Conflict Weekly

CWA # 727
Conflict Weekly
​​​​​​​UK-Rwanda asylum deal, Mexico's continuing femicides, and Afghanistan's sectarian violence

IPRI Team
27 April 2022
Photo Source: BBC

Conflict Weekly #121, 27 April 2022, Vol.3, No.4
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and KAS-India Office

Apoorva Sudhakar, Sejal Sharma, and Abigail Miriam Fernandez

UK-Rwanda: Agreement to relocate asylum seekers sparks criticism

In the news

On 22 April, Rwanda's president Paul Kagame defended the latest agreement with the UK to relocate asylum seekers to Kigali and said his country was not "trading human beings." Kagame said the UK had approached Rwanda because of how the latter handled Libyans after 2018 when he decided that Rwanda would shelter migrants attempting to cross to Europe who got stuck in Libya.

On 24 April, the UK government's legal department said a "refugee pushback" policy framed earlier to push back refugees arriving on dinghies from France through the English Channel had been withdrawn.  

On 20 April, Denmark's immigration minister said they were engaging with Rwanda to frame a process to transfer asylum seekers from Denmark to the latter. The minister said this would "ensure a more dignified approach than the criminal network of human traffickers that characterizes migration across the Mediterranean today."

Issues at large

First, the case of asylum seekers in the UK. The UNHCR estimates that the UK received 63 per cent more asylum applications in 2021, accounting for the highest number of applications in nearly two decades. The UK received 48,450 asylum applications in 2021; Iran, with 9800 applications, was the top nationality applying for asylum in the UK. Other countries included Eritrea, Albania, Iraq and Syria.

Second, profile of the Asylum Partnership Arrangement. Under the latest deal, also known as the Asylum Partnership Agreement, the UK would relocate asylum seekers who arrived in the country irregularly, by boats and trucks, to Rwanda to process the asylum requests. The asylum seekers would receive five years of training, integration, accommodation, and health care in Rwanda. After five years, the asylum seekers may choose to continue living in Rwanda. The UK believes this agreement would ensure the safety of migrants, deter migrants from taking dangerous routes, and tackle people smugglers. The UK has already paid 120 million pounds to Rwanda for a pilot project.

Third, response to the agreement. The UNHCR termed the deal a violation of international law and said it does not come within the "States' responsibility to take care of those in need of protection." The UN said the deal would increase risks as refugees opt for other routes. In Rwanda, the opposition asked the government to address issues which forced Rwandans to flee.

Fourth, the UK's anti-immigration position. The latest plan comes amid the UK government's larger anti-immigrant move. Like the now-withdrawn "refugee pushback" policy, the UK had also framed the nationality and borders bill. The UK Home Secretary had claimed the bill would ensure a safe and legal route for asylum seekers arriving in the UK; later, the Home Office reportedly admitted that the bill does not provide for any government-backed route.

In perspective

First, the UK's plan to relocate asylum seekers to Rwanda is ambiguous on various fronts, including what would happen to those whose asylum requests are rejected by Rwanda. Further, several questions have been raised regarding the state of human rights in Rwanda. In 2021, the UK also expressed concerns over Rwanda's alleged inaction against reports of curbs on civil and media freedom, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances.

Second, in 2021, Denmark passed legislation to achieve its zero-refugee goal. Therefore, the UK's deal with Rwanda would act as an example to other countries like Denmark to pursue relocating asylum seekers to third countries.

Third, prior to the UK, Australia and Israel had adopted similar policies. The EU, too, signed a deal with Turkey wherein the latter would host asylum seekers who arrived in the EU countries. However, the results have varied and have not proved that relocation policies necessarily deter asylum seekers.

Mexico: Protests over continuing femicides 

In the news

On 22 April, the body of an 18-year-old girl, Debanhi Escobar, was found submerged in a cistern outside a motel in the northern territory of Nuevo Leon. Debanhi had been reported missing since 9 April, when she did not return home after a party. The corpse was found by employees at the motel despite massive police searches in and around the area consistently for two weeks. The incident is the latest in a series of disappearances of women and girls followed by death. Bodies of five other girls who were reported missing were found during the past four months while searching for Escobar.  

