CWA # 2084
Conflict Weekly
The US-Iran War, Week Nine I Escalating Violence in Mali
Review: Five Takeaways of RSF's 2026 Report on Media Freedom
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NIAS IPRI
1 May 2026
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The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
Washington appears willing to sustain the pressure on Iran and higher global oil prices to force a more comprehensive deal on American terms rather than accepting a quick, limited reopening that could allow Tehran to regroup.
Brighty Ann Sarah
In the news
State of Negotiations
On 25 April, President Trump unilaterally called off the US delegation to Islamabad prior to the second round of peace talks. On 26 April, Tehran proposed a new peace deal that prioritised the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal also proposed nuclear negotiations at a later stage, after the Strait is reopened and the US naval blockade is lifted. On the same day, President Trump reiterated that Iran has to completely abandon its nuclear ambitions, or there will be no peace deals. “They cannot have a nuclear ?weapon, otherwise there's no reason to meet," he said. Trump added that Tehran can phone Washington to discuss the ceasefire proposal.
On 28 April, President Trump rejected the ceasefire proposal advanced by Iran, citing that the proposal did not account for discussions on Iran’s nuclear development plans. On 01 May, a second proposal from Tehran was also rejected, with Trump stating, “They’re asking for things I can’t agree to.”
On the Strait of Hormuz
On 24 April, CENTCOM reported that the USS Rafael Peralta had enforced the blockade on an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to reach Iran's ports, and that US forces had redirected at least 33 ships since the blockade began on 13 April.
On 30 April, oil prices topped at USD 126 a barrel, the highest since the war began, after Trump warned that the blockade could last ‘months.’
On the US and Iran domestic fronts
On 29 April, the Pentagon also made the first official disclosure of Washington’s war expenses, standing at USD 25 billion.
On 01 May, the Trump administration argued that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in April and the subsequent suspension of hostilities bypass the 01 May War Powers deadline on achieving congressional approval for the US-Israel war against Iran.
On the same day, reports emerged of internal fragmentation within Iran’s top brass and the civilian leadership seeking the ouster of Foreign Minister Araqchi over subservience to the IRGC leadership, amid heightening inflation and economic crisis in Tehran.
Issues at large
1. The stalled negotiations and Islamabad’s backchannel efforts
Following the first round of political negotiations in Islamabad, which ended without a deal, momentum for diplomatic resolution has steadily collapsed as President Trump cancelled the planned second round. This has reduced diplomacy to unilateral proposals from Iran delivered via Pakistan, which have been repeatedly rejected by Trump, who stated he is “not satisfied” that the proposals do not account for Iran's nuclear and ballistic missiles programme. However, Pakistan has remained central in hosting initial talks, facilitating indirect message-passing, and continuing backchannel efforts despite setbacks with officials emphasizing their commitment to “facilitation and dialogue,” upholding the ceasefire, and bridging gaps to achieve a comprehensive deal, even as indirect channels remain the primary conduit.
2. Competing US and Iranian agendas over the Strait of Hormuz
The central flashpoint of the conflict remains the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington and Tehran pursuing sharply competing agendas. Iran is pushing for the immediate reopening of the strait and the lifting of the US naval blockade as essential confidence-building measures and economic lifelines to ease the impact of sanctions and disrupted oil exports. Tehran has framed them as prerequisites for any broader de-escalation or permanent ceasefire. In contrast, Washington is insisting on the long game, maintaining the blockade as leverage to extract major concessions, particularly on Iran’s nuclear program, while maintaining the blockade as a pressure point on Tehran.
3. The dual blockade of the Hormuz and its global fallouts
The dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered one of the sharpest global oil supply disruptions in decades. The strait, which carries nearly 21 million barrels per day of crude and products, 20 per cent of global seaborne oil trade, has seen traffic drop to around 5 per cent of pre-war levels, with hundreds of tankers stranded or rerouted at massive extra cost. This has driven a steep price surge, with Brent crude trading at around USD 124 per barrel. The shock has pushed global fuel prices, increased costs for fertilizers and manufactured goods, with Asia bearing the heaviest burden as the primary buyer of Gulf crude. The US has been relatively insulated as a net exporter, though American consumers still face higher gas prices as markets remain highly volatile and sensitive to any breakthroughs in indirect US-Iran talks.
4. The US Congress's pressure on the Trump administration over the President’s War Powers
The US Congress mounted pressure on the Trump administration as the 60-day War Powers Resolution deadline passed on 1 May 2026. Democrats, joined by some Republicans wary of an open-ended conflict, have repeatedly pushed War Powers resolutions demanding formal congressional authorisation for continued operations or the termination of US involvement in the conflict. Although the administration countered by arguing that the April ceasefire “terminated hostilities” for the purposes of the War Powers clock, it highlights the chance of future legislative pushback if the conflict drags on without clear progress toward a deal.
5. Economic pressure and internal divides in Iran
The US naval blockade, secondary sanctions and the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have slashed Iran’s oil export revenues, slashing nearly 60 per cent of export income. The IMF projects Iran’s economy will shrink by around 6.1per cent in 2026, with inflation nearing 69 per cent, while the rial has collapsed to a record low of 1.8 million against the US dollar. Reports of internal fragmentation between the civilian leadership and IRGC, with the Revolutionary Guard exerting control over key decisions, sidelining civilian leaders, risk undermining Iran’s negotiating position in future talks.
In perspective
First, Washington’s unyielding position against Iran’s proposals is likely to continue. Washington appears willing to sustain the pressure on Iran and higher global oil prices to force a more comprehensive deal on American terms rather than accepting a quick, limited reopening that could allow Tehran to regroup. This divergence has become a major sticking point, further complicating Pakistan’s mediation efforts as indirect proposals continue to circulate without bridging the gap between Iran’s immediate priorities and Washington's larger demands.
Second, Tehran is under increasing pressure to open the Strait. Iran has prioritised reopening the Strait of Hormuz as the prerequisite for future negotiations in both its latest proposals. Hard-hit by economic repercussions, Iran is pushing to restore maritime transit as quickly as possible. The US Naval blockade has dealt severe blows to Tehran’s attempts to monetise the transit through the strait, and the economy is severely strained. Since reopening the Strait of Hormuz is tied to Iran accepting key US demands, Tehran faces greater pressure to restart meaningful negotiations with Washington.
Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
The conflict is driven by three primary actors: the Malian government, the FLA, and JNIM.
Akshath Kaimal
In the news
On 25 April, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and JNIM launched a series of coordinated attacks across Mali, particularly in the cities of Bamako, Sevare, Gao, Kati and Kidal. Defence Minister Gen. Sadio Camara was killed in a targeted suicide bombing.
On 26 April, Malian armed forces and the Russian Africa Corps withdrew from the key northern city of Kidal, after reaching an agreement with the rebels, but described the attacks as a failed “coup attempt”. The FLA then officially claimed control of Kidal.
On 28 April, the JNIM announced a “total siege” of the capital Bamako, blocking fuel tankers and food trucks from entering the city. Meanwhile, Russian troops conducted airstrikes against the rebels, claiming they killed over 300 militants.
On 29 April, military leader Col. Assimi Goïta delivered his first presidential address after the attacks, saying the situation was “under control” but admitting they were of “extreme gravity”. On the same day, France urged its citizens to leave the country.
Between 26 and 30 April, the UN, US, and UK condemned the attacks in Mali, while the newly-formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES) - consisting of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger - called it a “monstrous plot”. France urged its citizens in Mali to leave the country immediately.
On 01 May, JNIM fighters set up checkpoints around Bamako as part of the blockade, while also seizing the northern town of Tessalit. On the same day, the AES confirmed that it had conducted joint airstrikes on jihadist groups in northern Mali.
Issues at large
1. Mali’s long history of rebellions and political instability
Since independence in 1960, Mali’s history of Tuareg separatist rebellions and coups has fueled persistent instability. Separatists have launched four rebellions since independence, and there have been three coups in the last 15 years alone (2012, 2020 and 2021). The 2012 rebellion triggered a coup and a security vacuum, allowing violence to escalate until the French and UN interventions pushed the rebels back. Although the 2015 Algiers Accord proposed decentralisation, a reconstituted army, and a development zone, it was never fully implemented. A pivotal shift occurred with Gen Assimi Goïta’s 2021 coup. His government expelled international troops and officially annulled the peace accord in 2024. This political collapse effectively restarted hostilities, forcing northern separatist groups to unify into the FLA. Ultimately, this cycle of coups and broken agreements has dismantled the country’s security architecture, leaving Mali fragile and transforming long-standing grievances into the current state of violence.
2. Competing political and military actors and the continuous rise in violence
The conflict is driven by three primary actors: the Malian government, the FLA, and JNIM. The military leadership, supported by Russia’s Africa Corps since 2023, employs a military-first strategy and blames its civilian predecessors for past failures. Opposing them is the FLA, a Tuareg coalition formed in 2024 from legacy groups seeking independence due to underdevelopment and cultural suppression. Meanwhile, the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, seeks to establish Sharia law and has been active in the larger Sahel region. The conflict took a major turn when the FLA and JNIM - historically distinct in their secular and religious aims - began collaborating on attacks against the armed forces and military infrastructure. This alliance, triggered by the government’s annulment of peace efforts, has leveraged the security vacuum to launch the latest round of coordinated attacks.
3. The deepening humanitarian crisis
The humanitarian situation in Mali is catastrophic. According to the UN, 6.4 million people - 26 per cent of the population - require emergency humanitarian aid, with over 400,000 internally displaced and thousands more fleeing to neighbouring countries. The hunger crisis is dire; over 1.5 million people are facing acute food insecurity, and 220,000 children are suffering from severe malnutrition. This has been exacerbated by the siege tactics employed by armed groups, like the one in Bamako imposed by JNIM last year. With USAID receiving major cutbacks in 2025, aid funding for Mali has dried up, and UNOCHA noted that just 27 per cent of projects were funded as of 2025.
4. The Russian role
Russia has been Mali’s major partner in its war against the rebels since 2023. Mali does not have to consider democratic reforms as it would when engaging with Western partners, while Russia gains access to minerals and can bypass sanctions. Following the attacks, the FLA said that it aimed to drive Russia’s Africa Corps out of the country. The Russian military said it had successfully stopped a coup but then withdrew from the key northern city of Kidal, effectively leaving it to the FLA to take over. The AES originated as a mutual defence pact, and the group has carried out joint airstrikes on jihadist groups in Mali in response to the latest attacks, bringing Niger and Burkina Faso also into the conflict.
In perspective
First, the government’s military-first approach could be its undoing. The 2015 Accord provided relative stability in the north, making the government's 2024 annulment a strategic failure. By opting for a military-first approach, the government has inadvertently emboldened the rebels, triggering the formation of the more aggressive FLA. The FLA's subsequent collaboration with JNIM proves that the government's isolationist tactics have backfired, worsening the security crisis.
Second, civilians will continue to bear the brunt of this conflict. As the government and armed groups weaponise essential resources, civilians - particularly children - face dire conditions. With the humanitarian situation at a breaking point due to aid cuts and restricted access, siege tactics around Bamako will further squeeze resources, leaving the population with no escape or support.
Third, a strategic setback for Russia. The Russian troops have been largely ineffective in stopping the cycle of violence in Mali. Its withdrawal from key cities could diminish its position as a reliable security backer in the region. The AES has responded militarily, and while this might provide Mali with extra security cover, the reaction from separatist and jihadist groups could be violent.
Finally, the latest attacks show that Mali is still not immune to political instability. A series of strategic errors by the military government - from expelling UN troops to annuling the peace accord - has once again left the country unsafe and vulnerable.
Media freedom hits a 25-year low:
Five Takeaways from the RSF 2026 Index
Press freedom is experiencing a significant and concerning decline, reaching its lowest level in 25 years, driven by political pressure, economic instability, technological disruption, and increasing hostility toward journalists.
Jenin Raj S
On 30 April 2026, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) published its annual index for the year. The Paris-based global NGO has been publishing the index annually, focusing on media freedom worldwide. The RSF index is considered one of the most authoritative global benchmarks for assessing press freedom, evaluating countries based on key indicators such as political independence, legal frameworks, economic conditions, media safety, and levels of censorship. By comparing conditions across more than 180 countries, the RSF Index provides a detailed snapshot of the state of journalism globally and helps identify both long-term trends and emerging threats to independent media.
According to the report, press freedom is experiencing a significant and concerning decline, reaching its lowest level in 25 years, reflecting a combination of political pressure, economic instability, technological disruption, and increasing hostility toward journalists, all of which are reshaping how information is produced, shared, and controlled. As independent media face growing challenges in many countries, concerns are rising about societies' ability to access reliable information and maintain transparency in public life. The 2026 findings highlight that this is not an isolated issue affecting a few regions, but a widespread global trend that is steadily weakening the foundations of free and independent journalism.
The following are the major takeaways of the RSF 2026 index.
1. Decline of global press freedom to its lowest level in 25 years due to structural and political shifts
According to the report, more than 60 per cent of the countries assessed recorded a drop in their overall scores; nearly three-quarters of nations now fall below the level considered satisfactory for press freedom. Only a small group of countries continue to maintain a good environment for journalism, and even within that group, scores have begun to stagnate rather than improve.
This decline is not limited to traditionally restrictive states. Several democracies that once ranked among the top 20 have slipped in recent years due to increasing political pressure and weakening institutional safeguards.
According to the data, the gap between high-performing and low-performing countries is narrowing, but not because weaker countries are improving. Instead, stronger systems are deteriorating, which signals a broader structural shift in how press freedom is being challenged globally. Political interference remains one of the strongest drivers behind this trend. In many regions, governments are exerting greater control over public broadcasters and regulatory bodies. Elections, which should strengthen democratic values, are increasingly accompanied by restrictions on media coverage. This suggests that the decline is not sudden, but the result of long-term changes in political behaviour and governance.
2. Growing influence of digital platforms and artificial intelligence in shaping information and spreading misinformation
Digital platforms now play a central role in how news is distributed and consumed. According to recent estimates, more than 65 per cent of people globally access news through social media or online aggregators. A small number of technology companies dominate this space, controlling the flow of information through algorithms that prioritise engagement.
These algorithms often favour sensational or emotionally charged content, which can overshadow accurate and well-researched reporting. This creates an environment where misinformation can spread rapidly. Studies suggest that false information can travel up to six times faster than verified news on social media platforms. This speed makes it difficult for journalists to correct narratives once they gain traction.
Artificial intelligence has further complicated the situation. AI tools can now generate realistic text-to-image and video content in seconds. While this technology has useful applications, it also increases the risk of deepfakes and automated misinformation campaigns. During major events such as elections or crises, these tools can be used to manipulate public opinion at scale. Journalists are now required to verify not only sources but also the authenticity of digital content itself.
3. Rising economic pressure on media organisations is leading to self-censorship and reduced independence
Economic instability has emerged as one of the most critical threats to journalism. The RSF report indicates that nearly 50 per cent of media outlets worldwide are now operating under significant financial strain. Advertising revenue, which once formed the backbone of traditional media, has shifted dramatically toward digital platforms. In some regions, tech companies capture more than 70 per cent of total digital advertising revenue, leaving news organisations with a shrinking share.
This financial imbalance has forced many outlets to rely on external funding, including political sponsorships and corporate backing. Such dependence often comes with expectations, whether explicit or implicit, that influence editorial decisions. As a result, self-censorship has become more common. Journalists may avoid topics that could upset advertisers or sponsors, even without direct pressure.
The data also shows a sharp rise in media closures. In the past five years alone, thousands of local newspapers and small media houses have shut down globally. This has created news deserts, particularly in rural and underserved areas, where access to reliable information is now limited. The economic model of journalism is clearly under strain, and without sustainable alternatives, independence remains at risk.
4. Deteriorating safety environment for the journalists, with increasing hostility, legal threats, physical attacks, and online harassment
The safety of journalists continues to deteriorate, with the 2026 index reporting a steady increase in attacks and intimidation. Hundreds of journalists are currently imprisoned worldwide, while many more face ongoing legal cases. Physical violence remains a serious issue, especially in conflict zones, but the data shows that threats are rising even in countries that are not experiencing war or political instability.
Online harassment has become one of the most widespread forms of attack. Journalists, particularly women, face coordinated abuse campaigns on social media platforms. These campaigns often include threats of violence, doxing and character assassination. Such harassment not only affects individual journalists but also discourages others from entering the profession.
Legal intimidation is another growing concern. Governments and powerful individuals are increasingly using defamation laws and strategic lawsuits to silence critical reporting. These cases can be financially draining and time-consuming, even if they do not result in convictions. The overall impact is a climate of fear in which journalists must constantly weigh the risks of reporting certain stories.
5. Expanding use of surveillance censorship and restrictive laws by governments limiting independent journalism
Government control over information has expanded significantly in recent years. The RSF report notes that more than 40 per cent of countries have introduced or strengthened laws related to digital communication and media regulation. While many of these laws are presented as measures to combat misinformation, they are often used to suppress dissent and restrict independent reporting.
Surveillance technologies have become more advanced and accessible, allowing authorities to monitor journalists and their sources. This undermines one of journalism's core principles: protecting confidential information. In some cases, journalists have been targeted using spyware or other digital tools, raising serious concerns about privacy and security.
Censorship is also becoming more sophisticated. Instead of outright bans, governments are using subtle methods such as content removal requests, internet slowdowns and platform restrictions. These tactics are harder to detect but equally effective in limiting the reach of independent media. The result is a controlled information environment where critical voices struggle to be heard.
To Conclude: Systems that support independent journalism are weakening
The 2026 World Press Freedom Index presents a clear and data-backed picture of a global decline that cannot be ignored. Each of the key trends, whether economic pressure, rising hostility, technological disruption or government control, points to a weakening of the systems that support independent journalism. Press freedom is not just about the rights of journalists; it is about the ability of societies to access accurate information and hold power accountable. When these systems weaken, the effects are felt across all aspects of public life, from governance to social trust. Addressing press freedom requires urgency, awareness and sustained commitment.
Regional Roundups
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week: (24 April-01 May)
Abhimanyu Solanki, Aishal Yousaf, Akshath K, Brighty Ann Sarah, Glynnis Winona Beschi, Kirsten Wilfred Coelho, Manik Dhawan, Nithin V, Siddhi Haylur, Sreemaya Nair, Vani Vaishnavi Jupudi and Vishal Manish M
China, East Asia, and the Pacific
China: Naval drills near the Philippines highlight rising regional tensions
On 24 April, Reuters reported that China’s military carried out live fire exercises in waters east of the Philippines’ Luzon Island as part of ongoing military activities in the region. The drills conducted by the Southern Theatre Command included live-fire shooting, sea and air coordination, rapid manoeuvres, and maritime support operations to test joint combat capabilities. The Chinese military did not provide specific details on the exact timing or location of the drills but described them as part of regular training to improve operational readiness. The exercises come amid rising regional tensions, especially as the United States and the Philippines are conducting large joint military exercises nearby. Experts say that such activities reflect growing competition and security concerns in the region, particularly in the South China Sea and surrounding areas. The drills highlight China’s continued focus on strengthening its military coordination and preparedness in strategically important waters.
China: Conducts patrols near Scarborough Shoal
On 30 April, Reuters reported that China’s military carried out naval and air patrols near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea to test its combat readiness. The drills were done by the Southern Theater Command to improve coordination and preparedness. China said the patrols were in response to what it called “provocative actions” referring to joint military exercises by the United States, the Philippines and their allies in the region. These exercises involve several countries and focus on defence cooperation and training. China said the patrols were meant to protect its territorial claims and maintain stability. However, the Philippines said it did not see any unusual Chinese military activity and accused China of exaggerating the situation. The incident shows ongoing tensions in the South China Sea where competing claims and military activities continue to raise security concerns.
China: Tensions rise over Taiwan and trade ahead of Trump-Xi summit
On 01 May, Reuters reported that China warned the US that the Taiwan issue remains the “biggest point of risk” in bilateral relations. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to respect Beijing’s core interests and take decisions that would sustain cooperation. The remarks come ahead of a planned mid-May summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, with both sides preparing for high-level exchanges while attempting to preserve stability in ties. Simultaneously, senior economic officials from both countries held “candid” discussions which highlighted concerns over each other’s trade actions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described China’s recent supply chain rules as “provocative” and warned that they could unsettle global supply networks. In response, China has raised objections to US trade restrictions. Despite these differences, both sides indicated willingness to manage disagreements and continue engagement ahead of the summit.
Southeast Asia
The Philippines: Joint coastal defence exercise near the South China Sea conducted along the strategic Palawan islands
On 27 April, the Philippines and the US, along with Australia and New Zealand conducted annual coastal defence maneuvers along the Palawan islands facing the South China Sea. The annual “shoulder to shoulder” defence exercise tested advanced weapons capabilities and operational readiness, focusing on counter-landing exercises. The drills featured systems such as HIMARS, differing from previous iterations by its heavy use of unmanned systems, including drones, reported Reuters. Military Chief Romeo Brawner underscored Palawan’s strategic importance, noting it faces the South China Sea and lies opposite the Kalayaan Island Group in the Spratly Islands, which Manila considers part of its exclusive economic zone. “We are defending our exclusive economic zone, where we get our resources, food and energy. So it’s really very important that we defend this territory of the Philippines,” he said.
