Conflict Weekly

CWA # 2016
Conflict Weekly
The US-Iran War, Week Two | Rising Violence in Nigeria | Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation
Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa
Conflict Weekly #323, 13 March 2026

IPRI Team
14 March 2026

Photo Source: France24, AFP, AP

Conflict Weekly Focus Note
The US-Iran War, Week Two:
Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout
Rohini Reenum

In the news
The US-Israeli offensive
Between 5 and 12 March, the US and Israel continued the heavy bombardment of Iran, especially its capital, Tehran, with targets expanding from military and strategic sites to energy infrastructure.

On 10 March, the U.S. Central Command claimed to have “eliminated” 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. On 12 March, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said approximately 6,000 targets had been struck in Iran since the War began. On the same day, CENTCOM claimed that 90 Iranian vessels were damaged or destroyed, including more than 60 ships and over 30 mine-laying vessels.

Iranian Response
Between 7 and 11 March, Iran launched waves of drones and missiles at critical facilities, including Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field and the Abadan refinery. On 10 March, Saudi Arabia announced that it had intercepted six ballistic missiles targeting Prince Sultan Air Base and several drones over the eastern city of Hafar al-Batin. On the same day, a swarm of Iranian drones struck the Ruwais industrial city in Abu Dhabi, forcing the state oil giant ADNOC to shut down the refinery as a precautionary measure. On 11 March, multiple drones struck fuel storage tanks at the Port of Salalah and Duqm, in Oman, causing massive fires. On the same day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran remained committed to regional peace and outlined three conditions to end the war: “recognition of Tehran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression.”

On 12 March, Iran's UN Ambassador said that Tehran was not going to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, but added that it was Iran's right to preserve the security of the key shipping route. On the same day, in his first televised address, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to “avenge the blood” of Iranians killed in the current War, advised the Gulf countries not to host US bases, and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Developments at the United Nations
On 12 March, the UN Security Council voted in favour of a resolution sponsored by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and co-sponsored by a record 135 member states, demanding “immediate cessation” of attacks by Iran against Gulf countries and Jordan. The resolution also termed these attacks “a breach of international law and a serious threat to international peace and security.” The resolution also acknowledged the right of these countries to respond, either individually or collectively, under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Further, it condemned Iran’s attempts to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab Al Mandab. The resolution, however, made no reference to the US-Israeli aggression, leading Russia to abstain and terming the text “extremely unbalanced." China also abstained, reasoning that the text did not adequately reflect “the broader dynamics of the conflict.”

On the same day, Russia introduced a draft resolution urging “all parties,” without naming them, to immediately stop military activities and refrain from further escalation. The resolution received four votes in favour, two against, and nine abstentions.

Issues at large
1. A brief note on the role of the Supreme Leader and the process of his election
The post was created following the 1979 Iranian Revolution and instituted as the office of “rahbar,” meaning “leader.” The Constitution recognizes the Leader as the highest authority in the country. He is the head of state and commander in chief of the army and wields wide-ranging powers; he oversees the appointment and dismissal of important government and military officials, like the highest commanders of the armed forces and security bodies, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the head of the state broadcaster, the head of the judiciary, and the chief of general staff. He also determines the general political direction of the government, and is solely responsible for declaring war, peace, and mobilization of the armed forces, and approves the appointment of the President after the election. The Leader is elected by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is a deliberative body mandated with overseeing the Supreme Leader’s worthiness to lead the country. The members of the Assembly are elected every eight years by the Guardian Council, half of whose members are appointed by the Supreme Leader and the other half recommended by the Head of the Judiciary (who is himself a Leader-appointee).

2. Tehran’s expanding targets and threats
During the second week of the 2026 conflict, Tehran dramatically expanded its target list, shifting from a narrow focus on military assets. Like the first week, Tehran has continued its diffused attacks across the Middle East, targeting primarily the Gulf countries alongside Israel, Iraq, and Jordan. However, from restricting its attacks on US and allied military installations in the earlier week, Iran has now also started targeting energy infrastructure. Reports have also confirmed an attack on the Dubai International Airport. Iran has also started attacking vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened to lay mines. This has driven the price of crude oil past the USD 100 mark. Additionally, it has issued warnings to tech giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia as “future targets,” highlighting their role in supporting the US-Israeli campaign.