On 22 April, in a morning press conference, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said: "I want to send a hug and my condolences to the young woman's family," Obrador added. "These sad things are happening everywhere, in almost every state…Although it is up to the state government, which is already dealing with it, we are expressing our desire that what happened be clarified and without bringing forward trials, to assist in the investigation if requested by the government of Nuevo León."

On 24 April, hundreds of women took to the streets demanding justice for the latest victims of Mexico's endemic gender violence. The protestors blocked a highway in Monterrey and demanded the resignation of the state secretary of Security Aldo Fasci. Debanhi's disappearance followed a series of incidents in Nuevo Leon where more than 52 women have disappeared this year, with 20 women disappearing this month alone. General attorney Gustavo Adolfo Guerrero, in a video conference, said: "Scientific proof allowed us to learn that Debanhi Susana Escobar's cause of death was a deep concussion to her head, and we will not discard any line of investigation." Subsequently, an investigation was being conducted for a homicide.

Issues at large

First, the intensity of the problem. Statistics estimate that ten women are murdered every day in Mexico. Even though the country saw a 3.6 per cent fall in its notoriously high homicide rates, last year, femicides rose by 2.7 per cent. The staggering numbers of femicide preceded by disappearances shed light on the broader crisis of gender violence in the country. According to Federal Crime Statistics, nearly 25,000 women are missing, while 155 femicides have been reported in the first two months of this year. In 2021, the number of femicides registered stood at 1,004 – more than a 145 per cent increase since 2015, when the country first started collecting data.

Second, the failure of legislation. The most glaring issue in Mexico regarding gender violence is the ambiguity surrounding the laws defining femicide. Only 13 out of the 32 states have criminalized femicide, addition to which the procedure for prosecuting the crime varies greatly across states. Consequently, perpetrators cannot be charged with femicide, and without its criminalization, the cases are seldom charged even with homicide. The investigations are often inconsistent, delayed and negligent, with authorities losing evidence and all lines of inquiry not investigated. Mexico lacks a comprehensive institutionalized policy for safeguarding women against these crimes and overlooks the gendered perspective implied while executing the crime.

Third, the culture of impunity and machismo. Gender roles and dynamics in Mexico follow a patriarchal structure which often contributes to violence against women. The mischaracterization of violence is rampant on account of sexist societal attitudes. In effect, 93 per cent of crimes go unreported or are not investigated as femicides and end up being unaccounted for years. Authorities often stigmatize women for the violence they undergo, adding to systemic impunity and underreporting of cases. Thus, for women with no institutional support or political sway, investigation and prosecution of crimes follow a grim trend.

Fourth, links between femicide and organized crime. The number of women being murdered in Mexico has risen sharply over the last decade amid the country's war on drugs. According to the National Map of Femicides in Mexico, 63 per cent of the 405 cases it tracked were linked with organized crime. Border states like Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, and Morelos, with a heavy presence of organized crime gangs and military, have registered the country's highest femicide rates. In recent times, cartels have increasingly used women as "weapons of war" by sending messages to rival gangs or the authorities. Victims who have links to organized crimes are often not registered by the State, a similar trend in accounting for migrant women. As migration increases in Mexico as people try to escape the violence, statistics estimate that six out of every ten women migrating may be a victim of sexual assault or violence leading to death.

In perspective

First a feminist approach in a disenfranchised state. In 2020, Mexico became the first Latin American and global south country to implement a Feminist Foreign Policy (FFP). However, the drastic surge in the persistent gender violence in the country speaks of a tokenistic representation of women on the international level. The FFP promises intersectional feminism and gender equality in politics; however, the domestic politics of the Obrador government contradict this stance. As emergency calls for violence increased during the pandemic, Obrador introduced budget cuts to women's shelters and the federal women's institute. Additionally, the president proposed withdrawing state funding for women's shelters operated by NGOs, further suggesting that women fleeing violence could be given cash payments instead. With the federal government constantly undermining women's rights and well-being, the goal of gender equality in Mexico seems like a long way to go.

