CWA # 2200
Conflict Weekly
The US-Iran War I UNCLOS and the South China Sea Award
Review of the UN SDG Report 2026
NIAS Conflict Weekly, Vol. 7, No. 340, 17 July 2026
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NIAS Global Politics Team
17 July 2026
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CW Note
The US-Iran War, Week 20:
Renewed Strikes, Collapsed MoU and the Blockade of the Strait
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
In the news
On 08 July, President Trump declared that the US-Iran ceasefire was “over,” after clashes broke out between the two countries following Tehran’s strikes against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington’s retaliatory strikes on 07 July. Additionally, the US reinstated previously lifted oil-related sanctions on Iran.
On 10 July, Trump said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks’”; Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman denied that new negotiations had been requested.
On 11 July, the IRGC said that the Strait of Hormuz was closed.
On 12 July, US Central Command (CENTCOM) refuted that the Strait was closed, saying, “Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.”
On 13 July, President Trump said the US would take over the Strait of Hormuz and that it should be reimbursed for controlling and providing protection of the waterway at a rate of 20 per cent on all cargo shipped.
On 14 July, President Trump said he had decided to scrap the 20 per cent toll, but would continue to blockade Iran’s ports. Additionally, Trump stated to Fox News that the US and Iran held talks despite attacks.
On 15 July, Trump threatened to expand US strikes on Iran in the upcoming weeks if Tehran does not agree to a deal amid a continuing dispute over the Strait of Hormuz; “Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges,” he said.
Beyond these developments, the US and Iran exchanged multiple strikes between 07 and 15 July.
Issues at large
1. The collapse of the MoU
The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, however tentative, has effectively unravelled. The agreement established the following provisions: IAEA supervision, termination of “all types” of sanctions, termination of military operations on all fronts, removal of the US naval blockade, and the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This structure offered each side relative gains: Washington gained oversight of Iran's nuclear programme, and Tehran secured economic relief. Measured against this baseline, all provisions of the MoU have been violated or left unfulfilled. Additionally, Trump's explicit declaration that the ceasefire was "over” and the sustained intensification of hostilities over the week further illustrate the MoU’s collapse.
2. Renewed escalation
Beyond the collapse of the MoU's individual provisions, the week is characterised by renewed escalations on the ground. Strikes moved from targeted exchanges to near-daily confrontations, with both sides reporting attacks on dozens of targets. The strikes by the US have focused on Iran’s air defence systems, coastal radar sites, and missile and drone capabilities, focusing on southern, eastern, and coastal provinces. Iran's strikes have extended to US military assets and defence infrastructure in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, and Qatar, as well as any “unauthorised” vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike the post-MoU violation on 27 June, where the ceasefire persisted nominally, alongside sporadic strikes regarding the Strait of Hormuz, this week is marked by sustained and intensifying exchanges.
3. Confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait has displaced the nuclear question as the conflict’s central point of contestation. Nuclear inspections, the conflict’s focal point once the MoU was signed, do not drive the confrontation; the renewed cycle of strikes instead traces to Iran's attack on commercial vessels in Hormuz on 07 July, with the conflict organised around control of the waterway and the flow of traffic through it. Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait and Washington's decision to enforce a blockade of Iran’s ports and coastal areas represent a regression in the conflict. Additionally, both parties are asserting competing claims over the energy corridor: CENTCOM's assertion that "traffic is flowing" through Hormuz, against Iran's claim of having closed it, exemplify the increasing contention over the Strait.
In perspective
First, the memorandum of understanding, which was already fragile, does not seem to hold in any meaningful manner, with nearly all its provisions violated. Additionally, the conflict appears to have reverted to a pre-MoU context of contradictory statements, strikes on US military bases in the Gulf by Iran, strikes on Iran’s defence capabilities by the US, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a US naval blockade and threats to civilian infrastructure. The week’s developments highlight that the conflict has essentially reverted to a new square one.