3. America’s shifting goalposts
While earlier announcing that the War would last four to five weeks, followed by an assertion that the US was prepared for a longer conflict, Trump has become increasingly evasive about any timeline for the war's conclusion. Interestingly, in his latest remarks, Trump has claimed that the War was pretty much over, citing the destruction of the Iranian Navy and Air Force. This is even though his other war objectives announced earlier are far from being achieved. Earlier claims of an active pursuit of regime change have taken a back seat, with Trump expressing only his displeasure with the non-consultation in selecting the new Supreme Leader. Trump has also, without providing any concrete evidence, claimed that the Iranian Navy and Air Force have been decimated and that the new supreme leader has been removed.

4. The significance of drone warfare
The use of drone warfare gained particular momentum since the start of the Ukraine War and has continued as a dominant strategy since. The low-cost, low-casualty weapon has become an important tool in asymmetric wars. Along with ballistic missiles, Iran has relied heavily on its drone capabilities to sustain pressure across the Middle East and raise the cost of war. Tehran’s drone strategy has relied on the principle of mass usage, wherein it uses high volumes of low-cost drones in attack waves to overwhelm sophisticated and expensive air defense systems. For instance, to shoot down a USD 30,000 drone, a USD 4 million Patriot interceptor is used, which is indicative of Iran using exhaustion tactics. The drone waves also serve as bait for radar systems, forcing defenders to engage and reveal their positions. Given this dynamic, reportedly, Ukrainian military experts (who have massive experience in tackling Iranian drones being used by Russia) have arrived in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to help them defend against drones. A BBC report also suggested that other Ukrainian experts are helping the US do the same in Jordan.

5.  Faultlines at the UN
During the second week of the conflict, the United Nations became a battleground for competing diplomatic narratives and brought to light international geopolitical faultlines. The overwhelming acceptance of the resolution tabled by the Gulf countries, supported by 135 UN General Assembly members, is indicative of the wider support for the GCC countries and Tehran’s diplomatic isolation. On the other hand, Russian and Chinese abstentions versus vetoes also indicate the limited extent of their diplomatic support for Iran at multilateral forums.

In perspective
First, in the second week, the Iran War has metastasized from a terrestrial military campaign, engulfing the region, into an evolving maritime-economic conflict. With Iran’s Supreme Leader and other officials at the helm, communicating defiance and demonstrating the capability to stick out a war of attrition, any hope of immediate negotiation with the US seems unlikely. This unlikelihood is compounded by President Trump’s trumpeting of war victory, threats of intensified attacks, and zero hints at a diplomatic turnabout.

Second, the international community has also failed to respond to the War in a balanced manner, generating global economic ramifications. By singling out Iranian attacks as “egregious,” without recognizing the role played by the US-Israel duo in sparking them, the international community has not only failed to address the nuances and contours of this decades-long rivalry but brought into question which countries can act in self-defense and which cannot, creating a hierarchy of legitimacy. This asymmetry of international legal application does not bode well for the role the United Nations was instituted to play for the cause of international peace and security.

 

Conflict Weekly Focus Note
Rising Violence in Nigeria:
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
Akshath Kaimal

In the news
On 06 March, the BBC reported that “massive” numbers of civilians had been killed by armed men in Ngoshe in Borno state, in northeast Nigeria. While the Nigerian senator who spoke to the BBC did not quote a figure, a local journalist in Borno confirmed that many people had been killed and hundreds abducted.

On 10 March, Africa News and the Associated Press reported that Jihadist groups, in particular Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), were found to have launched intensified attacks targeting military bases in Borno and Yobe states and the wider Lake Chad region.

On 11 March, The Guardian reported that at least 65 Nigerian soldiers were killed in attacks by ISWAP across the country’s northeast over the last two weeks. Militants also abducted 300 civilians, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED).

Issues at large
1. Nigeria’s complex security landscape
Nigeria faces multiple security issues. It has been experiencing a decades-long insurgency in the northeast part, primarily led by Islamist groups Boko Haram and ISWAP in Borno and Yobe states. In the northwest, armed men, locally known as bandits, have been carrying out killings and ransom kidnappings. Lakurawa, another militant group, has also been perpetrating violence in the northwest. In the Middle Belt, Fulani Muslim herders have been attacking farmers belonging to both Christian and Muslim communities. Nigeria’s diverse geography and porous borders allow militant groups to spread across freely. Nigeria has also been fighting separatist movements in the southeast part of the country, which has primarily been led by the Indigenous People of Biafra. Additionally, analysts warn that Al-Qaeda and Islamic State-linked groups are also gaining prominence in the northwest and central regions of the country.

2. A brief note on the actors and the rising violence
The latest attacks took place in Borno and Yobe states in the northeast, where Boko Haram and ISWAP are the main actors. Boko Haram came into prominence in 2009, when it waged an insurgency against the Nigerian government to set up an Islamic State. In 2014-15, the group split into two, with the second group renaming itself ISWAP. Boko Haram have been known for its indiscriminate attacks on civilians and mass kidnappings. ISWAP, on the other hand, has also employed similar tactics, but has focused more on attacking military troops and infrastructure. Violence by these actors has been steadily rising, with nearly 800 incidents of violence reported in 2025, as compared to 610 incidents in 2024 and around 520 in 2023, according to ACLED. In 2026, the violence had spread to Kwara, Niger and Katsina states, with villages in all three states reporting incidents of killing and kidnapping by the two groups. Fighting between the two groups also sharply increased in 2025, adding to the general rise in violence in the region.

3. The limited capacity of the state
The Nigerian state has responded to the rising violence with multiple operations. Several of these operations have been successful in neutralising terrorist attacks, but security resources are being increasingly stretched due to two main factors. One simultaneous, overlapping crisis across Nigeria makes it difficult for security resources to reach all areas of the country, particularly remote areas. Two, limited infrastructure -  particularly in rural areas - porous borders with neighbouring Niger and Chad and the difficult terrain of the Lake Chad region further complicates the security response. Nigeria has received support from the United States, which also conducted airstrikes on militant groups. Still, the state response has been largely inadequate and ineffective due to the military's limited capacity.

4. Increased civilian casualties and the worsening humanitarian situation
Since 2009, over 350,000 people have been killed, while nearly 3.5 million have been displaced. In 2025, according to ACLED, 11,698 people were killed across the country in violent incidents, representing a 20 per cent increase over 2024 and nearly 40 per cent over 2023. Over 1000 were killed by Boko Haram and ISWAP alone in the northeast, and hundreds of thousands have also been displaced. The UN also found that in 2026, around 5.9 million people are projected to have severe to extreme humanitarian needs in the northeast states, with women and children accounting for 80 per cent of those needing assistance.

In perspective
First, violence is expected to continue increasing. The two groups have already begun carrying out major attacks on civilians and military infrastructure in 2026. With both of them - ISWAP in particular - growing more sophisticated in their attacks, security forces will be facing an even more complicated insurgency. Additionally, the rise of other groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State means incidents of violence are bound to continue increasing in 2026, especially as the state response remains inadequate and largely dependent on the US.

Second, the humanitarian crisis is likely to get worse. Over 130 million Nigerians - 63 per cent of the country’s population - live in multidimensional poverty. The worsening security situation, combined with US aid cuts, will leave more people reliant on humanitarian aid. Civilian casualties are also likely to increase, continuing the trend of rising numbers over the last few years. Attacks on farmers and destruction of crops and farmland also pose a serious threat to the humanitarian situation in the northeast.

 

Conflict Weekly Focus Note
Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation:
Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals
Brighty Ann Sarah

In the news
On 02 March, in response to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah launched strikes at Israel’s missile defence systems in the southern city of Haifa. Israel retaliated by carrying out "precise and targeted" strikes against "senior terrorist elements” of Hezbollah in Beirut. The strikes killed Hezbollah's intelligence chief, Hussain Makled and over 300 civilians.