Second, response to women's movements. The persistence of femicides across Mexico despite greater visibility and social condemnation through campaigns such as "Ni Una Mas" or the glitter revolution signal a catastrophic failure of governmental and societal institutions. The government's perceived indifference towards the matter and failure to address gender-based violence are reflected in the lack of access to justice for women at the local and federal levels. Furthermore, president Obrador has repeatedly clashed with the feminist movements, viewing them as political threats from his conservative rivals.

Afghanistan: The rise of sectarian violence

In the news

On 21 April, a bomb blast inside a Shiite Mosque in northern Mazar-e-Sharif killed over 30 people and injured several. Following the attack, the Islamic State terror group's Afghan affiliate, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), claimed responsibility for the attack stating that it was part of an ongoing global campaign to "avenge" the deaths of its former leader and spokesman.

On 22 April, another bomb exploded at a Sunni Mosque in northern Kunduz province, killing 33 people and wounding dozens of others, while a mine was detonated near a market in Kabul. However, no group claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Following the attacks, Taliban officials announced the arrest of a local Islamic State leader who claimed was the "mastermind" of that attack. Meanwhile, the Taliban's deputy culture and information minister called the perpetrators of the Kunduz attack "seditionists and evil elements."

Previously, on 19 April, a roadside bomb exploded near a school in Kabul, killing six and injuring several in the predominantly Shia and Hazara neighbourhood of Dasht-e-Barchi. Another bomb blast in Kunduz injured 11 mechanics who worked for the Taliban government. However, no group claimed responsibility for these attacks.

Issues at large

First, the resurgence of violence. The recent spate of violence in Afghanistan comes after months of relative calm. Until this week's violence, Afghanistan has not witnessed any large-scale attacks, with both resistance groups and terrorist groups being inactive. This is likely due to winter being over and spring traditionally being the fighting season. However, the resurgence of violence raises fears that these groups are back in action and that the Taliban will be unable to maintain the peace.

Second, the threat of the Islamic State. The ISKP was relatively inactive in Afghanistan for the last five months; however, the recent surge in attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan targeting Shiite Muslim communities highlights the threat the group still poses. However, the resurgence of the ISKP stems from its possible goal of establishing a branch of the ISIS caliphate in Afghanistan by capitalizing on ethnic-religious divisions to consolidate its authority.

Third, the sectarian character of the attacks. Afghanistan has traditionally not suffered from sectarian violence, unlike Iraq or Syria; however, attacks on Shia minorities in recent years have caused resentment within the community, especially among the Hazaras. This nature of the violence reveals that the cloud of sectarianism still looms over Afghanistan.

Fourth, the Taliban's struggle to counter terrorist activities. Since coming to power, the Taliban government has carried out several crackdowns on ISKP and other terrorist groups operating in the region. However, their efforts have not been able to combat the activities of such groups as most of them continue to operate from their traditional bases.

In perspective 

First, the Islamic State's fight for legitimacy. The recent attacks reveal that the group is seeking to establish a space for itself in Afghanistan. Given the deep-rooted differences between the Taliban and Islamic State, their fight for legitimacy snowballing into a fight between the two groups would not be favourable given the current Afghan crisis.

Second, the continuation of sectarian violence and spillover. The recent attacks reveal that ISKP would continue terrorizing the minority communities and look for a way to destabilize the Taliban rule. The targeting of the Shia minority is likely to continue. Additionally, the threat of violence has already moved beyond Afghanistan into several parts of Pakistan. The spillover of violence is expected to spread, and most groups across the border and in Afghanistan carry out attacks.

Third, the Taliban's inability to control. The Taliban has failed to curb the threat of terrorism in Afghanistan. This week's attacks indicate that the Taliban does not have much control over the security situation in Afghanistan. Although the Taliban has several issues to deal with, it is clear that they do not have the capacity, ability and resources to curb the threat of terrorism. Additionally, it is unclear what the Taliban's strategy is when tackling terrorism. In most instances, the Taliban is still accused of supporting many terrorist groups that operate in the country.

Also from around the World

By Padmashree Anandhan, Lavanya Ravi, Sruthi Sadhasivam

East and Southeast Asia

China: Zhang Jun urges control measures in Jerusalem
On 25 April, China's representative to the UN, Zhang Jun, in the UNSC meeting, asked both Israel and Palestinian to take up control measures to avoid further escalation. The demand comes post the clash between the police authorities in the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. China condemned the attacks on the civilians and the actions which violated the historical value of the religious site. According to Jun: "Peaceful coexistence can only be achieved by upholding the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security." Apart from this, he also urged Israel to evacuate Palestinians from the West Bank and to stop the expansion activities.  

China: Xi pledges to support boosting the human health on Malaria day
On 25 April, China's President Xi Jinping, on the occasion of the 50th Anniversary of the Discovery of Artemisinin and on Building a Global Community of Health, briefed on the cure for Malaria and pledged to contribute toward the health of humanity. On artemisinin, which is observed to be the latest cure for malaria, Xi remarked that the cure was first found by China and has been successful in eradicating the disease. He said: "Millions of lives around the world, especially in developing countries, have thus been saved. This is an important contribution to the global campaign against malaria and to the protection of human health."

Malaysia: State of Rohingya refugees worsen due to non-recognition
On 27 April, Malaysia announced the search for six Rohingya asylum seekers who were found to have escaped in the previous week's breakout from the detention centre. According to the UNHCR, close to 100,000 Rohingyas in Malaysia have been registered under the UNHCR, and they are believed to be living under poor conditions, no access to jobs legally. The issue comes due to the non-recognition of refugees by Malaysia's government. According to the home minister: "We cannot allow them to easily enter the country without documents and immediately get UNHCR cards. It's not right. That's why we take a firm stance: even being a UNHCR card holder doesn't mean they can live in our country." Till now, the Rohingya refugees who have fled have been able to "live and raise their families" using the UN cards.

South Asia

Sri Lanka: IMF pledges to assist in economic recovery
On 24 April, IMF expressed its support in attenuating the financial crisis in Sri Lanka and called the latest engagement with the country's finance minister Ali Sabry led delegation fruitful. The statement by IMF said: "Going forward, the IMF team will support Sri Lanka's efforts to overcome the current economic crisis by working closely with the authorities on their economic programme, and by engaging with all other stakeholders in support of a timely resolution of the crisis." The crisis was fuelled by the country's lack of foreign currency, indicating difficulties in procuring food and fuel, causing critical shortages and rising prices. Sri Lanka requires close to USD four billion to recover from the economic downfall. Similar to the talks with IMF, the finance minister has also held talks with China, Japan and the World Bank for financial support.

Sri Lanka: SJB launches six-day protest march 
On 26 April, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), the country's opposition party led by Sajith Premadasa, commenced a protest march, 'Samagi Bala Walk' from Kandy to Colombo against the economic crisis. The protests attracted participation from trade union representatives, public servants, farmers, fishermen, and civil society representatives. Premadasa claimed that the objective of the protest march was to fulfil the aspirations of the people. Further, the party has declared that the government was left with a week to resign as 120 parliamentarians favour the no-confidence motion. 

India: Government extends ceasefire agreement with Naga groups for a year
On 26 April, the Indian government extended a ceasefire agreement with three Naga groups, including the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-NK (NSCN-NK), the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Reformation (NSCN-R) and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-K-Khango (NSCN-K-Khango) for one year. A statement from the Ministry of Home Affairs said: "It was decided to extend the ceasefire agreements for a further period of one year with effect from 28 April, 2022 to 27 April, 2023 with NSCN-NK and NSCN-R, and from 18 April, 2022 to 17 April, 2023 with NSCN-K-Khango." The development comes from the meeting between the NSCN-IM leaders, led by general secretary Muivah and the centre's representative for Naga peace talks, AK Mishra. Earlier, Nagaland chief minister Neiphiu Rio met prime minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah in Delhi to discuss the Naga peace accord. 