Second, the Strait of Hormuz occupies the centre of contestation again. The renewed escalation tied to Iran’s attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent imposition of a naval blockade by the US, closure of the Strait by Iran, and proposed levies on cargo travelling through the Strait – all demonstrate the reiteration of Hormuz as a determining element of the conflict.
Third, given the week's developments, the conflict appears likely to persist rather than move toward resolution. Trump's repeated assertions that Iran has sought talks, denied by Iran’s Foreign Ministry, alongside his claim that talks were held even as strikes continued, against a backdrop of intensifying strikes, make a de-escalation difficult to anticipate or ascertain.
CW Note
UNCLOS and the South China Sea Arbitral Award:
Ten Years Later
Aparna A Nair
In the news
On 11 June, fourteen countries issued a joint statement on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award between the Philippines and China. It includes the US, Philippines, Australia, Canada, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The statement reiterated that China’s expansive maritime claims have no legal basis. It also urged that maritime disputes must be resolved peacefully in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and not with ‘historical right.’ The signatories opposed the use of the coast guard or the military and the disruption of the lawful activities of other states at sea. The statement also urged compliance with the 2016 arbitral award and resolving disputes through lawful mechanisms consistent with international law.
On 12 June, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated China’s sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea and over internal waters, territorial seas, contiguous zones, exclusive economic zones, and continental shelves of those islands. The statement highlighted China’s historic rights in the South China Sea and its commitment to upholding its territorial sovereignty. It also added that land territorial issues are not subject to UNCLOS. Rejecting the 2016 arbitral ruling, China described the award as “a worthless piece of paper that is illegal, null and void, and has no binding force.”
Issues at large
1. The competing territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea
The dispute revolves around multiple overlapping territorial and maritime claims by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. Among these, China claims the largest portion of the sea through its nine-dash line, making it the most contentious claimant. The dispute centres on claims over islands, reefs and surrounding water such as the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Over the years, the claimants have constructed facilities, reclaimed lands and deployed coast guards and naval forces to expand their presence. The South China Sea is one of the world’s busiest shipping routes with abundant fisheries and potential oil and gas reserves. Additionally, countries such as the US emphasise freedom of navigation in the region
2. The legal dispute over maritime entitlements under the 2016 arbitral award
In 2013, the Philippines initiated an arbitration proceeding against China under UNCLOS. It sought to clarify its maritime rights and the legal status of disputed features in the South China Sea. In 2016, the tribunal stated that China’s claims to ‘historic rights’ within the nine-dash line are incompatible with UNCLOS, and that the disputed features do not qualify as islands with full exclusive economic zones. The tribunal also found that China interfered with the Philippines' sovereign rights in fishing and petroleum exploration, engaged in large-scale artificial island construction, and caused environmental damage.
3. China’s rejection and non-adherence to the ruling vs. the Philippines' reliance on the arbitral award to assert its maritime rights
China claims historical sovereignty over the South China Sea islands, rejects compulsory arbitration, and maintains that the dispute should be addressed exclusively by the directly concerned parties. Beijing highlights that the Tribunal lacked jurisdiction because the dispute was on territorial sovereignty and maritime delimitation, which should be settled through negotiation rather than arbitration. On the other hand, Manila views the 2016 arbitral award as a legal victory and as a foundation of its South China Sea policy. The Tribunal also recognised that features such as Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal belong to the Philippines' exclusive economic zones and continental shelf. The award was used to challenge China’s actions that are not in accordance with UNCLOS and to garner international community diplomatic support. Additionally, the country maintains that the rule is legally binding and should be respected, not rejected by the concerned parties.
In perspective
First, the contestation over the 2016 arbitral award highlights the limits of international law. The South China Sea is now a theatre where the rule-based international order and national interests are contested. China challenges the UNCLOS and the 2016 arbitral award on the grounds of its historical sovereignty and national interest. The inability to enforce the award and Beijing’s refusal to recognise the adverse ruling draw attention to the limitations of international law. In this case, to reduce tension, sustained dialogue, confidence-building measures, and progress on the “ASEAN-China code of conduct” are required. Accidental escalations stemming from repeated military or coast guard encounters will have implications for regional security and global commerce.
Second, Internationalisation of the dispute. The joint statement of fourteen countries shows the South China Sea is not just a regional territorial and maritime dispute but one of international concern. The region's relevance in global trade, freedom of navigation, and the need to defend against an adverse ruling made it a matter of global concern. While these countries maintain this view, China continues to oppose foreign interference.
CW Review
The SDG Annual Report 2026:
Six takeaways on a decade of SDG monitoring, global progress, and key challenges
Preetha Renganarayanan
On 07 July 2026, the United Nations released the ‘Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026,’ its annual assessment of global progress towards achieving the 2030 Agenda. The report examines progress across the 17 SDGs and 169 targets using the latest global data. This year's report notes that meaningful gains have been made across several indicators, including social protection, health, electricity and internet access; however, progress remains uneven. Conflicts, climate change, slowing economic growth, rising debt burdens and declining development assistance have been identified as the key sticking points hindering progress.
With the next four years being the decisive window for the 2030 Agenda, the report calls for urgent action by increasing investment, international cooperation, energy transition, access to technology and data, gender equality, and commitments to peace.
The following are six key takeaways from the report.
1. Improved access to electricity, internet, health, and social protection as key SDG achievements in the past decade
Improved access to basic services stood as the major success basket in the last ten years. As per the report, nearly 92 per cent of the world's population now have access to electricity, and approximately one-third of global electricity is generated from renewable sources. Internet access has increased from 40 per cent in 2015 to 74 per cent in 2026. In terms of health outcomes, new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths have come down by nearly one-third, and 134 countries have achieved the target for reducing child mortality. Social protection has reached a historic milestone with more than half of the global population covered by at least one social protection benefit for the first time. The report frames these achievements as reaffirming the central idea of the 2030 Agenda: progress is achievable when strong policies, political will and adequate investment come together.
2. Progress across the SDGs is meaningful but remains uneven and insufficient
Despite meaningful SDG progress, several fundamental development challenges persist. One in ten people still face extreme poverty, 2.3 billion remain food insecure, 2.1 billion lack safely managed drinking water, over 150 million children remain stunted, and maternal mortality is close to three times higher than the global SDG target. The report also notes that one in five people globally continues to face "everyday discrimination," limiting human potential. Implementation gaps remain stark, with 49 per cent of SDG targets progressing too slowly and 15 per cent regressing below their 2015 baseline. Together, these findings reflect that while gains have been made across several indicators, the world is not on course to achieve the 2030 Agenda.
3. Climate change, conflict, and declining development finance as the biggest challenges to achieving the 2030 Agenda
The report argues that the shortfalls in achieving the 2030 Agenda are worsened by the compounding effects of planetary and human-made crises. It identifies climate change, conflict and declining development assistance as collectively reversing decades of development progress. Violent conflict has reached its highest level in decades, forcibly displacing 118 million people worldwide. Climate change continues to expand development risks, with 2025 becoming one of the warmest years on record and atmospheric carbon dioxide reaching its highest concentration in nearly two million years. On development finance, the report notes that 2025 saw official development assistance decline by a record 23 per cent, severely impacting the poorest countries. As developing countries confront an annual SDG financing gap of around USD 4 trillion, global military spending continues to reach record highs. The report therefore calls for integrated solutions, highlighting the close links between climate, conflict and development finance.
4. Historic expansion of data infrastructure amid persistent gaps in gender, climate, and peace data
With 2026 marking a decade of monitoring the SDGs, the report highlights progress in data tracking as a significant but lesser-known achievement. It notes that the global capacity to monitor SDGs has transformed significantly over the past decade. In 2016, nearly half the SDG indicators lacked sufficient data; today, there is a global repository of three million data points covering almost every SDG indicator. The report attributes this progress to stronger national statistical systems, harmonised methodologies and wider use of administrative and geospatial data. At the same time, it observes continuing measurement gaps. Currently, less than one-third of indicators for gender equality, sustainable cities, climate action, and peace and justice have sufficient trend data, hindering effective decision-making. Nonetheless, the progress in SDG monitoring stands crucial as it allows for clarity and precision in tracking, targeting and accountability.