On the same day, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned Hezbollah’s actions as “illegal,” and proscribed the group's military actions. He reiterated the government's full readiness to resume negotiations with Israel.

On 04 March, Israeli forces began ground incursions in Lebanon, taking over strategic areas. Lebanon, after the population was issued immediate evacuation orders. Hezbollah Chief Naim Qassem asserted that the group “will not surrender no matter the sacrifices.”

On 10 March, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun called for direct negotiations with Israel with a four-point plan for a “complete truce,” but demanded the halt of Israeli strikes before any talks. He also levelled sharp criticism against Hezbollah for dragging the country into war.

On 11 March, the Financial Times reported that Israel had rejected Lebanon’s demands, insisting that all negotiations take place “under fire.”

Issues at large
1. The Hezbollah-Iran equation
Hezbollah emerged as a Shiite movement ideologically inspired by Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Its ideology is rooted in Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini's theological theories that demand expulsion of Western influence, destruction of Israel, allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader and establishment of an Islamic state. Funded and trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah positions itself as a “resistance” movement against Zionism and Western imperialism.

2. The Israel-Hezbollah conflict
The Hezbollah-Israel conflict started with the latter’s 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon. In 2006, a UN-brokered ceasefire and Resolution created a demilitarised buffer zone between Lebanon’s southern border and Israel along the Blue Line and the Litani River. The conflict renewed in October 2023, when Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, sparking nearly a year of border clashes and the killing of long-standing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Under a US brokered ceasefire in November 2024, Hezbollah was to withdraw north of the Litani River and disarm, while Israel was to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon and allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to take control. The latest outbreak is a complete violation of the ceasefire agreement, launching both states into a full-blown war.

3. The Hezbollah inside Lebanon
Hezbollah is a major political actor in Lebanon, supported by the Shia community and capitalising on widespread grievances over political and economic marginalization by the country’s Sunni and Christian elites. It also grew its support base by delivering social services more effectively than the chronically weak Lebanese government, including hospitals, schools, post-war reconstruction, and even its own micro-finance institutions, gaining grassroots loyalty unlike any other Lebanese faction. Hezbollah’s major political sway has impeded the administration from exercising control over the group and defers to the group on security matters in Shia-majority regions. However, since the 2024 ceasefire agreement, the administration has taken bolder moves towards curbing the group's militant activities, even attempting to disarm the faction and centralise the flow of weapons in the country. The government’s latest rebuke is the harshest condemnation, revealing the rift between the state and Hezbollah.

5. Significance of southern Lebanon
Southern Lebanon, sharing its borders with Israel, is strategically vital for Hezbollah, with the rugged terrain suited for guerrilla warfare. It has long been the theatre of Israeli-Hezbollah confrontations with major Israeli cities, including Haifa, Safed, and Nahariya, within range of attack. Israel also claims that Hezbollah has extensive military infrastructure across the area, including underground munitions factories, command bunkers and tunnel networks. The region is also home to a major Shia population and a Hezbollah stronghold. The Litani River, Lebanon’s largest river and a major source of water, also flows through the region. Israel perceives it as its natural border and insists that Hezbollah does not breach the Blue Line and cross beyond the river. Israel’s current ground operation is designed to dismantle Hezbollah’s military assets, depopulate the area and establish a secure buffer zone along the Litani River.

In perspective
The renewed conflict has provided Israel with a long-sought strategic opening to pursue its goal of eliminating Hezbollah as a military threat. Israel is unlikely to pursue diplomatic means with Lebanon and forgo the opportunity to militarily defeat the group, particularly since the administration lacks the capacity to disarm and neutralise the group.

The conflict threatens Hezbollah’s military role, already severely weakened by its previous confrontation with Israel. The group is also facing an unprecedented hardline stance from the administration that is likely to worsen. With Israel’s refusal to negotiate a ceasefire, Beirut is trapped in a highly constrained and precarious position.

 

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa
Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan
Anu Maria Joseph

In the news
1. Madagascar
On 10 March, Madagascar's military leader, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, dissolved the government and dismissed the prime minister and the cabinet. Randrianirina's spokesperson stated: "The government has ceased its functions" and that a new prime minister will be appointed "in line with the provisions stipulated by the constitution." The military did not give any reason for the dismissal.

2. South Sudan
On 8 March, according to Al Jazeera, 160 people, including 90 civilians, were killed when armed men attacked a village in northern South Sudan's Abiemnom county. The village's administration blamed the White Army, a militia allied to opposition leader Reik Machar and his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) party.

On the same day, Al Jazeera reported that thousands of civilians fled eastern South Sudan, especially from the town of Akobo bordering Ethiopia, after the army ordered evacuation ahead of a potential military offensive. According to humanitarian officials in the region, women and children have fled to Ethiopia, and machine guns have arrived in Akobo town.

Issues at large
1. Madagascar: The consolidation of a military government following the October 2025 Gen Z protests
An elite wing of Madagascar's military, CAPSAT, took over power from President Andry Rajoelina in October 2025 following weeks of Gen Z protests. Businessman Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo was appointed as interim prime minister to serve as a bridge between the military leadership and the civilian government. Following the military takeover, Randrianirina promised elections within two years. The military’s latest move points to internal tensions within the transitional government. It also raises concerns that the military may consolidate power.

The October 2025 Gen Z-led protests, which led to the fall of Rajoelina’s government, initially focused on frequent power cuts and water shortages. Later, it turned into anti-government protests over unemployment and bad governance. Gen Z successfully mobilised the masses massively through social media platforms and toppled the corrupt regime. Although the protest delegitimised the ruling government, the leadership vacuum was immediately filled by the military. Not only did the protest fail to achieve its core objectives, but it also failed to establish a regime that listens to the generation's demands.

2. South Sudan: Increasing tensions and violence
Since last week, the tensions in South Sudan have multiplied. The BBC reported that more than 170 people were killed in the Ruweng region in an attack by the SPLA-IO on 3 March. Until February, the attacks were concentrated in Jonglei state. However, the latest developments point to a rapid spread of violence across the country.

The clashes are linked to a years-long power struggle between President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Reik Machar. In 2013, this power struggle triggered a civil war, which ended with a permanent ceasefire and power-sharing agreement in 2018. However, the provisions of the agreement were never reached. The factions never fully integrated and unified, reforms were delayed, and presidential elections were repeatedly postponed. Now, Kiir accuses the forces led by Machar of plotting a coup. Distrust between factions and the arrest of Machar and his allies in September 2025 have resulted in another wave of violence across the country, pushing the country to the brink of another civil war.

In perspective
In Madagascar, the dismissal of the transitional civilian institutions points to a contested and unstable political transition. It reflects the military's control over the civilian leadership. With the absence of pressure from the Gen Z movement, which catalysed the fall of Rajoelina's government, the military leadership is likely to consolidate its power.

In South Sudan, intense violence has resumed across the country rather than isolated skirmishes. This week's developments suggest that violence is likely to intensify alongside its geographic and demographic spread, with fears of another civil war.


CW Column: The War in Ukraine
Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts
Padmashree Anandhan

In the news
War on the ground
On 08 March, Russia and Ukraine exchanged competing claims about battlefield progress. Ukrainian officials said their forces had retaken significant territory during counteroffensives in the south-eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, while Russia’s President Vladimir Putin claimed Russian troops had expanded control in eastern Donbas.

On 10 March, Russia continued strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, targeting an oil pumping station in Ukraine’s Odesa region for the second consecutive day. Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz said Russia had attacked its infrastructure more than 30 times as of 2026, describing the strikes as attempts to disrupt alternative energy supply routes to Europe.

On 11 March, Russia condemned a Ukrainian missile strike on Bryansk city located in the border. Regional authorities reported seven dead and several injured.

On 11 March, a dispute between Ukraine and Hungary deepened over the Druzhba oil pipeline carrying Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia. Hungary’s government said it had dispatched a delegation for talks on reopening the pipeline, but Ukraine denied. Hungary and Slovakia accuse Ukraine of delaying repairs following damage caused by Russian strikes in January.