Nepal: Wildfires threaten human life and property 
On 24 April, Nepal recorded 103 forest fire incidents in the western part of the country. While the health and environmental consequences of the wildfires are yet to be assessed, the wildfires wrecked property costing INR two billion. Dry conditions triggered forest fires in the region. Meteorological Forecasting Division, meteorologist Hira Bhattarai said: "There is no possibility of rainfall in the next three days." Wildfires which occur during the last week of April is due to lack of rainfall and rising wildfire scenarios which intensify the pollution. The problem is attributed to absence of policies and administrative mechanisms to address wildfires issues. 

Central Asia, Middle East, and Africa

Syria: Deadly air raids kill nine soldiers
On 27 April, air raids near Damascus killed nine soldiers, out of which five were Syrian. A UK based observatory has noted that the four others killed were members of an Iran-backed militia. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has noted that Israel has targeted Iran's military presence by attacking its ammunition depot on the northern frontier. This raid is considered the deadliest in 2022. Israel has not given a statement yet. Israel frequently conducts raids in Syria and justifies the attacks by stating that it was countering Iran's presence in Syria. Israel so far has not acknowledged all of the attacks.

Lebanon: Saudi Arabia and France collaborate on humanitarian projects
On 26 April, Saudi Arabia and France pledged USD 32 million on projects to alleviate Lebanon's financial crisis. This initial contribution is the first in a series, and it will focus on food insecurity, the healthcare system, cash assistance, supporting hospitals and baby formula for families in need. The upcoming projects will focus on education, energy, water and Lebanon's Internal Security Forces. The joint aid mechanism comes as Saudi Arabia tries to rebuild its ties with Lebanon.

Lebanon: Capsized boat claims six lives
On 24 April, a boat off Tripoli's coast capsized, killing six people, including one child. The boat carried 60 people, including Lebanese and Syrians, on board. The army stated that the vessel had left the coast illegally. The boat was caught when naval forces crashed into it, and the smuggler tried to escape. The army saved 47 people, but they are not sure how many were aboard, so many might still be missing. The people on board were fleeing Lebanon's economic crisis in pursuit of making it to Europe.

Israel: Raid in West Bank leaves a young man dead
On 26 April, a 20 year old Palestinian man was killed in the raids on the Aqabet Jaber refugee camp in Jericho, West Bank. Israel's forces conducted a raid on the camp just before dawn. The Fatah movement in Jericho and the Jordan Valley went on strike in retaliation to the killing. In the same week, two other young Palestinians were killed in raids in Palestinian occupied areas of the West Bank. Since the recent Al Aqsa mosque raids, tensions have been on a hike in Jerusalem and West Bank.

Israel: Israel engages in artillery shelling in Lebanon
On 25 April, Israel launched dozens of artillery shells into southern Lebanon. It comes as a response after a rocket was launched by Lebanon across the border. Israel targeted the general area where the rocket came from, and 50 artillery shells were launched into several Lebanese towns near Israel's southern border with Lebanon. No injuries or causalities have been reported by both states so far. The incident follows the Al-Aqsa mosque raids by Israel, and violence in the region is increasing.

Ethiopia: TPLF forces withdraw from Afar
On 25 April, TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda stated that Trigray rebel forces have withdrawn from the region of Afar in Ethiopia. However, the Afar police commissioner said several districts in the region, the presence of rebels is still felt. TPLF forces have withdrawn in hopes of food aid arriving in Tigray upon their removal. The Ethiopian government has not given any statement yet, and it remains unclear if this was a negotiated move with Addis Ababa. The rebel withdrawal is a milestone in the Ethiopian conflict. The pull-out of forces by TPLF follows a ceasefire agreement a month ago where forces agreed to stop the violence as long as sufficient aid was promptly delivered to the region.