5. The growing importance of Artificial Intelligence in SDG monitoring
Artificial intelligence receives dedicated focus this year through a standalone section titled 'SDG monitoring in the AI era: Renewing official statistics for people, trust and sovereignty,' immediately following the introduction. The report frames AI as both an opportunity and a challenge. It highlights AI's growing role in supporting data collection, quality assurance and statistical analysis, quoting a study that shows that AI is now used across the full life cycle of a survey. At the same time, it warns of risks from misinformation, synthetic data generation and declining trust where official statistics are unavailable. The report also examines AI governance by raising questions over whose data are used, what realities are represented and who controls these systems. It flags that as AI use increases, so does the risk to countries' sovereignty over their data ecosystems. Consequently, the report argues that AI adoption must reinforce the values underpinning official statistics i.e. professional independence, transparency, methodological rigour, accountability and protection of confidentiality.
6. The final four years as a decisive window for achieving the 2030 Agenda
With only four years left to achieve the 2030 Agenda, the coming years stand as a decisive period in determining whether the SDGs remain achievable. The report emphasises that the SDGs remain the "most effective blueprint" for peace, prosperity and sustainability, and argues that they must return to the centre of global decision-making. It identifies three priority areas: reforming the international financial architecture, debt relief, and increasing access to affordable finance. The report also calls for immediate implementation of the Sevilla Commitment on development financing and the Medellín Framework for strengthening data systems to ensure that vulnerable communities remain the primary focus. Finally, it adopts an optimistic outlook, with the evidence presented affirming that the SDGs remain achievable given political will, adequate investment and collective action.
CW Newsmakers This Week
The Saudi Arabia-Houthi flare-ups in Yemen:
Reviving old wounds and the risk of renewed conflict
Brighty Ann Sarah
On 13 July, Reuters reported that a sharp military escalation broke the roughly four-year truce between Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia, marking the first major direct confrontation in years. The flare-up began with airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport in Northern Yemen. Yemen’s internationally recognized government, which derives strong support from the Saudi-backed coalition, claimed responsibility for the attacks. They stated that the strikes were meant to prevent the landing of the Houthi delegation returning after the funeral of Iran's late Ayatollah in Sanaa. The Houthis blamed the Saudi-backed coalition, which stated that they were acting at the request of Yemen’s government. In swift retaliation, the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Abha International Airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree described the assault on Abha as a direct response to the "criminal Saudi aggression." The BBC stated that Saudi air defenses successfully intercepted the incoming projectiles, preventing major damage. The exchange has broken a de facto truce that had largely held since March 2022.
Yemen has endured over a decade of civil war and proxy conflict since the Houthis seized Sanaa and forced the recognized government southward. The current phase began in 2014-2015 amid Yemen's political instability following the 2011 Arab Spring uprising, which ousted longtime president Saleh. The Houthis, a Zaydi Shia movement from northern Yemen, seized the capital Sanaa in late 2014, allied temporarily with Saleh, and forced President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi to flee. In 2015, at Hadi's request, Riyadh formed and led a military coalition including the UAE and other Arab states to intervene. The stated goals were to restore Hadi's government and prevent increased Iranian influence in the region. The Saudi-led coalition launched Operation Decisive Storm in 2015, marked by intense airstrikes, a naval blockade, and later ground support. However, the campaign culminated in one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with widespread civilian casualties, famine risks, cholera outbreaks, and infrastructure destruction.
The Houthis, bolstered by Iranian support, launched severe attacks on Saudi territory, while internal coalition fractures emerged, notably between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as Abu Dhabi extended its support to Yemeni factions, including southern separatists. Saudi Arabia faced mounting international criticism, economic costs, and domestic pressure to exit from Yemen. In 2022, under UN and Omani mediation, Riyadh shifted toward de-escalation. A nationwide truce was announced in April 2022. The fragile truce has largely held in terms of direct Saudi-Houthi clashes. However, it remained precarious due to unresolved core issues including power-sharing, Houthi disarmament, economic reconstruction and the status of the internationally recognized government. The current resumption of strikes threatens the revival of the long-drawn conflict, plunging the region in yet another military escalation.