Myanmar: Civilian government remains under strong military influence despite political transition
On 24 April, according to Mizzima, a recent report by Burma Campaign UK found that Myanmar’s newly formed civilian government continues to be dominated by military figures and their allies. Reports indicate that key leadership positions, including President Min Aung Hlaing, remain closely tied to the armed forces, while a majority of ministers and parliamentary members are affiliated with the military or its political network. The findings suggest that the post-election system represents a continuation of military rule rather than a genuine democratic transition. Observers note that the restructuring appears aimed at reducing international pressure while maintaining centralized control, raising concerns over political legitimacy and the lack of meaningful institutional reform.
Myanmar: Martial law imposed in 60 townships amid ongoing conflict
On 24 April, Reuters reported that Myanmar’s military-backed government has imposed martial law in 60 townships through new emergency orders issued by leader Min Aung Hlaing. This move aims to strengthen military control and improve security in areas still affected by conflict, even after the country’s recent political transition. The measures cover several regions and states, including Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Chin, Shan and Rakhine, as well as Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay, where fighting and instability have continued since the 2021 coup. Experts say that this decision highlights the government’s continued reliance on military power to manage unrest. It also reflects the ongoing challenges in restoring stability as the country remains affected by armed conflict and political tensions. The move signals that security concerns remain high despite efforts to present a shift toward civilian governance.
Myanmar: Rights groups call for removal of national human rights body from regional forum
On 24 April, according to Mizzima, a coalition of regional human rights organisations, including Asian NGO Network on National Human Rights Institutions and FORUM-ASIA, called for the expulsion of the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission (MNHRC) from a Southeast Asian regional forum. The groups argued that the commission lacks independence and has aligned itself with the military-led administration. Reports indicate that the MNHRC has failed to address ongoing human rights violations and has instead supported official narratives. Observers note that its continued inclusion risks undermining regional accountability mechanisms, especially amid escalating violence and civilian targeting. The call highlights broader concerns over institutional credibility and the need for stronger regional human rights standards.
Myanmar: Resistance forces capture military camp in Naypyidaw territory amid escalating conflict
On 25 April, according to Mizzima, allied resistance groups seized a Myanmar military camp in Lewe Township, Naypyidaw Territory, during a coordinated early morning operation. Reports indicate that the assault was swift, resulting in the deaths of more than ten military personnel, including a senior officer, while others reportedly fled the base. Weapons and military equipment were also captured during the operation. The camp, located in a strategically sensitive area, was reportedly used as a defensive outpost. Observers note that the incident highlights the growing capabilities of resistance forces and the intensifying clashes near key administrative regions. The development also raises concerns about further escalation, as military reinforcements are expected to respond in the area.
Myanmar and Thailand: Bilateral engagement expands as Thailand strengthens cooperation with military leadership
On 25 April, according to Mizzima, Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow visited Naypyidaw and met with Myanmar’s leader, Min Aung Hlaing, to agree to expand cooperation across multiple sectors. Reports indicate that discussions focused on border security, trade, investment, energy, and development, as well as on joint efforts to address cross-border issues such as drug trafficking and online scams. The visit also included meetings with senior officials to strengthen economic partnerships and regional connectivity. Observers note that the engagement reflects a pragmatic regional approach, balancing diplomatic relations with concerns over ongoing conflict and instability in Myanmar.
Myanmar: Civil society groups urge ASEAN to reject military-backed ‘pseudo-civilian’ regime
On 28 April, according to The Irrawaddy, hundreds of Myanmar civil society organisations (CSOs) urged the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to reject the legitimacy of the country’s military-backed “pseudo-civilian” administration. Over 200 groups issued an open letter calling on ASEAN to bar regime representatives from high-level meetings and avoid recognising the new political arrangement, while urging stronger regional support for democratic forces and accountability. Observers note that the demand reflects growing resistance to the military’s efforts to legitimise its rule. The development highlights tensions between regional diplomacy and democratic pressures, raising concerns about ASEAN’s effectiveness in addressing Myanmar’s prolonged crisis.
Myanmar: EU renews restrictive measures on Myanmar for an additional year
On 28 April, according to Mizzima, the Council of the European Union extended sanctions on Myanmar for another 12 months, until 30 April 2027. The decision reflects ongoing concerns over democratic backsliding and human rights violations since the 2021 coup, with measures targeting 105 individuals and 22 entities through asset freezes and travel bans. Observers note that additional restrictions remain, including arms embargoes, export controls, and suspension of cooperation with the Tatmadaw. The EU has also halted financial assistance to avoid legitimising the regime. The move highlights sustained international pressure while raising questions about the effectiveness of sanctions.
Myanmar: Scam-linked militias establish regime-backed ‘peace committee’ in Karen State
On 30 April, according to The Irrawaddy, militias in Karen State linked to online scam operations formed a new body to promote “peace.” The panel includes armed groups aligned with the military, such as the Karen National Army (KNA) and the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), along with other allied organisations. The initiative is presented as a peace-building effort but remains closely tied to regime-backed actors. Observers note that the move reflects the military's attempts to consolidate influence through allied militias, particularly in border regions linked to illicit activities. The development raises concerns about the credibility of such initiatives and their implications for governance, security, and ongoing conflict dynamics in Myanmar.
Myanmar: Military conducts air raids as forces push toward Innaw town
On 30 April, according to Mizzima, Myanmar’s military carried out airstrikes near Innaw town in Sagaing Region as troops advanced after clashes with resistance forces. Reports indicate that around 300 soldiers moved from Katha Township, retook the Naba junction, and pushed toward resistance-held Innaw. Airstrikes targeted nearby villages, though details on casualties remain unclear. Observers note that the operation reflects continued efforts to regain control through combined ground and air offensives. The advance has forced civilians to flee and raises concerns about displacement, civilian safety, and further escalation of the conflict in the region.
Myanmar: Suu Kyi meets legal team after years of detention
On 01 May, Reuters reported that Myanmar’s former leader Aung San Suu Kyi is expected to meet her lawyers over the weekend after being moved to house arrest in Naypyidaw. Her legal team said the meeting will help discuss her case and provide her with basic items like food and medicine. Suu Kyi has been in detention since the military took power in a coup in February 2021. Since then there has been ongoing conflict in the country and her location and condition were not clearly known for a long time. This development comes as international pressure grows on Myanmar’s military government to release political prisoners and return to talks. The meeting is seen as a small step that allows her to reconnect with her legal team after years of limited contact.
Myanmar: Rising Chinese influence and border concerns amid political crisis
On 01 May, according to The Irrawaddy, developments indicate growing Chinese involvement in Myanmar during the ongoing political crisis. China continues engagement with the military-backed administration, particularly in economic and strategic sectors, reflecting increased dependence on Beijing. Concerns have also emerged over gradual territorial encroachment along the China–Myanmar border, where temporary arrangements are becoming more permanent. Observers note that these trends highlight the junta’s reliance on external support amid international isolation. The development raises concerns about sovereignty, shifting regional dynamics, and the long-term implications of China’s expanding role in Myanmar’s affairs.
Myanmar: Rohingya group urges enforcement of Argentinian arrest warrants following UN report
On 01 May, according to Mizzima, the Burmese Rohingya Organisation UK (BROUK) welcomed a report by UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews and urged governments to enforce Argentinian arrest warrants against 25 Myanmar officials over alleged genocide against the Rohingya. The report linked ongoing atrocities to the failure to ensure accountability.Observers note that the appeal highlights the importance of universal jurisdiction and gaps in enforcement. BROUK stressed that lack of political will has allowed perpetrators to avoid justice. The development raises concerns about continued impunity and the need for coordinated global action.
South Asia
Afghanistan: Conflict between Taliban and Pakistan disrupts education
On 24 April, according to Afghanistan International, clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan disrupted schooling for around 12,000 Afghan students in border areas, according to the United Nations. Many children have been displaced or are unable to attend school, with some forced from their homes. In Kunar Province, villages have been emptied of children, and at least 22 schools have been damaged or destroyed, requiring reconstruction, as reported by Agence France-Presse. A local headteacher said students are now out of school after their building was destroyed. Thousands of residents have been displaced and are living in poor conditions along the Kunar River, with families in tents and children deprived of education. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan reported hundreds of civilian deaths, while tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban continue.
Afghanistan: Red Cross delivers emergency aid to 17,000 families in Nuristan amid conflict disruptions
On 24 April, according to Afghanistan International, the International Committee of the Red Cross said it had delivered emergency assistance to 17,000 families affected by clashes between Taliban forces and Pakistan in Nuristan’s Kamdesh and Barg-e-Matal districts. The aid, including food supplies, hygiene kits and essential items, was transported through recently reopened routes that had remained inaccessible for nearly two months due to cross-border fighting. Delivered in coordination with the Afghan Red Crescent Society and the World Food Programme, the assistance targets displaced populations facing acute shortages.
Afghanistan: Islamabad denies strike on Kunar University amid conflicting casualty reports
On 28 April, according to Afghanistan International, Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting denied reports that its forces carried out an attack on Sayed Jamaluddin Afghan University and nearby residential areas in Kunar, describing the claims as baseless and aimed at deflecting from alleged Taliban links with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The denial followed statements from the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education, which said at least 30 students and lecturers were injured in an attack on the university. Local sources had earlier reported artillery strikes by Pakistani forces in Asadabad, including the university campus, with casualty figures of seven killed and 75 wounded. Pakistan’s information ministry stated that any operation targeting militant infrastructure would be officially acknowledged and supported with evidence.
Afghanistan: Taliban mortar strikes hit Chaman and Bajaur amid escalating cross-border clashes
On 28 April, according to Afghanistan International, local sources said Taliban forces fired mortars from Afghan territory into Pakistan’s Chaman in Balochistan and Bajaur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing at least one person and injuring another. A mortar reportedly struck a house in Mohammad Hassan village in Chaman, causing casualties and damaging nearby shops. The strikes come amid renewed escalation in cross-border exchanges following a period of relative calm. Earlier, Pakistani forces were reported to have carried out artillery attacks on Asadabad in Kunar, including areas near Sayed Jamaluddin Afghan University, with casualty figures rising to seven killed and 75 injured. Additional exchanges were reported in Spin Boldak in Kandahar, where Pakistani forces fired mortars at several villages, followed by Taliban fire on border posts. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of backing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, an allegation the Taliban deny.
