CWA # 2021
Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan
Conflict Weekly Column

Anu Maria Joseph
14 March 2026

Photo Source: AP

In the news
1. Madagascar
On 10 March, Madagascar's military leader, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, dissolved the government and dismissed the prime minister and the cabinet. Randrianirina's spokesperson stated: "The government has ceased its functions" and that a new prime minister will be appointed "in line with the provisions stipulated by the constitution." The military did not give any reason for the dismissal.

2. South Sudan
On 8 March, according to Al Jazeera, 160 people, including 90 civilians, were killed when armed men attacked a village in northern South Sudan's Abiemnom county. The village's administration blamed the White Army, a militia allied to opposition leader Reik Machar and his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) party.

On the same day, Al Jazeera reported that thousands of civilians fled eastern South Sudan, especially from the town of Akobo bordering Ethiopia, after the army ordered evacuation ahead of a potential military offensive. According to humanitarian officials in the region, women and children have fled to Ethiopia, and machine guns have arrived in Akobo town.

Issues at large
1. Madagascar: The consolidation of a military government following the October 2025 Gen Z protests
An elite wing of Madagascar's military, CAPSAT, took over power from President Andry Rajoelina in October 2025 following weeks of Gen Z protests. Businessman Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo was appointed as interim prime minister to serve as a bridge between the military leadership and the civilian government. Following the military takeover, Randrianirina promised elections within two years. The military’s latest move points to internal tensions within the transitional government. It also raises concerns that the military may consolidate power.

The October 2025 Gen Z-led protests, which led to the fall of Rajoelina’s government, initially focused on frequent power cuts and water shortages. Later, it turned into anti-government protests over unemployment and bad governance. Gen Z successfully mobilised the masses massively through social media platforms and toppled the corrupt regime. Although the protest delegitimised the ruling government, the leadership vacuum was immediately filled by the military. Not only did the protest fail to achieve its core objectives, but it also failed to establish a regime that listens to the generation's demands.

2. South Sudan: Increasing tensions and violence
Since last week, the tensions in South Sudan have multiplied. The BBC reported that more than 170 people were killed in the Ruweng region in an attack by the SPLA-IO on 3 March. Until February, the attacks were concentrated in Jonglei state. However, the latest developments point to a rapid spread of violence across the country.

The clashes are linked to a years-long power struggle between President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Reik Machar. In 2013, this power struggle triggered a civil war, which ended with a permanent ceasefire and power-sharing agreement in 2018. However, the provisions of the agreement were never reached. The factions never fully integrated and unified, reforms were delayed, and presidential elections were repeatedly postponed. Now, Kiir accuses the forces led by Machar of plotting a coup. Distrust between factions and the arrest of Machar and his allies in September 2025 have resulted in another wave of violence across the country, pushing the country to the brink of another civil war.

In perspective
In Madagascar, the dismissal of the transitional civilian institutions points to a contested and unstable political transition. It reflects the military's control over the civilian leadership. With the absence of pressure from the Gen Z movement, which catalysed the fall of Rajoelina's government, the military leadership is likely to consolidate its power.

In South Sudan, intense violence has resumed across the country rather than isolated skirmishes. This week's developments suggest that violence is likely to intensify alongside its geographic and demographic spread, with fears of another civil war.

 

Anu Maria Joseph was a Project Associate at NIAS.

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