CW Note

CWA # 1937
CW Note
Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trump’s intervention

Anu Maria Joseph
15 January 2026
Photo Source: AP Photo

What happened this week?
On 13 January, Reuters reported that the US delivered critical military supplies to Nigeria to support its fight against Islamic State militants. The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) stated that the delivery will support "Nigeria's ongoing operations and emphasises our shared security partnership."

On 13 January, the Nigerian government told the BBC that more than 200 Bandits were killed in central Nigeria in an ongoing operation.

On 9 January, US President Donald Trump said that he could order more strikes on Nigeria if Christians continue to be killed. He said: "I'd love to make it a one-time strike. But if they continue to kill Christians it will be a many-time strike." Meanwhile, Nigeria's spokesperson to the foreign ministry responded to BBC: We will continue to engage constructively and work with partners, including the United States, on the basis of mutual respect, international law, and Nigeria's sovereignty. Nigeria remains committed to protecting all citizens, Christians and Muslims alike, without discrimination."

What are the issues?
Nigeria: Intensification of domestic military operations, deepening Nigeria-US security cooperation and sovereignty sensitivities
Nigeria's peripheral regions, particularly in the north-western areas, have long faced security challenges due to a weak state presence. Banditry in these states, especially Niger, has continued despite renewed efforts by the Nigerian government to address the issue. 30 people were killed, and several were abducted in Kasuwan Daji market in Niger state on 6 January. In Kano state, thousands fled amidst fear of being killed by bandits this week. Spreading banditry also came after the US carried out an IS-targeted attack on Sokoto state, which prompted armed groups to flee and spread to other states.

Meanwhile, AFRICOM's assistance to Nigeria is part of a shared security partnership that highlights Nigeria's importance in US counterterrorism efforts in West Africa. It also reflects Nigeria's strategic and tactical military reliance on the US to counter jihadists/insurgents/bandit attacks across the country. However, the long-term capacity of this short-term assistance is uncertain. Besides, Trump has linked US military attacks as a response to the killing of Christians in the country, despite Nigerian President Bola Tinubu clarifying that the targets are not exclusively Christians. 

Trump's statements and stance suggesting further possible US strikes highlight the increasing sovereignty concerns in Abuja. Trump's religious framing, threats of unilateral actions and Nigeria's incapacity and dependence on US security assistance have increased fears of creating a perception of external leverage over the country's internal security issues. 

What does it mean?
The intensified domestic response to the security issues in Nigeria marks a positive development. However, these developments appear to be substantially dependent on the US support. The US-Nigeria security cooperation alone is unlikely to address the multifactor security crisis in Nigeria. A long-term security will depend on local response, presence of state forces and technical and military capacity to respond on time. Meanwhile, the continued scale of banditry suggests the challenge of durable security improvements, particularly in areas with weak governance and local grievances. Besides, Trump’s stance and increasing sovereignty concerns imply that Nigeria needs to balance security cooperation and external control over domestic security policies. 

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is an independent scholar from Kerala.


PREVIOUS COMMENTS

CW Explainer
October 2026 | CWA # 2319

Akshath Kaimal

Africa's recurring Ebola problem:
Why the DRC's latest outbreak has become so severe? And why containing it remains a challenge?
CW Note
July 2026 | CWA # 2206

Akshath Kaimal

The resurgence of Somali piracy:
Sophisticated tactics, Regional instability and an Ineffective international response
CW Column
July 2026 | CWA # 2182

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa This Week
JNIM-FLA coordinated attacks in Mali and the RSF siege in Sudan
CW Column: Africa This Week
June 2026 | CWA # 2158

Anu Maria Joseph

CW Column
June 2026 | CWA # 2129

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa This Week:
The Ebola fear in DR Congo and the Elections in Ethiopia amidst conflicts
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal

The Ebola and the DR Congo:
Multiple Outbreaks, Fragile Healthcare System, and Ineffective Global Responses
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2103

Akshath Kaimal

Complex Geography, Multiple Insurgencies, and an Escalating Humanitarian Crisis
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
Special Commentary
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
CW Note
August 2025 | CWA # 1795

Anu Maria Joseph

Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1674

Anu Maria Joseph

NIAS Africa Studies
April 2025 | CWA # 1642

Esther Gamako Zugwai

NIAS Africa Studies
March 2025 | CWA # 1639

Anu Maria Joseph

NIAS Africa Studies
January 2025 | CWA # 1594

Ayan Datta

NIAS Africa Studies
November 2024 | CWA # 1544

Ayan Datta

NIAS Africa Studies
August 2024 | CWA # 1445

Anu Maria Joseph

NIAS Africa Studies
August 2024 | CWA # 1444

Ayan Datta

NIAS Africa Studies
August 2024 | CWA # 1442

Vetriselvi Baskaran

NIAS Africa Studies
August 2024 | CWA # 1427

Ken B Varghese

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS AFRICA STUDIES
November 2023 | CWA # 1149

Sneha Surendran

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
August 2023 | CWA # 1045

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS AFRICA STUDIES
August 2023 | CWA # 1043

Sneha Surendran

NIAS AFRICA STUDIES
August 2023 | CWA # 1042

Nithyashree RB

NIAS AFRICA STUDIES
August 2023 | CWA # 1038

Anu Maria Joseph

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
August 2023 | CWA # 1036

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
August 2023 | CWA # 1024

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
June 2023 | CWA # 977

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS AFRICA STUDIES
June 2023 | CWA # 976

Jerry Franklin

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
April 2023 | CWA # 943

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
March 2023 | CWA # 919

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
January 2023 | CWA # 891

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS Africa Studies
July 2022 | CWA # 769

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS Africa Weekly
July 2022 | CWA # 756

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS Africa Weekly
June 2022 | CWA # 751

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS Africa Weekly
June 2022 | CWA # 743

NIAS Africa Team

NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
NIAS Africa Monitor
March 2022 | CWA # 696

Nireekshan Bollimpalli 

NIAS Africa Monitor
September 2021 | CWA # 560

Apoorva Sudhakar

NIAS Africa Monitor
July 2021 | CWA # 512

Mohamad Aseel Ummer