West warns Russia over Ukrainian aggression and South Korea and North Korean agree on end-of-war declaration in principle

CWA # 627

Conflict Weekly

West warns Russia over Ukrainian aggression and South Korea and North Korean agree on end-of-war declaration in principle

IPRI Team
16 December 2021

Photo Source: Al Jazeera

Conflict Weekly #101, 16 December 2021, Vol.2, No.37
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and KAS-India Office

Ukraine: The West warns Russia over Ukrainian aggression
In the news
On 14 December, commenting on possible nuclear missile launches, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: “Lack of progress towards a political and diplomatic solution to this problem will lead to our response being of a military and technical military nature.”

On 13 December, the EU foreign minister imposed sanctions on the Russian-based Wagner Group, accused of acting on behalf of the Kremlin.

On 12 December, following the G7 foreign ministers’ meet, the group released a statement that read: “Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response.”

On 11 December, US President Joe Biden stated: “I made it absolutely clear to President Putin… that if he moves on Ukraine, the economic consequences for his economy are going to be devastating, devastating.”

On 10 December, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned: “Aggression needs to come with a price tag, which is why we will communicate these points ahead of time to Russia.” On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated: “I do not rule out a referendum on Donbas in general… It might be about Donbas, it might be about Crimea, it might be about ending the war in general.”

Issues at large
First, the recent crisis. The second troop buildup this year, latest statistics show about 100,000 troops along the border; it is expected to go up to 175,000 according to US intelligence. The standoff, however, is not only about military might, energy plays a very important role in the unfolding of the crisis. The activation of Nord Stream 2 implies a greater security concern for Ukraine as it reduces the volume of gas Ukraine transits. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed the “vulnerable security situation” that would arise on the launch of the pipeline, leading to an increased vulnerability to “potential Russian aggressive actions”.

Second, the Minsk process. If the Minsk Protocol I failed as a ceasefire agreement, Minsk Protocol II saw its failure via lack of implementation. The shooting in the region has never really stopped. Allegations also exist on Russia not having fulfilled its commitments as part of the Minsk agreements. In an attempt to resolve the crisis, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for the revival of the Normandy format talks. The format which involves leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia has not taken place since 2019.

Third, Russia’s endgame. The West’s military proximity concerns Russian President Vladimir Putin; security seems to be his primary concern as NATO advances geopolitically. In Putin’s words, acceding Ukraine into the organization is a “red line”. Alternatively, Russia eyes Ukraine’s east – Donetsk and Luhansk – along with the already annexed Crimean Peninsula. The separatists in this region only make it easier for Moscow. Any attempt to oppose Russian efforts could be met with costly consequences such as seen in the case of Georgia’s Saakashvili.

Fourth, the Western response. Besides the widespread condemnation, deterrence has been the West’s sole response. Burdened with the responsibility of having to engage post a Russian invasion, the subsequent fear of the measures to be considered leaves them in a dilemma. Their limited response also attributes to the fact that a tough stance could break into an all-out war that is detrimental for the region.

In perspective
First, the larger picture. Unlike all the other times Russia has militarized the borders, the growing concerns over their latest build-up may attribute to the potentiality of the situation. The West remains unaware of what such a situation would include. Deterrence measures seem to be the only hail Mary.

Second, the growing tensions between Russia and the West. From the Belarusian migrant crisis to now the Ukrainian border standoff, Russia and the West are experiencing severely strained ties. As Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda suggested, the agenda behind Russian efforts at destabilization could be to “test the unity of the West”. It is imperative that the latter does not fail this. Meanwhile, both sides are to keep in mind the invasion’s collateral damage will exceed potential gains.