Sudan: West Darfur tribal massacre leaves a hundred dead and wounded
On 25 April, deadly attacks between the Arab and Masalit tribes in Kereinik, West Darfur, left 168 people dead and ten people injured. Eyewitnesses claim the joint forces deployed in the region for peacekeeping were responsible for the atrocities and violence in the area. People claim the joint forces withdrew as soon as the violence began. The attack lasted for six hours, claiming the lives of various people, including teachers, police officers, worshippers and children. The death toll is high because the injured were unable to reach the nearest El Geneina Hospital in time. The victims consider the withdrawal of the joint forces an unforgivable crime.

Mali and Burkina Faso: Soldiers and civilians killed in attacks
On 24 April, vehicles parked with explosives were ridden into military camps in central Mali. The attacks took place before dawn and claimed the lives of 15 soldiers and six civilians. The attacks were claimed by Katiba Macina, a group part of an Al-Qaeda linked alliance operating in the Sahel region. The three were hit in a near-simultaneous attack, within 5 minutes of each other. The military stated: "The situation is under control. The FAMa (Malian armed forces) are combing through the target sectors and security measures are being reinforced." UN Mission for Mali has received a request seeking the deployment of a rapid intervention force to the camps.

Horn of Africa: Severe drought causes a crisis for children
The number of kids facing severe drought conditions across the Horn of Africa has expanded by more than 40 per cent over about two months, cautions UNICEF. From February to April, the number of kids facing the effect of dry spells, including hunger, malnutrition and thirst, grew from 7.25 million to 10 million. This climate-induced emergency has increased UNICEF's emergency appeal from 119 USD million to 250 USD million. UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa stated: "We need to act now to save children's lives – but also to protect childhoods. Children are losing their homes, their education and their right to grow up safe from harm. They deserve the world's attention now."

Europe and the Americas

Moldova: Grenade attack push for a Supreme Security Council meeting
On 26 April, Moldova's president, Maia Sandu, held a meeting with the Supreme Security Council to discuss the blasts that occurred in Transnistria. Two explosions were observed to have attacked with "rocket-propelled grenades." Post the fall of the Soviet Union, Transnistria remained independent but has not gained any international recognition. As reported in RIA, Transnistria had found three infiltrators from Ukraine in the recent grenade attack on security headquarters. It named the act a "terrorist act," and observed it as a way to instigate the country to launch a war in the Ukraine conflict. At the same, Sandu said: "internal differences between various groups in Transnistria that have an interest in destabilizing the situation."

The UK: New ban on technological product export to Russia
On 26 April, the UK government announced to remove all the tariffs on all goods and imposed a ban on exports of technological products from Russia. The decision came as a response to Ukraine's President's demand to support the economy. UK's international trade secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan said: "We stand unwaveringly with Ukraine in this ongoing fight and will work to ensure Ukraine survives and thrives as a free and sovereign nation." Apart from the announcement, the UK also announced to close down the loopholes to make sure Russia does buy any commodity from the UK. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on the ground development that the Kreminna city located in Luhansk had fallen and was taken under control by Russia. It also said that Russia was trying to encircle Ukraine's positions in the east and observed that Ukraine's forces were prepared in defence in Zaporizhzhia waiting for Russia's attacks.

Europe: Concerns arise about the use of hate speech on Twitter following Musk's takeover
On 26 April, the UK and EU warned Twitter that it must comply with new content regulations or face penalties ranging from fines to a complete ban. The warnings arise amid fears that hate speech may increase on the network now that Elon Musk owns it. Companies must comply with the upcoming internet safety bill, which compels platforms to safeguard consumers from dangerous information. The law would obligate social media services to allow users to identify unlawful information in a simple and effective method so that it may be quickly deleted. The UK plans to adopt a more robust regulatory system for digital platforms, requiring corporations like Twitter and Facebook to safeguard users from malicious information and issue fines of up to 10 per cent of worldwide revenue for breaches. 

Ukraine: Zelenskyy meet with the US secretary of state focuses on military assistance
On 25 April, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with US secretary of state Antony Blinken and US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin. The meeting focused on military assistance, increasing sanctions on Russia, and financial aid to Ukraine. Zelenskyy highlighted the USD 3.4 billion military aid received from the US till now and also remarked how US has been helpful in boosting the military capabilities of Ukraine. He said: "We understand what the next steps on this track should be. And we count on the support of our partners." Apart from this, "peace process and prospects for strengthening the anti-war coalition," were also discussed.

Russia: Putin highlights humanitarian violations and the impact on sanctions on economy
On 25 April, Russia's President Vladimir Putin highlighted the humanitarian violations carried out by the Ukraine nationalists and mercenaries. He said that such violating acts were discovered during Russia's special military operation. According to Putin: "blatant provocations against Russian Armed Forces, including via foreign mass and social media, require scrupulous investigation as well. It is also necessary to thwart any crimes on the Russian territory in the most decisive way." Apart from this, on the sanctions levied by the US and Europe, he confirmed that the it had impacted Russia's economy vastly reversing the post-cold war scenario. Former Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin, predicted that Russia's GDP will fall by 10 per cent due to sanctions from the West. Putin added: "The Russian economy has every opportunity to work stably and without fail in the new realities."

Finland and Sweden: Conduct joint naval exercise
On 22 April, it was reported that the navies and Finland and Sweden have jointly conducted anti-submarine warfare (ASW) exercise in the Gulf of Finland. This was part of a cross border training exercise in order to improve international interoperability and to train the personnel as well. This might be all the more relevant given how both the countries are contemplating joining NATO. Finland's Commander Toni Joutsia, who led the exercise said: "The exercise is a part of the close cooperation conducted by Finland with Sweden. Participating in international training activities is important, because it demonstrates, maintains and develops our national defence."

Latin America: One in four children found to be not completely vaccinated
On 25 April, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and UNICEF data unveils that the number of children acquiring complete vaccination for diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP3) diseases has fallen from 90 per cent in 2015 to 76 per cent in 2020. UNICEF Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, Jean Gough, said: "Recurrence of disease outbreaks due to poor immunization caused by covid pandemic threatens society." The UNICEF has called on Latin American and Caribbean governments to introduce routine immunization programs. These conduct campaigns would boost vaccine confidence and extend vaccination services to all children, adolescents and vulnerable populations. 

Latin America: IMF encourages fiscal measures to curb inflation
On 26 April, in the Russia-Ukraine war, the IMF urged the government to adopt temporary and targeted fiscal measures to assist the poor amidst soaring food and energy prices. During the war, about 40 per cent of countries adopted tax and import tariff reductions, price caps and social transfers to protect low-income groups from rising prices of essential commodities and safeguard themselves from the threat of social unrest caused by inflation. The rising costs triggered protests in Peru, forcing President Pedro Castillo to introduce a curfew in the region. 

Latin America: Climate catastrophes threaten six million to poverty
On 26 April, the World Bank reported that Latin America and the Caribbean countries lost 1.5 per cent of their GDP due to climate-induced disasters. The report predicts that 5.8 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030. It also said that poverty in Latin America surged to 27.5 per cent in 2021, beyond pre-pandemic levels. Further, it anticipates that sectors such as agriculture will be hit due to low crop yields and energy generation will be undermined due to disruptions in the hydrological cycle. The IPCC report pointed out that Latin America will be highly exposed to climate change with rising heat-related diseases, water and food insecurity. 

Mexico: 6000 foreign migrants detained at the US-Mexico border
On 26 April, National Migration Institute (INM) reported that within four days, out of 6000 migrants that were detained, 5,688 migrants were spotted in trailers or were hidden in bus compartments and truck cabins. During this period, the people largely detained were nationals from Honduras, followed by Cuba and Guatemala. Some migrant groups were noticed traversing through desert and highways to reach the US-Mexico border. Until now, 115,379 migrants have been confined by the Mexican government, indicating the rise in irregular migration trends.

About the authors
Abigail Miriam Fernandez and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Sejal Sharma is a postgraduate scholar at Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. Lavanya Ravi and Sruthi Sadhasivam are postgraduate scholars at Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore.


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Conflicts in the Middle East:
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
TWTW Takeaways
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
TWTW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
Special Commentary
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World(Jan-Mar 2026)
Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regimes Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan