Conflict Weekly 04

CWA # 215
Conflict Weekly 04
Sri Lanka drops Tamil anthem, Assam looks for a new census for the indigenous Muslim population, Bangladesh faces a Rohingya boat tragedy and Israel witnesses resurgence of violence post-Trump deal

IPRI Team
12 February 2020
Photo Source: Al Jazeera

Conflict Weekly, 12 February 2020, Vol.1, No. 4

MJ Unnikrishnan, Vaishali Handique, Sourina Bej & Lakshmi V Menon
 
SOUTH ASIA

Sri Lanka: The President drops Tamil national anthem from independence celebrations
 
In the news 
On 4 February, the Sri Lankan government dropped the constitutionally recognized Tamil national anthem while celebrating the 72nd independence day celebrations. This marked a shift from the previous government’s policy of accommodating the Tamil version of the national anthem in national celebrations and functions. 
 
The President, during his address to the nation on the same day, vowed against discrimination on any basis. “As the President today, I represent the entire Sri Lankan nation irrespective of ethnicity, religion, party affiliation or other differences. I have the vision that I must serve as the leader of the country looking after all citizens rather than serve as a political leader concerned only about a particular community”, Rajapaksa said. He also added, “We will not allow extremist organisations that pave the way for terrorism to further function in the country.”
 
Issues at large
Since 1948, the Tamil version of the national anthem has not been sung till 2016. Even after 2016, the Sinhala authorities were reluctant to allow Tamil version to be sung in schools. Effective bridging of the gap between the Tamil majority northern peninsula and the Lankan mainland has not happened yet, a decade after the end of Eelam war. 
 
‘Sri Lanka Thaaye’, the Tamil translation of Sinhala version ‘Sri Lanka Matha’, was first sung on 2016 aiming to boost ethnic harmony while Maithripala Sirisena was the President. The then opposition leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sirisena’s party opposed the move. Later in November 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the Presidential elections. On his first independence celebration, after he took charge of the office of the President, he removed the Tamil version of the national anthem. 
 
Rajapaksa brothers led the stringent military action in the Tamil dominant regions and defeating Tamil Tigers in 2009. They are now back in power with Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the President and Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister. They have been criticized for their lack of support to the minorities.
 
The decades-old ethnic deadlock in Sri Lanka proves to be a hard nut to crack. “The Tamil anthem is not just another song, but the Sri Lankan identity of Tamil speaking community”, commented an opposition MP Mano Ganesan. 
 
In perspective                                                        
First, the ethnic divisions in Sri Lanka still prevail, and the Easter bomb blasts aggravated the situation causing the religious gaps to widen. This recent action of the state to avoid Tamil national anthem will setback the reconciliation efforts.
 
Second, the Rajapaksas are less likely to address the interests of the Tamil community. The minorities fear an iron fist rule by the state as both the offices of President and Prime Minister are held by the Rajapaksa brothers and see this action as an initiation of that. 
 
Last, Gotabaya, during his election campaign, promised equal consideration and rights for all Sri Lankan citizens but was not able to win the minority votes. With the general elections approaching later this year, the Rajapaksa brothers are likely to showcase right-wing politics to secure a majority.  
 
Bangladesh: 15 dead as an overcrowded boat with 138 Rohingyas capsizes 
In the news
An overcrowded wooden fishing boat carrying about 138 Rohingya refugees from the refugee camps in Bangladesh sank near the Saint Martin’s Island in the Bay of Bengal on 11 February, leaving at least 15 confirmed dead, mostly women. 

According to the Captain Waseem Maqsood, the coastguard commander in the Chittagong division, around 71 people were rescued alive, while more than 40 remain unaccounted
. 
The Bangladesh authorities believe the boat departed from Teknaf, an administrative region of Cox's Bazar, south of Bangladesh on the Myanmar border. Teknaf is the point of entry to Bangladesh, where the influx of Rohingya refugees has taken place in recent years. While most still live in the refugee camps in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, more than few Rohingya refugees have attempted to go overseas.

Issues at large 
The incident on 11 February is the latest in the series of the attempts made by the Rohingya refugees to flee Myanmar by illegal routes in the sea. The exodus peaked in 2015 when an estimated 25,000 people fled across the Andaman Sea for Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia but were stranded and drowned after the respective governments restricted their illegal entry.