Afghanistan: Taliban defence chief chairs security meeting amid rising border tensions
On 30 April, according to Afghanistan International, Mullah Yaqoob chaired a Taliban security commission meeting to review the country’s defence and security situation, with reports from various provinces presented to the members. Taliban affiliated Bakhtar News Agency said decisions were taken to address existing challenges in a timely and effective manner, though no specific details were disclosed. The meeting comes amid escalating cross-border tensions, with Pakistani sources stating that their forces carried out operations in Chaman, destroying Taliban posts and vehicles in response to alleged aggression. Earlier, Pakistani forces were also reported to have conducted strikes in Kunar, including areas in the provincial capital.
Afghanistan-Pakistan: Informal talks in Turkey to address bilateral tensions
On 30 April, according to Afghanistan International, informed sources said informal talks were underway in Istanbul between figures close to the Taliban and the Pakistani government, with the support of Turkiye. Participants linked to the Taliban include Jafar Mahdavi, Atif Mashal and Obaidullah Bahir, while Pakistani participants include Mushahid Hussain, Asif Durrani and Hamid Mir. Sources said discussions focus on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State activities in Afghanistan, border clashes, Pakistani strikes and the issue of migrants. The talks aim to explore mechanisms such as intelligence sharing, preventing border clashes and facilitating civilian and trade movement. Previous formal rounds of talks in Doha, Istanbul, Riyadh and Urumqi have not produced outcomes, while cross-border strikes and political engagements with Taliban opponents continue.
On 01 May, according to Afghanistan International, sources said informal talks between representatives close to the Taliban and Pakistan in Istanbul concluded with a general agreement on issues related to militant groups, with the support of Turkiye. The discussions focused on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State, with negotiators proposing that the Taliban designate TTP as a terrorist organisation while Pakistan would acknowledge the presence of Islamic State within its territory. Sources said a draft agreement has been finalised, though differences remain over formally recognising TTP as a terrorist group and the text has not been made public. It remains unclear whether the Taliban administration will accept the outcome, although the talks involved a non-Taliban delegation approved by both sides. Previous formal rounds of talks in Doha, Istanbul, Riyadh and Urumqi had not produced results.
Afghanistan: Islamabad says 13 militants killed during infiltration attempts from Afghan side
On 01 May, according to Afghanistan International, Pakistan’s army said it killed 13 militants attempting to cross from Afghanistan into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa over two days, including eight in Mohmand district and five in North Waziristan during separate clashes. The military accused the Taliban of failing to effectively manage the border and called on them to prevent militant groups from using Afghan territory to carry out attacks in Pakistan. Mohsin Naqvi praised security forces for preventing infiltration and alleged the militants were linked to India. The statement comes amid intensified cross border tensions, with Pakistan conducting artillery strikes in eastern Afghanistan, including Kunar, reportedly causing civilian casualties, while the Taliban have targeted positions in South Waziristan, injuring civilians.
Afghanistan: 136,000 people face food insecurity after border tensions, says Red Cross
On 01 May, according to Afghanistan International, the International Committee of the Red Cross said around 136,000 people in Kamdesh and Barg-e-Matal districts of Nuristan province faced severe food insecurity following Taliban Pakistan tensions and a two month road closure that disrupted access to supplies. The report noted that approximately 17,000 families were directly affected, with the districts left in isolation due to hostilities. The organisation said emergency relief operations for affected families began after negotiations with parties to the conflict to ensure safe passage for aid delivery. It added that discussions had been held since early April to facilitate impartial assistance in the region.
Pakistan: Islamabad and seven Muslim states condemn Israeli violations at Al-Aqsa mosque
On 24 April, The News International reported that the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Egypt, Turkiye, Indonesia, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE issued a joint statement condemning continued incursions by Israeli settlers and officials into the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem, including the raising of the Israeli flag within its courtyards under police protection. The ministers described the actions as a "flagrant violation of international law and international humanitarian law" and an "unacceptable provocation" to Muslims worldwide. They reaffirmed Jordan's special custodial role over Islamic and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem and stressed that Al-Aqsa remains exclusively a place of Muslim worship. The statement also condemned the approval of more than 30 new illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank and reiterated support for a two-state solution with East Jerusalem as the capital of an independent Palestinian state along the 04 June 1967 lines.
Pakistan: Crew among hostages in piracy incident near Somalia
On 24 April, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s Maritime Affairs Minister Junaid Anwar Chaudhry sought a detailed report on the reported hijacking of an oil tanker near Somalia, with 11 Pakistani crew members among those taken hostage. The vessel, identified as “Owner 25”, was reportedly seized in the Gulf of Aden on 21 April by suspected Somali pirates. The ministry said it was monitoring the situation closely and coordinating with the Foreign Office while attempting to establish contact with Somali authorities. The incident underscores persistent maritime security risks in the region, which has seen similar attacks in recent years, including the 2024 hijacking of vessels with Pakistani crew later rescued by international naval forces.
Pakistan: Ten killed, including a Turkish national, in armed attack on mining site in Chagai district in Balochistan
On 24 April, The News International reported that ten people, including a Turkish national, were killed and eight others injured when over three dozen armed men on motorcycles stormed a copper and gold project site operated by National Resources Limited (NRL) in Chagai district on Wednesday evening. Among those killed were two security guards and five geologists, with five victims burnt to death after a rocket struck a fuel tank, triggering a massive fire. The attackers also set heavy machinery, equipment, and vehicles on fire before fleeing. Security forces, including the Frontier Corps, responded, secured the area, and launched a clearance operation. NRL is a joint venture between Lucky Cement, Fatima Fertiliser, and Liberty Mills, engaged in copper-gold and lead-zinc exploration in Chagai. No group has claimed responsibility. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan condemned the attack, calling the deliberate targeting of civilian workers a violation of fundamental human rights and demanding an immediate and transparent investigation.
Pakistan: Twenty-two militants killed in a joint intelligence-based operation in KP
On 24 April, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s security forces, in a joint operation with law enforcement agencies, killed 22 militants in an intelligence-based operation in Khyber district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said on Friday. The military said the militants, described as belonging to the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), were engaged after an “intense exchange of fire”, with weapons and ammunition recovered. It added that militants resorted to “indiscriminate firing”, resulting in the death of a 10-year-old child. The operation is part of Pakistan’s ongoing counterterrorism campaign amid rising violence, with attacks increasing by 34 per cent and fatalities by 21 per cent in 2025, according to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS). Authorities said “sanitisation operations” are ongoing to eliminate remaining threats.
Pakistan: Civil-military leadership vows joint efforts for peace in Gwadar
On 24 April, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s civil and military leaders agreed to work together to improve peace and stability in Gwadar and the wider Balochistan region. This decision was made during a high-level meeting where officials reviewed the security situation and ongoing development projects. The leaders said that better coordination between civilian bodies and security forces is needed to deal with issues like terrorism and unrest. They also stressed the need to protect development projects, especially those under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and to make sure local people benefit from them. Officials added that improving law and order and governance will be important for long-term stability. The discussion shows Pakistan’s effort to balance its security needs with development goals in Balochistan, which is an important but sensitive region.
Pakistan-led UN panel warns of terrorist groups exploiting AI, encrypted platforms and cryptocurrency
On 25 April, Dawn reported that a panel organised by Pakistan's Permanent Mission to the UN in collaboration with the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) examined emerging patterns in global terrorism, with experts warning that terrorist groups were increasingly exploiting artificial intelligence, encrypted platforms, and digital currencies to recruit, propagandise, and finance operations across borders. Pakistan's Permanent Representative Asim Iftikhar Ahmad described the threat landscape as "fast evolving," highlighting xenophobia, religious intolerance, and gaps in the global counter-terrorism architecture as key drivers. UNOCT Acting Under-Secretary-General Alexander Zouev described terrorism as "multipolar and sophisticated," stressing the need for preventive action. Participants flagged persistent threats from the TTP, BLA, ETIM, and ISIL-K, as well as Sahel-based groups. The panel comes as the UN General Assembly reviews its Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy, with Pakistan, currently serving on the Security Council for 2025-26, advocating a comprehensive approach combining security measures with addressing root causes of conflict.
Pakistan: Attacks on police and ambulance vehicles injure eight people
On 25 April, Dawn reported that eight people, including five policemen, were injured in two separate attacks by unidentified assailants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Bajaur district. The first incident took place in the Lowi Sam area of Khar tehsil, where gunmen opened fire on a police vehicle heading to a nearby post, injuring all five officers. Around 20 minutes later, a Rescue 1122 ambulance sent to assist the wounded was also attacked in the Rashakai area, injuring three more people, including the driver. Police launched search operations, but the attackers managed to escape, and no group has claimed responsibility so far. Local political leaders condemned the incidents and called for improved security. The attacks highlight the continuing fragility of security in the region, where violence has increased in recent years despite ongoing counterterror efforts.
Pakistan: Attack damages police station and nearby shops in Dera Ismail Khan
On 26 April, Dawn reported that militants attacked the Daraban police station in Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, using rockets and heavy gunfire. The attack badly damaged the police station, including part of its boundary wall and also affected nearby shops and buildings. Police fired back and forced the attackers to flee. No one was killed or injured in the incident. After the attack, security forces started a search operation to catch those involved. In a separate case, police stopped a vehicle and arrested two suspects. They recovered illegal Iranian currency worth more than IRR 4.49 billion and handed the case over to the Federal Investigation Agency for further investigation. The incident shows that security problems continue in the region with frequent attacks on police and government institutions.
Pakistan: Bomb blast near minister’s house in Balochistan
On 26 April, Dawn reported that a bomb blast took place near the house of Balochistan’s Irrigation Minister Mir Sadiq Umrani in Dera Murad Jamali. Unknown attackers had planted the bomb behind his residence near a transformer. The explosion caused damage to parts of the house and destroyed the transformer. At the time of the blast, the minister was not at home, and only the domestic staff were present. No casualties were reported. CCTV footage showed two suspects placing the bomb and leaving before it exploded. Police have started an investigation to identify and arrest those involved. The incident highlights ongoing security concerns in Balochistan, where such targeted attacks on political figures and state-linked individuals continue to occur.
Pakistan: Islamabad and Colombo begin joint counter-terrorism exercise
On 28 April, The Express Tribune reported that Pakistan and Sri Lanka launched the joint counter-terrorism exercise “Shake Hands-II” at Tarbela, with participation from the Pakistan Army Special Services Group and Sri Lankan Special Forces. According to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the two-week drill aims to enhance operational capabilities, interoperability and professional expertise through joint training. Officials said participating troops would exchange “operational experiences and expertise in counter-terrorism operations,” strengthening coordination between the two militaries.
The drill comes amid a series of recent joint military engagements by Pakistan. Earlier this month, Pakistan conducted the “Jinnah-XIII” commando exercise with Türkiye, focusing on advanced counterterrorism tactics, while last week, “Thunder-II” with Egypt was held at Cherat to enhance special operations coordination. In January, Pakistan also held “Inspired Gambit-2026” with the United States, aimed at strengthening counterterrorism cooperation. The exercise reflects Islamabad’s continued focus on specialised training and regional defence partnerships to address evolving security threats.
