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Conflict Weekly
Another ceasefire in Sudan, and a Counteroffensive in Ukraine
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IPRI Team
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Conflict Weekly #174, 4 May 2023, Vol.4, No.18
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and India Office of the KAS
Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandan
Sudan: Continuing fighting and prevailing uncertainties
Anu Maria Joseph
In the news
On 2 May, South Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the warring parties in Sudan have agreed “in principle” to a week-long ceasefire to begin on 4 May.
On 29 April, according to Volker Paerthes, the UN special representative for Sudan, the opposing sides have expressed willingness to negotiate and have chosen their representatives for the upcoming talks. The talks are proposed to be held in either Jeddah, Saudi Arabia or Juba, South Sudan. He stated: “They both think they will win, but they are both sort of more open to negotiations, the word ‘negotiations’ or ‘talks’ was not there in their discourse in the first week or so.” The fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has intensified and has reached a third week with multiple failed ceasefires and worsening humanitarian crises. Sudan’s Health Ministry reported that at least 550 people died and 4,926 were left injured so far in the fighting.
On 1 May, according to the UN estimates, around 800,000 people would eventually leave Sudan, and 100,000 people had fled Sudan to neighbouring countries amid the humanitarian crisis. The UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan, Abou Dieng, expressed concerns saying: “It has been more than two weeks of devastating fighting in Sudan, a conflict that is turning the Sudan humanitarian crisis into a full-blown catastrophe” and that “the regional spillover effect of the crisis is a serious concern.”
Meanwhile, foreign governments are concluding their evacuation operations. On 3 May, the UK announced its final evacuation flight from Sudan after nearly 2,341 people so far had been airlifted to safety on 28 UK flights.
Issues at large
First, intensified fighting between Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The use of heavy weaponry and artillery has intensified the fighting between the warring parties. Airstrikes and gunfire have spread across Khartoum and Omdurman targeting major government and military infrastructure. The
confrontation has also extended to new regions - Al-Jerif in the state of Blue Nile, Darfur, Al-Halfaya, Shambat and North Kafouri. On 28 April, Al Jazeera reported that 74 people were killed in the West Darfur region.
Second, failed ceasefires and ineffective external efforts. The latest week-long ceasefire is the fifth one, after a series of failed attempts. The previous ceasefires have ranged from 24-72 hours. Despite reports of rival factions agreeing to hold talks, both the army and RSF have continued to engage in fighting. Each side has accused the other of violating the previously agreed ceasefires.
Various international actors including the UN, the AU, the US, and the EU have been urging the opposing parties to engage in peaceful discussions. The ceasefire that was brokered by the United States and Saudi Arabia on 25 April failed. The AU and Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) have been calling regional actors for a concerted effort to de-escalate the conflict. On 1 May, during an Arab League emergency meeting in Cairo, Egypt proposed a draft resolution calling for an “immediate and comprehensive cessation” of fighting. Evidently, the current situation indictes a that discussions with external parties have not been effective in addressing Sudan's political issues.
Third, the threat of an ethnic spill over. The leader of RSF, Hamdan Dagalo, is the leader of the Mahariya clan of Darfur’s Rizeigat tribe. Arab tribal militias in Darfur including the remnants of Janjaweed militia, which fought during the 2003 Darfur conflict, pose a potential threat of aiding RSF as their kin in Darfur. It is possible that the Mahamid fighters may form an alliance with the Sudanese Army to undermine their opponent Dagalo in Darfur. Besides, the army and RSF are pushing non-Arabs and Arabs to align with them respectively.
Fourth, threats of regional spill over. The fighting in Sudan poses a threat to regional security. According to Jalel Harchaoui, a Libyan expert with the Clingendael Institute, Arab militias having close ties with Libyan Commander General Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA), are maintaining control of the lucrative smuggling routes that go through the city of Kufra, which borders the Sudanese region of Darfur, Chad, and Egypt. RSF is one of the LNA's major trading partners and is pushing Haftar to support Dagalo. If the RSF gets weakened in Darfur, it could prompt their affiliated militias in Chad, which is susceptible to coup attempts, and the Central African Republic, which is plagued by conflict, to join the conflict. This could result in a spill-over effect in these countries. Sudan also borders the Tigray region in Ethiopia which is vulnerable to potential conflicts. Besides, the influx of Sudanese refugees to the neighbouring countries has left the concern of rising cost of commodities and scarce resources in the respective countries.
Fifth, continuing evacuation. A majority of the countries made use of the temporary
ceasefires to evacuate its citizens residing in Sudan. According to an Al Jazeera report on 25 May, the UK evacuated 4,000 citizens from Sudan; Germany's evacuation mission carried nearly 500 people from more than 30 countries; India transported 3,000 citizens and Russia 140 out of a total of 300 citizens; US special forces evacuated all government personnel and their families which is fewer than 100 people.
In perspective
First, growing instability within and in the regions. As the fighting expands to new regions with the use of heavy weaponry, it is uncertain whether the warring parties would adhere to the agreed week-long ceasefire. The volatile ceasefires are likely to delay further peace talks. Although the parties have agreed to hold talks, the questions - how, when and where are still unclear.
Sudan shares long and porous borders with conflict-riven neighbours, including the Central African Republic, Chad, Libya and South Sudan. While regional ethnic and tribal militias are pushed to take sides, there is a chance that the conflict in Sudan might turn into a proxy conflict profiting from the chaos. It would also lead to the incapability of regional actors and institutions including the IGAD and AU in mediating a solution to the issue.
Second, the conflict has turned the humanitarian crisis into a catastrophe. According to the UN, inaccessibility to basic commodities has left 15 million people already facing food insecurity. East Africa has been facing the worst drought after five consecutive rainy seasons which, according to the UN, has left 43,000 people dead. Existing disease outbreaks and climate related hazards have overlapped with the conflict leaving millions in a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian crisis.
Third, lack of a comprehensive political process. Sudan needs an effective ceasefire followed by an inclusive peace talk supported by regional and international actors. However, the Western countries revert to taking side with the interim government as well as to make efforts to end the fighting. Besides, the hope for democracy and a civilian transition in Sudan seems unlikely to happen any time soon.
Ukraine: Efforts to strengthen counteroffensive and Russia’s counterassault
Padmashree Anandan
In the news
On 29 April, the Ukrainian diplomat to Germany, Oleksii Makeiev, appealed to Germany to deliver air defence systems, tanks, and ammunition to prepare for the counteroffensive. Makeiev said: “For the planned counteroffensive, we need more armoured vehicles, tanks and artillery systems, long-range ammunition in the shortest possible time.”
On 1 May, a spokesperson of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yurii Ihnat, stated that all supplied air defence systems to Ukraine had been deployed for combat duty and to safeguard the airspace. Despite receiving missile systems such as IRIS-T and Patriot, it is reported to be insufficient to guard all directions.
On 1 May, RT reported on Russia’s Ministry of Defence claim on the launch of a massive missile attack across Ukraine targeting the weapon production, military industry, and munitions. Although the details of the locations were not disclosed, the strikes were confirmed by the Ukraine Armed Forces in Kyiv, Sumy, and Dnepropetrovsk. According to a senior Russian official in Zaporozhzhia, the attack had destroyed Ukraine’s “46th airborne brigade” which was expected to be used for a counteroffensive.
On 1 May, in its intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence has reported that Russia is constructing defence structures along the frontline in Ukraine and in certain areas within Russia. This was observed especially in the northern border of Crimea and the village of Medvedivka. Such defences are viewed as an attempt by Russia to counter the upcoming
counteroffensive by Ukraine.
