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CWA # 1936
CW Note
Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position

  Brighty Ann Sarah
15 January 2026

In the news
On 15 January, the US Department of Treasury imposed sanctions on five Iranian officials, including the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and law enforcement forces commander, for the violent crackdown on protesters. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused the leaders of several unlawful transfers of “funds stolen from Iranian families” to international banks and demanded that the regime “stop the violence and stand with the people of Iran.”

On 14 January, following Tehran’s postponement of the execution of an anti-government protester, President Trump stated that certain “very important sources on the other side” had informed him that the government crackdown on protestors was easing and that Washington would pursue a “wait-and-see” response. Trump also expressed his reservations about extending support to Reza Pahlavi, the exiled heir of the former shah, stating that “I don't know how he'd play within his own country, and we really aren't up to that point yet,” adding that “I don't know whether or not his country would accept his leadership.” 

On 13 January, Washington withdrew personnel from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar following Tehran’s warnings that US military bases in neighbouring countries would be treated as “legitimate targets” if the US pursues military intervention. The Revolutionary Guards' Aerospace Commander Majid Mousavi declared that Iran's stockpile of missiles has increased since the 12-day war, and that Tehran was “at the peak of our readiness.”

On the same day, President Trump reiterated his support for the protesters in Tehran, assuring that “help is on its way.” He also announced 25 per cent tariffs on countries trading with Iran.

Issues at large
First, Iran’s history of protests and state responses. Over the last two decades, Iran witnessed several major protest movements. The regime has maintained a similar response of denial, deflection, and brutal repression, internet blackouts to disrupt coordination, attribution to foreign powers, and subsequent show trials or executions to deter future dissent. Massive protests broke out against the 2009 presidential elections, which were marked by accusations of widespread electoral fraud. The protesters disputed the victory of the then-president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The months-long protests met with a severe crackdown and censorship. A similar response was pursued during the November 2019 protests over the rise in fuel prices. The peaceful protest morphed into calls for regime change and was quelled with severe state repression, communication blackouts and mass detentions. 

In 2022, women-led protests under the slogan “Women, Life, Freedom” took over Iran after the alleged custodial torture and death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. She was arrested by the country’s "morality police" for not wearing a hijab properly. The state responded to the protests, one of the largest the country had witnessed, with a violent crackdown. Thousands were arrested, and many were killed, with young protesters sentenced to death in summary trials. 

During the current protests, initially, the regime acknowledged the demands of the protestors as legitimate, diverging from an immediate hardline stance. However, it quickly devolved into violent suppression, claims of external intervention, and media and communication blackouts, with death tolls that dwarfed the previous uprisings. 

Second, the escalating protests and humanitarian concerns. The protests, initially against economic issues, have evolved into demands for regime change and the fall of Khamenei’s rule. Nearly 20 days into the crisis, protests have spread into all 31 provinces in Iran and over 200 cities. As the regime intensifies the crackdown, rights groups, including Amnesty International and the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), have verified at least 2,571 fatalities. Senior Iranian officials have acknowledged around 3,000 deaths, although state media claims about 100 security forces being killed by “rioters.” Over 18,100 arrests have been recorded. The internet and communication blackout continue to disrupt the coordination among the masses. It has additionally constrained media and reporting. 

Third, Iran’s threats of retaliation and shifts in US response. Trump’s latest statement is a shift from his previous threats of military intervention against government repression. His earlier “locked and loaded” remarks signalling a military response and repeated reassurances to the protestors had incited a defensive posture from Tehran. It also threatened retaliatory strikes on several US bases across the region, which spans Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and the UAE. The US military bases in the Middle East were originally established for counterterrorism and ensuring energy security. Washington’s withdrawal of personnel from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the forward headquarters for the US Central Command (CENTCOM) heightens the fear of a military intervention. 

Fourth, global responses and heightened caution. The escalating tensions in Iran, compounded by the US threats, have prompted a state of caution in the region and beyond. Qatar has assumed the role of mediator, fearing an attack within its territory. Saudi Arabia and Oman have affirmed cooperation with Iran. Anxiety over regional instability and the disruption of global oil trade is also high. Trump’s threats of 25 per cent tariffs on countries trading with Iran also have a notable impact. China, Iran’s largest trade partner, has condemned the US threat. Indian suppliers halted the supply of rice and pharmaceuticals to Iran. 

In perspective
Despite the intensifying unrest and increasing demands for regime change, Iran’s administration has remained united, diminishing the scope of a transition driven by internal fragmentation. Sustained and escalating state repression is likely to quell protests in the short term. However, the unrest has exposed significant cracks in the regime’s control over society, underscoring widespread frustration that extends into its traditional support bases. Increasing calls for the restoration of the monarchy, along with visible support for Reza Pahlavi, further challenge the regime’s political cohesion. Washington’s threats also add to the regime's instability. 

Even if the protests are ultimately contained and the regime endures, the faultlines of the administration have been revealed. With sanctions remaining in place and economic recovery expected to be slow, a return to political stability and economic normalcy will be difficult. As a result, sporadic episodes of civil unrest are likely to persist unless substantive administrative reforms are undertaken.

About the author
Brighty Ann Sarah is a postgraduate student at Stella Maris College, Chennai.

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