Pakistan: Three injured in suspected Afghan attacks in South Waziristan; Pakistan dismisses Afghan claims that it struck civilian sites
On 27 April, Dawn and The Express Tribune reported that Pakistani security forces destroyed militant positions across the border after alleged firing by the Afghan Taliban injured three civilians, including two women, in South Waziristan. Security sources said the attack followed failed infiltration attempts by militants linked to Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), adding that troops “thwarted every infiltration attempt” before retaliating under Operation Ghazab lil-Haq. Officials claimed the cross-border shelling targeted civilians in Angoor Adda, while locals condemned the incident and urged a response.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s information ministry rejected an Afghan media claim that its forces struck civilian sites in Kunar province, calling reports of attacks on Sayed Jamaluddin Afghani University “blatant lies” and “fake propaganda”. Officials insisted that any action under Operation Ghazab lil-Haq was “precise and intelligence-based” and would be publicly acknowledged. The ministry accused Afghan outlets of spreading misinformation to deflect from alleged support to TTP-linked groups, adding that such narratives were amplified by external actors. The rebuttal reflects an escalating information battle accompanying military tensions, with both sides contesting narratives over civilian harm and responsibility for cross-border violence.
Pakistan: Study finds that “Al-Mirsad” is a designated anti-Pakistan propaganda arm of Taliban
On 27 April, The Express Tribune reported that a study by the University of Lahore’s Center for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) identified Afghan outlet “Al-Mirsad” as a coordinated propaganda arm linked to Taliban intelligence, designed to shape anti-Pakistan narratives. The report said the platform uses multilingual content and digital tools, including AI-driven amplification, to influence public opinion and legitimise militant groups. It also highlighted the “weaponisation of religion” and exploitation of ethnic fault lines to undermine Pakistan’s internal cohesion. These events underscore persistent volatility along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, where tensions have risen amid repeated accusations of militant safe havens and cross-border attacks.
Pakistan: Government working to secure release of 11 Pakistani crew members held hostage after Somali pirate hijacking
On 28 April, Dawn reported that Sindh Governor Syed Muhammad Nehal Hashmi met families of 11 Pakistani crew members taken hostage after armed pirates hijacked an oil tanker near the Somali coast last week, along with the vessel's Indonesian captain. The governor assured families that the federal government was taking all-out measures for their safe release and that communication with the hostages remained intact. He noted that discussions were underway with the European Union regarding the recovery of the hostages, and acknowledged that the incident occurring outside Pakistan's maritime boundaries had created certain complexities.
Pakistan: Police head constable killed in militant attack on checkpost in Pishin district
On 27 April, Dawn reported that a police head constable, identified as Naimatullah, was martyred after armed militants on a motorcycle opened fire on a checkpost in the Huramzai area of Pishin district, Balochistan, using automatic weapons. Police personnel retaliated, with the exchange of fire continuing for some time before the assailants fled. A search operation has been launched to trace those responsible. No group has claimed responsibility. The attack follows the martyrdom of a policeman and injuries to four others in separate attacks on two police stations in Kachhi and Noshki districts last week.
Pakistan: Third suspected drone strike damages another mosque in Hassankhel
On 28 April, Dawn reported that a mosque was partially damaged in a suspected drone strike in the Hassankhel sub-division, around 45 miles south of Peshawar, marking the third such strike in the area and the second to damage a place of worship. The strike hit Jamia Masjid Qamar Sar at around 10 am, with no casualties reported as the mosque was unoccupied at the time. A separate explosion of unconfirmed nature also took place in the same area, targeting a local hujra, also without casualties. The incident follows a suspected drone strike on a mosque in Hassankhel's Chandoka area on 22 April 2026. The area has seen a surge in militant activity in recent months, with two policemen abducted and martyred in April and multiple attacks on police installations reported across the broader constituency over the past three months.
Pakistan: Islamabad successfully tests Fateh-II missile system
On 28 April, Dawn and The News International reported that the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) confirmed a successful training launch of the indigenously developed Fateh-II missile by the Army Rocket Force Command. The system, equipped with advanced avionics and navigation aids, was tested to train troops, validate technical parameters and assess sub-system performance for “improved accuracy and enhanced survivability”. The launch was witnessed by officials from the Strategic Plans Division and scientists from “strategic organisations”. President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and CDF Asim Munir praised the effort, highlighting the importance of indigenous technology in strengthening national defence capabilities.
The test follows a series of recent missile developments across Pakistan’s armed forces. Last week, the Pakistan Navy conducted a successful launch of the indigenously developed Taimoor air-launched cruise missile, described as demonstrating “precision strike capability and operational readiness”. Earlier, naval forces also tested a ship-launched anti-ship missile, while previous trials under the Fateh series and other systems have focused on extending range and accuracy. Officials say these developments reflect a broader strategy to enhance conventional deterrence and build a multi-dimensional, coordinated strike capability through sustained investment in domestic defence technology.
Pakistan: Security forces destroy several Afghan Taliban posts in Chaman, according to security sources
On 28 April, Dawn reported that Pakistani security forces destroyed multiple Afghan Taliban posts in Balochistan’s Chaman sector in response to what officials described as “unprovoked aggression” along the border. According to security sources, the operation - part of the ongoing Ghazab lil-Haq campaign - targeted positions including Sarshan, Al-Marjan and Edhi, along with associated vehicles and installations. Officials said the action reflected Pakistan’s resolve to counter cross-border threats and militant activity linked to the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), adding that the operation would continue until its objectives are achieved, amid continued tensions and repeated calls on Kabul to dismantle militant sanctuaries.
Pakistan: Thousands of deportees still waiting to cross border into Afghanistan
On 29 April, The News International reported that thousands of Afghan returnees continued to gather at the Torkham border crossing as strained relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan kept the main trade route largely closed, disrupting livelihoods and movement. Hundreds of trucks carrying household belongings lined the road as families prepared to cross, with officials estimating that between 4000 and 6000 Afghans have been returning daily since March. Many expressed concern that continued tensions and the risk of renewed fighting would worsen their situation, while businesses on both sides warned of mounting losses due to stalled trade, urging both governments to resolve differences through dialogue to restore economic activity.
Pakistan: Islamabad raises concern over violence in Gaza, West Bank and Hormuz closure at UNSC
On 29 April, The News International reported that Pakistan's Permanent Ambassador to the UN, Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, warned at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) of deepening volatility in the Middle East, urging all parties to exercise restraint and prioritise diplomacy to prevent further escalation. He described the regional situation as “extremely volatile with multiple and interconnected crises” and stressed adherence to international law and the UN Charter. Highlighting Gaza, he noted that despite a ceasefire, more than 800 Palestinians had been killed in Israeli strikes since its announcement, while humanitarian aid remained insufficient. He also raised alarm over rising violence and settlement expansion in the West Bank, and warned that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz were threatening global economic stability, reiterating that resolving the Palestinian issue remained central to lasting peace.
Pakistan: Peshawar Police allegedly open fire on Khyber protesters
On 28 April, Dawn reported that police in Peshawar allegedly used tear gas and opened fire to disperse a protest by tribesmen from Khyber district, who had gathered at the Hayatabad toll plaza against a suspected quadcopter strike that killed a teenage girl and injured six others in Bara’s Akkakhel area. Protesters said around 150 people had assembled peacefully, though authorities claimed firing began after some demonstrators damaged a vehicle. Khyber MNA Iqbal Afridi said the protest aimed to highlight civilian casualties, adding that locals felt “powerless” amid ongoing militancy. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sohail Afridi ordered an inquiry into the incident, directing action against those responsible, while police did not issue an official statement.
The Middle East
Lebanon: Hezbollah lawmaker says that the ceasefire with Israel is meaningless after a three-week extension is announced
On 24 April, Reuters reported that Hezbollah said the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was meaningless as Israel continued to attack southern Lebanon. The group also added that it had the right to respond to such aggression. These comments came one day after US President Donald Trump announced a three-week extension on 23 April, following a meeting with Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors in Washington. The ceasefire agreement was previously set for 10 days and was scheduled to expire on 26 April. Ali Fayyad, a Lebanese Member of Parliament from Hezbollah, stated that "the ceasefire is meaningless in light of Israel's insistence on hostile acts." Despite the ceasefire, exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel persist in southern Lebanon, where Israel has established a military presence in order to secure a buffer zone. Fayyad added that any Israeli aggression against Lebanese figures gave Hezbollah "the right to respond proportionately."
Lebanon: Israel intensifies attacks on south Lebanon despite ceasefire; Nine civilians killed and evacuation alerts issued to eight towns
On 30 April, Al Jazeera reported that Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed nine civilians as Tel Aviv intensified artillery shelling in the region. The attacks were launched despite a three-week extension to the US-mediated ceasefire with Lebanon. The Israeli Defence Forces also warned residents of eight towns outside of the "buffer zone" to evacuate their homes immediately ahead of strikes. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz threatened that Lebanon’s fate will be like Gaza’s, despite the ceasefire agreement. Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun decried the “continuing Israeli violations” in southern Lebanon, highlighting that they were launched “despite the ceasefire, as do demolitions of homes and places of worship, while the number of killed and wounded rises day after day”. “Pressure must be exerted on Israel to ensure it respects international laws and conventions and ceases targeting civilians, paramedics, civil defence, and humanitarian health and relief organisations,” he added.
Lebanon: Division among top officials hindering Saudi mediation efforts
On 30 April, Reuters reported that a growing divide between top Lebanese officials has hindered Saudi Arabia's efforts to help Lebanon have a united position over negotiations with Israel. Riyadh has deepened its engagement with Beirut in recent days after Hezbollah was severely weakened by Israel in 2024. The US had hoped that the recent truce between Israel and Lebanon would lead to direct negotiations on a peace agreement. However, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri are divided over the format and objectives of the negotiations. President Aoun supports direct talks with Israel and has expressed desire for permanent peace agreements. Berri, who is a Hezbollah ally, opposes direct talks with Israel and supports a non-aggression pact instead of a complete peace agreement. Last week, Saudi envoy Prince Yazid bin Farhan visited Beirut to help Lebanese leaders find common ground. However, tensions between Aoun and Berri derailed Saudi plans to organise a meeting between Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, President Aoun and Berri this week.