On 2 May, after the attacks on its military production and munitions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for boosting the air defence. He said: “We are working with our partners as actively as possible to make the protection of our skies even more reliable.”
Issues at large
First, Ukraine’s continued demand for advanced weapons and air defence systems. Ukraine’s ground forces continued to counter Russia’s attacks between January and March of this year. Withdrawing from Soledar and experiencing exhaustion in Bakhmut have been pivotal moments for Ukraine, prompting them to request more advanced weapon systems. This initially started with requests for battle tanks, modern aviation and advanced missile systems. The same can be observed from the leaked Pentagon documents that revealed the lack in Ukraine’s air defence and Russia’s air superiority. Ukraine’s objective to overcome the gap and its determination to counter Russia has resulted in demanding offensive weapon systems. Although the pressure helped in a faster delivery of Leopard 2 and Leopard 2A6, advanced air defence systems remain only in the demand list.
Second, Russia’s swift tactics. Due to limitations in skilled personnel and logistics, Russia’s winter offensive was expected to be aggressive, but was observed ineffective. Despite the limitations, it strategically deployed the Wagner Group and its special forces in Bakhmut which has helped it to regroup its military forces to launch an offensive in other areas, including Sloviansk, Kherson, and Murmansk. As Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive is expected to be launched, Russia can be observed to be switching its targeted attacks. Initially, it had focused on residential buildings, water storages, energy infrastructure and lately at military stockpiles, munition and production units.
Third, increased pressure on the West. The US, Germany, and the NATO allies, who have been relentlessly supporting through intelligence, ground, air, and sea weapon systems, have always been wary of the impact. Military aid to Ukraine has always been limited to ensure their defence and prevent further escalation. The demand from Ukraine for advanced ground or air weapon systems has been increasing, causing the West to show restraint in providing them.
In perspective
First, Russia’s shift in target could be to reduce the intensity of the counteroffensive to mellow down the impact on its military. Launching offensives on the brigades prepared ahead of the counteroffensive could be a strategic move to avoid further loss of personnel and prevent aggravated logistical challenges.
Second, for Ukraine, it will be a scuffle between the West and Russia. To carry out the counteroffensive, it will have to strategize its usage of available weapons and ensure the prepared military stocks are not destroyed. Until there is a larger military sanction from the West, Ukraine’s ability to counter Russia will remain uncertain.
SPECIAL COMMENTARY
The State of Conflict in Myanmar:
Violence, Counter-Violence, and the Current Impasse
by Bibhu Prasad Routray
In the last 27 months, Myanmar’s military has defied international strictures and condemnations. While the West is disinterested in undermining the military and actively promoting the pro-democracy activists, the Tatmadaw has found a long leash to life from its friends in the neighbourhood and beyond.
On 22 April, Sai Kyaw Thu, the deputy head of Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) appointed to the Union Election Commission, was shot dead in the Thingangyun township in eastern Yangon by suspected members of the People’s Defence Forces (PDF). The killing is part of the counter-violent campaign unleashed by the pro-democracy activists to undo the February 2021 coup by the military; it should also be seen as sort of a temporary coagulation of their objective—to disrupt the ‘elections’ planned by the military. The military, too, realizes the importance of its planned pursuit, which although criticized heavily by the international community, may legalize its usurpation of power. Oddly, Myanmar, wracked by intense quotidian violence, is in a dead-heat state, and also in a state of fluidity.
The Elections Stratagem
Installing a government that is ‘by, of, and for the military’ at the earliest has been the Tatmadaw’s holy grail. The National League for Democracy (NLD), which secured emphatic victories in the 2015 and 2020 elections, threatened the military’s preeminent position in Myanmar’s body politic. The 2008 Constitution’s provisions, scripted to protect the military’s paramountcy, were constantly challenged by the NLD, which had become immensely popular. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) was no match for the NLD. Hence, the military’s strategy demanded that it not only conduct the elections, swearing by its commitment to the constitution.
The military also wants to deflect the criticism that it is unconstitutionally holding onto power for too long, ensuring the impending elections have a pre-determined winner— the USDP. Thus, the controversial Political Parties Registration Law that required the political parties to re-register themselves with the EC within 60 days was brought in January 2023. The stringent law also required that parties must have a sizable presence all over the country to qualify. The shadow National Unity Government (NUG)/NLD, along with 40 other parties, refused to be part of the process and in April, were dissolved.
The military’s move has justifiably attracted wide criticism, similar to its past and continuing a series of steps to convict Aung San Suu Kyi and a large number of NLD politicians in a plethora of concocted cases, effectively ensuring that they are kept out of the political process. Critics allege that such elections can never be free or fair. The United States urged the international community to reject any “sham election”. However, the military reckons that the installation of a newly elected government will take much wind out of the NUG’s charges against it. The new government will effectively be the face of the military’s policies, legitimizing it, and justifying its actions. This makes the proposed elections not a gamble, but part of the strategy of the military.
The Opposition’s Strategy
Sai Kyaw Thu, deputy director of the EC, was shot multiple times in the chest, neck, and head, and died on the spot. He is one of the high-profile officials who have been killed by the PDFs. The latter are loosely organized armed wings of the NUG, which was set up by the democratically-elected politicians who were removed from office in the military coup. Thu, however is on the long list of officials directly linked to the proposed elections who have been targeted by the PDFs. Officials, enumerators, and pro-military politicians have been attacked. Low-level officials working with the military or alleged informers have also been killed regularly. As a result, a compilation of accurate voter lists has been made impossible, according to the military’s own admission.
Counter-violence by the PDFs has revolved around a set of purposes, either to vent public anger against unpopular decisions made by the military or to paralyse the military administration to force it to rethink the coup that pushed democracy into cold storage. On 24 March 2023, Min Tayza Nyunt Tin, a corporate lawyer accused of helping Myanmar’s military leaders to launder money was shot and killed in the port city of Thanlyin. In April 2022, a deputy governor of Myanmar’s central bank, appointed by the military days after it seized power, was shot at and injured by unknown assailants at her house in Yangon. The incident came after the central bank announced that foreign exchange held by local Myanmarese must be exchanged for the local kyat currency within one working day. In November 2021, a top executive from Mytel—a telecom venture between the Myanmar military and Vietnamese firm Viettel — was gunned down outside his Yangon home. The vehemence of the PDF’s violence, although nowhere close to ensuring a victory for the NUG, may have achieved a limited purpose.
Being Desperate and Brutal
In his New Year’s message and Independence Day address on 4 January 2023, military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing promised to hold an election and transfer power to the winning party. Although the election law does not say how early a date for the polls must be announced, it was expected that the elections, even if a staggered one, would be completed by August 2023. However, there is little possibility of the strategy of the military to hold elections coming to fruition anytime soon. On 1 February 2023, the military rule was extended by another six months. The military-controlled National Defence and Security Council (NDSC) cited the ‘extraordinary situation’ in the country that has hampered efforts to hold the proposed general elections in 2023.
Assessments sympathetic to the pro-democracy activists and the NUG demonstrate that more than half of the country’s territory is now being controlled by the anti-military ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and the PDFs. The military, however, claims that its writ runs large over two-thirds of Myanmar’s territory. This sanguine assessment notwithstanding, accumulated frustration of not being able to control the affairs of the entire country has pushed the military to add more brutality to its campaigns. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turkhas, termed this as a "festering catastrophe." Until 3 May, 3459 people have been killed in the military’s actions since the February 2021 coup, according to the non-governmental group, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. At least 600 air attacks have been carried out by the military between February 2021 and January 2023, according to the conflict-monitoring group, Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).