Moscow view
On 09 March, following the surge in oil prices, Putin announced that Russia was ready to supply oil and gas conditionally. He said: “If European companies and European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves and provide us with long-term, sustainable cooperation, free from political pressures, free from political pressures, then yes, we’ve never refused it. We’re ready to work with Europeans too.”

The West view
On 09 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was ready to participate in another round of US-brokered peace talks with Russia at any time. The US has proposed new negotiations that could take place in Switzerland or Turkey after earlier plans for talks in the UAE were disrupted by the Middle East conflict. Zelenskyy said prisoner exchanges could be part of the discussions.

Issues at large
1. Ukraine-Russia attacks in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Bryansk Oblasts
Russian forces continued large-scale missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure, oil facilities and urban centres such as Kharkiv and Sloviansk. Strikes on Naftogaz infrastructure in the Odesa region highlight Russia's continued focus on energy logistics and alternative supply. At the same time, Ukraine’s forces conducted long-range strikes inside Russian territory. Ukraine's military confirmed the use of UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to attack a plant producing components for Russian missile systems in the Bryansk region. Additional drone strikes targeted military infrastructure and airports across southern Russia. These exchanges show the shift in the war on the ground from a rapid front-line fight to targeted attacks on industrial, logistical, and energy facilities.

2. The inconsistent US-led peace diplomacy
The US continues to propose new rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. While it has framed these initiatives as progress toward ending the war, Ukraine and Moscow have described recent talks as difficult and inconclusive. At the same time, other US policy moves, such as temporarily easing certain oil-related sanctions to stabilise global energy markets during the Iran conflict, risk sending mixed signals about pressure on Russia. The result is a diplomatic process that continues to exist but is yet to produce tangible steps toward a ceasefire or settlement.

3. Increasing Ukraine’s drone warfare expertise
Ukraine’s experience countering Iranian-designed Shahed drones is now being shared with Gulf states and other partners facing similar threats. Ukrainian drone interception technologies are also attracting international demand, indicating that Ukraine’s battlefield innovations are influencing broader security cooperation.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS.
Akshath K is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at NIAS and is currently pursuing post-graduation at Stella Maris College.
Padmashree Anandan is a Project Associate at NIAS.
Anu Maria Joseph was a Project Associate at NIAS.


Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week
Regional Roundups
Abhimanyu Solanki, Adwitiyo Das, Aishal Yousaf, Akshath K, Glynnis Winona Beschi, Kirsten Wilfred Coelho, Lekshmi MK, R. Preetha, Siddhi Haylur, Sreemaya Nair, Tonica Sharon C, Vani Vaishnavi Jupudi, Vishal Manish M, Yesasvi Koganti

South, Southeast and East Asia
Pakistan: Police detain Aurat March activists ahead of Women’s Day rally in Islamabad
On 08 March, Dawn reported that Islamabad police detained dozens of women’s rights activists, including members of the Aurat March, ahead of an International Women’s Day rally in the federal capital. Police sources said participants gathered near the Super Market in Sector F-6 and planned to reach the National Press Club, where a heavy police presence arrested marchers and shifted them to the Women’s Police Station. Authorities confirmed 44 detentions, including 19 women and 25 men, citing the imposition of Section 144 and the denial of a no-objection certificate for the event. Prominent activist Dr Farzana Bari and Tahira Abdullah were among those held. Aurat March Islamabad condemned the action, stating: “We strongly condemn the arrests of participants who were peacefully exercising their right to protest.”

Sri Lanka: Naval rescue operation in progress after Iranian warship distress signal
On 04 March, the Daily Mirror reported that Sri Lanka launched a rescue operation after the Iranian naval vessel IRIS Dena issued a distress call and sank within Sri Lanka’s maritime search and rescue zone south of the island. The Sri Lankan Navy and Air Force deployed ships and aircraft to rescue the crew, who were then taken ashore for further medical attention. The incident occurred amidst heightened tensions in the Middle East. Authorities indicated that Sri Lanka will continue to monitor developments closely given the country’s strategic position along major shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean Region.