North Korea-South Korea: President Moon Jae-in announces end-of-war declaration in principle
In the news
On 13 December, South Korean President Moon Jae-in announced that the US, China, and North Korea have agreed in principle on declaring a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War. Moon made the remarks while addressing a joint press conference with the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in Canberra, Australia. Moon said: “The US, China, and North Korea have all expressed their agreement in theory, in principle.” Moon commented: “However, because North Korea is demanding the fundamental withdrawal of the US’ hostile policy toward the North as a precondition, we have not been able to enter talks.” He assured that South Korea will work until the end to bring the parties to an agreement and “An end-of-war declaration is not the ultimate goal.”
Moon further added: “on top of signifying the end of the unstable armistice regime that has continued for nearly 70 years, it can serve as a momentum to restart talks between South, North and the US.”

Issues at large
First, the bilateral ties between North and South Korea. The Korean War ended in 1950-53 with an armistice and have been officially at war for 70 years. After the War, the first major contact between the two states after the war was in 1972- a short-lived dialogue between the two Koreas. In the 1990s, there were significant signs of rapprochement between North and South Korea which led to a pact of reconciliation and non-aggression in 1991. By the 21st century, the belief in the unification of the Korean peninsula surfaced. The relations starting deteriorating in 2007 and continued spirally downwards till 2011. In 2011, Kim Jong-Un came into power and accelerated the weapon development. In the two last decades tensions have risen multiple times reaching their highest points later simmering down.

Second, President Moon’s determination to the end-of-war declaration. The end-of-war declaration means different things to the parties involved. For South Korea, the declaration serves as Moon Jae-in’s last opportunity to make a significant change in the security tensions in the Korean peninsula and also make history before his term comes to an end. With respect to Seoul’s relation with the US vis-a via China, South Korea performs a balancing act between the US, its security ally, and
China, its economic partner. Moon has always been keen to act upon the end-of-war declaration with the US was due to repeated military provocations by Pyongyang.

Third, North Korea’s deadlock situation. In September 2021, Pyongyang rejected President Moon’s calls for an official declaration claiming it is a hostile policy by the US. For Pyongyang, the focus was on lifting the economic sanctions rather than ending the war. The efforts made are in order to de-escalate the ongoing arms race in the Korean peninsula taking gradual steps towards denuclearization. North Korea has been developing and testing nuclear and ballistic missile range which presents a threat to the region.

Fourth, the US-China tangent. Beijing and Washington are the two important variables in easing or escalating tensions in the Korean peninsula. China chose the finest option of playing indifferent and accepting Seoul’s proposition to the end-of-war declaration but having its own reservations. The US sees the end-of-war declaration as a path to denuclearize North Korea and seek South Korea as their natural ally. Thus, Washington is trying to narrow Seoul’s economic dependence on Beijing.

In perspective
First, the end-of-war declaration has limited impact. With this new development, the US has to withdraw 28,500 troops from the Korean peninsula before Pyongyang has been denuclearized. There is no denying that countries including South Korea, North Korea, Japan, China, and US would be affected by the declaration but the impact would be rather marginalized.

Second, Moon’s political legacy. As Moon’s presidential term winds up in March 2022, he hopes to bring North Korea to the negotiating table before completing his term. However, the conflict ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty which is a challenge for South Korea.

Also from around the World
By Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez

Peace and Conflict from East and Southeast Asia
China: Nanjing Massacre of 1937 commemorated on 13 December
On 13 December, the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and the State Council observed the anniversary of the 1937 Nanjing massacre carried out by Japan, wherein 300,000 people lost their lives. Xinhuanet reported the address of Vice Premier Sun Chunlan to the 3,000 people who participated in the commemoration. Sun opined that the commemoration reflected China’s determination to learn from history to carve a bright future. In 2014, 13 December was declared the Memorial Day for the Nanjing massacre victims.

Taiwan: China makes 12th intrusion into ADIZ, says National Defense Ministry
On 14 December, five People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s aircraft entered the air defense identification zone (ADIZ) of Taiwan. Taiwan News referred to the Ministry of National Defense which said that in retaliation, Taiwan had sent an aircraft issuing radio warnings to the PLAAF aircraft. This is the 12th intrusion in December, with 49 Chinese planes recorded to have entered the ADIZ.

Myanmar: US looks for additional steps to pressure junta; violence continues in different parts of the country
On 15 December, during his visit to Malaysia, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the US was deliberating on additional steps that could be taken to pressure the Myanmar junta and place the country on a democratic path again. The development came after the US, UK and Canada, marking the Human Rights Day on 10 December, imposed sanctions on entities related to the Myanmar military, on grounds of human rights abuses. In another development, an NGO based in the UK submitted evidence to the International Criminal Court (ICC) against coup leader General Min Aung Hlaing, claiming that he had a role in crimes against humanity. Meanwhile, violence in Myanmar continued; on 13 December, the junta troops burned down around 100 houses in a raid in Sagaing Region. On 14 December, in the Yangon Region, civilian resistance groups, the Hmawbi Township People’s Defense Force and the Hmawbi Offspring Force claimed an attack on the motorcade of two ministers of the military government.

Indonesia-Malaysia: At least 11 Indonesian migrants die after boat capsizes in South China Sea
On 15 December, officials from Malaysia’s Maritime Enforcement Agency said at least 11 people were killed and 25 missing after a boat with 50 Indonesian migrants on board capsized in the South China Sea. The Malaysian Army’s Third Infantry Division spokesperson said the Indonesians had sailed from the Batam island along the Singapore Strait. The spokesperson said those rescued would be interrogated before deportation.

Asia and the Pacific: Climate change impacts millions across countries in the region
On 15 December, a press release from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) reported that over 57 million people in Asia and the Pacific suffered the impact of climate-related disasters in 2021. The press release reports Indonesia to be the worst affected in Southeast Asia with over a million being impacted by the floods in November alone. Similarly, close to a million people were affected by floods in Thailand, half a million in the Philippines, and floods disrupted the lives of 125,000 people in Myanmar. Storms and rising sea tides also caused massive flooding in the Pacific Island countries.

Peace and Conflict from South Asia
India: Farmers withdraw from protests sites and borders
On 15 December, the last batches of farmers protesting at Delhi borders have vacated the Uttar Pradesh border site (UP Gate) at Ghazipur. This comes after Samyukta Kisan Morcha, an umbrella organisation of 40 farmer unions decided to suspend the farm protest at Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur after three controversial farm laws were repealed by Parliament, followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement on the same. The three borders among others have been sites of protests for the farmers who have been protesting against the farm law since 26 November 2020.

India: Two policemen killed as militants opened fire in Srinagar
On 13 December, two policemen and 14 others were injured after militants opened fire at a police bus in Srinagar. According to the police, the attack was carried out by an offshoot of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). The attack coincided with the 20th anniversary of the terror attack on Parliament and is the first major attack on security forces since the abrogation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and the Lethpora car bombing that killed 40 CRPF personnel in 2019. Following the attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “He has also expressed condolences to the families of those security personnel who have been martyred in the attack.”

Pakistan: TTP withdraws ceasefire agreement with the government
On 9 December, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) announced an end to the ceasefire with the Pakistani government, accusing the latter of going back on the promises made in the initial stages of peace talks. The TTP claimed that the government not only failed to implement the agreement reached but instead the security forces conducted raids in Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, Swat, Bajaur, Swabi and North Waziristan and killed and detained militants, adding, “Under these circumstances, it is not possible to extend the ceasefire.” This decision comes as a major setback for the government’s efforts to secure a peace agreement with the militants.

Afghanistan: Afghans’ face ‘Avalanche of Hunger and Destitution,’ says WFP
On 14 December, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) Country Director Mary-Ellen McGroarty said: “Afghanistan is facing an avalanche of hunger and destitution the likes of which I have never seen in my twenty-plus years with the World Food Program,” adding that the WFP urgently required USD 220 million each month in 2022 for 23 million Afghans. According to a WFP survey, an estimated 98 per cent of Afghans are not eating enough, with seven in 10 families resorting to borrowing food, which pushes them deeper into poverty.

Echoing the same, the UN Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights, Nada Al-Nashif, said that Afghans “today face a profound humanitarian crisis” that also threatens very basic “human rights.” She added: “Economic life is largely paralysed with the collapse of the banking system and a severe liquidity crisis. With winter having arrived, women, men, boys and girls face severe poverty and hunger, and limited and deteriorating public services, particularly health care.”

Peace and Conflict from Central Asia, Middle East and Africa
Armenia-Azerbaijan: Pashinian, Aliyev meet in Brussels for EU-mediated talks
On 14 December, the press release from the European Council said Council President Charles Michel had hosted the Armenian Prime Minister and Azerbaijani President in Brussels to discuss the situation in the South Caucasus. PM Nikol Pashinian and President Ilham Aliyev were assured of the European Union’s commitment to assist the two countries in overcoming their conflict. Meanwhile, the two leaders “reconfirmed that key commitments undertaken in the framework of the two trilateral statements of 9 November 2020 and 11 January 2021 would be honoured and that understandings reached in Sochi on 26 November 2021 should be built upon.”

Syria: Syrian Democratic Forces claim to have killed five suspected IS terrorists
On 13 December, five suspected Islamic State terrorists had been killed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in the Deir el-Zour province, with the help of US-led forces. However, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in the raid carried out by the SDF, civilians were also killed. The Observatory said the raids targeted a wanted IS terrorists who fled the scene; following this, the suspect’s father and brother were captured and killed. Other activist and media groups reported targeting of civilians who resisted or hid from the SDF raid.

Israel-UAE: Israeli PM visits Abu Dhabi, meets Crown Prince
On 13 December, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met with UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Zayed. The meeting was historic as it marked the first visit by an Israeli leader to the UAE and The New York Times said it signified a “rapid realignment of the Middle East.” The news report quoted from a joint statement by the two leaders who termed the meeting “another milestone in the development of warm relations and a tremendous partnership forged between the two countries.” In another development, Saudi Arabia’s permanent representative to the UN told Arab News Israel will secure its recognition by all countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, “as soon as Israel implements the elements of the Saudi peace initiative that was presented in 2002.”

Mali: In a significant development, French troops leave Timbuktu base
On 14 December, French troops began leaving the military base in Timbuktu after handing over the base to the Malian military. The development has been described as a significant one; the French mission in Mali began in 2013 in Timbuktu. Al Jazeera quoted the head of French Operation Barkhane: “This is ultimately the aim of Operation Barkhane: To allow Mali to take its destiny into its own hands … but always in partnership.” General Etienne du Peyroux said French troops will be present in Mali “in a different way.”

Sudan: Latest wave of violence in West Darfur leaves over 100 dead
On 10 December, Al Jazeera reported statements of the West Darfur Doctors Committee which said that at least 138 people had been killed in the latest spree of violence in different parts of West Darfur. As many as 88 were killed in the Kreinik area, 5 in Jebel Moon, and eight in Sarba locality. Fighting between armed camel herders reportedly began on 17 November in the Jebel Moon region. The UN estimates that the violence in Jebel Moon alone has resulted in the displacement of over 10,000 people.

Nigeria: Increasing insecurity in the north sparks protest
On 10 December, Sahara Reporters reported that the Coalition of Concerned Northern Nigerian Groups had commenced a protest in capital city Abuja against the increasing insecurity across Nigeria, especially in the north. The development comes after gunmen shot dead at least 16 people in a mosque on 8 December in Niger state. The news report says protesters carried placards reading: “#SaveTheNorth; #NorthernLivesMatter; #NorthIsBleeding; #SecureOurLives; #EnoughIsEniugh; and #NoMoreBloodShed.” In neighbouring Katsina state, a senior government official was shot dead by gunmen.

Africa: Number of hungry people in Africa on the rise, says latest report
On 14 December, a press release from the Food and Agriculture Organization reported the launch of a digital report which highlights the rising number of people exposed to hunger in Africa. The problem has been fuelled by “conflict, climate change and economic slowdowns including those triggered by COVID-19.” The deterioration of the hunger situation in the continent was recorded to have worsened the most in the 2019 to 2020 period. The report outlines: “In 2020, 281.6 million Africans were undernourished, an increase of 89.1 million over 2014,” adding, “About 44 percent of undernourished people on the continent live in Eastern Africa, 27 percent in Western Africa, 20 percent in Central Africa, 6.2 percent in Northern Africa, and 2.4 percent in Southern Africa.”

Peace and Conflict from Europe and the Americas
The UK-EU: Goods exported from Ireland to Great Britain to be temporarily exempted from border controls
On 15 December, the UK and European Union decided that goods exported from Ireland to Great Britain will be temporarily exempted from new border controls. According to the UK government, the decision was a “pragmatic act of goodwill” which can help maintain space for continued negotiations on the Northern Ireland Protocol. Brexit Minister Lord Frost stated “This is because there are specific treaty and legislative commitments to 'unfettered access' for goods from NI, because there are currently 'standstill' arrangements in place for operating the protocol, and because negotiations on the protocol itself are still under way and will not be definitively completed by 1 January.” Meanwhile, Ireland’s foreign affairs minister stated that the EU and the UK could reach an agreement on medicine supply for Northern Ireland this month, adding that the EU was “anxious” to move forward unilaterally if the UK does not agree on an approach.

Belarus: Former Belarusian Presidential candidate and opposition leader jailed for 18 years
On 14 December, the government sentenced Sergei Tikhanovsky, the husband of the opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Belarusian Presidential candidate and opposition leader who rallied mass protests against Alexander Lukashenko to 18 years in jail. He was charged with organising mass unrest and inciting social hatred. Following the sentence, Sviatlana via Twitter said: “The dictator publicly takes revenge on his strongest opponents,” adding, “While hiding the political prisoners in closed trials, he hopes to continue repressions in silence. But the whole world watches. We won't stop.”

Arctic: Highest heat temperature recorded in the region, says WMO
On 14 December, The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency stated that the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic, 38C (100F). The WMO, stated that the extreme heat was “more befitting the Mediterranean than the Arctic,” adding that this was the first time the agency has included the Arctic Circle in its archive of extreme weather reports. WMO Secretary-General said: “This new Arctic record is one of a series of observations reported to the WMO archive of Weather and Climate Extremes that sound the alarm bells about our changing climate.”

The Vatican: Officials apologises for taking down LGBTQ resource
On 14 December, a Vatican department apologised for “causing pain to the entire LGBTQ community” after it removed from its website a link to resource material from a Catholic gay rights advocacy group. Following criticism on social media, the website of the Synod of Bishops issued the apology and restored the link. A communications manager of the Synod said, “This brought pain to the entire LGBTQ community, who once again felt left out,” adding, “I feel that I must apologise to all LGBTQ people and to members of the New Ways Ministry for the pain caused.”

Serbia: Protests block roads to protest lithium mine project
On 11 December, environmental protesters blocked roads in Serbia in protests against plans for lithium mining. The protests who have been on the streets for the third consecutive weekend want the government to ensure that there is no possibility of companies starting mining projects arguing that extracting lithium causes huge damage to mined areas.

Hungary: Anti-LGBTQ+ law breaches human rights standards, says Council of Europe’s Venice Commission
On 14 December, the constitutional law experts of the Venice Commission stated that recent amendments to Hungarian legislation related to sex-education programs in schools and the presentation of sexual content in the media “fail to comply with the positive obligation of Hungary to ensure that the educational system provides children with objective and non-biased information on gender identity and sexual orientation.” The commission stated that the amendment adds to establishing a “threatening environment” in which LGBT children can be subject to bullying and harassment, adding that they “leave space only for one-sided and biased teaching, opening doors to stigmatization and discrimination” of LGBT people.

Colombia: Police responsible for “massacre” in 2020, says report
On 13 December, a report published after an independent investigation backed by the mayor of Bogota’s office and the United Nations stated that the Colombian police were responsible for the deaths of 11 protesters during anti-police protests in September 2020. Carlos Negret, a former ombudsman of the South American country who led the investigation, said: “It was a police massacre” adding, “A decisive political and operational leadership, based on rights, was needed at national and local levels to avoid this happening.” The report at the end said: “This investigation concludes that the national police openly abandoned the principles of proportionality.”

About the authors
Joeana Cera Matthews and Keerthana Nambiar are a postgraduate scholar in the Department of International Relations, University of Mysore. Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez are Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS.

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Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2084

NIAS IPRI

The US-Iran War, Week Nine I Escalating Violence in Mali

Review: Five Takeaways of RSF's 2026 Report on Media Freedom

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:

Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:

Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups

CW Review

May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:

Five Takeaways from the RSF 2026 Index

The World This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Nepal’s New “National Commitment” I Japan’s New Defence Posture

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japan’s New Defence Posture:

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2078

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal’s New “National Commitment”

Managing Consensus and Moving ahead towards a New Nepal

TWTW Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2077

Nithin V

The Middle East Crisis and its Fallouts on Hunger and Global Food Supply Network

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis, April 2026

CW Column: Africa This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2076

Anu Maria Joseph

Three years of War in Sudan, DRC-M23 talks in Switzerland and the collapse of the peace agreement in Tigray

Report Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2075

R Preetha

The US-Iran War Fallouts on the Asia Pacific, Energy Security and Supply Chains

Five Takeaways of the UNDP Report, April 2026

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:

Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:

A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad

Special Commentary

April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan

Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2071

NIAS Global Politics Team

Three Years of Civil War in Sudan I The US-Iran War, Week Eight I Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Review of the UNDP Report on Military Escalation in the Middle East I Conflict Weekly Column on Africa

Conflict Weekly Special Edition

April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine

Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions

Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa

Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging China’s Role

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (Jan–Mar 2026):

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (Jan–Mar 2026):

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)

Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)

Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2060

Nanda Kishor M S

India and the Neighbourhood (Jan-Mar 2026)

Continuity, Caution and Calculated assertiveness

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World (Jan-Mar 2026)

Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)

Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)

An Illegitimate Regime’s Consolidation Game

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)

China’s military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Korea’s security challenges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

China’s External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):

Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2053

Anand V

China’s Domestic Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):

The "Two Sessions," Recalibrated growth targets, Technology prioritization, and Military purges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States (Jan-Mar 2026)

Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trump’s World Order

The World This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2051

TWTW Special Edition

TWTW Special Edition, 350th Issue

THE WORLD THIS QUARTER (Jan-Mar 2026)

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Five: Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trump’s Renewed Threats

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 2043

Abhimanyu Solanki

Escalatory Airpower, Hybrid Retaliation, and Regional Security

Reassessing the Pakistan–Afghanistan Confrontation and Its Implications for India

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

R Preetha

Transnational organized crime, Emerging technologies, Global security environment and ‘Diverse threat vectors’

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2041

Aparna A Nair

China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue

Defence, Diplomacy and Public Security

March 2026 | CWA # 2040

Femy Francis

China's Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War

Why Beijing’s support for Iran is rhetoric and muted

March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting

Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?

March 2026 | CWA # 2038

Anu Maria Joseph

Sudan-Chad tensions and the Boko Haram attack in Nigeria's Maiduguri

March 2026 | CWA # 2037

Padmashree Anandhan

Massive drone attacks, Growing energy leverage and Drifting peace efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2036

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Expanding Israeli Military Operations and the Reshaping of Southern Lebanon

March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation

March 2026 | CWA # 2034

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Three

Multi-front Escalation and Economic Fallouts

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:

Five major challenges for the new government

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2032

Global Politics Team

Trump-Xi Meeting I China Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War I China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue I US Annual Threat Assessment 2026 Takeaways

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 2031

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Three | Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes | Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2030

Siddhi Halyur

State power, Entrenched authoritarian rule, Structural inequalities, Gender Constraints, and Restricted civic space in Middle East

Four Takeaways of the Human Rights Watch Report on the Middle East

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2029

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Economic modernization without political liberalization, Legal systems as instruments of political control, Shrinking civic space and Sports Washing

Five Takeaways of the HRW Report 2026 on the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and the UAE)

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2028

Jayasree

Legislative suppression of dissent, Promotion of patriarchal norms, Forced assimilation of minorities and Censorship in China

Four Takeaways of the HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2027

Rebecca Ann Oommen

Rampant armed conflicts and the Erosion of Democracy in Africa

Five Takeaways of HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2026

Manik Dhawan

Significant setback to Human Rights situation in Europe

Four Takeaways of HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2025

Santhosh Guru PR

Alarming rise of Authoritarianism and Autocracy in the Americas

Five Takeaways of Human Rights Watch Report 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War

UNSC Resolution 2817 between “Clear and Unified Message” and “Manifest Injustice”

March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

China’s Two Sessions 2026

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget

March 2026 | CWA # 2022

Padmashree Anandhan

Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2021

Anu Maria Joseph

Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan

March 2026 | CWA # 2020

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals

March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria

Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment

March 2026 | CWA # 2018

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Two

Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2017

Global Politics Team

China’s Two Sessions | The UNSC Resolution on the US-Iran War

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 2016

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Two | Rising Violence in Nigeria | Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 2015

Global Politics Team

The World Today #275, 10 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2014

Global Politics Team

The World Today #274, 09 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2013

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in South Sudan and the US sanctions on Rwanda

Conflict Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine

Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EU’s energy dependence

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Canada’s PM Mark Carney’s India Visit

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026

The Rise of the “New” and the Fall of the “Old”

March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026

Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2008

Global Politics Team

Canadian PM's India Visit I Nepal Elections and its Political Reset

March 2026 | CWA # 2007

Global Politics Team

The World Today #272, 06 March 2026

The World Today

Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2006

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Election 2026, Day One

Peaceful polling, with over 60 per cent turnout

March 2026 | CWA # 2005

Global Politics Team

The World Today #271, 05 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The “Forgotten” South Sudan Conflict

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement

March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modi’s Visit to Israel

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership

March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

German Chancellor’s China Visit

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

R Preetha

Trump’s State of the Union Address

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran

March 2026 | CWA # 2000

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week One

Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 1999

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week One | The Return of Violence to South Sudan

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan

Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover

February 2026 | CWA # 1997

Padmashree Anandhan

Four Years of War in Ukraine

Continuing Uncertainty

February 2026 | CWA # 1996

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Another round of cross-border attacks

March 2026 | CWA # 1995

Global Politics Team

The World Today #269, 03 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 1994

Global Politics Team

The World Today #268, 02 March 2026

The World Today

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 1993

D Suba Chandran

The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan

Balancing Rhetoric, Regional Interests and Global Alignments

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1992

IPRI Team

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes I Fours Years of Ukraine War

Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

Trump’s State of the Union Address | German Chancellor’s China Visit | India’s PM’s Israel Visit

February 2026 | CWA # 1990

Global Politics Team

The World Today #266, 27 February 2026

The World Today

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1989

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1988

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi

Negotiations without a ceasefire or resolution

February 2026 | CWA # 1987

Akshath Kaimal

Continuing militant attacks in Balochistan

Expanding violence, Security-first response and Missing political dialogue in Pakistan

PR Commentary

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

R Preetha

Pakistan’s Central Asia Boost

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity

PR Commentary

February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan

The return of Basant, and what it signifies

February 2026 | CWA # 1984

Global Politics Team

The World Today #265, 26 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1983

Global Politics Team

The World Today #264, 25 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1982

Global Politics Team

The World Today #263, 24 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1981

Global Politics Team

The World Today #261-262, 23 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1980

Global Politics Team

The World Today #259, 20 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1979

Global Politics Team

The World Today #258, 19 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1978

Global Politics Team

The World Today #256, 17 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria

US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency

February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine

The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry

February 2026 | CWA # 1975

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran Negotiations in Geneva

Ambiguous Conclusions and Escalating Fears of Military Action

February 2026 | CWA # 1974

Lekshmi MK

Munich Security Conference 2026:

Europe’s Security Concerns, Defence Consolidation and Transatlantic Recalibration

February 2026 | CWA # 1973

Yesasvi Koganti

The Global AI Impact Summit in New Delhi:

Six Major Takeaways

PR Explainer

December 2025 | CWA # 1972

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan-Taliban Peace Talks

Background, Issues, Challenges and Implications

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26

Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China

Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1969

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan's Climate Change Challenges

Governance Gaps, Adaptation Deficit, and Climate Finance Vulnerability

PR Explainer

November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US

A New opening, or another cycle?

PR Explainer

November 2025 | CWA # 1967

R Preetha

Pakistan and IMF’s Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment

Risks, Reforms and Trajectories

November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan’s Climate and Water Crisis

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1965

Global Politics Team

AI Impact Summit in New Delhi I Munich Security Conference 2026

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1964

IPRI Team

US-Iran & Ukraine Negotiations in Geneva I US Military Deployment in Nigeria

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1963

Global Politics Team

The World Today #255, 16 February 2026

Today in History

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Japan: Sanae Takaichi’s historic win | Honk Kong: Jimmy Lai Sentenced

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

Sanae Takaichi’s historic win in Japan

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1960

Femy Francis

Jimmy Lai sentenced for 20 years in Hong Kong: Who, What, and Why

CEAP

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China

PM Keir Starmer’s visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties

February 2026 | CWA # 1958

Akshath Kaimal

India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways

The focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals

February 2026 | CWA # 1957

R Preetha

The India–US interim trade framework

Tariff recalibration and Energy and Supply Chain realignment

February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

Erosion of arms control, Return of nuclear anxieties, and the New focus on China

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

End of the New START I India–US interim Trade Framework I India-EU Free Trade Agreement I UK PM Keir Starmer’s China visit

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

February 2026 | CWA # 1954

Nishchal Nath Pandey

Nepal Elections 2026: Political Parties, Gen Z Protests and Hope for a New Beginning

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1953

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

Weekly Columns: Conflicts in Africa and the Middle East

CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East

January 2026 | CWA # 1952

Brighty Ann Sarah

US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa

January 2026 | CWA # 1951

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1950

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine: The Trilateral Talks, and the Deadlock over Donetsk & Security Guarantees for Kyiv

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1949

R Preetha

The United States: ICE Crackdowns, Rising Resistance and the Political/Legal pushback

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1948

ICE Crackdowns and Resistance in the US I Trilateral Talks on Ukraine

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

The Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy: Four major takeaways

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026

Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1944

Brighty Ann Sarah

Syria: The State victory over the Syrian Democratic Forces

Conflict Weekly Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

Another major kidnapping in Nigeria and Election announcement in Guinea-Bissau

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation approach and Europe’s defence

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

The War in Gaza: Trump’s Board of Peace and the Challenges to Phase Two

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

Trump’s “Board of Peace” in Gaza I Escalation/De-escalation in Greenland

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation strategy and Europe’s defence

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1938

Continuing Tensions over Greenland

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trump’s intervention

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1936

Brighty Ann Sarah

Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1935

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran | Instability in Nigeria

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1934

Global Politics Team

The US, Greenland and Trump's Claims

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1933

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran, the US Military Intervention in Venezuela and Conflicts in Africa

NIAS Conflict Weekly | The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1932

Global Politics Team