On 27 March, during a speech to mark Armed Forces Day in the capital Naypyidaw, Min Aung disclosed the military would take "decisive action" against “the terror acts of the NUG and its lackey so-called PDFs”. Two weeks later, on 11 April, more than 100 people were killed and dozens more wounded in air strikes on Pa Zi Gyi village in the Kantbalu township of the larger Sagaing region. The village had been a hotspot for PDF activities for the past several months. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the attack. Other major attacks in March 2023 include the killing of 28 people in a monastery in southern Shan state and the raping, beheading, and killing of at least 17 people in two villages in the Sagaing region.
While the larger punitive air raids and artillery attacks have attracted international condemnation, many killings of anti-military activists have been carried out by pro-military militia groups—the Thway Thout Ah-Pwe, or “Blood Comrades''—comprising former military personnel, pro-military civilians, soldiers, and police personnel. These groups were formed after an April 2022 announcement by the military.
Sanctions Galore, Diplomacy on a Vacation
Major Western powers continue to impose sanctions on the military’s officials. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, is peeved with Min Hlaing’s repeated failure to honour his promises of restoring democracy. Assessments point to the choking impact of the sanctions on the military’s resources and capacities. And yet, brutality and a sense of impunity of the military continue to persist, buoyed by concrete military assistance and secret assurances by a host of countries including China and Russia.
On 2 May, Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang made a rare trip to Naypyidaw during which he demanded that the international community should respect Myanmar's sovereignty and play a constructive role in helping it achieve peace and reconciliation. The Russian Foreign Minister had made a similar visit in August 2022. In March 2023, UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews drew parallels between the Ukraine war and Russian arms supply to Myanmar which kills civilians. India too is reportedly assisting the military’s officials to conduct the elections, by training them and providing them with electronic voting machines.
In the last 27 months, Myanmar’s military has defied international strictures and condemnations. While the West is disinterested in undermining the military and actively promoting the pro-democracy activists, the Tatmadaw has found a long leash to life from its friends in the neighbourhood and beyond. Hence, a little break is expected from the cycle of violence and counter-violence in the coming months. What is worse, the whim to hold the elections at any cost may make the Tatmadaw’s stabilization project more brutal than ever before.
IPRI REVIEW
Droughts in East Africa: A climate disaster
Three Takeaways
By Akriti Sharma
The recent droughts in East Africa are the worst in the last four decades. Scientists suggest that such exceptional droughts would not have occurred without climate change. Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are witnessing inter-community conflicts, displacement, hunger, and malnutrition due to the continuing droughts. With multiple crises at the fore, the countries have limited capacities to manage such disasters and need assistance from regional and global actors.
On 27 April, The Washington Post published an article “Climate change caused catastrophic East Africa drought, scientists say” which looked at the causes and impacts of the East African droughts. The article is based on a study conducted by World Weather Attribution (WWA) titled “Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Horn of Africa” which highlights the key scientific findings of the persisting droughts in the region and its major fallouts. According to the report, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia have been witnessing extreme drought conditions for the past three years. The following article looks at some of the key takeaways of the report.
1. The climate change link
Droughts in East Africa are caused by extreme weather conditions coupled with less rain and extremely hot and dry temperatures making them the worst droughts in the last four decades. Southern parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and eastern Kenya have received below-average rainfall in the last three years. Such a weather anomaly is a one-in-a-ten-year event. Scientists believe that such a drought would have not occurred without climate change. Erratic rainfall patterns have been persistent in Africa with longer and denser rains in the western parts and severe drought conditions in the East. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report forecasted an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events of similar conditions. Extreme weather events of such a magnanimous scale are caused by human-induced climate change.
Prolonged drought conditions have had multifaceted fallouts and have aggravated the existing vulnerability of the population in the East African region. It has led to increased hunger, crop failures, migration, deaths, and conflict in the region. The population in the region is highly vulnerable to an already existing nexus of issues such as poverty, inequality, hunger, malnutrition, disease, and conflict. Climate change has pushed the population to face severe food and water shortage, pasture degradation, and livestock losses. Farming is the major activity that sustains the population of the region and with droughts, people have lost their major sources of livelihood. In Kenya, after the declaration of a drought emergency in 2021, vulnerable groups such as lactating women, children, and older populations were exposed to malnutrition and needed humanitarian assistance. In Ethiopia and Somalia, 1.2 billion people have migrated across borders due to droughts which led to a mass dropout of children in schools. Resource scarcity has led to various inter-community conflicts and disease outbreaks. This reflects the capacity of climate change to exacerbate persisting vulnerabilities.
2. Delayed response followed by fragmented disaster response and management
The impacts of the droughts can be managed through early warning systems and management; however, the response has varied in all three countries. Kenya has been proactive in disaster management through the National Drought Management Authority engaged in developing coping strategies and policy coordination among the institutions for early warning and response. Somalia’s response seems highly fragmented due to chronic humanitarian conditions and limited institutional capacity. The African Union has aided both countries through Africa Risk Capacity. Ethiopia, embroiled in political conflict, had little room for disaster response. However, with years of droughts, communities have developed household-coping strategies to manage the droughts which is necessary but inadequate to manage such an exceptional drought. In 2020, the drought was already forecasted by various weather agencies due to La Nina projections but a delayed response was also predicted. Kenya declared drought a national emergency only a year later calling out for humanitarian assistance. Management of disasters requires not only an early warning but an early response.
3. Relevance of loss and damage
The continuing drought in the East African region is a classic example of “loss and damage” financing which is the third pillar of climate action after mitigation and adaptation. With inadequate global action to curb emissions, such events are forecasted to increase and require collective mechanisms to be dealt with. The aftermath of extreme weather events is beyond the gamut of mitigation and adaptation and restoration of pre-disaster conditions requires financial assistance. At COP 27, the concept of loss and damage fund was introduced as a major step towards compensating the vulnerable communities which face drastic impacts of climate change due to the global increase in emissions and hence it is a collective responsibility to compensate them for the damage caused. However, UNFCCC is yet to establish a Loss and Damage Fund which was agreed to at COP27 in Egypt. The population in the region is in dire need of funds to cope with the drought and sustain their livelihoods.
Conclusion
Droughts in East Africa reflect how climate change is manifesting and exposing vulnerable regions of the world to extreme conditions which are beyond adaptive capacity and mitigation measures. Even while pursuing global climate action, such weather anomalies will continue to rise and push vulnerable populations to face the consequences without having any historical responsibility for causing climate change. Apart from a scientific study, it also highlights how such weather anomalies can further socioeconomic vulnerabilities including poverty and conflict.
The report also points out limited climate finance as one of the barriers to undertaking coping strategies. Developed countries have been lagging in their climate financing commitments. East African droughts can push the “loss and damage” debate in the global climate forums in favour of vulnerable communities across the globe. Droughts in East Africa are a global climate concern and demand international and regional support to address acute food, water, and energy insecurity. Climate change is pushing vulnerabilities in communities and regions. Countries with limited resources, especially the least developed and developing countries, do not have the capacity to manage such extreme weather events and they require attention and assistance from the international community. Additionally, against the backdrop of the post-pandemic recovery, global inflation and a rise in food and energy prices, the drought response of the governments in the region has been affected. The UN and the African Union can help bring the droughts in East Africa to international attention through global climate summits.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Akriti Sharma, Ankit Singh, Rashmi Ramesh, Apoorva Sudhakar, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Harini Madhusudan and Padmashree Anandhan
East and Southeast Asia
Japan: Finance minister meets South Korean counterpart to discuss regional tensions
On 1 May, Israeli air strikes targeted the Aleppo international airport in the northern part of Syria, killing one soldier and wounding five other soldiers and two civilians. The strikes have rendered the airport out of service, affecting aid flow to the conflict-ridden zones of the country. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that Israel targeted a munitions depot at the airport, alongside striking a military airport in Aleppo's countryside. However, the latter was not reported by the mainstream media.