Sri Lanka: “No Blood for Oil” protests in Colombo
On March 06, the Daily Mirror reported that a protest under the slogan “No Blood for Oil” took place in Colombo, with activists and citizens expressing dissent and discontent over the recent military strikes in the Middle East. The protesters perceived these actions as attempts to control energy resources. The protest called on the Sri Lankan government to reiterate its historically non-aligned foreign policy stance and avoid any form of entanglement in overseas conflicts driven by interests in energy resources. The demonstration also signifies growing public anxiety over geopolitical spill-over effects on Sri Lanka. These include potential economic risks such as fuel price inflation and disruption to trade and travel. The Sri Lankan government is also concerned with its strategic position in the Indian Ocean region in the backdrop of the IRIS Dena, the Iranian naval warship being targeted in the Indian Ocean.

Afghanistan: UN reports wide-scale Afghan displacement
On 06 March, Reuters reported that while the Pakistani and Afghan troops continue to exchange border fire along the Durand Line, over 115,000 people have been displaced in Afghanistan. The fight has involved widespread violence, with Pakistani forces succeeding in conducting air strikes on Taliban government installations, including the Bagram air base. Islamabad commented that their most recent strikes have targeted Kandahar, which is often considered a heartland for the Taliban group. Several families living at the border have stated that heavy firing post sunset has disturbed the peace that once existed during the breaking of fast, considering that this is the holy month of Ramadan. Towns like Torkham have ground to a halt with barely any movement among residents.

Afghanistan: Afghan asylum seekers struggle at foreign detention centres
On 11 March, Hasht e Subh reported that several Afghan asylum seekers who are currently awaiting immigration decisions at detention centres in Poland are facing a range of human and health rights violations. Lack of legal support, health care and regular meals has worsened their conditions. Some elderly and sick asylum seekers are also finding it hard to live in significantly cramped rooms. Many of them claim that they were assured to be released after a period of three months by their interpreters, but Polish authorities state that they could be held up to 18 months in detention. Some have even raised concerns about violations of Polish and European Union laws arising from the poor condition of the facilities offered to them.

Myanmar: WHO urges protection and support for women amid ongoing crisis
On 09 March, Mizzima reported that the World Health Organization issued a statement highlighting the severe challenges faced by women and girls in Myanmar on International Women’s Day. The organization warned that ongoing conflict, displacement, and collapsing essential services have placed immense burdens on women, who are increasingly taking on leadership roles to sustain families and communities. While praising their resilience, the statement stressed that women’s rights to protection, justice, healthcare, and meaningful participation must be upheld at all times. It also called for urgent action to address rising gender-based violence, limited access to health and education, and the growing psychological toll on women and girls, urging greater support for women-led organizations and stronger inclusion of women in decision-making about the country’s future.

Myanmar: Conflict fuels drug surge in Golden Triangle region
On 10 March, Irrawaddy reported that the escalating civil war in Myanmar has fuelled a surge in drug production and trafficking across the Golden Triangle, worsening addiction and social hardship in northern Thailand. The region, once the world’s largest opium hub during the conflicts of the 1960s and 1970s, has seen renewed drug activity since the 2021 Myanmar military coup triggered ongoing conflict. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, opium cultivation and methamphetamine production in Myanmar have sharply increased, with drugs being smuggled through Thailand toward international markets. Research by Chiang Mai University indicates that hard-drug use in Thailand’s eight northern provinces has more than tripled since 2019, affecting vulnerable communities such as the Lahu hill tribe. Limited economic opportunities and language barriers have pushed some residents into drug-related work, while local organizations and community groups attempt to steer young people away from trafficking and addiction.

Myanmar: Junta captures last resistance stronghold in Mandalay region
On 11 March, The Irrawaddy reported that Myanmar’s military junta captured what was considered the last resistance stronghold in the Mandalay region. This comes after sustained clashes with the anti-junta resistance forces. The area was held by resistance groups aligned with the broader anti-military movement that took shape after the 2021 coup led by Min Aung Hlaing. This has been reported as a tactical gain for the military, though resistance operations still continue across several parts of the country.