The War in Gaza: Palestinians vote in symbolic local body elections, marking the first electoral process in two decades
On 25 April, Palestinians in central Gaza voted in the first local body elections since the outbreak of the war in 2023, marking the first electoral process in the enclave in 20 years. The elections were held in the city of Deir-Balah, which is one of the regions relatively less devastated by the war, with the least population displacement and Israeli occupation. The voting is largely symbolic as official decision-making in the enclave is carried out with Israeli approval. The polls are being organized by the Central Elections Commission, an independent PA-affiliated body that runs elections in Palestinian territories. Palestinians will vote for independent, apolitical electoral lists rather than individual candidates, with four groups contesting. Under a new electoral law introduced by the Palestinian Authority, the minimum age for candidates has been reduced to 18, and a quota has been established, reserving 25 per cent of seats for women. The Palestinian Authority expressed hope that the inclusion of the Gazan city of Deir-Balah would bolster its claim to authority, Reuters reported. Several Palestinian factions are boycotting the elections in protest against the Palestinian Authority’s requirement that candidates endorse its existing agreements, including recognition of the state of Israel. Meanwhile, Hamas, which has governed Gaza for nearly two decades, has not officially fielded any candidates.
The War in Gaza: Palestinian Authority sweeps victory in municipal elections; Voter turnout stands at 23 per cent in Gaza and 56 per cent in the West Bank
On 26 April, loyalists of President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) won most races in Palestinian municipal elections. The symbolic elections marked the first electoral exercise in the enclave since 2006, and recorded a low voter turnout of 23 per cent in Gaza and 56 per cent in the West Bank. Hamas had not officially fielded any candidates in the election and factions affiliated with the group also failed to secure a victory. Chairman of the Central Elections Commission ?Rami al?Hamdallah stated that ballot boxes and voting equipment did not make it to some parts of the enclave due to Israeli restrictions.
Saudi Arabia: Riyadh chairs first in-person GCC meeting on Iran strikes; GCC’s political and military response “weakest in history,” criticises the UAE’s top official
On 28 April, Reuters reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chaired a consultative meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Jeddah, the first in-person meeting of Gulf leaders since the war began. Sources revealed that the meeting hinged on responding to the Iranian strikes on the Gulf states during the course of the war, including the attacks on critical energy infrastructure across six GCC states. Qatar's emir, Kuwait's crown prince, Bahrain's king and the United Arab Emirates' foreign minister attended the summit. Saudi state media said the summit discussed "topics and issues related to regional and international developments, and the coordination of efforts regarding them." The UAE has levelled severe criticism against the GCC in their response to the war, as senior UAE official Anwar Gargash stated that while the forum ensures mutual logistical support, “politically and militarily, I think their position was the weakest in history.” "I expected such a weak position from the Arab League, and I am not surprised by it, but I have not expected it from the GCC, and I am surprised by it," he added.
The UAE: Abu Dhabi leaves OPEC amid emerging differences with Gulf states
On 28 April, Reuters reported that the United Arab Emirates is quitting the organisations OPEC and OPEC+. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the UAE made this decision after carefully considering Abu Dhabi’s strategies and future production policies. He also said the UAE did not consult any other country, including Saudi Arabia, which is considered the de facto leader of OPEC. He added that the UAE's exit from the organization will not have a significant impact on the oil market, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This announcement comes after the UAE criticised its neighbouring Arab states for not doing enough to protect it from Iranian attacks. Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said on Monday that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries provided very limited support to one another in political and military terms.
THE US - IRAN WAR
Day 56
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Foreign Minister Araqchi to join peace negotiations in Islamabad; Washington “not anxious” for a deal, says Pete Hegseth; US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz strengthens
On 24 April, Reuters reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is expected to join the peace negotiations in Islamabad. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Washington was “not anxious” for a deal with Iran and that "the ball is in [Iran's] court.” He asserted that Tehran has the chance to make a “good deal” if they abandon their nuclear weapons programme “in meaningful and verifiable ways.” Hegseth added that Washington’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is “growing and going global," and that no vessels will be allowed passage without US permission. US General Dan Cain stated that the US Command will maintain a strict blockade on all ports in Iran and is “prepared and postured to intercept” any transgressors. Thirty-four ships had been turned around so far, he said.
DAY 57
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Tehran refuses direct talks with the US, rejects “maximalist demands”
On 25 April, Reuters reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi outlined its demands and concerns regarding the US position after arriving in Islamabad. Araqchi held meetings with Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and other high-level officials. A statement on Mr Araqchi's Telegram account said the minister "explained our country's principled positions regarding the latest developments related to the ceasefire and the complete end of the imposed war against Iran." Another Iranian diplomat commented on the US's demands and said that Iran will not accept any "maximalist demands." Washington dispatched President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad. However, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson posted on X that the Iranian delegation did not plan to meet with US representatives and would hold talks only with Pakistani officials.
Iran to make offer satisfying US demands, claims Trump
On 25 April, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump said on 24 April that the Iranians planned to make an offer that would satisfy US demands. He added that the US was now dealing with "people that are in charge now." Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, stated the US had seen some progress from Iran and hoped for more developments this weekend. Vice President JD Vance is also ready to travel to Islamabad. Meanwhile, international flights also resumed from Iran's Imam Khomeini International Airport on Saturday. The first flights departed for Medina, Muscat and Istanbul.
DAY 59
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Islamabad continues mediation efforts despite failure of planned visit by US envoys; Tehran’s phased proposal stands at odds with Washington’s emphasis on nuclear issues
On 27 April, Reuters reported that Pakistan continues efforts to mediate between the US and Iran despite the breakdown of diplomatic efforts. This follows the cancellation of a planned visit by US envoys after President Donald Trump called off the trip. The prospects for restarting negotiations have been dim since Washington scrapped the 25 April visit of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited Pakistan and Oman before arriving in Russia on 26 April to meet President Vladimir Putin.
Trump stated that the Iranian offer was insufficient, adding that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough.” He further stated: “If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure ?lines.” Trump went on to reiterate Washington’s core demand, stating: “They know what has to be in the agreement. It’s very simple: They cannot have a nuclear weapon; otherwise, there’s no reason to meet.” On the other hand, Iranian sources outlined a phased proposal beginning with ending the US-Israeli war on Iran and securing guarantees against its resumption. Subsequent stages would address sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz, and eventually the nuclear issue, with Iran continuing to seek US acknowledgement of its right to peaceful uranium enrichment. However, this phased proposal stands at odds with Washington’s emphasis on prioritizing nuclear issues.
Pakistani officials stated that negotiations were still taking place remotely, but noted that in-person meeting is unlikely until both sides get close to sign an agreement. “Both sides could be settling in for a test of wills to see who can endure economic pain before making concessions,” noted Reuters.
DAY 60
Tehran proposes Hormuz reopening as talks stall over nuclear issue; Iran, in a “State of Collapse,” wants Washington to open the Strait of Hormuz, claims Trump
On 28 April, Al Jazeera reported that Iran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz conditionally, in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade. However, there is also a proposal to negotiate its nuclear programme. The proposal, conveyed via Islamabad, aims to de-escalate tensions on the ground and stabilise energy flows disrupted by the closure of the strait. As per Reuters, US officials have maintained that President Trump wants nuclear issues “dealt with from the outset.” The Trump administration expressed reluctance, with officials sceptical of the absence of nuclear provisions and warning against what they consider to be conceding leverage. Via Truth Social, Trump stated that "Iran has just informed us that they are in a 'State of Collapse'. They want us to 'Open the Hormuz Strait,' as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter!", while Reuters has noted that it remains unclear as to how Tehran may have communicated the same. According to The Hindu, while the White House confirmed it is reviewing the proposed plan, early reports suggest rejection in its current form.
DAY 61
Trump's proposed deal: President Trump urges Iran to make a deal as the US prepares to extend its blockade
On April 29, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal with the US soon. Posting on Truth Social, Trump said that Iran doesn't know how to sign a non-nuclear deal and it should get smart soon. According to another report, President Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. Officials said that the US President believes that bombing Iran or leaving the conflict would be risky choices, prompting him to squeeze the Iranian economy through a blockade. The Iranian Student News Agency said on Wednesday that Iran's Rial fell to a record low of 1.8 million rials per the US dollar. The proposal made by Iran to end the conflict demands that its nuclear programme be discussed only when the conflict ends and shipping issues are resolved. This proposal contradicts President Trump's demand of the nuclear issue being discussed as a part of the deal. Last weekend, President Trump also scrapped a visit by his envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Pakistan. He also met top officials from US energy companies to discuss oil production, gas and shipping. According to a poll by Reuters, only 34 per cent of Americans approve of President Trump's leadership, putting him under strong domestic pressure.
EU warns aftermath of Iran war may last longer than predicted
Von der Leyen urges shift to clean energy as Iran war triggers prolonged crisis risks
On 29 April, The Guardian reported that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned the Iran war may have long term economic and energy impacts. She urged the EU to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. She spoke before the European Parliament “There is also a harsh reality we all need to face: the consequences of this conflict may echo for months or even years to come.” Rising energy prices following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified supply concerns and increased the costs of imports. She also remarked “This is the second energy crisis within four years, and the lesson should be very clear. Our overdependency on imported fossil fuels makes us vulnerable.“ The EU is now considering further policy measures, though differences exist among member states over the scale and also the pace of response.
DAY 62
Tehran threatens to retaliate as tensions increase oil prices; Washington calls for a global coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz
On 30 April, Reuters reported that Iran has warned of a “long and painful” strike if the US resumes attacks, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz persist. Oil prices have surged amid stalled talks and continued supply disruptions. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said new management of the Strait of Hormuz would bring stability and economic benefits. Iran's Supreme Leader stated Tehran will secure the Gulf region and curb what he believed is "the enemy's abuses of the waterway.” On 29 April, Reuters also reported that the United States is urging its allies to form a coalition to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz amid stalled efforts to resolve the conflict. Oil prices have surged on supply fears, with tensions escalating as negotiations remain deadlocked.
The Iran war has cost USD 25 billion so far, reveals Pentagon
On 29 April, Reuters reported that the US war with Iran has cost USD 25 billion according to a senior Pentagon official. This is the first official estimate of the USA's expenditure on the conflict. Jules Hurst informed the House Armed Services Committee that most of this money was spent on munitions. Jules did not provide details on what the estimate included and whether the cost of repairing damaged US bases was included. Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said he was glad to receive this information after repeated requests. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that this cost was justified because the American objective was to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. He attacked Democrats for their stance on the Iran war, which he said, hands propaganda to the enemies of the US.
Oil prices retreat after hitting a four-year high amid US-Iran war concerns
On 30 April, Reuters reported that global oil prices had surged above USD 126 per barrel, the highest since 2022 on fears of escalating US-Iran conflict and a threat of prolonged supply disruptions, before retreating amid heightened market volatility. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 per cent of global oil flows, has sharply constrained the existing supply. Analysts have noted that extreme price swings reflect the uncertainty over potential US military action and stalled negotiations. Sustained volatility is therefore expected due to fuel global inflation, raise fuel costs, and weigh on economic growth.