South Asia
World Press Freedom Index
On 3 May, Reporters Without Borders released the “2023 World Press Freedom Index.” India is ranked 161 out of 180 countries. In 2022, it was ranked 150. China is ranked 179, Pakistan at 150, Nepal at 95, Bangladesh at 163, and Sri Lanka at 135. Norway and Ireland are ranked first and second in the index. According to the report, seven journalists were killed last year in total in Afghanistan, India, the US, Ukraine and Cameroon.
Pakistan: Evacuation from Sudan
On 2 May, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the evacuation operation in Sudan had ended after 1,000 Pakistanis were safely evacuated from the country. The operation is set to continue and evacuate citizens through Jeddah until every single Pakistani is brought back. The ministry also thanked China and Saudi Arabia for supporting the evacuation process.
Central Asia, The Middle East, and Africa
Syria: Israel strikes on Aleppo
On 1 May, Israeli air strikes targeted the Aleppo international airport in the northern part of Syria, killing one soldier and wounding five other soldiers and two civilians. The strikes have rendered the airport out of service, affecting aid flow to the conflict-ridden zones of the
country. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that Israel targeted a munitions depot at the airport, alongside striking a military airport in Aleppo's countryside. However, the latter was not reported by the mainstream media.
Israel-Palestine: Strikes in Israel and Gaza following detainee’s death
On 2 May, Israeli jets carried out strikes on the Gaza strip as a response to the rockets that were fired from Gaza into Israel. The Hamas and the Islamic Jihad (Movement) claimed responsibility for the attack on Israel and claimed it was in response to the death of Khader Adnan, a prominent Palestinian prisoner who was on hunger strike for 87 days. Israel Prisons Service said that Adnan was found unconscious in his cell, and was taken to a hospital but was later declared dead. Following his death, hundreds of people took to streets in Gaza and West Bank and held rallies in support of him. The Israel Military reported that 26 rockets were fired from Gaza, after which three people, including a foreign national were wounded.
Tunisia: Coastguards recovers bodies of 41 migrants
On 28 April, the BBC reported on coastguards recovering the bodies of 41 migrants near the Tunisian coast. A senior official said that more than 200 people drowned over the past week. A justice official in the port city of Sfax, Faouzi Masmoudi said: “On Tuesday [25 April], we had more than 200 bodies, well beyond the capacity of the hospital, which creates a health problem.” The International Organization for Migration (IOM) said that a total of 300 migrants died, including those departing from the Libyan coast, over the past week. It added that more than 800 migrants died this year alone.
Ethiopia: Government agrees to resume negotiations over GERD
On 27 April, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it is ready to resume tripartite negotiations with Egypt and Sudan regarding the issue over the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mesganu Arga, announced the decision during his talk with the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer. The ministry stated through Twitter: “Regarding GERD [Ambassador Mesganu] said Ethiopia is ready to resume the tripartite negotiations under the auspices of the AU.” The relations between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan have strained over the construction and operation of the dam, which demands a legal agreement regarding the same.
Kenya: Opposition resumes protests
On 2 May, the major opposition leader in Kenya, Raila Odinga, resumed protests against the rising cost of living and election irregularities. Initially, the protests began in March, but were later suspended after Odinga and the Kenyan President Willam Ruto agreed to hold talks. The disagreements during the talks led to the resumption of the protests. Besides, the authorities had banned opposition protests claiming to be “in the interests of national security,” and
citing violence during the previous demonstrations.
Horn of Africa: Climate change is the major driver of the worst drought, WAA analysis
On 27 April, Al Jazeera reported on a study by the World Weather Attribution (WAA) on the continuing severe drought in the Horn of Africa. The analysis indicates that the drought has left more than 4.35 million people in the region in dire need of humanitarian aid. Besides, 43,000 people in Somalia are estimated to have died in 2022. According to the study, climate change is a major driver behind the worst drought. A climate scientist with the Kenya Meteorological Department who worked with WWA, Joyce Kimutai, said: “Climate change has made this drought exceptional.”
Burkina Faso: 33 soldiers killed in jihadist attack
On 28 April, BBC reported that at least 33 soldiers were killed in the north-east of Burkina Faso. According to an army statement, Islamist militants active in the region are suspected to be behind the attack. The incident marked the second similar attack over a week, killing dozens of soldiers. Over 100 civilians were killed in the region by what the local officials described as men in military uniform. Non-governmental organizations reported that over 10,000 civilians and soldiers have been killed in various attacks since the beginning of this year.
Europe and the Americas
Europe: Protests across Germany, France, Spain, and Italy on May Day
On 1 May, labour unions and social activists marched across Europe marking International Workers Day to highlight their causes, while many expressed concerns about rising inflation. Climate activists in Paris vandalized a Louis Vuitton Museum, and protesters in Germany demonstrated against violence targeting women and LGBTQ+ people. Despite occasional clashes with police, thousands of people took part in mostly peaceful demonstrations. In Germany, leftist groups and labour unions organized hundreds of rallies, and the German Trade Union Confederation reported that 288,000 people participated in 398 events. In France, hundreds of people protested against President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform, and the protests turned violent after clashes between protesters and security forces. In Italy, the right-wing government approved measures to boost employment and pay rates, while protesters marched against welfare cuts and loosening rules on short-term employment contracts. In Spain, over 70 marches were organized by unions, warning of a "social conflict" if salaries did not keep pace with inflation.
The UK: Over a million NHS staff in England to receive five per cent pay rise
On 3 May, the BBC reported that over one million members of the National Health Service (NHS) staff in England will receive a five per cent pay increase and a one-time payment of at least GBP 1,655, after 14 health unions agreed to the deal proposed by the government in March. The agreement covers the entire NHS staff except doctors and dentists. The offer was accepted by a majority of unions, including Unison and the General Municipal Boilermakers (GMB) trade union, but the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) rejected the deal and has threatened to counter with further strike action. The British Medical Association (BMA) also met with the health secretary to discuss junior doctors' pay, but the two sides have not
reached an agreement.
Peru: Report terms government action against protestors as massacre
On 3 May, a report was released by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) assessing human rights violations and the crackdown of the government against nationwide protests in January 2023. According to Reuters, at least 60 people were killed and hundreds were injured. The protests were triggered following a political crisis and the jailing of former president Pedro Castillo. According to the report, a large number of those killed and injured during the protests had been targeted with firearms. It was also found that many of the harshest responses took place in the rural Andean regions such as Ayacucho and Puno, both of which consist of large Indigenous populations.
Mexico: President urges the US to shut all USAID and terms the funding as interventionist
On 3 May, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador issued a letter to the US President Joe Biden which said: “The U.S. government, specifically through USAID, has for some time been financing organisations openly against the legal and legitimate government I represent.” Obrador asserted that such kind of intervention is not a right conduct between free and sovereign states. Earlier on 28 April, the president threatened to shut down the Institute for Information Access and Transparency (INAI), an autonomous public body which oversees government transparency and freedom of information.
Canada: Government reaches an agreement with striking federal workers
On 1 May, the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) union which was spearheading protests and strikes of federal workers announced that workers will return to work after the government relented to their demands. The PSAC president declared that the union had won a 12.6 per cent wage increase over the four-year contract period (2021-2024) and an agreement with the government will set new bars and working conditions for all workers in Canada. 35,000 workers continue the strike as some pending issues remain unresolved so far.
About the authors
Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray is Director of Mantraya, Goa. He was formerly a Deputy Director at the National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India. Harini Madhusudan, Rashmi Ramesh, Ankit Singh and Akriti Sharma are Doctoral Scholars at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Padmashree Anandan is a Project Associate at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Research Assistants at NIAS.
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Antony Blinken’s China Visit
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China in Mexico: What, How and Why
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South Asia This Week (14 Apr -20 Apr 2024)
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26 April 1986: Chernobyl nuclear accident
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Rise in China’s Marriages
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Elections in Senegal
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T C A Raghavan
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18 March 2014: Russia annexes Crimea
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Taiwan Election 2024: The return of DPP
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NIAS- CEAP- China Reader | Daily Briefs
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The War in Ukraine: Drones, missiles and counterattacks
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Ethiopia and Sudan: Governance in deadlock
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Myanmar in 2023: Extended Emergency, Political Instability and State-led violence
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China in 2023: Cracks in the Great Wall
Amit Gupta | Dr Amit Gupta is an international security and economics analyst based in the USA
The US: The Year of Living Dangerously?
Kuri Sravan Kumar | Kuri Sravan Kumar is a PhD scholar at the Department of East Asian Studies, University of Delhi.
North Korea in 2023: Military buildups and Close Connections with Russia
Yogeshwari S | Yogeswari S is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.
South Korea in 2023: Addressing Climate Change and the Global Supply Chains
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East Asia in 2023: Big Power Politics and New Defence Strategies
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Special Edition: Conflicts in 2023
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NIAS Africa Weekly #92&93 | COP 28 and Africa
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COP28 and Africa: Priorities and Initiatives
NIAS Africa Team
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Sierra Leone: A failed coup
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Henry Kissinger: A profile
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NIAS Africa Weekly #90 | Floods in East Africa
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Floods in East Africa
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Weekly #89 | Africa’s debate on colonial reparations
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Africa’s debate on colonial reparations
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Femy Francis
The return of the South China Sea
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NIAS Africa Weekly #85&86 | Niger-France ties and Liberia elections
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Liberia elections: Explained
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France's increasing unpopularity in Niger
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The Snow Leopards of Pakistan
Padmashree Anandhan
Poland elections 2023: Reasons behind the shift
Padmashree Anandhan
Ukraine: The failure of the Black Sea Grain Initiative
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G20 Summit: India the Global Host
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From Cargo to Canvas: The vibrant world of Pakistani Truck Art
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Taiwan in Africa: The Last Ally and the Lost Allies
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NATO’s Challenge
Genesy B | abcnews
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Ukraine’s Strategies and Endgame
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Africa Weekly #79 | Africa Climate Summit
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Africa Climate Summit: Rising new leadership in climate action
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Coup in Gabon: Three questions
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Africa Weekly #78 | Coup in Gabon
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Wildfires in Europe: Another year of devastation
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Floods in Europe: Impacts, and issues
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A profile on Ethiopia’s Somali ethnic group
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A profile on Ethiopia’s Afar ethnic group
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ECOWAS and Niger remain at an impasse, causing a prolonged standoff
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The High Seas Treaty
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Ukraine War and the International Order
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Coup in Niger: Manifold national, regional and international stances
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The UN in Africa: MINUSMA has failed. So did Mali
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Myanmar continues to burn
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The Wagner Group in Africa: Fallouts of the failed revolt in Russia
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Africa Weekly #69-71 | The Wagner Group in Africa
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Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine
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Rise and fall of the Wagner Revolt: Four Takeaways
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Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts
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Turkey’s Elections: Unravelling the Political Spectacle of 2023
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The Armenia-Azerbaijan Stalemate
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Droughts in East Africa: A climate disaster
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Sudan: Intensifying political rivalry and expanding violence
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Expanding Russia-South Africa relations
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Pentagon document leak: Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Tactical Lens
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Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
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Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war
Padmashree Anandhan
The UK: Conservative party put to test as worker strikes continue
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Pakistan’s Blue Helmets: A long-standing contribution
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Karachi: The race and new alignments for the Mayor
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IN FOCUS | Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways
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IN FOCUS | M23 atrocities in DRC and upcoming Nigeria elections
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Africa in 2023: Elections and conflicts
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The continuing crisis in Israel
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IN FOCUS | Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
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Protests in Spain, Sweden and Israel
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China: A complicated economic recovery
Padmashree Anandhan
Europe: An impending energy crisis and its economic fallouts
Ankit Singh
Defence: Towards a new cold war
Riya Itisha Ekka
Brazil: Managing Bolsonaro’s legacy
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Pakistan in 2023: Between elections, economic turmoil and climate crisis
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Sri Lanka in 2023: A troubling economy and an unstable polity
Avishka Ashok
Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
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IN FOCUS | Bamako’s pardon of Ivorian soldiers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The relapse of ANC
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Newsmakers: From Putin to Rushdie
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Rest in Peace; Queen Elizabeth. Mikhail Gorbachev, Pelé...
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Global economy in 2022: The year of cooling down
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Digital world: Elon Musk and the Twitter Chaos
Madhura Mahesh
The FTX Collapse: Depleting cryptocurrencies
Harini Madhusudan
The Space race: Scaling new technological feats
Avishka Ashok
G20: More challenges
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COP27: Hits and Misses
Padmashree Anandhan
The Ukraine War
Poulomi Mondal
French Exit from Mali: More questions than answers
Mohaimeen Khan
Yemen, Syria, and Sudan: Continuing humanitarian crises
Padmashree Anandhan
NATO and the Madrid Summit: Expanding defence frontiers
Padmashree Anandhan
Elections in France, Sweden, and Italy: The rise of the right
Janardhan G
North Korea: Missile Tests Galore
Avishka Ashok
The Taiwan Strait: Political and military assertions
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia: Uncertainties despite ceasefire
Apoorva Sudhakar
Tunisia: The end of the Jasmine Revolution
Rashmi BR
Iraq: Deadlock and breakthrough
Kaviyadharshini A
Iran: Anti-government protests
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
Sri Lanka: Political and Economic Crises
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: The coup and after
NIAS Africa Team
The US-Africa Leaders Summit
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Workers strike in the UK
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | End of Operation Barkhane
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia
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Drone attacks in Russia
Vignesh Ram | Assistant Professor | Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal
Malaysia’s recent Elections: More questions than answers
Vignesh Ram
Anwar Ibrahim: Malaysia's new Prime Minister
Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
What next for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, South Asia & India, and China
Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe?
Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
COP27: Ten key takeaways
Rashmi Ramesh
Ice Melt in Alps in Europe: Three impacts
Rishma Banerjee
Tracing Europe's droughts
Padmashree Anandhan
Major causes behind Europe’s continuing heatwaves
Emmanuel Selva Royan
100 days of the Ukraine war: US Responses in the war
Padmashree Anandhan
100 days of the Ukraine war: What next for Europe?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
100 days of the Ukraine war: More loss than gain for Russia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Challenges to peace in Eastern Congo
Avishka Ashok | Research Associate | National Institute of Advanced Studies
20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China: Major takaways
Angelin Archana | Assistant Professor, Women’s Christian College, Chennai
China's response to the Ukraine crisis: Shaped by its relationship with Russia and EU under the US Shadow
Shreya Upadhyay | Assistant Professor, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore
Transatlantic Ties in the Wake of Ukraine-Russia War
Uma Purushothaman | Assistant Professor, Central University of Kerala, Kerala
Ukraine and beyond: The US Strategies towards Russia
Debangana Chatterjee | Assistant Professor, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore
Lessons from Ukraine War: Effectiveness of Sanctions
Himani Pant | Research Fellow, ICWA, Delhi
Ukraine and beyond: What next for Russia and Europe?
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Deal
Avishka Ashok
G20 Summit: Four takeaways from Bali
NIAS Africa Team
China-Africa relations: Looking back and looking ahead
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chad's political crisis
Sourina Bej
Elections in Sweden
Padmashree Anandhan
Italy's far-right wins 2022 elections
Padmashree Anandhan
Putin’s address in the Valdai Discussion: Six takeaways
Devjyoti Saha
Solomon Islands’ China card: Three reasons why
NIAS Africa Team
Floods in West Africa: Nigeria and beyond
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Famine in Somalia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Kenya Elections 2022
IPRI Team
Protests in Iran
IPRI Team
Clashes between Armenia-Azerbaijan
Padmashree Anandhan
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The reinvention of Al Shabab
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Lavrov's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron's visit to Africa
GP Team
Floods and Emergency in Pakistan
IPRI Team
Six months of War in Ukraine
GP Team
Regional round-ups
Padmashree Anandhan
Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liss Truss v. Rishi Sunak
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Tunisia's political crisis
NIAS Africa Team
Tunisia’s political crisis: Five questions
NIAS Africa Team
Tribal conflict in Blue Nile: Causes and Implications
STIR Team
Geopolitics of Semiconductors
Padmashree Anandhan
France: Uber files leak, and Macron’s trouble
Emmanuel Selva Royan
Italy: Three factors about its current political instability
NIAS Africa Team
Sudan-Ethiopia border tensions and a profile of Blaise Compaoré
NIAS Africa Team
Africa’s continuing migration problem: Three issues
STIR Team
China in Space: Shenzhou-13 and Tiangong
NIAS Africa Team
Africa’s displacement crises: Three key drivers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Into the Sixth Decade of African Unity
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Communal Tensions in Ethiopia
Padmashree Anandhan
What does Macron's victory mean for France and the EU
Rishma Banerjee
The rise of Marine Le Pen
Sourina Bej
Four challenges ahead for President Macron
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Mali ends defence ties with France
GP Team
New US assistance for Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | UK-Rwanda asylum deal
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Africa, Russia, and the War in Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Political Crisis in Tunisia
GP Team
Russia's gas ultimatum to Europe
IPRI Team
30 days of War in Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
60 years of Algerian independence
IPRI Team
Sri Lanka’s worsening economic crisis
NIAS Africa Team
In Focus: Libya
IPRI Team
The end of Denmark’s Inuit experiment
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Europe and Africa: Will AU and EU be equal partners?
Anu Maria Joseph
Europe and Africa: Will AU and EU be equal partners?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lecture report: Ukraine, Russia and Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Into History: Northern Ireland and Bloody Sunday, 50 years later
Nireekshan Bollimpalli
Africa’s slow COVID vaccination continues. Four reasons why
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS: Conflict over the Nile Dam
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS: Instability in Burkina Faso
Padmashree Anandhan
Munich Security Report: Six takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
Europe and Africa: An elusive search for an equal partnership
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Femicides in Europe: The case of France
Padmashree Anandhan
Post Brexit: Three challenges in Northern Ireland
Porkkodi Ganeshpandian and Angkuran Dey
The return of the Left
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lithuania and China: Vilnius has become Beijing’s Achilles heel. Four reasons why
Mohamad Aseel Ummer
Africa: The anti-France sentiments in Mali and beyond
Shalini Balaiah
The Middle East in 2021: Never-ending wars and conflicts
Angelin Archana
Russia in 2021: Expanding boundaries
Prakash Panneerselvam
East Asia in 2021: New era of hegemonic competition
Apoorva Sudhakar
Coup in Burkina Faso: Five things to know
Joeana Cera Matthews
In Europe, abortion rights are "a privilege." Four reasons why
Padmashree Anandhan
Mapping COVID-19 protests in Europe: Who and Why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan, US and Russia: Putin Online, Biden Offline
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The unrest in Kazakhstan: Look beyond the trigger
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Deepening Pakistan-Russia ties
D. Suba Chandran
Justice Ayesha: Breaking the Legal Ceiling
Ankit Singh
Pakistan's Judiciary in 2021
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Same Page Story: Civil-Military Relations in 2021
D. Suba Chandran
Pakistan's Foreign Policy in 2021
Ankit Singh
Pakistan’s economy in 2021: Major highlights
Ankit Singh
Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank
Apoorva Sudhakar
The PDM is back, again
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Qureshi’s visit to Brussels: Three takeaways
GP Team
The Complete Compendium for 2021
GP Team
The Americas in 2021
GP Team
Europe in 2021
GP Team
Middle East and Africa in 2021
GP Team
South Asia in 2021
Apoorva Sudhakar
Protests in Gwadar: Four major highlights
Ankit Singh
Mini budget, IMF and a contemporary puzzle.
Ankit Singh
Pappu Sain bids adieu to the world
Apoorva Sudhakar
Smog, pollution and more: Deteriorating air quality in Pakistan
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
PTI’s secret dealing with the TTP and TLP
Vaishnavi Iyer
France, Algeria, and the politics over an apology
Joeana Cera Matthews
NATO-Russia relationship: Looking beyond the suspensions and expulsions
D. Suba Chandran
PTI’s TLP flip-flop and a secret deal
Apoorva Sudhakar
The increasing curbs on digital media freedom in Pakistan
Padmashree Anandhan
Facebook's Metaverse: Why it matters to Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Poland, EU and PolExit. It is complicated, for three reasons
Harini Madhusudhan
Europe's Energy Crisis and Gazprom
D. Suba Chandran
TLP: The government caves in again
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
TLP is back again
Apoorva Sudhakar | Project Associate, School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS
Pakistan’s transgender community: The long road ahead
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Since January 2021: Why the US President has not called Pakistan’s Prime Minister so far?
Apoorva Sudhakar
No honour in honour killing
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Military Reshuffle: A strategic or routine decision?
D. Suba Chandran
Dr AQ Khan: Between a national hero and a nuclear proliferator
Apoorva Sudhakar
Rising child abuse in Pakistan: Five reasons why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Hazara Persecution in Pakistan: No end in sight
D. Suba Chandran
Protests in Gwadar: Who and Why
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Europe's Energy Crisis: It could get worse. Five reasons why
STIR Team
Cover Story: War against Malaria
Aswathy Koonampilly
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old party
GP Team
Europe's Energy Crisis
STIR Team
The Science and Politics of Materials
Sourina Bej
France: Paris Terror Trial
Harini Madhusudan
Belarus: Weaponization of the Migrant Crisis
Juan Mary Joseph
Attacks on Chinese Investments in Pakistan: Who, Where And Why?
Joeana Cera Matthews
Haiti: Two months after the assassination, the storm is still brewing
Joeana Cera Matthews
From Crimea to Navalny: Putin's calibrated Europe strategy
Joeana Cera Matthews
Nord Stream-2: Why is the region unhappy about the pipeline?
Lokendra Sharma
Two months of Cuban protests: Is the ‘revolution’ ending?
GP Team
The New Afghanistan
STIR Team
Climate Change and Energy Options
Apoorva Sudhakar
Digital Pakistan: Idea, Potential and Challenges
Anu Maria Joseph
South Africa: What is behind the pro-Zuma protests?
Dincy Adlakha
China and Russia in Myanmar: The interests that bind
Sarthak Jain
Nord Stream 2 is Russia’s geopolitical victory
Jeshil J Samuel
REvil is dead. Long live REvil
STIR Team
Space Tourism
Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar
The EU Summit 2021: Five Takeaways
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Impending famine in Tigray, should make Ethiopia everyone's problem
Anu Maria Joseph
Too late and too little is Ethiopia's international problem
Sankalp Gurjar
Africa's Ethiopia Problem
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia's Tigray problem is Tigray's Ethiopia problem
Lokendra Sharma
The future of nuclear energy looks bleak
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Five reasons why Afghanistan is closer to a civil war
Mohamad Aseel Ummer
Migration in Africa: Origin, Drivers and Destinations
Dincy Adlakha
The new three-child policy is two decades too late
Dincy Adlakha
Loud Echoes of the National Security Law in China
Joeana Cera Matthews
Farfetched goals on pandemic recovery, climate action and economic revival
STIR Team
Rare Earths and the Global Resource Race
SDP Scholar
The Rise and Reign of Ransomware
Gurpreet Singh
India and the geopolitics of supply chains
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Spain, Morocco and the rise of rightwing politics in Europe over immigration
Vibha Venugopal
The return of Taliban will be bad news for women
Udbhav Krishna P
Revisiting the recent violence: Three takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
For the Economist, Taiwan is the most dangerous place. The argument is complicated
Apoorva Sudhakar
15 of the 23 global hunger hotspots are in Africa. Three reasons why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US decision to withdraw is a call made too early. Three reasons why
Lokendra Sharma
Learning from Cuba's vaccine development efforts
V S Ramamurthy and Dinesh K Srivastava
An energy mix of renewables and nuclear is the most viable option
Lokendra Sharma
Deadly second wave spirals into a humanitarian disaster
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US-Taliban Deal: One Year Later
Akriti Sharma
The Quad Plus and the search beyond the four countries
Apoorva Sudhakar
India's Endgames, Roles and Limitations in Quad
Sukanya Bali
Tracing the Quad's evolution in the last two decades
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: Five fallouts of the military offensive in Tigray
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Afghanistan: The recent surge in targeted killing vs the troops withdrawal
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
In Honduras, a move towards a permanent ban on abortion laws
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Civilian protests vs military: Three factors will decide the outcome in Myanmar
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Trump’s Climate Change legacy: Disruption and Denial
Apoorva Sudhakar
Trump’s Iran legacy: Maximum pressure, minimum results
N Manoharan and Drorima Chatterjee
Five ways India can detangle the fishermen issue with Sri Lanka
IPRI Team
Coup in Myanmar and Protests in Russia
D Suba Chandran
The PDM differences, Gwadar fencing, and Lakhvi's arrest
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Nagorno-Karabakh: Rekindled fighting, Causalities and a Ceasefire
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: For the pro-democracy protests, it is a long march ahead
Harini Madhusudan
Brexit: A year of the UK-EU transition talks and finally, a Deal
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: The conflict in Tigray and the regional fallouts
Aparaajita Pandey
The Americas: Top Five Developments
Teiborlang T Kharsyntiew
Europe: Top five developments
Sandip Kumar Mishra
East Asia: Top Five developments in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
Outer Space in 2020: Missions, Privatization, and the Artemis Accords
Sukanya Bali
5G, Huawei and TikTok: Four trends in 2020
Sumedha Chatterjee
COVID-19: How the world fought in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The Vaccine Rush: Expectations vs Realities
Harini Madhusudan
Open Skies Treaty: The US should not have withdrawn, for five reasons
Savithri Sellapperumage
Kamala Harris makes history
Mallika Devi
China is against the Quad. Five reasons why
Srikumar Pullat
Space of Tomorrow: The Need for Space Security
Tamanna Khosla
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old Challenges
Vaishali Handique
Not just regime change: Women and protest movements in Sudan
Sneha Tadkal
Technology in contemporary global protest movements
Chavindi Weerawansha
Students as agents of change: Protest movements in Zimbabwe
Anju Annie Mammen
“Unveiling”: Women and protest movements in the Middle East
Harini Madhusudan
‘The Revolution of Our Times’: Protests in Hong Kong
Samreen Wani
Lebanon: Can Macron's visit prevent the unravelling?
Harini Madhusudan
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe. It is Complicated.
Boa Wang
Two Sessions in Beijing
Boa Wang
How China fought the COVID-19
N. Manoharan
Is COVID-19 a Bio-weapon from China?
Prof PM Soundar Rajan
Is there an overlap of 5G Networks and COVID hotspots?
Rashmi Ramesh
Will COVID-19 provide a new agenda to the NAM?
Harini Madhusudan
Iran's New Military Satellite: Does it violate the UNSC 2231?
Jenice Jean Goveas
Epidemics through History
Sanduni Atapattu
Preventing hatred and suspicion would be a bigger struggle
Chavindi Weerawansha
A majority in the minority community suffers, for the action of a few
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
The Cardinal sermons for peace, with a message to forgive
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Who and Why of the Perpetrators
Natasha Fernando
In retrospect, where did we go wrong?
Ruwanthi Jayasekara
Build the power of Co-existence, Trust, Gender and Awareness
N Manoharan
New ethnic faultlines at macro and micro levels
Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
A year has gone, but the pain has not vanished
Jenice Jean Goveas
In India, the glass is half full for the women
Fatemah Ghafori
In Afghanistan, there is no going back for the women
Lakshmi V Menon
The decline in terrorism in Pakistan in 2019
Rashmi Ramesh
The EU and the Arctic: The interest is not mutual. Why?
Rashmi Ramesh
Iceland, Denmark and Norway: Small is Big in the Arctic
Harini Madhusudan
The Non-Arctic powers: Interests of Japan and South Korea
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia: New PM, Old Challenges
Lakshmi V Menon
Pakistan to remain “Grey”; North Korea and Iran in “Black”
Rashmi Ramesh
Trump's India Visit: Optics, Substance and Rhetoric
Kabi Adhikari
The controversial MCC Nepal Compact
Malini Sethuraman
ISIS post Baghdadi: Will there be another Caliphate in 2020?
Aarathi Srinivasan
Climate Change: The Economy of the Indian Ocean Region in 2020
Prathiksha Ravi
Israel and the Middle East: The New Alliance Plans in 2020
Padmini Anilkumar
Middle East: The Return of Russia in 2020
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan and Algeria: Road to Democracy in 2020
Lakshmi V Menon
Syria: ISIS Decline, US Retreat and the Return of Russia in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute: Towards further disruptions in 2020
Parikshith Pradeep
The US under Donald Trump: The Fall of an Empire in 2020
Vivek Mishra
After Soleimani assassination: Options for the US
Sukanya Bali
Iran, Iraq and the US: Who wants what?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Old problems to persist with no solutions in the near term
Aashiyana Adhikari
Indian and Chinese investments in Nepal: Managing asymmetry
Shailesh Nayak | Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Blue Economy and India: An Introduction
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
North Africa in 2019: A year of protests, with some positive results
Sukanya Bali
Hong Kong in 2019: China's New Achilles Heel
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute in 2019: Towards a thaw in 2020?
Parikshith Pradeep
The US in 2019: Trump rollsout a template for a global American retreat
Rashmi Ramesh
The Arctic Littorals: Iceland and Greenland
Harini Madhusudan
The Polar Silk Route: China's ambitious search in the Arctic
GP Team
Syria: Who wants what?
Harini Madhusudan
Violence in Hong Kong: Will the protests end?
Rashmi Ramesh
Is Catalonia Spain’s Hong Kong?
D. Suba Chandran
Why an Arctic foray is essential for India
Parikshith Pradeep
Russia's Polar Military Edge
Nidhi Dalal
Protests rock Chile, Bolivia and Haiti
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Will prosecuting Suu Kyi resolve the Rohingya problem?
Lakshman Chakravarthy N & Rashmi Ramesh
Climate Change: Four Actors, No Action
Sukanya Bali
Brexit: Preparing for the Worst Case
Lakshman Chakravarthy N
5G: A Primer
Rashmi Ramesh
From Okjökull to OK: Death of a Glacier in Iceland
Sukanya Bali
Challenges before Boris Johnson
Parikshith Pradeep
The Hong Kong Protests: Who wants what
Harini Madhusudan
The Hong Kong Protests: Re-defining mass mobilization
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
ASEAN Outlook on the Indo Pacific: Worth all the Hype?
Mahesh Bhatta
Monsoons first, Floods next and the Blame Games follow
Titsala Sangtam
Counting Citizens: Manipur charts its own NRC
Vivek Mishra
Can Hedging be India’s Strategy?
Lakshmi V Menon
Amidst the US-Iran standoff, Saudi Arabia should be cautious
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Russia, it was big power projection
Harini Madhusudan
For China, it was trade and a temporary truce
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
For Japan, it was commerce and climate change
Sourina Bej
For the US, it was trade, tariff and talks
Titsala Sangtam
Iran, US and the Nuclear deal: Europe in the middle?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Modi's Colombo Visit: Four issues to watch
Raakhavee Ramesh
Higher than the Himalayas: Pakistan and China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Across the Himalayas: Nepal and China
Mahath Mangal
The Russian Resurgence: Is the US supremacy waning?
Mahath Mangal
San Francisco wants to ban, Kashgar wants to expand
Jerin George
Espionage or Investigative Journalism?
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Huawei Controversy: Five things you need to know
Mahath Mangal
Why the world needs to look at Yemen
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Central Asia Connector
Harini Madhusudan
An Under-represented East Asia
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Africa Embraces the Belt and Road
Sourina Bej
It’s Europe vs EU on China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan: Between Democracy and another military rule
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Responses and Inspiring Lessons
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: Between Elections and Instability
Sourina Bej
Two Sessions in 2019: Four Takeaways
Lakshmi V Menon
The End of ISIS Caliphate?
Harini Madhusudan
For China, its a sigh of relief
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
For Vietnam, its a big deal
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Japan, No Deal is Good Deal
Sourina Bej
For South Korea, a costly disappointment
Harini Madhusudan
No deal is better, but isn't it bad?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The Other Conflict in Rakhine State
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Yemen: Will Sa'nna fall?
Harini Madhusudan
Sinicizing the Minorities
GP Team
US, South Korea and Thailand
Lakshmi V Menon
The Qatar Blockade: Eighteen Months Later
GP Team
Yemen, Venezuela and US-China
Sourina Bej
Maghreb: What makes al Shahab Resilient?
Harini Madhusudan
US-China Trade War: No Clear Winners
Abhishrut Singh
Trump’s Shutdown: Five Things to Know
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Will 2019 be better for the Rohingya?
D. Suba Chandran
Bangladesh: The Burden of Electoral History
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
US and China: Between Confrontation and Competition
Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu
Nepal
Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
The Maldives
Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
India
Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Bangladesh
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Afghanistan
Harini Madhusudan
China and Japan: Renewing relations at the right time
Sourina Bej
The INF Treaty: US withdraws to balance China?
Harini Madhusudan
The Khashoggi Killing: Unanswered Questions
Lakshmi V Menon
US and Israel: Trump's Deal of the Century
Nasima Khatoon
The New Maldives: Advantage India?
Harini Madhusudhan
To NAFTA or Not: Trump, Mexico and Canada
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia’s China Moment: The Mahathir Gamble
Sourina Bej
BIMSTEC: A Bay of Good Hope?
Young Scholars Debate
India, Imran Khan and Indo-Pak Relations
Siddhatti Mehta
Does Brexit mean Brexit?
Oishee Majumdar
Factsheet: China’s Investments in Africa
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The 8888 Uprising: Thirty Years Later
Harini Madhusudhan
The Tariff War: 'Stick of Hegemony' vs Vital Interests
Druta Bhatt
FactSheet: Shangri La Dialogue 2018
Rahul Arockiaraj
Immigrants as the “Other”: The Social and Economic Factors in the US
Divyabharathi E
Is Trump-Putin Summit a setback for the US?
Apoorva Sudhakar
India and Bangladesh: The Long Haul
Divyabharathi E
Quad as an alternative to the BRI: Three Main Challenges
Oishee Majumdar
FactSheet: India-Bangladesh Relations
D. Suba Chandran
Trump meets Putin; will it cost NATO?
Sourina Bej
Trump and the NATO: One Block, Different Views
Gayan Gowramma KC
Now, the United States withdraws from the UNHRC
Siddhatti Mehta
Will China be able to sustain its Dominance?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Why won't they do anything for the Rohingya?
Harini Madhusudan
The Idea of an US Space Force: Strategic Calculations
Apoorva Sudhakar
Afghan Peace: Reality or Illusion?
Hely Desai
Looking beyond Trump: Is the US declining?
Manushi Kapadia
Is China using its soft power to become superpower?
Lakshmi. V. Menon
Middle East: Has Russia chosen Israel over Iran?
Miti Shah
G7: Why Trump wants Russia in?
Hely Desai
FactSheet: G7 Summit
Siddhatti Mehta
The Panmunjom Declaration: “Tip of the Iceberg”
Druta Bhatt
Iran N-Deal and the Trans-Atlantic Divide
Manushi Kapadia
US and China: Towards a Trade War
Miti Shah
Palestine: US triggers new tensions
Divyabharathi E
The "Indo-Pacific Command": What's in the name?
Harini Madhusudan
Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Targetting Adversaries and Allies
Hely Desai
Trump-Kim Summit: Three Likely Outcomes
Apoorva Sudhakar
The Lebanon Pawn: Will it change after elections?
Lakshmi V Menon
Israel, the Game Changer?
Samreen Wani
Deciphering Turkey's External Push
Divyabharathi E
China and Russia: The New Alignments
Ann Maria Shibu
Can India afford to lose Maldives to China?
Dhruv Ashok
Why Maldives is important to China?
Lakshmi V Menon
ISIS and the Yazidi victims: Why the World should stand up?
Harini Madhusudan
US- China Tariff Face-off : Five questions
Jamyang Dolma
Why is Free Tibet important for India
Divyabharathi E
Arctic: The Strategic Significance
Lakshmi V Menon
Do we need the Quad?
Samreen Wani
Why Trump’s Iran exit is a big mistake?
Jamyang Dolma
Inter Korean Summit: Will it work?
Dhruv Ashok
The Fishermen Issue between India and Sri Lanka
Apoorva Sudhakar
Bangladesh's Economy: Decoding a Success Story
Ann Maria Shibu
Why India should not pull out of the Indus water treaty?
Divyabharathi E