to five years in prison over failed 2024 martial law declaration
On 16 January, the Seoul Central District Court sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in prison for abuse of power, obstruction of justice, and falsification of documents related to his failed attempt to impose martial law in December 2024. The judge criticised Yoon for putting the country into a severe political crisis, disregarding the constitution, and showing no remorse. Yoon denied all wrongdoing and insisted that the charges were procedurally invalid. This marks the first verdict in a series of trials against him, and much more serious insurrection charges are still pending. A ruling is expected in February, and both sides have seven days to appeal.

Myanmar: NUG welcomes ICJ hearings, says junta has no legitimacy to represent Myanmar
On 12 January, Mizzima reported that Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) welcomed the upcoming International Court of Justice (ICJ) hearings in The Gambia v. Myanmar case, scheduled to begin on 13 January, and asserted that it is the sole legitimate representative of Myanmar before the Court. The NUG stated that it has accepted the ICJ’s jurisdiction and withdrawn all preliminary objections previously filed, framing the proceedings as critical for justice for the Rohingya people and Myanmar’s future. The statement reiterated that the military junta lacks domestic legitimacy and is not recognised by the UN General Assembly, and therefore has no authority to represent Myanmar in international legal forums. The NUG warned that allowing the junta to appear before the ICJ would undermine the dignity of victims and global justice, stressing that any submissions made by the military regime do not reflect the will of the Myanmar people.

Myanmar: AA seizes strategic outposts as battle for Sittwe intensifies
On 12 January, Mizzima reported that the Arakan Army (AA) captured two strategic military outposts near the Regional Operations Command (ROC) in Sittwe, intensifying fighting around the Rakhine State capital. Military sources said junta forces lost control of outposts on Kan Kaw Kyun, forcing troops to retreat amid close-quarters combat, with reports of casualties and wounded soldiers captured. The junta has reportedly concentrated senior commanders in Sittwe, including the Western Command chief and the Bureau of Special Operations head, who are frequently relocating to avoid attack. Kan Kaw Kyun, along with Nar Yi Kan and Kyauk Tan bridges, is seen as vital to Sittwe’s defence, and sources indicated that if the AA consolidates control there, the fall of the city would be imminent.

Myanmar: ICJ hearings open as Gambia accuses Myanmar military of genocide against Rohingyas
On 13 January, Mizzima reported that formal hearings on the merits of The Gambia v. Myanmar case began at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), with Gambia’s Justice Minister Dawda Jallow accusing Myanmar’s military of intentionally targeting the Rohingya minority for destruction. Addressing the court, Jallow said the genocide was a deliberate policy carried out and stressed that no perpetrators had been held accountable to date. He noted that Myanmar’s former representative before the ICJ, Aung San Suu Kyi, is now detained by the military junta that seized power in 2021, while Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who commanded the army during the atrocities, now heads the Military Commission. Jallow told the judges that the case was not abstract but concerned “real people, real events and an entire community” subjected to targeted violence and impunity.

Myanmar pro-military party claims Suu Kyi’s seat in junta-run poll
On 13 January, Mizzima reported that the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) claimed victory in Kawhmu constituency, previously held by detained democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi, during the second phase of the junta-run parliamentary elections. A USDP official stated that the party won 15 out of 16 lower house seats in Yangon Region, though official results from the junta-controlled election commission have yet to be released. Under Myanmar’s military-drafted constitution, the armed forces will retain 25 per cent of parliamentary seats regardless of election outcomes.

South Asia
Pakistan: The CTD kills three TTP-linked militants in DI Khan
On 14 January, Dawn reported that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) killed three militants affiliated with Fitna-al-Khawarij, the state-designated term for the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), during an intelligence-based operation in Dera Ismail Khan. Acting on confirmed intelligence, CTD teams surrounded the suspects, who opened fire to evade arrest, prompting retaliatory action in which all three were killed. Authorities recovered three Kalashnikovs, nine magazines, two hand grenades and ammunition from the site. The CTD said the militants were directly involved in attacks on police and security forces, and announced an expansion of search operations to apprehend facilitators in the area. KP’s police leadership praised the operation, while Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi commended the CTD, reiterating the government’s resolve to intensify operations against militant groups.

Bangladesh: Border Guard detains 53 ARSA fighters, raises alert along Myanmar border
On 13 January, Mizzima reported that Bangladesh placed its Myanmar border on “high alert” after Border Guard Bangladesh detained 53 members of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) for illegally crossing into its territory. The detentions followed intensified fighting across the border in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, where ARSA, the Arakan Army and the military junta are reportedly engaged in a three-way conflict involving ground clashes and air strikes. Bangladeshi officials said at least two people were injured in Cox’s Bazar amid the violence, while law enforcement agencies have been deployed in border villages to prevent further incursions and monitor security risks.

Central Asia
Kazakhstan: Calls for help from the US and Europe after drone attacks hit oil tankers
On 14 January, Kazakhstan called on the United States and European partners to help secure oil transport routes after drone attacks targeted tankers heading to a major Black Sea terminal on Russia’s coast. Unidentified drones struck at least two tankers on 13 January, including one chartered by US oil major Chevron. The tankers were en route to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, which handles about 1 per cent of global oil supply. Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry said that the rising frequency of such attacks poses growing risks to international energy infrastructure and urged coordinated measures to prevent further disruptions. The CPC, which accounts for nearly 80 per cent of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, has faced repeated attacks in recent weeks.

The Middle East and Africa
Iran: Tehran threatens to attack neighbours hosting US troops in the event of Washington’s intervention; Trump vows support to protestors, assures that “help is on the way”
On 14 January, Iran warned neighbouring countries hosting US military troops would be targeted if Washington strikes Tehran. "Tehran has told regional countries, from Saudi Arabia and the UAE to Turkey, that US bases in those countries will be attacked" if the US targets Iran, an Iranian official stated. Senior Israeli officials told Reuters that some personnel had been advised to leave the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The officials stated that the move was a “posture change,” rather than an “ordered evacuation.” They also stated that direct contacts between Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had been suspended. Israeli officials revealed their assessment that Trump has decided to intervene, although the scope and timing of the intervention have not been determined. In a televised interview, Trump had vowed that "very strong action" would be taken if Iran executes protesters, warning that "If they hang them, you're going to see some things.” He also urged the protestors to advance their actions, stating that “help is on the way.”

The War in Gaza: Hamas to elect the successor to Yahya Sinwar, sources tell Reuters
On 13 January, Reuters reported that Hamas is expected to elect a new leader with information from sources. The new leader would fill the position left vacant since the death of Yahya Sinwar in 2024. Reuters also reports that Khalil Al-Hayya and Khaled Meshaal could be the potential leaders and notes that both are in the five-man council. It is also reported that the election process has already begun. This election process involves a secret ballot by Hamas’ Shoura Council, which contains 50 members of Hamas. Hamas’ spokesperson has declined to comment on the same.

Iran: President Trump imposes a 25 per cent tariff rate on countries doing business with Iran; Iran acknowledges the high death toll for the first time, says Reuters
On 12 January, US President Trump stated that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25 per cent on any trade with the US. He said, "Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25 per cent on any business being done with the United States of America," and "This Order is final and conclusive." No further details have been disclosed so far. Iran is an OPEC oil-producing country, and countries like China, Turkey, Iraq, UAE and India are its top trading partners. On 13 January, Reuters reported that an Iranian official acknowledged for the first time that the protest claimed the lives of 2000. As the country witnesses its biggest protest in years, Reuters reports that Iranian authorities have taken a dual approach, acknowledging economic problems while enforcing a security crackdown.

Iran: Trump hints at meeting with Iranian officials; Former IRGC commander states that US bases would be “legitimate targets,” warning Washington against "a miscalculation”
On 12 January, Trump claimed that Iranian officials had contacted the US to negotiate the terms of Tehran’s nuclear programme, and that US and Iranian officials might meet for further discussions. The US-based rights group HRANA stated that the verified death toll has increased to 490 protesters and 48 security personnel, with more than 10,600 people arrested. Trump was to meet with senior advisers to discuss options for Iran, including military strikes, using secret cyber weapons, widening sanctions and providing online help to anti-government sources, reports Reuters. "The military is looking at it, and we're looking at some very strong options," Trump told reporters travelling on Air Force One on Sunday night. In response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned Washington against "a miscalculation,” adding that “in the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all US bases and ships will be our legitimate target.”