("Houthis fire missiles at Saudi Arabia, breaking years of calm," Reuters, 13 July 2026; "Yemen's Houthis launch missiles at Saudi Arabia after strikes on Sanaa airport," BBC, 13 July 2026; "Conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea," Council of Foreign Relations, 14 April 2026; "A Timeline of the Yemen Crisis, from the 1990s to the Present," Arab Centre Washington DC, 19 February 2021")
CW Newsmakers This Week
Wildfires in Canada:
800 plus fires across the country with indigenous communities facing the heat
Preetha Renganarayanan
On 16 July, Reuters reported that smoke from hundreds of wildfires across Canada spread over large parts of the US Midwest and Northeast, with health advisories urging residents to remain indoors and avoid exposure to hazardous air. As per officials, there are over 858 active wildfires across Canada including 111 classified as out of control, and mostly concentrated in the central provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Ontario. Around 5.9 million acres (2.4 million hectares) have already burned this season, surpassing the area affected in Canada at the same time last year. Emily Fisher, an atmospheric chemist and professor at Colorado State University stated that “This is a direct connection to climate change.”
The fires have intensified over the past three weeks with Ontario requesting federal assistance on 16 July to evacuate residents from remote northern communities. "The wildfire situation has escalated significantly over the last three weeks across the country, and particularly in Northwestern Ontario," stated PM Mark Carney. "Thousands of people have been forced to evacuate their communities, not knowing if their homes will survive,” he added. As per reports from Reuters, the wildfires have disproportionately affected remote Indigenous communities. According to Indigenous Services Canada, nearly 1,600 people from First Nations communities had been evacuated by 15 July.
Recently, IQAir stated that Detroit along the US-Canada border recorded the world's worst air quality with a pollution index of 600 which is twice the level classified as "hazardous" by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Further, federal data showed dangerous smoke levels across the US states of Minnesota, Michigan, northern Illinois, northern Ohio and Ontario in Canada, with hazardous readings in major cities including Minneapolis, Milwaukee and Toronto.
Climate experts have stated that rising global temperatures are increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally. Given that wildfire smoke can remain airborne for weeks and travel thousands of miles, it is more toxic than normal air pollution. Studies also show a link between wildfire smoke and increased risks of heart attacks, strokes, cancer, pregnancy complications and weakened immune defenses, highlighting the growing human and public health consequences of climate-driven wildfires.
(“Canada wildfire smoke blankets US Midwest, Northeast with hazardous air,” Reuters, 16 July 2026; “Ontario seeks federal support for evacuations as wildfires devastate remote Canadian towns,” Reuters, 16 July 2026)
CW Newsmakers This Week
The International Criminal Court:
Under the US campaign to dismantle it
Priyanka Makhijani
On 13 July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a sweeping campaign to dismantle the alleged threat posed by the International Criminal Court to US sovereignty, involving a whole-of-government response to systematically disable the court's operations In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, as reported by CNN, Rubio put it bluntly: 'Using all the tools at our government's disposal, working beside every ally with whom we can make common cause, we will dismantle the ICC - brick by brick, if necessary.’
As per CNN, Rubio accused the ICC of waging a war against America through 'the force of so-called international law.’ The State Department argues the court poses an intolerable threat to US sovereignty by claiming authority to prosecute and imprison American servicemen and officials acting on behalf of US national interests. As per Time report, Tension escalated sharply after the ICC prosecutor opened an investigation into possible Israeli war crimes in Gaza, and the court issued arrest warrants for PM Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024. Legal experts have pushed back against this framing, arguing that the ICC does not claim jurisdiction over US conduct, and that Rubio was using 'sovereignty' to shield Americans from accountability while ignoring other nations' right to invoke the court for crimes on their own territory.
The campaign includes diplomatic calls urging non-member nations to take similar action, visa revocations and travel bans for ICC personnel, and increased sanctions against the court and affiliated organisations. Sanctions have already been imposed on ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan and several judges, later expanded to include UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese and three Palestinian human rights groups. A former US sanctions official suggested Washington may eventually sanction the tribunal as a whole, framing it as a pre-emptive step against future ICC action, potentially involving Venezuela.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is a permanent international tribunal headquartered in the Hague, Netherlands. It was established by the Rome Statute, which was adopted in 1998 and entered into force in 2002. It prosecutes individuals rather than states, for serious international crimes such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It acts as a court of last resort when national courts are unwilling or unable to prosecute. It has 120+ member states (excluding the US, China, and India). Cases can be referred to the court by member states, the UNSC, or initiated by the ICC's own Prosecutor. It issues arrest warrants, but it has no police force of its own and relies on member states to make arrests.
("State Department Launches Campaign to Dismantle International Criminal Court's Threat to American Sovereignty," US Department of State, 13 July 2026; "Trump Administration Vows to Dismantle the International Criminal Court," Time, 14 July 2026; "Rubio Vows to 'Dismantle' International Criminal Court," CNN, 13 July 2026; "Marco Rubio Launches Campaign to Dismantle International Criminal Court," The Guardian, 14 July 2026)
CW Newsmakers This Week
Typhoon Bavi:
The havoc across the Pacific and East Asia
Acsah H
On 14 July, Reuters reported that Super Typhoon Bavi, a powerful Category 5 storm, slammed the US Pacific Islands and the Northern Mariana Islands. Packing winds of up to 180 mph, the storm caused widespread destruction, evacuations, and severe flooding across the Pacific and East Asia. According to NASA, Bavi was the second super typhoon of the 2026 Pacific typhoon season, having formed as a minor tropical disturbance on 25 June east-southeast of Kwajalein between Micronesia and the Marshall Islands.
On 06 July, Reuters reported that Bavi struck Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, damaging infrastructure but causing no casualties. It was the second major typhoon to hit the Marianas this season after Typhoon Sinlaku in April. On 11 July, Bavi made landfall in China's Zhejiang province before weakening into a tropical storm. As it moved inland, the primary threat shifted from destructive winds to heavy rainfall and widespread flooding across eastern and northern China.
The typhoon impacted China, the Philippines, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Taiwan, and parts of Japan. On 10 July, Al Jazeera reported that although Bavi (locally known as Typhoon Inday) did not make landfall in the Philippines, it intensified monsoon rains, triggering landslides that killed at least 15 people in Sarangani and Lanao del Sur. The Philippine weather agency, PAGASA, issued flood alerts extending to Manila. On 12 July, Focus Taiwan reported that Taiwan closed schools and offices, evacuated more than 14,000 people, and recorded 135 injuries. On 10 July, the South China Morning Post reported that heavy rainfall disrupted flights in Japan and caused power outages in Okinawa. On 13 July, Xinhua reported that China raised its flood alert to yellow, evacuated nearly 2.7 million people, suspended schools and construction across several provinces, and cancelled hundreds of flights and more than 1,600 train services. The scale of evacuations and emergency measures reflected one of China's largest disaster responses this typhoon season.
(“Super Typhoon Bavi,” NASA, 14 July 2026; ‘Typhoon Bavi weakens to tropical storm as it slams into eastern China,” Al Jazeera, 12 July 2026; “Typhoon Bavi makes landfall in eastern China's Taizhou after nearly 2 million evacuated,” Reuters, 11 July 2026; “More than 260,000 evacuated as Typhoon Bavi brings severe floods,” Reuters, 14 July 2026; “Typhoon Bavi batters eastern China, threatens days of heavy rain,” Reuters, 12 July 2026; “Philippines landslides kill 15 as Typhoon Bavi threatens region,” Al Jazeera, 10 July 2026; “Super Typhoon Bavi strikes US Pacific islands with pummeling winds,” BBC, 06 July 2026; “Typhoon Bavi leaves at least 135 injured; barrier lake alert lowered,” Focus Taiwan, 12 July 2026)