Middle East and Africa
The Iran War and the US: Senate rejects effort to limit the President’s war powers
On 05 March, the US Senate rejected a resolution that sought to curb President Trump’s authority to continue military action against Iran without congressional approval. The resolution failed in the Senate by a 53-47 vote. The resolution was introduced by Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who argued the Constitution gives Congress the authority to decide when a country goes to war. Ahead of the vote, Kaine stated that lawmakers should “debate and vote on matters of war and peace.” Most Democrats supported the proposal, arguing that Congress must have a direct role in decisions involving military conflict. However, the majority of the Republicans voted to block the measure, allowing the president to continue directing military operations against Iran. Opponents of the resolution defended the president’s authority as commander-in-chief and argued that limiting the president during an ongoing conflict could weaken US military operations. Although the resolution failed, the debate has intensified scrutiny of presidential war powers.

The Iran War and Energy: Oil, Gas and Shipping get disrupted; Asia suffers more
On 05 March, according to various media reports, the ongoing US-Iran war has disrupted energy markets by blocking oil and natural gas shipments, leading to global price escalation. Since the war started, the price of Brent crude oil has jumped 15 per cent to about USD 84 a barrel, the highest price since July 2024. Even though the US offers insurance to help shipping companies, the disruptions are cascading as wealthier nations outbid poorer ones for scarce cargoes, leaving vulnerable economies to face fuel shortages. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan rely on imports for almost their entire energy supply and consider the current instability to be a severe threat, even with existing strategic stockpiles in place. Japan imported 2.34 million barrels of crude per day in January, about 95 per cent of its total imports; South Korea gets around 70 per cent of its crude oil and 20 per cent of its LNG from the Middle East. The stakes are similarly high for China and India as their industrial and transportation sectors face significant disruption as well. While China may utilize Russian exports, other regional players lack such alternatives. Countries like Thailand and the Philippines have implemented fuel rationing and restricted non-essential travel to preserve domestic reserves, which are projected to last only 61 days. If the conflict persists, the combination of high energy costs and rising interest rates could push global economic growth toward a standstill.

Israel and Hezbollah: Israel warns Beirut of "a heavy price" amid heavy bombardment
On 07 March, Israel warned Lebanon of "a heavy price" if it did not disarm Hezbollah by enforcing a 2024 agreement. It is also continuously pounding the group’s strongholds in the southern suburbs of Beirut with airstrikes after Hezbollah fired at Israel amid the Iran crisis, dragging Lebanon into the conflict. A rare airborne operation was also conducted near the town of Nabi Chit in the Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah claimed that it had fired on Israeli troops, but the Israeli military said that none of its forces were injured. Forty-one people had been killed in the Nabi Chit area, two hundred across Lebanon, and 300,000 people have been displaced due to Israeli attacks. Hezbollah warned Israeli citizens living near the border to flee their homes.

On 12 March, Hezbollah intensified strikes against Israel, announcing Operation “Eaten Straw,” launching more than 100 missiles at Israeli targets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said later that they had carried out some strikes with Hezbollah, “in a joint and integrated operation.” The strikes targeted areas including Israeli military bases in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Beersheba. In retaliation, Israel battered Beirut's southern suburbs. Israel has also turned down the Lebanese administration's demands to halt the attack and initiate negotiations, asserting that the talks happen “under fire.”

 

SPECIAL: THE US-IRAN WAR
DAY-06
Bombing of Tehran intensifies; Iranian drones fall in Azerbaijan; European countries plan to deploy military assets in the Gulf region
On 05 March, the US and Israel’s airstrikes on Iran intensified while Iran vowed to retaliate for a US attack on IRIS Dena, which killed more than 80 sailors. Iranian strikes also intensified in Israel and Iraq, attacking pro-American Kurdish forces. The planned three-day mourning for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was interrupted, and officials were considering anointing his hardliner son Mojtaba as his successor. The economic fallout of the campaign intensified after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that the Strait of Hormuz would be under the control of the Islamic Republic in time of war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed that they had hit a US tanker in the northern part of the Gulf. Two Iranian drones fell into Azerbaijan, wounding four people in the Nakhchivan ex

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