Iran: Washington reiterates support for protestors in Tehran; Pahlavi issues a call to "seize city centres and hold them"
On 10 January, in response to the administration's efforts to curb the escalating protests, President Trump warned Tehran that "You better not start shooting because we'll start shooting too." "I just hope the protesters in Iran are going to be safe, because that's a very dangerous place right now," he added. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also expressed Washington's support for the "brave people of Iran," following the state-imposed communication blackout in the country. The crown prince in exile, Reza Pahlavi, declared in a social media post that "Our goal is no longer merely to come into the streets; the goal is to prepare to seize city centres and hold them." He also urged "workers and employees in key sectors of the economy, especially transportation, oil, gas and energy", to begin a nationwide strike. Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned that safeguarding security was a "red line", and the military vowed to protect public property, accusing "terrorists" of attacking military and law enforcement bases over the past two nights, killing several citizens and security personnel. The military, operating independently from the IRGC, announced it would "protect and safeguard national interests, the country’s strategic infrastructure, and public property."

Syria: Turkey says use of force by Damascus remains an option
On 15 January, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said that he hopes to resolve problems with Syria peacefully, but added that “when problems are not solved through dialogue, unfortunately, I see from here that the use of force is also an option for the Syrian government." Syria’s health ministry reported that five days of fighting in Aleppo claimed the lives of 23 people and led to the displacement of more than 150,000. Minister Fidan urged the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to show goodwill and end the cycle of violence. He also said that the ongoing peace process with the PKK should not become a missed opportunity.

South Africa: China, Russia and Iran conduct 'WILL FOR PEACE 2026' naval exercise
On 10 January, China, Russia and Iran started a week-long joint naval exercise in South Africa. The statement from South Africa's military said, "Exercise WILL FOR PEACE 2026 brings together navies from BRICS Plus countries for ... joint maritime safety operations (and) interoperability drills." In the opening ceremony led by China's military officials, BRICS plus countries, including Brazil, Egypt and Ethiopia, participated as observers.

Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: "I think Ukraine is less ready to make a deal," says US President Trump
On 15 January, in an interview with Reuters, US President Trump stated that Ukraine is less ready to make a deal, contradicting European allies who argue that Moscow is less interested. This statement was in response to the question of why US-led negotiations have not resolved Europe's largest conflict since World War II. Referring to Putin, President Trump said, "I think he's ready to make a deal." Following that, Russia's spokesperson said, "I agree, that is indeed the case. President Putin and the Russian side remain open to talks. The Russian position is well known. It is well known to the American negotiators, to President Trump, and to the leadership of the Kyiv regime."

The War in Ukraine: Norway to provide EUR 340 million to support Kyiv’s energy sector
On 12 November, Norway announced that it will provide EUR 340 million in emergency funding to support and maintain Ukraine’s energy sector as Russian attacks repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s energy network. Last year, the Norwegian parliament allocated NOK 70 billion to military support and NOK 15 billion to civilian and humanitarian aid for Ukraine, of which NOK 4.8 billion was allotted to energy security and supply. This occurred as EU leaders recently agreed to a EUR 90 billion loan and increased support for Ukraine from European countries.

Greenland: European allies send military personnel to Nuuk
On 15 January, military personnel from several European countries, including France, Germany, Sweden, and Norway, began arriving in Greenland as part of preparations for joint exercises and increased Arctic defence activities. European allies are coordinating with Denmark and Greenland to enhance military presence and reassure their commitment to the island’s sovereignty, underscoring concerns over Trump’s proposals. A recent trilateral meeting in Washington between the US, Denmark, and Greenland's officials produced no resolution on Trump’s stance, leaving disagreements unresolved. Trump has argued that US control of Greenland is necessary to prevent Russian or Chinese influence in the Arctic.

Greenland: Copenhagen and Nuuk to hold high-stakes talks with the US; Trump says, "NATO would be far more formidable with Greenland in the hands of the US"
On 16, the media reported that Denmark and Greenland will hold a high-level meeting with US officials. Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that the talks are expected to involve US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and other senior officials. The talks are framed as urgent discussions on security cooperation, Arctic defence, and regional stability. Meanwhile, President Trump reiterated that NATO would be a more formidable alliance if the United States controlled Greenland, citing its strategic position in the Arctic. His remarks came as NATO allies affirm they remain committed to collective defence and maintaining territorial integrity for Denmark and Greenland. PM Frederiksen said the upcoming meeting would focus on how best to strengthen defence cooperation without undermining Greenland’s status, emphasising the need to uphold sovereignty and international law. Greenland’s leaders have repeatedly rejected incorporation into the United States, instead advocating for maintained autonomy and dialogue within established legal frameworks.

Greenland: Denmark faces a defence dilemma over Greenland; Nuuk's Parliament prepares talks on US threats
On 10 January, the media reported that Denmark is grappling with how to defend Greenland, its vast Arctic territory. This came amid the renewed US interest and threats from President Donald Trump prompt strategic reassessment. Denmark's defence officials acknowledge that protecting Greenland poses challenges given its remote location, sparse population, and limited infrastructure, raising questions about how best to strengthen the territory’s security. Government efforts to increase military presence in the Arctic, including a multi-billion-dollar investment, are ongoing, but Copenhagen recognises that effective defence will require coordination with NATO allies and broader strategic planning.

Meanwhile, Greenland’s Parliament announced that it will convene a meeting to discuss threats from the United States and other developments that may impact its future. The move reflects growing local concern over sovereignty and external pressure following Trump’s renewed threat to acquire Greenland. Greenland’s lawmakers plan examine the implications of these threats and debate how best to respond, including possible diplomatic and legislative measures.

Venezuela: Opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Machado gives her Nobel Peace prize to Trump in recognition of "his unique commitment to [Venezuela's] freedom"
On 16 January, Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado gave her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump during a meeting at the White House. She stated that it was "a recognition for his unique commitment to our freedom." The Nobel Prize Committee responded in a social media post, stating that "a medal can change owners, but the title of a Nobel Peace Prize laureate cannot." President Trump welcomed the act as "a wonderful gesture of mutual respect," but declined to endorse Machado as Venezuela's new leader. On the same day, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met Venezuela's interim leader Delcy Rodriguez in Caracas to discuss cooperation. The visit marks the most senior known visit by a US official since Washington's intervention. A White House official stated that the meeting was at the direction of President Donald Trump, "to deliver the message that the United States looks forward to an improved working relationship." The discussions focused on intelligence cooperation, economic stability and the need to ensure Venezuela was no longer a "safe haven for America's adversaries, especially narco-traffickers," and was an effort to build mutual trust between Washington and Caracas.

US and Cuba: "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!," says Trump; Cuba's President says, "Nobody dictates what we do"
On 12 January, US President Trump stated that Cuba would not receive any Venezuelan oil or money and suggested that Cuba strike a deal with the US. He said, "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE." He also stated that Cuba has been receiving a large amount of oil and money from Venezuela. In response, Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel said, "Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation. Nobody dictates what we do," and "Cuba does not attack; it has been attacked by the US for 66 years, and it does not threaten; it prepares, ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood." Additionally, Cuba's Foreign Minister stated that the country has the right to import fuel from any willing suppliers and denied receipt of financial or other material compensations for the security services provided to the government. No cargoes have been sent from Venezuela's port to Cuba since the capture of Venezula President by the US. As per the latest literature, Venezuela covers 50 per cent of Cuba's oil deficit. On the other hand, Washington and Caracus official are working on a USD two billion deal that supplies 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the US.

About the authors
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry.

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Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (Jan–Mar 2026):

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)

Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)

Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2060

Nanda Kishor M S

India and the Neighbourhood (Jan-Mar 2026)

Continuity, Caution and Calculated assertiveness

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World (Jan-Mar 2026)

Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)

Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)

An Illegitimate Regime’s Consolidation Game

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)

China’s military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Korea’s security challenges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

China’s External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):

Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2053

Anand V

China’s Domestic Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):

The "Two Sessions," Recalibrated growth targets, Technology prioritization, and Military purges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States (Jan-Mar 2026)

Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trump’s World Order

The World This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2051

TWTW Special Edition

TWTW Special Edition, 350th Issue

THE WORLD THIS QUARTER (Jan-Mar 2026)

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Five: Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trump’s Renewed Threats

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 2043

Abhimanyu Solanki

Escalatory Airpower, Hybrid Retaliation, and Regional Security

Reassessing the Pakistan–Afghanistan Confrontation and Its Implications for India

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

R Preetha

Transnational organized crime, Emerging technologies, Global security environment and ‘Diverse threat vectors’

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2041

Aparna A Nair

China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue

Defence, Diplomacy and Public Security

March 2026 | CWA # 2040

Femy Francis

China's Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War

Why Beijing’s support for Iran is rhetoric and muted

March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting

Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?

March 2026 | CWA # 2038

Anu Maria Joseph

Sudan-Chad tensions and the Boko Haram attack in Nigeria's Maiduguri

March 2026 | CWA # 2037

Padmashree Anandhan

Massive drone attacks, Growing energy leverage and Drifting peace efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2036

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Expanding Israeli Military Operations and the Reshaping of Southern Lebanon

March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation

March 2026 | CWA # 2034

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Three

Multi-front Escalation and Economic Fallouts

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:

Five major challenges for the new government

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2032

Global Politics Team

Trump-Xi Meeting I China Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War I China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue I US Annual Threat Assessment 2026 Takeaways

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 2031

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Three | Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes | Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2030

Siddhi Halyur

State power, Entrenched authoritarian rule, Structural inequalities, Gender Constraints, and Restricted civic space in Middle East

Four Takeaways of the Human Rights Watch Report on the Middle East

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2029

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Economic modernization without political liberalization, Legal systems as instruments of political control, Shrinking civic space and Sports Washing

Five Takeaways of the HRW Report 2026 on the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and the UAE)

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2028

Jayasree

Legislative suppression of dissent, Promotion of patriarchal norms, Forced assimilation of minorities and Censorship in China

Four Takeaways of the HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2027

Rebecca Ann Oommen

Rampant armed conflicts and the Erosion of Democracy in Africa

Five Takeaways of HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2026

Manik Dhawan

Significant setback to Human Rights situation in Europe

Four Takeaways of HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2025

Santhosh Guru PR

Alarming rise of Authoritarianism and Autocracy in the Americas

Five Takeaways of Human Rights Watch Report 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War

UNSC Resolution 2817 between “Clear and Unified Message” and “Manifest Injustice”

March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

China’s Two Sessions 2026

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget

March 2026 | CWA # 2022

Padmashree Anandhan

Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2021

Anu Maria Joseph

Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan

March 2026 | CWA # 2020

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals

March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria

Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment

March 2026 | CWA # 2018

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Two

Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2017

Global Politics Team

China’s Two Sessions | The UNSC Resolution on the US-Iran War

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 2016

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Two | Rising Violence in Nigeria | Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 2015

Global Politics Team

The World Today #275, 10 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2014

Global Politics Team

The World Today #274, 09 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2013

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in South Sudan and the US sanctions on Rwanda

Conflict Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine

Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EU’s energy dependence

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Canada’s PM Mark Carney’s India Visit

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026

The Rise of the “New” and the Fall of the “Old”

March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026

Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2008

Global Politics Team

Canadian PM's India Visit I Nepal Elections and its Political Reset

March 2026 | CWA # 2007

Global Politics Team

The World Today #272, 06 March 2026

The World Today

Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2006

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Election 2026, Day One

Peaceful polling, with over 60 per cent turnout

March 2026 | CWA # 2005

Global Politics Team

The World Today #271, 05 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The “Forgotten” South Sudan Conflict

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement

March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modi’s Visit to Israel

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership

March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

German Chancellor’s China Visit

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

R Preetha

Trump’s State of the Union Address

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran

March 2026 | CWA # 2000

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week One

Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 1999

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week One | The Return of Violence to South Sudan

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan

Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover

February 2026 | CWA # 1997

Padmashree Anandhan

Four Years of War in Ukraine

Continuing Uncertainty

February 2026 | CWA # 1996

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Another round of cross-border attacks

March 2026 | CWA # 1995

Global Politics Team

The World Today #269, 03 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 1994

Global Politics Team

The World Today #268, 02 March 2026

The World Today

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 1993

D Suba Chandran

The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan

Balancing Rhetoric, Regional Interests and Global Alignments

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1992

IPRI Team

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes I Fours Years of Ukraine War

Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

Trump’s State of the Union Address | German Chancellor’s China Visit | India’s PM’s Israel Visit

February 2026 | CWA # 1990

Global Politics Team

The World Today #266, 27 February 2026

The World Today

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1989

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1988

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi

Negotiations without a ceasefire or resolution

February 2026 | CWA # 1987

Akshath Kaimal

Continuing militant attacks in Balochistan

Expanding violence, Security-first response and Missing political dialogue in Pakistan

PR Commentary

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

R Preetha

Pakistan’s Central Asia Boost

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity

PR Commentary

February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan

The return of Basant, and what it signifies

February 2026 | CWA # 1984

Global Politics Team

The World Today #265, 26 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1983

Global Politics Team

The World Today #264, 25 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1982

Global Politics Team

The World Today #263, 24 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1981

Global Politics Team

The World Today #261-262, 23 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1980

Global Politics Team

The World Today #259, 20 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1979

Global Politics Team

The World Today #258, 19 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1978

Global Politics Team

The World Today #256, 17 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria

US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency

February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine

The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry

February 2026 | CWA # 1975

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran Negotiations in Geneva

Ambiguous Conclusions and Escalating Fears of Military Action

February 2026 | CWA # 1974

Lekshmi MK

Munich Security Conference 2026:

Europe’s Security Concerns, Defence Consolidation and Transatlantic Recalibration

February 2026 | CWA # 1973

Yesasvi Koganti

The Global AI Impact Summit in New Delhi:

Six Major Takeaways

PR Explainer

December 2025 | CWA # 1972

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan-Taliban Peace Talks

Background, Issues, Challenges and Implications

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26

Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China

Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1969

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan's Climate Change Challenges

Governance Gaps, Adaptation Deficit, and Climate Finance Vulnerability

PR Explainer

November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US

A New opening, or another cycle?

PR Explainer

November 2025 | CWA # 1967

R Preetha

Pakistan and IMF’s Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment

Risks, Reforms and Trajectories

November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan’s Climate and Water Crisis

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1965

Global Politics Team

AI Impact Summit in New Delhi I Munich Security Conference 2026

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1964

IPRI Team

US-Iran & Ukraine Negotiations in Geneva I US Military Deployment in Nigeria

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1963

Global Politics Team

The World Today #255, 16 February 2026

Today in History

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Japan: Sanae Takaichi’s historic win | Honk Kong: Jimmy Lai Sentenced

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

Sanae Takaichi’s historic win in Japan

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1960

Femy Francis

Jimmy Lai sentenced for 20 years in Hong Kong: Who, What, and Why

CEAP

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China

PM Keir Starmer’s visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties

February 2026 | CWA # 1958

Akshath Kaimal

India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways

The focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals

February 2026 | CWA # 1957

R Preetha

The India–US interim trade framework

Tariff recalibration and Energy and Supply Chain realignment

February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

Erosion of arms control, Return of nuclear anxieties, and the New focus on China

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

End of the New START I India–US interim Trade Framework I India-EU Free Trade Agreement I UK PM Keir Starmer’s China visit

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

February 2026 | CWA # 1954

Nishchal Nath Pandey

Nepal Elections 2026: Political Parties, Gen Z Protests and Hope for a New Beginning

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1953

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

Weekly Columns: Conflicts in Africa and the Middle East

CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East

January 2026 | CWA # 1952

Brighty Ann Sarah

US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa

January 2026 | CWA # 1951

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1950

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine: The Trilateral Talks, and the Deadlock over Donetsk & Security Guarantees for Kyiv

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1949

R Preetha

The United States: ICE Crackdowns, Rising Resistance and the Political/Legal pushback

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1948

ICE Crackdowns and Resistance in the US I Trilateral Talks on Ukraine

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

The Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy: Four major takeaways

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026

Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1944

Brighty Ann Sarah

Syria: The State victory over the Syrian Democratic Forces

Conflict Weekly Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

Another major kidnapping in Nigeria and Election announcement in Guinea-Bissau

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation approach and Europe’s defence

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

The War in Gaza: Trump’s Board of Peace and the Challenges to Phase Two

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

Trump’s “Board of Peace” in Gaza I Escalation/De-escalation in Greenland

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation strategy and Europe’s defence

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1938

Continuing Tensions over Greenland

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trump’s intervention

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1936

Brighty Ann Sarah

Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1935

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran | Instability in Nigeria

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1934

Global Politics Team

The US, Greenland and Trump's Claims

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1933

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran, the US Military Intervention in Venezuela and Conflicts in Africa

NIAS Conflict Weekly | The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1932

Global Politics Team