The Rohingya refugees are enticed by traffickers to board the boat from various points as they head for Malaysia. They are lured on promises of a better and dignified life, income and survival in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The coast guard thwarted many past attempts to travel illegally by boat, but the Rohingyas have embarked on dangerous seas. The UN International Organisation for Migration has put an estimated 8,000 Rohingyas from Bangladesh and Myanmar to be stranded at sea.

The Thai government in 2015 begun crack down on smugglers who have traditionally taken the Rohingyas to camps in southern Thailand and held them ransom. As a result, the smugglers are now abandoning the Rohingyas at sea. Not only are the countries, but the fishermen are also restricted from helping them with boats. In Indonesia, the Aceh province has sometimes accepted asylum seekers, but they are usually barred from working and often spend years in immigration centres. Another favoured route by the Rohingyas is the Indo-Bangladesh border whereby the Rohingya refugees reach India through road by sneaking at night. 

In perspective 
First, the Rohingyas are unwelcome in the countries of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and India. The Thailand navy has indicated allowing refugee camps on its shores but is turning boats away and does not want permanent settlers. Malaysia is the choice of destination for most Rohingyas because it is predominantly Muslim and short of an unskilled labourer, but it has ordered its navy to repel them. Indonesia has an official stand on not welcoming the Rohingyas, thereby turning away boatloads. India had initially maintained a nonchalant stand on receiving the Rohingyas. However, with a strong message recently, India has detained and often deported the Rohingyas who cross the border illegally. In a situation where the neighbouring countries have repeatedly turned their back on the Rohingyas, the desperate choice of going illegally is most favoured.  

Second, the refugee camps in Bangladesh are overpopulated, dilapidated, water short and little scope for alternate livelihood. With Bangladesh facing the cost of a population upsurge, additional numbers of Rohingya are a burden for the country. Bangladesh has searched for a more permanent and tangible solution to rehabilitate the Rohingya refugees through repatriation. However, it has failed to materialise between Bangladesh and Myanmar. With a regular influx of Rohingyas from the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, Bangladesh is planning to shift the Rohingyas to a sinking island. Left with little choice, the Rohingya refugees are seeking to leave the camps and look for refuge again. 

Last, the first recognition of the condition of the Rohingyas came with the ICJ ruling last month, but a worsening relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar and no political pressure on Myanmar from the neighbourhood leaves no scope for the Rohingyas but to fend for themselves. Bangladesh has taken steps to secure its only border with Myanmar by constructing barbed wires, while India has also secured its borders with Bangladesh. In this, the Rohingyas have sought the sea for survival. 
 

India’s Northeast: The Assam State Government to enumerate “indigenous” Muslim population in a new census
In the news
The Government of Assam is highly perplexed by the National Register of Citizens (NRC) drive. It is likely to survey to distinguish the indigenous Muslim population of the state. A meeting was called on 11 February 2020 by the State Minister Ranjit Kumar Dutta to finalize the proceedings of the survey. The socio-economic census will be a door to door one. It will enumerate the actual numbers of the religious community who is indigenous to the state, namely- Goria, Moria, Deshi and Jola. The government offices responsible for carrying out the survey will be the home, revenue and minorities welfare departments under the Government of Assam.

Issues at large
First, the total Muslim population of the state is at 34 per cent of the 3.1 crores state population out of which only four per cent are indigenous Assamese Muslims. The majority of the Muslims are Bengali-speaking and are immigrants from neighbouring Bangladesh. The last year’s uproar against the Citizenship Amendment Bill turned Act saw even the indigenous Muslim people fight against the possible awarding of citizenship to the minority Hindu populations of some selected countries. They asserted that Assam’s fight against CAA is not at all related to religion but is about the loss of opportunities of the indigenous people. 

Along with the rest of Assam, the indigenous Muslims too protested against the porous nature of the border of India and Bangladesh. They claim that the inclusion of any excess population, be it Hindu or Muslim, will create hindrance to the development of Assam’s own people and in turn create more agitations in the future.

Second, the BJP-led state government has called out the previous government for not being able to secure the livelihood and identity of the indigenous Muslims of the state. They claim that during the previous regime, many Bangladeshi Muslims have changed their names to access government services. This saw more Bangladeshi Muslims in the mainstream sectors and almost ceased the chances of the indigenous Muslim population who unfortunately fall under the “General” category of the reservation system as an addition to their woes.