DAY 63
Iran presents a new proposal; Top UAE official says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz
On 01 May, Reuters reported that UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said that Iran could not be trusted to make unilateral arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz. Gargash, highlighting the interests of the Gulf states, said the "collective international will and provisions of international law" were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the Strait. He further added that no unilateral arrangement by Iran could be trusted following its "treacherous aggression against all its neighbors." Iran also sent a new proposal for negotiations with the United States to Pakistani mediators which led to a drop in oil prices. The Iranian state news agency gave no details of this proposal. According to reports, US President Trump was briefed on plans for new military strikes to force Iran to negotiate. In response, Iran has activated air defences and plans a wider retaliation.
The Trump administration cites the April ceasefire to counter the War Powers Resolution at the 60-day deadline
On 01 March, Reuters reported that senior Trump officials argued that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in April and the subsequent suspension of hostilities bypasses the 01 May deadline on achieving congressional approval for the US-Israel war against Iran. "For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February 28, have terminated," said the official.
The War Powers Resolution is a federal law passed in 1973 to limit the president’s ability to engage the US forces in armed conflict without congressional approval. Enacted in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, it requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying troops and prohibits forces from continuing hostilities for more than 60 days, with a possible 30-day withdrawal period, unless Congress authorizes the action or declares war. The act aims to ensure that war-time decisions are in line with the Constitution’s division of war powers where only the Congress declares war and the president serves as Commander-in-Chief.
In the US-Israel war against Iran which began on 28 February, the deadline was set to expire on 01 May. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers at a Senate hearing with the ceasefire in place, the “60-day clock pauses, or stops.”
US Navy awards USD 99 million contract to AI firm to accelerate mine detection in the Strait of Hormuz
On 01 May, Reuters reported that the US Navy is accelerating its AI capabilities to track and remove mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy has awarded a USD 99 million contract to San Francisco based artificial intelligence company Domino Data Lab to develop software that can train underwater drones to identify new types of mines. The project is central to the Navy’s Project AMMO - Accelerated Machine Learning for Maritime Operations - a program to make underwater mine detection faster, more accurate, and less dependent on human sailors. “The Navy is paying for the platform that lets it train, govern, and field that AI at a speed required for contested waters,” said Domino's CEO, Thomas Robinson. Prior to the initiative, updating AI models for the navy’s unmanned underwater vehicles to detect new or previously unseen mines could take up to six months; Domino says it has reduced that timeline to just days.
Iran’s President and Parliamentary Speaker seek Foreign Minister Araqchi’s ouster over ties with the IRGC leadership, reports Iran International; Speaker Ghalibaf accuses Trump of exploiting internal divisions to force “surrender”
On 01 May, Iran International, in an exclusive report stated that Iran’s president and parliament speaker are reportedly seeking the removal of Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, accusing him of following directives from the Revolutionary Guard Commander Ahmad Vahidi during nuclear negotiations without informing the presidency. President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf expressed disagreements over the conduct of the war and its damaging impact on livelihoods and the economy. The report also highlighted the president's frustration over the “complete political deadlock” and had been stripped of the authority to appoint replacements for officials killed during the conflict. According to the report, Ahmad Vahidi argued that, given the wartime situation, all key and sensitive positions should be directly controlled by the Revolutionary Guards.
On 30 April, CNN reported that Speaker Ghalibaf had accused President Trump of attempting to force Iran into “surrender” through economic pressure and by exploiting internal divisions. Ghalibaf accused Iran’s adversaries of trying to weaken the country from within through “siege tactics and media manipulation.” He urged public unity as the main defence against what he called a new “conspiracy,” saying “every divisive action is part of the enemy’s plan” and that officials remain aligned with the supreme leader. He did not specify the nature of the divisions.
Africa
Chad: Deadly clashes over water dispute kills 42
On 27 April, BBC reported that at least 42 people were killed and 10 injured in intercommunal violence in Chad’s eastern Wadi Fira province, sparked by a dispute over a water well that escalated into widespread reprisal attacks. Authorities said villages were burned as the conflict spread, prompting the deployment of a delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Limane Mahamat, who said the situation had been brought under control. Officials warned that recurring clashes - often driven by competition over water and grazing land - have intensified amid pressure from refugees fleeing the war in Sudan. Rights groups, including Amnesty International, say weak state responses and climate stress have fuelled cycles of violence and “a sense of impunity” in affected communities.
Mali: Russia’s Africa Corps withdraws from Kidal amid escalating violence
On 27 April, Reuters reported that Russia’s Africa Corps confirmed its withdrawal from the northern Malian town of Kidal following intense fighting. The paramilitary group, which operates under Russia’s defence ministry and supports the Malian government, stated that the withdrawal was carried out alongside Malian army forces and in coordination with national leadership. The withdrawal occurred amid a surge in coordinated attacks across Mali by armed groups, including an al-Qaeda-linked organisation and a Tuareg-led rebel movement. These attacks targeted multiple locations, including Kidal, Bamako, Gao, and Mopti, involving explosions and sustained gunfire. The escalation also included high-level casualties, notably the killing of Mali’s defence minister during the wave of attacks. The United Nations condemned the violence and called for an international response, citing concerns over worsening instability.
Mali: Attacks and coup claims highlight security challenges and Russia role
On 27-28 April, The Guardian and Al Jazeera reported that Mali faced a series of coordinated attacks by militant and separatist groups raising concerns about the country’s security situation and Russia’s role. Armed groups targeted towns and military bases, leading to heavy fighting and instability, and forcing Russian backed forces to withdraw from some areas. The attacks also resulted in the death of Mali’s defence minister highlighting serious security challenges. During this period, Mali’s military leader Assimi Goita reappeared after being out of sight for several days which had raised concerns about stability. Russia, a key ally of Mali’s military government, said it helped stop what it described as a coup attempt linked to the violence. Goita later stated that the situation was under control and that operations against armed groups would continue. Experts said the attacks raise doubts about how effective Russia is in supporting Mali’s security and could affect its wider influence in Africa. The developments highlight ongoing instability and challenges in controlling militant threats in the country.
Mali: Army retakes town after insurgents withdraw
On 29 April, Reuters reported that Mali’s army had taken back control of a town near the Niger border after insurgents linked to Islamic State left the area. Local residents said the militants had entered the town earlier during recent attacks across the country. The attacks were part of a wider wave of violence by armed groups, including those linked to al Qaeda and separatist fighters. The fighting caused instability in several areas and also led to the death of Mali’s defence minister. Some forces, including those supported by Russia, had to withdraw from certain areas during the attacks. The army has now increased patrols and operations to regain control and prevent further attacks. However, the situation remains tense and unstable in many parts of the country. The development shows that militant groups continue to pose a serious threat in Mali despite ongoing military efforts.
Mali: Al Qaeda-linked insurgents urge uprising and call for Sharia rule
On 01 May, Reuters reported that the Al Qaeda-linked group Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has urged Malians to rise up against the military-led government and move towards the establishment of Sharia law, following a series of coordinated attacks across the country. In a statement issued in French, the group called on “all sincere patriots” to unite against what it described as a terrorist junta,extending its call to political actors, members of the armed forces and broader sections of society. The statement follows the 25 April assaults carried out jointly with the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), which targeted multiple military positions, including areas close to the capital Bamako, and resulted in the capture of Kidal. Reports also suggest that JNIM has set up checkpoints along key routes which appears to be an attempt to consolidate its presence. Mali’s military leader Assimi Goita stated that the situation is under control and vowed to neutralise the insurgent forces linked to the attacks.
Nigeria: IS claims responsibility for attack that killed 29
On 28 April, BBC reported that gunmen linked to the Islamic State (IS) killed at least 29 people in a village attack in Adamawa state, northeastern Nigeria. Local officials said militants opened fire on civilians gathered at a football pitch in Guyaku before burning homes, places of worship and motorcycles. State governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri condemned the assault as an “affront to our humanity” and vowed to intensify security operations. Authorities said the hours-long attack has left communities gripped by fear, with families fleeing amid concerns of further violence. The incident highlights persistent insecurity in Nigeria’s northeast, where insurgency by groups such as Boko Haram and IS-affiliated factions has killed thousands and displaced millions since 2009.
On 27 April, BBC reported that eight children remain missing after gunmen attacked an unregistered orphanage in Kogi state, north-central Nigeria, abducting 23 people. Authorities said 15 children were rescued following a “prompt and coordinated response” by security forces, while the orphanage owner was also kidnapped. Information Commissioner Kingsley Fanwo said the facility was operating illegally and urged stricter compliance with regulations. No group has claimed responsibility, though officials cited the presence of a Boko Haram cell in the area. The incident underscores Nigeria’s worsening kidnap crisis, where mass abductions, particularly in schools, have become frequent despite a ban on ransom payments, fuelling ongoing insecurity across the region.
Somalia: Oil tanker hijacked off Somalia
On 24 April, BBC reported that pirates hijacked an oil tanker, “Honour 25”, off the coast of Somalia, with 17 crew members on board, including 10 Pakistanis. The vessel was seized by six gunmen roughly 30 nautical miles offshore before additional armed men boarded, bringing the total to around eleven. Carrying 18,500 barrels of oil, the tanker is now anchored near the Puntland coast between Xaafun and Bander Beyla. The incident marks a resurgence of piracy in the Indian Ocean, which had seen a decline until recent years. Officials warned the hijacking could worsen fuel shortages in Mogadishu, where petrol prices have already surged amid regional instability linked to the US-Iran conflict.
Somalia: Second vessel seized by Somalian pirates
On 27 April, BBC reported that maritime authorities raised alarm over a resurgence of piracy off the coast of Somalia after multiple vessels were targeted in recent days. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) upgraded the threat level to “substantial”, warning that “unauthorised persons” had seized a cargo ship and redirected it into Somali waters. At least four vessels - including an oil tanker and fishing boats - have been targeted within a week, signalling a renewed pattern of attacks in the Indian Ocean. Officials cautioned that favourable weather conditions are enabling pirate operations, urging ships to transit “with caution”. The warning follows the hijacking of the tanker “Honour 25”, highlighting growing risks to global shipping routes in a region once plagued by piracy.
South Africa: US weighs expanding refugee intake for Afrikaners
On 24 April, Africa News reported that the administration of Donald Trump is considering more than doubling the annual refugee admissions cap to prioritise white South Africans, particularly Afrikaners. The proposal would raise the 2026 ceiling from 7500 by up to 10,000 additional places, significantly expanding a programme already largely focused on this group. Trump has claimed Afrikaners face persecution and land dispossession, allegations strongly rejected by the South African government and civil society groups. Data cited in the report shows about 4500 South Africans have already been admitted this fiscal year, compared to just three Afghans. The move has drawn scrutiny, with critics questioning its basis and noting that some admitted individuals have reportedly returned home, raising doubts about claims of widespread persecution.
Sudan: Child Alert issued by UNICEF as children face extreme hunger and violence amid the civil war
On 28 April, Reuters reported that children in the Darfur region of Sudan are facing severe humanitarian conditions, with the United Nations warning that they have reached a critical threshold. UNICEF issued a “Child Alert,” a rare mechanism used to signal extreme crises. This marks the first such alert for Darfur in two decades. Approximately five million children across the region are affected by extreme deprivation as the civil war enters its fourth year. The crisis includes widespread violence, displacement, and acute hunger. Children are being killed, injured, and forced to flee their homes, while access to basic services has been severely disrupted. Homes, schools, and healthcare facilities have been damaged or destroyed, further limiting access to essential support systems. Conditions are particularly severe in areas such as North Darfur, where malnutrition has reached critical levels and violence continues to escalate. Reports indicate that children are also exposed to recruitment by armed groups and other forms of exploitation. Despite the scale of the crisis, humanitarian assistance remains limited. UNICEF has highlighted the urgency of increased international support as the situation continues to deteriorate across the region.
Tanzania: President promises reform after deadly post-election violence
On 24 April, Africa News reported that Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan pledged constitutional reforms following post-election violence in Tanzania that left 518 people dead and at least 2000 injured, according to a government commission. The opposition disputed the findings, calling them “an attempt to whitewash the regime’s crimes”. Hassan said the report would guide amendments and announced plans for a reconciliation commission and a criminal investigative body to probe unrest, including disappearances and alleged abductions, with over 200 people still unaccounted for. “Chaos erupted but did not solve our problems,” she said. The violence followed the disputed October 2025 election, which critics said fell short of being free and fair.
The DRC: Hundreds of Congolese refugees repatriated from Burundi
On 24 April, Africa News reported that hundreds of refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo were voluntarily repatriated from Burundi’s Busuma camp in Buhumuza Province, amid ongoing conflict in eastern Congo. Many cited harsh living conditions, with one returnee saying, “there are diseases…it’s hard to get water and food; it’s a real mess.” The repatriation, organised by the UNHCR, remains strictly voluntary, with officials stressing that only those able to return to relatively secure areas are eligible. The camp hosts tens of thousands displaced by fighting involving the M23, which has driven mass displacement across the region, with over 100,000 refugees in Burundi alone.
The DRC: US imposes sanctions on Congo's former President Joseph Kabila
On 30 April, Reuters reported that the United States placed sanctions on former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila saying he supported the Rwanda backed M23 rebel group and added to instability in eastern Congo. The US said Kabila helped the group financially and encouraged some soldiers to leave the national army. The conflict in eastern Congo has caused many deaths and forced large numbers of people to leave their homes. The sanctions are part of US efforts to reduce violence and support peace between Congo and Rwanda. Under the sanctions any assets linked to Kabila in the US will be frozen and he will not be able to use the US financial system. Congo’s government supported the decision while Kabila denied the claims. This move shows ongoing international concern over the conflict in eastern Congo and efforts to bring stability to the region.
The DRC: Mining security force launched
On 27 April, Africa News reported that the Democratic Republic of Congo announced the creation of a paramilitary guard to secure its mining sector, backed by funding from the United States and United Arab Emirates. The unit, led by the General Inspectorate of Mines, will begin with 2,500-3,000 personnel and expand to over 20,000 by 2028, tasked with protecting mine sites, escorting mineral shipments and strengthening oversight. Officials said the initiative aims to curb illegal mining and improve transparency in a sector that produces around 70 per cent of the world’s cobalt and holds major reserves of copper, lithium and coltan. The move comes amid ongoing conflict in eastern Congo and growing global competition over critical mineral supply chains.
Togo: France expresses concern over extremism spillover in the Sahel
On 25 April, Africa News reported that French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot warned of the spread of Islamist extremism into coastal West Africa during talks in Lome with Togolese Foreign Minister Robert Dussey. “We have a common concern… the terrorist threat, which we all want to stem and contain,” he said, highlighting how violence linked to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State has expanded beyond the Sahel into northern parts of Togo. Barrot noted that instability has worsened following French troop withdrawals from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, and described Togo as playing a “pivotal role” in regional mediation. Emphasising France’s continued engagement, he said Paris is backing regional efforts so countries can “fully assume their security and sovereignty” amid shifting alliances and growing external influence.
Europe and the Americas
President Trump and NATO: Trump administration weighs penalties for NATO allies; Considers Spain's suspension from NATO and reconsiders the UK's claims over the Falkland Islands, reports Reuters
On 24 April, Reuters reported on an internal Pentagon email that outlines options for the US to punish the NATO allies it believes failed to support Washington's operations in its war with Iran. The options reportedly include suspending Spain from the alliance and a review of the US position on the UK's claim to the Falkland Islands, reassessing its long-standing support for the “imperial possessions of Europe” due to the lack of support it received in the Iran war. The UK and Argentina fought a short war in 1982 over the islands after Argentina made a failed bid to take them. Eventually, Argentina surrendered, and the US has historically supported the British claim over the island. A spokesperson for the UK's Prime Minister’s office has strongly maintained that “Sovereignty rests with the UK and the islands' right to self-determination is paramount. It's been our consistent position and will remain the case.”
Washington has also expressed frustration with Spain, where the leadership said it would not allow its bases or airspace to be used to attack Iran. The US reportedly has two important military bases in Spain, the Naval Station Rota and the Morón Air Base. The Trump administration insists that suspending Spain from the NATO alliance would have only a limited impact on military operations but would have significant symbolic repercussions. Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez was quoted as saying, "We do not work off emails. We work off official documents and government positions, in this case of the United States.”
On 24 April, the BBC reported on NATO’s statement. A NATO official was quoted by the BBC as saying, “The organisation's founding treaty does not foresee any provision for suspension of Nato membership, or expulsion,” in response to the US proposal to suspend Spain from the NATO framework. Italian Prime Minister Meloni has also urged NATO to band together in the wake of the Pentagon email, claiming that the alliance is a “source of strength.”
The US and Venezuela: US eases sanctions on Maduro to allow payment of his legal fees in drug case
On 25 April, Reuters reported that the United States had agreed to ease the sanctions on Venezuela to allow the government to pay legal fees for its former president, Nicolás Maduro, ensuring the continuity of his drug trafficking trial. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured by US forces earlier in 2026 in Caracas. They were captured on charges of narcoterrorism and have pleaded not guilty to the charges. The dispute initially emerged after sanctions blocked the payments from the Venezuelan government. However, defence lawyers argued that this violated Maduro’s constitutional right to a fair legal representation. A US judge has also questioned the justification for restricting payments, emphasising the vitality of legal representation rights for the accused. Prosecutors, however, have defended these sanctions on grounds of national security.
The War in Ukraine: Washington and Riyadh facilitate a major prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia
On 24 April 2026, Reuters reported that Ukraine and Russia carried out a prisoner exchange where each side released 193 prisoners of war. The deal was helped by the United States and the United Arab Emirates. In total, 386 people were freed, making it one of the notable humanitarian steps in the ongoing war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the exchange was important because it brought many citizens back home. The released Ukrainians included soldiers, border guards, and police officers. Some of them were injured or had faced legal cases while in captivity. When they returned, many were emotional and reunited with their families. Some were seen wrapped in Ukrainian flags, expressing relief after spending years in detention. One soldier said he felt happy to be free after three years. Even though the conflict continues, such prisoner exchanges are one of the few areas where both sides still cooperate.
The War in Ukraine: Kyiv may need to cede territory for peace with Russia and EU membership, says Germany’s Chancellor Merz
On 27 April, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Ukraine must cede control over some of its territory to achieve a peace deal with Russia, and for its membership in the European Union. "At some point, Ukraine will sign a ceasefire agreement; at some point, hopefully, a peace treaty with Russia. Then it may be that part of Ukraine's territory is no longer Ukrainian," Merz said. Merz cautioned against expectations of swift EU accession, that membership even by 2028 might be unrealistic despite Kyiv’s status as an official EU candidate. Ukraine cannot join while at war and must first meet strict criteria, including on rule of law and anti-corruption, he emphasised. He proposed interim steps such as granting Ukraine observer status in EU institutions, an idea he said received broad backing from European leaders at last week’s Cyprus summit attended by Zelensky. The EU also approved a EUR 90 billion loan covering most of Ukraine’s needs through 2027.
The War in Ukraine: Kyiv seeks weapon support from Tokyo following relaxations in export-restrictions
On 01 May, Reuters, in an exclusive report, revealed that Japan’s easing of its weapons-export restrictions opens the door to talks that could eventually lead to Tokyo supplying military equipment to support Ukraine. Kyiv's ambassador to Japan, Yurii Lutovinov, stated that the move was “a very big step forward,” and that “Indo-Pacific and the European continent are inseparable from the point of view of our security." Lutovinov stated that Ukraine is proceeding cautiously given Japan’s sensitivities around defence exports. In the near term, he suggested Tokyo could help fund the development of an air-defence system to reduce reliance on scarce US-made Patriot missiles. He added that talks are also under way on Japan contributing to NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), which finances the purchase of U.S. military equipment for Kyiv.
Germany: Chancellor Merz criticises US as Iran talks stall amid rising tensions
On 27 April, Reuters reported that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Iran has been “humiliating” the United States as the negotiations have stalled despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Merz has critiqued Washington’s strategy, questioning its intentions on how it aims to bring the conflict to a conclusion. Merz also insisted that European allies were not consulted by either Israel or US, prior to the conflict, and also expressed his displeasure on the initiation of a conflict to President Trump himself. He also mentioned that there was growing unease among the European allies over the trajectory of the conflict. During his interaction Merz also pointed out the economic impacts of the war which he believes is costing Germany "a lot of money, a lot of taxpayers' money and a lot of economic strength."
Mexico: President Sheinbaum warns the US over its role in anti-drug operations
On 27 April, Reuters reported that Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said US involvement in anti-drug operations in Mexico should not happen again without proper approval. The warning came after an incident in the state of Chihuahua, where two US officials and two Mexican officials died in a car crash after an operation. Sheinbaum said the Mexican government was not informed about the role of the US personnel. She stressed that any foreign involvement must follow Mexico’s laws and respect its sovereignty. Mexico has sent a message to the United States asking that such incidents should not be repeated. While Mexico supports cooperation with the US against drug cartels, it does not allow foreign agents to take part directly in operations inside the country. The incident shows ongoing concerns in Mexico about foreign involvement and the need to protect national control over security matters.