In perspective
First, many believe that in 13 districts of Assam, today has a strong presence of the Bangladeshi Muslims. The Assam State Assembly has 14 Congress MLAs who are of Bangladeshi origin. This creates an unfair situation for the indigenous Muslims as they lack representation and hence their voices are almost unheard for a long time. 

Second, though the census will try to segregate the indigenous Muslim population, it will drop the word “indigenous.” It can be too sensitive. It will use “Goria, Moria, Deshi and Jolah Tribe Community Development Council” instead to reinforce the development agenda to be implemented for the concerned population and will not in any way fuel a communal uproar.

Third, it would be a good step, if successful, which will uplift the minority “indigenous” Muslims who have suffered greatly because of their awful categorization in the reservation system. All the Muslims in Assam are clubbed into the “general” category which provides them with no reservation benefits despite some of them living in extremely poor conditions.

Fourth, along with the census it should also be tried, by the State Government, to further categorize them according to their economic condition or at least give some relief to the poor Muslims in the education and employment sectors.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Israel: Violence in the post-Trump deal
In the news
As per Palestinian health ministry, on 5 February, Israeli forces killed a 17-year-old Palestinian during clashes in Hebron. On 6 February, two Palestinian lives were taken when Israeli forces opened fire on a demonstration against demolition of a Palestinian house in Jenin; 14 Israelis soldiers in Jerusalem were injured as a car rammed into them; thousands of Palestinians prayed in Al-Aqsa Mosque (Temple Mount for Jews); and a Palestinian citizen of Israel, accused of firing at Israeli forces near the mosque, was shot dead. On 7 February, Israeli forces sent back scores of Palestinians en route to the mosque and additional forces were deployed by Israel in Jerusalem and occupied West Bank. On 8 February a Palestinian teen was shot dead by Israeli forces in Tulkarem, West Bank. 

Issues at large
Israeli-Palestinian violence spiked post US President’s announcement of the contentious Trump-Jared Mideast peace plan on 28 January 2020. While Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed it as “the opportunity of a century”, contrastingly, President of Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas scorned it as “the slap of the century”. Palestinians denounced the plan as one that heavily favoured Israel by paving way for future annexation and called for “the day of rage”.

Reportedly, the plan offers a feasible path to Palestinian statehood, a two-state solution with mutual recognition of “nation-states”; recognizes undivided Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (while upholding that the future Palestinian state’s capital would lie in East Jerusalem); recognizes large majority of Israeli settlements, Golan Heights, Jordan valley as under Israeli sovereignty; recommends a demilitarized Palestine; suggests long term measures to reduce Israel’s security footprint; grants the choice to return, integrate or resettle to Palestinian refugees; and secures a four-year “land freeze” agreement from Israel.

Scores have died since the onset of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The first intifada (1987-1993), second intifada (2000-2005) and third intifada (June, July 2014) spiked the death toll. However, in 2019, Palestinian resistance factions and Israel secured an informal truce leading to easing of crippling Israeli sanctions on Palestinian goods and people. But in November 2019, when Israel killed Islamic Jihad armed group’s leader, tensions re-escalated; killing 36 Palestinians. 

In perspective
Palestinians are being criticized as “nay-sayers” for rejecting Trump’s plan. The plan that proposes a demilitarized Palestine and grants greater security and surveillance authority to Israel will unnerve the Palestinians’ collective memory of trauma. Without addressing Palestinian grievances and concerns, any lasting peace plan is impossible. 
The ununiform responses from the international community and the muted Arab response (despite Arab league rejecting the plan) will also raise threat perceptions and sense of hopelessness amid Palestinians, leading to further clashes at regional, national, political, societal and grass-roots levels. In any violent scenario, Israel will naturally further their surveillance requirements and deepen its security clutches. 

The endurance and spiking of violence do not signal any positive outcome or prolonged peace. Crafting structural violence into a peace plan will not succeed. However, the unprecedented shrinking of protestor turnout for the “day of rage” is noteworthy. It signals to a growing mentality amongst the Palestinians to move on from the historical issue and indicates a yearning for normalcy. 

Simply put, the current spiking of violence is a direct result of intra-Palestinian issues, intra-Israeli matters, Israeli and Palestinian statecraft, respective psychologies, Israel-Arab rapprochement in the absence of a Palestinian state, and US advocacy for Israel.

 

Conflict Weekly is an academic initiative to follow conflicts and peace processes around the world. The Weekly is a part of research at the International Peace Research Initiative (IPRI) at ISSSP in NIAS.


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Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan